Tennis 05.05 - 11.05.2008, WTA (Berlin), ATP (Rome)

[Martens]

what a day engeneer?

not a miracle day though in tennis

all my ideas and bets lost

i am lost in open ocean not in any open tennis event

and tonight Murray survived because of this sick argentinian del potro, otherwise andrew should be lost same way as my self

lets see tomorrow

[engineer]

Pity that Vesnina couldn't finish Kirilenko in the 2nd set. The fact that the match was suspended due to darkness was good I reckon, today they start from zero and I hope Vesnina is OK mentally. At the mo Kirilenko could be backed @1.55, but I won't be trading and wait to see what will happen.

[frank69]

Muller - Yan @2.26 stake 5/10

Two players that are not great form but I choose Muller because she prefers this surface. Muller that will play with the help of the public.

[rcgills]

No time for any real write-up today, but my bets are:

Lay Federer 2-0 v Canas @ 1.47 to win 4pts - Canas has given Federer plenty of problems in the past.

Ferrero/Robredo double @ 1.64 - 4pts - Can't see Kiefer testing Ferrero at all, Ferrero hammered him at the Oz Open this year on a surface that should've been more suited to Kiefer. Robredo finding some form now the clay season is here, and Chela, despite reaching the QF at Barcelona, wasn't all that impressive in getting there.

Lay Medina Garrigues v Garbin @ 1.44 to win 6pts - Garbin is certainly no mug on clay, Medina Garrigues maybe slightly tired after a run all the way to the final of Fes last week, I'd make this one closer than the odds suggest.

Castaño to beat Voskoboeva @ 1.91 - both have come through qualifying, but Castaño with the more impressive results, beating the in-form Zakopalova (top seed for qualifying, and semi-finalist in Estoril and Prague) in 3 sets and then 11th seed Makarova in straight sets. Voskoboeva needed 3 sets in both her qualifiers against lower ranked players.

[engineer]

Originally Posted by frank69

Muller - Yan @2.26 stake 5/10

Two players that are not great form but I choose Muller because she prefers this surface. Muller that will play with the help of the public.

I'm on the German also, Frank.
Yan won quite surprisingly yesterday against Parmentier, but the French is really out of sort. Can't see her repeating the same today.

[engineer]

Also with RC on Garbin, but I'll be lowly - I'll just lay M. Garrigues to win 2:0 @1.99 - 4pts

More from me later.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by engineer

I'm on the German also, Frank.
Yan won quite surprisingly yesterday against Parmentier, but the French is really out of sort. Can't see her repeating the same today.

Think you're getting your Yans and your Chans mixed up there, Engineer This is a first round match.

I was actually considering backing Yan at one point this morning. Muller is in pretty poor form, losses on clay to the likes of Shulaeva, Jozami, Olivia Sanchez and Sfar this year, and was hammered 6-0 6-2 by Dushevina in Prague last week.

The only things that put me off were the fact that this is Yan's first match on clay since May 2007, and that Muller is in her home country. Those two facts mean I couldn't bring myself to back Yan as a favourite for this match.

Good luck to both of you with Muller

[rcgills]

One more bet, pretty much out of boredom really so not recommended to follow Super Yankee on a few outsiders I think stand a chance. 2 winners should more or less return my stakes, 3 winners will give a profit.

Patience/Dushevina/Dellacqua/Govortsova/K. Bondarenko

Total staked on that around 1.5pts

[engineer]

Yesterday I just managed to overcome the shock of the Yan/Chan mixing and Muller's awful performance and than Garbin finished me thoroughly. Won the 1st set (my bet had to be OK) and was keeping it quite close in the 3rd when suddenly retired, so no cigar

For today fancy:

Seppi to beat Blake @evens - 3 pts

Petrova to beat Kirilenko @1.83 - 2.5 pts

Horna to beat Acasuso @2.88 - 2 pts

Andreev to beat Monaco @2.14 - 2 pts

Murray @2.04 to beat Wawrinka - 2.5 pts

[engineer]

And several more:

Lisicki to beat Bammer @2.30 - 3pts

Karlovic to beat Starace @2.52 - 1.5 pts

Lay Ferrer @1.24 - liab 2 pts

[Martens]

Originally Posted by engineer

Yesterday I just managed to overcome the shock of the Yan/Chan mixing and Muller's awful performance and than Garbin finished me thoroughly. Won the 1st set (my bet had to be OK) and was keeping it quite close in the 3rd when suddenly retired, so no cigar

For today fancy:

