06-04-2009, 09:55
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Analogue Smoker
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Join Date: May 2005
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Thanked 9 Times in 6 Posts
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Re: ATP US Clay Court Championship
Just gonna have a read of this-
Quote:
Those of you who have already read our ante-post preview of the French Open will know we feel that early April is often a good time to catch the bookies napping.
The start of the claycourt season leaves them balancing the weight of recent hardcourt form with previous proven ability on the red dirt.
We'll therefore try to find some value for this week's opening two events of the spring campaign which take place in Casablanca and Houston.
However, punters should be aware of the fact that the clay in the US does not play the same as on the other side of the Atlantic and a look down the list of previous winners helps prove this.
The likes of Mardy Fish, Andy Roddick and even Andre Agassi (despite his status as a former French Open champion) are all players you would hardly have expected to succeed on the European clay, yet the US dirt plays quicker and therefore more like the hardcourts the aforementioned triumverate prefer.
Last year's runner-up James Blake is another to have done well here despite regularly flopping on the Euro clay and he's back for another crack at the title this year as top seed.
However, despite his efforts here, Blake has always found someone else too good and we feel he's short enough at 11/2.
The fact that price makes him the favourite at Sky Bet shows the layers are struggling to know who to side and we feel Jurgen Melzer could be the man to fill the void.
Like Blake, he's a player whose best results have come on the hardcourts in recent years, but he's also taken a shine to this particular tournament.
Again like Blake he's never won in Houston, but he did make the final in 2006 and has reached at least the quarter-finals in his four other visits since 2003.
A run for your money looks assured, particularly when you see the draw has been relatively kind.
Take the 9/1 on offer.
As far as value is concerned, we feel there's some to be had in backing the little-known Maximo Gonzalez.
The Argentine may not be that well known in the grand scheme of things but he certainly knows his way around a claycourt and his seeding of eighth shows he's been doing plenty right on the tour.
So far this season he's already won two Challenger events on the surface, while during the main tour's South American swing he reached the last eight in Buenos Aires where former French Open winner Carlos Moya was among his victims.
Form suggests his 28/1 quote is exactly the sort the layers have left too high, so Gonzalez looks worthy of a small-stakes punt.
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MELZER READY FOR HOUSTON LIFT-OFF: Tennis Betting News - ATP/ WTA Betting and Tips, French Open Betting, Wimbledon, Andy Murray
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ATP US Clay Court Championship
