Australian Open 2009 18th January

[Rafa Nadal]

First Round Draw (Mens)

	COUNTRY	SEED			COUNTRY	SEED
Nadal	Spa	1	v	Rochus	Bel
Serra	Fra		v	Karanusic	Cro
Schwank	Arg		v	Haas	Ger
			v	Tursunov	Rus	29
Gasquet	Fra	24	v	Junqueira	Arg
Spadea	US		v	Istomin	Uzb
Canas	Arg		v	Kiefer	Ger
Hewitt	Aus		v	Gonzalez	Chi	13
Monfils	Fra	12	v	Vassalo-A	Arg
Youzhny	Rus		v	Koubek	Aut
Golubev	KAZ		v	Fognini	Ita
Massu	Chi		v	Almagro	Spa	17
Karlovic	Cro	25	v	Gimeno-Traver	Spa
Volandri	Ita		v	Ancic	Cro
Guccione	Aus		v	Devilder	Fra
Andujar	Spa		v	Simon	Fra	6
Murray	GB	4	v	Pavel	Rom
Gabashvili	Rus		v	Granollers-Pujol	Spa
			v	Ebelthite	Aus
Nishikori	Jpn		v	Melzer	Aut	31
Stepanek	Cze	22	v	Lapentti	Ecu
			v	Ball	Aus
Stakhovsky	Ukr		v	Clement	Fra
Mannarino	Fra		v	Verdasco	Spa	14
Blake	US	9	v
			v	Darcis	Bel
Montanes	Spa		v	Gulbis	Lat
			v	Andreev	Rus	18
Schuettler	Ger	30	v
Hanescu	Rom		v	Hernych	Cze
Ljubicic	Cro		v	Kunitsyn	Rus
Monaco	Arg		v	Tsonga	Fra	5
Roddick	US	7	v
			v	Llodra	Fra
Ferrero	Spa		v	Santoro	Fra
Querrey	US		v	Kohlschreiber	Ger	32
Robredo	Spa	21	v	Reynolds	US
Martin	Spa		v	Troicki	Ser
Bellucci	Brz		v	Lu	Tpe
Gicquel	Fra		v	Nalbandian	Arg	10
Soderling	Swe	16	v	Kendrick	US
Benneteau	Fra		v	Baghdatis	Cyp
Bolelli	Ita		v	Vliegen	Bel
Groth	Aus		v	Fish	US	23
Mathieu	Fra	28	v	Nieminen	Fin
Dent	US		v
Chardy	Fra		v	Daniel	Brz
			v	Djokovic	Ser	3
Del Potro	Arg	8	v	Zverev	Ger
Starace	Ita		v	Tomic	Aus
Muller	Lux		v	F Lopez	Spa	27
Cilic	Cro	19	v	Anderson	SA
Hernandez	Spa		v	Tipsarevic	Ser
			v	Isner	US
Gremelmayr	Ger		v	Ferrer	Spa	11
Wawrinka	Swi	15	v	Minar	Cze
			v	Klein	Aus
Dabul	Arg		v	Petzschner	Ger
Ginepri	US		v	Berdych	Cze	20
Safin	Rus	26	v	Navarro Pastor	Spa
Garcia-Lopez	Spa		v	Calleri	Arg
			v	Moya	Spa
Seppi	Ita		v	Federer	Swi	2

[rcgills]

I've had 0.5pts each way on Pennetta in the women's event @ 300/1 (Sporting Odds). Ranked 13th in the world, but seeded 12th due to Sharapova not competing here. Had an excellent end to last season, and proved she could beat the best, with wins against Venus, Jankovic and Petrova among others, albeit on indoor courts. She's not made the best of starts to this season, but she has at least got quite a few games under her belt, with the Hopman Cup and then another warmup tournament last week. Nice looking draw - Santangelo first round, round 2 would be the winner of two wild cards, then 3rd round (when in theory the seeds start meeting), she could've done much worse than be drawn to play Medina Garrigues. Would be due to play Dementieva in the last 16, but after winning both her warmup tournaments, I'm hopeful Dementieva may have peaked a bit too soon.

The women's event is pretty open now, since Henin retired there's been no true dominant player. There's very little, if anything, between the top 10 players, and there are plenty of dangerous players lurking below. Not sure whether Pennetta will be consistent enough to go all the way, but I think at the price she can give me a run for my money.

[rcgills]

No time for writeups, but for what it's worth, my bets for the first round are:

Men's

Gulbis 3-0 v Montanes @ 1.83 2pts
Kunitsyn v Ljubicic @ 2.625 1.5pts

Women's

Voskoboeva v Szavay @ 2.75 1pt
O'Brien v Niculescu @ 3.5 1pt
Domashowska v Mirza @ 2.8 1.5pts
Cetkovska v Erakovic @ 2.25 2pts
Dellacqua v Hantuchova @ 3.5 2pts
Czink v Cirstea @ 2.2 1pt
Baltacha v Groenefeld @ 3.25 1pt

Small stakes on all of those, as I'm still getting to grips with the new season. All bets with either Bet365, Sporting Odds or Paddy Power.

[Beanie]

Any opinions on the outright market rc/engineer? I've got 6 or 7 free bets at various bookies to use up.

The big 4 are looking a little more frail than usual with a bunch of recent defeats for Fed, Rafa and Djok and Murray never won a slam, altho his recent form is outstanding, and with players like Djok and Nadal having played just a handful of matches this season I think this year could prove to be one of the liveliest yet for the big priced outsiders.