Seppi to beat Blake @evens - 3 pts

Petrova to beat Kirilenko @1.83 - 2.5 pts

Horna to beat Acasuso @2.88 - 2 pts

Andreev to beat Monaco @2.14 - 2 pts

Murray @2.04 to beat Wawrinka - 2.5 pts

you consider the price as high i guess, same idea here, i think andy should trash him in his good day, lets hope is gonna be tonight

other people confusing the surfaces, claiming that "andy is not well adjusted on clay" or whatever, total nonsense, its matter of day and form, all world class players are excellent practicing and prepare their selves to perform in all surfaces

some americans, are just the exception of the law

good luck mate, i am also on murray

[engineer]

Well, well... Nadal is out and I'm quite happy of that to be honest. Awesome performance by Ferrero, although Rafa was struggling with a problem with his leg. But I don't think it had so significant influence on the match.

Now the odds for the outright winner worth reconsidering. The likely one looks Federrer, obviously he's out of the hole and I don't think Djokovic can stop him, especially after what I saw in Monte Carlo. But the price for Fed is slashed to 2.16
I'm looking at the draw now and I do like two players from the other half of it (not Fed and Jok's). Wawrinka @46 and Robredo @75. Also Bolleli @65 worths some interest.
And to be more insolent I'll have a nibble on Andreev @160. Yes, he faces Djokovic today, but he's not without chances and that price looks longish to me.

A part of yesterday's profit goes for the following:

Wawrinka @46 - 1.5 pts

Robredo @75 - 2pts

Bolleli @65 - 1pt

Andreev @160 - 0.75pts

[rcgills]

Good luck with those Engineer, especially Robredo, as he's the one I'm on too.

Bets for today:

Lay Azarenka @ 1.58, liability 2pts - Dulko in excellent form, won Fes last week, don't think she should be this big an outsider

Lay Bartoli @ 2.46, liability 8pts - Szavay has a fantastic 28-5 record on clay for the past year. Bartoli not in the best of form and hard to see Szavay losing this one.

Szavay 2-0 @ 2.8 2pts - as above

Roddick @ 2.12 4pts - don't think Roddick should be such the outsider for this one. Clay obviously not his favourite surface, but he's got a QF and a SF to his name in this tournament in the past. Bolelli in great form, but he had a couple of gruelling matches at the end of the Munich event last week (both the SF and the final went to 3 sets, both included 2 tie-breaks), and I think that might start to catch up with him here.

Lay Stepanek @ 1.54 to win 4pts - Horna has looked in decent shape so far this week, even if Gasquet was awful in the 1st round. Stepanek beat Ferrer last round, excellent result, but Ferrer, like Nadal, was maybe another of those feeling the effects of so much tennis of late. Stepanek can be a bit hit-and-miss, and on that basis I think his price is far too short.

Gonzalez v Almagro > 22.5 games @ 1.833, 4pts - Two players in very good form, Gonzalez leads the H2H 2-0, but both were 7-6 7-5, so very closely matched players. Reckon this one will go to 3 sets, in which case the bet is virtually guaranteed to come in. Even if it's over in 2 sets, something like a 7-6 6-4 would do.

[engineer]

for us RC

A. Bondarenko to beat Kuznetsova @6.0 - 1pt
lay Kuznetsova to win 2:0 @1.63 - liab 2 pts

Speculative bet, as the Russian won quite easily over Castano yesterday and Alona had to work hard to turn over M. Garrigues. But I can't trust Svetlana, especially on clay, moreover the h2h is in Bondarenko's favour, winning exactly on clay last year. It definitely should be a closer game than odds suggest and Bondarenko should take advantage of Svetlana's errors.


Dulko to beat Azarenka @2.48 - 2.5 pts
Don't know why Gisela is outsider again, she's showing great and consistent tennis, won the title in Fes and kept flying with the fine victories over Vaidisova and Wozniacki. She's looking better than ever after the injury and should be capable of outplaying Azarenka also. Yes, the Belarussian is quite solid and leads the h2h, but I don't rate her as a better player. Value is on the Argie at that price!

Kirilenko to beat Jankovic @3.80 - 1.25 pts
Lovely Maria has been surprising me in the last couple of months and I lost some money opposing her. Today at odds against I'll back her, as I see this as a close game and Kirilenko is deffinitely a much better player than Peng who caused Jelena so much troubles yesterday in the 1st set. Their last meeting was won by the Russian and I hope she's able to score another good victory today against an opponent who still has to prove she's at her best.

[engineer]

And I'll go for RC's Szavay 2:0 @2.54 - 1.5 pts

Nothing about the men for now, the games that attract my interest will be played later.