[rcgills]

To be honest I'm the opposite, Beanie, I'm struggling to look beyond the top 4 in the men's event.

Having said that, the Aussie Open does have a tendency to throw up the odd outsider doing well - Baghdatis, Gonzalez and Tsonga spring to mind.

Don't know, may have a look again later, but nothing really grabbed me at first sight. I was more inclined to look at the women's event for outsiders, there are so many players capable of beating anyone on a good day that I think the event is pretty open.

[rcgills]

Have taken a little interest in Del Potro @ 34 and Gulbis @ 126, for 0.5pts each way, two decent dark horses I guess.

[Beanie]

Cheers rc. I'll include the womens too - these are just non-returnable stake things so biggish odds and hopefully a longish run for my money is whats needed. I'm going to print off the draws tonight and have a proper study.

The first guy to catch my eye was Nalbandian - Robredo is the other seed in his section and I think Im right in saying he's been very off colour these past couple of weeks. Nalbandian has been playing well of late and at his best he should be far too good for Roddick. Potentially Djokovic in the quarters who is vulnerable altho not in the strongest section, lost to Niemenen last week mind you and could face him early again.

Could open up nicely for David, who has shown in the masters tournies that he can really build up a lot of momentum in a week, altho at just 27/1 ish at the moment I think I've missed the boat there a little.

Always like backing Gulbis too, at his best a fantastic player. Andreev and Blake are beatable and Tsonga has doubts coming into this. At 125/1ish worth a tenner or so.

Just some thoughts for now anyway...we've got all night

[Beanie]

Great minds on Gulbis then

Del Potro I'll be looking at too - another in good form.

Whats the deal with Gasquet these days...200/1+ for a Slam?

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Whats the deal with Gasquet these days...200/1+ for a Slam?

Good player, but a bit of a head case really, isn't he? Don't think he's got the mental strength to ever really be a contender in the big tournaments.

[Beanie]

Aye no doubts there - I just dont remember him ever being quite that big for any of the slams last year. I might be wrong though. His form isnt dreadful coming into this, 2 semi finals so far and wins over Simon and Tsonga in there. Having said that he has a h2h of 6-0 to turn around against Nadal which doesnt look great.

Monfils is going onto my shortlist too. Another headcase that can beat anyone on his day, and lose to anyone on his day, but I guess thats what you want from the bigger odds shots. Beat Nadal last week which is handy since he is in his quarter, and up until that point he doesnt have a huge amount to beat given that Simon hasn't come back in quite the form he finished the season in.

Ancic might prove to be the stiffest test until the quarters there, on which note I'll probably include him too(500/1 )

[Beanie]

I've changed my mind - it would kill me to have to take the prices on some of these outsiders given the betfair equivalents...Gasquet not much better than 66/1 with the bookies and 200/1 on Betfair as an example.

So anyway, I've slapped a lot of the free punts on Federer at between 9/4 and 5/2. He's still the class in the field, it's just that Murray knows how to beat him, and if its those two in the final then i'll be laying off pronto. Otherwise I don't see too many threats in the draw. As Fed himself says, slams are a different beast.

Go on Woja!

The others...(by the way SportingBet have some cracking prices!)

Mens

David Nalbandian @ 29 with Betfair
Juan Martin Del Potro @ 36 with Betfair
Gael Monfils @ 66/1 with Sportingbet
Ernests Gulbis @ 125/1 with SportingBet
Richard Gasquet @ 190 with Betfair
Mario Ancic @ 500 with Betfair
Kei Nishikori @ 750/1 with Skybet

Womens

Giving the 3rd quarter a complete swerve as Venus and Dementieva look the favs in this tourney for me. Elsewhere I think its well worth taking a few in Ivanovics quarter as she looks like struggling, plus a few others.

Caroline Wozniacki @ 33/1 with SportingBet
Vera Zvonoreva @ 32 with Betfair
Aggie Radwanska @ 80/1 with SportingBet
Dominika Cibulkova @ 125/1 with SportingBet
Anna Chakvetadze @ 190 with Betfair
Amelie Mauresmo @ 200 with Betfair
Daniela Hantuchova @ 200 with Betfair
Agnes Svazay @ 400/1 with SportingBet

Phew.

A run for me money if nowt else. Gonna be a good 2 weeks - gl with your bets folks - I'll be following the match picks

[engineer]

Missed the 1st day action due to lack of time, my only bet is Delacqua to beat Hantuchova @3.25 - 3 pts. Good luck to all...

[engineer]

So, now I browsed the whole thread...

First of all, this time I don't think I'll have bets on the outrights, I didn't even have time to look at the draws...
There are several values lurking at the women's tourney, definitely...
RC's Penetta might well be one of them, I don't mind seeing her at the final too (before that taking care of the Williams, and some more anoying players ).

In fact my favourit here is Dementieva although she really might find herself out of fuel (hope not)

In the ATP side - Murray looks the man, but I don't think he'll handle the pressure. If Nadal wins another Slam except RG I won't bet on tennis anymore. Federrer looks too vulnerable right now, I hope for a come back, but it will be very hard for him. And IMO the value lies with Djokovic again, although his wavering start of the year. If I had to put a bet on the men's outright it would be the Serb @9 and higher.

Might look at the markets more comprehensive after the 1st round.

[engineer]

And Radoslav - posts like these (especially offending other members) won't be welcome!

[engineer]

BTW I watched Nalbandian against Nieminen the other day and he looked pretty impressive (except the end of the 2nd set). If he keeps that form he might well be in the mix...