ATP Masters, Monte Carlo 20/27.04.2008

[engineer]

What a tournament is in front of us that week The first big clay-court event and it looks promising with many of the big guns finding their form.

Masters Series Monte Carlo, presented by Rolex: official site of the Masters Series Monte Carlo

[engineer]

The first I like today is Rochus against Haas @2.02 - 2.5 pts

I usually don't back the small Belgian, but he performed well against Federer last week and maybe he'll be having a nice season on clay. Haas had his big time when beating Roddick in USA a couple of months ago and is underperforming since. And that's his first game on the new surface, can't miss that opportunity to oppose the German. The h2h is 3:0 in Haas' favour, but all games have been played on hard, today's the best chance for Rochus to take a point.

[engineer]

Lay Murray @1.53 - liability 1pt..

Going to reluctantly oppose Andy, but I just don't see Lopez as an outsider today. That price is just too good to miss.

[engineer]

Stepanek to beat Soderling @2.40 - 7.5 pts, big bet for me here.

Soderling leads the 2h2 3:1, has won on hard 3 times, but Stepanek has beaten him easily on clay in Hamburg. I watched the final in Memphis this year, Soderling won, but it was a close one and today things can be reversed.
The Czech routed Andreev in Moscow for the DC and should be adapted better for today's clash. For me Stepanek is the favourite today and I'm very happy to see him odd against.

[engineer]

Tipsarevic v Mathieu - over 24.5 games @1.82 - 5 pts

The French is struggling recently, no real impression this year. On the other hand I really like the Serbian and I reckon he's capable of overpowering players like Mathieu every day.
But things may be a bit different today, PHM should try to get together and all I expect is a very, very close affair between these two. And a three setter maybe. So, I'd take that offer in Betfair.

[rcgills]

I'm with you on two of those, Engineer, Rochus and Stepanek. Nothing to add to what you've said on Stepanek. For Haas v Rochus, as you said, Rochus took a set off Federer last week in Estoril, and Haas has lost his last 4 matches on clay, including to Kunitsyn in Houston last week.

Two more for me apart from those two:

Minar to beat Ancic @ 2.625

Minar ran Davydenko very close in Estoril last week, taking the first set off him before eventually going down. Came through qualifying comfortably, including a straight sets win over Benneteau. Ancic hasn't got a bad record on clay, but he's not played a clay tournament since the 2006 French Open.

[rcgills]

Had to post that last post quickly as I just realised the Ancic v Minar game is just about to start any minute now.

The other of the 2 bets I mentioned above:

Volandri 2-0 v Mahut @ 1.75 4pts

Mahut has a pretty poor clay court record, 26-40, and in his first clay court appearance since last year's French Open, he was battered 6-0 6-3 by world no. 146 Gil at Estoril last week. Volandri meanwhile is an out-and-out clay courter, 28-14 for the past year. Rather strangely, bearing in mind Volandri generally struggles on anything other than clay, he also has a 2-0 H2H lead over Mahut, both on hard courts, one in straight sets and the other through a retirement after Volandri had won the first set. Can't see Mahut troubling the Italian here.

Forgot to mention, 2pts on all of the other bets (Stepanek, Rochus and Minar).

[rcgills]

One outright bet as well, Juan Monaco. IMO he's probably in the best quarter of the draw, in that he avoids the big 3 of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. Davydenko is the top seed in that quarter, but Monaco has beaten him before. Almagro will be a danger in the 2nd round, but again, Monaco has beaten him before, and although Almagro battered Monaco last week in Valencia, I think the rest will have done Monaco good having had to travel over from Argentina following Davis Cup duty, and then there's Almagro's state of mind after blowing a 5-2 lead (with 2 breaks) in the deciding set of the Valencia final.

Matched at average odds of 193.38, which seems a pretty generous price to me. 1.5pts on Monaco.

[Martens]

just one bet for me today

is Kohlschreiber to beat Acasuso in straight sets 2-0 @3

no analysis, in my eyes the german is the most skilled here, and he proved that he can perform excellent on all surfaces

good luck

[engineer]

What a terrible way for Stepanek to lose his match. Saved numerous matchpoints in the 2nd set, prevailed in the tiebreak somehow and looked better than Soderling in the beginning of the 3rd set, just to get broken again and having no answers...

I luckily managed to lay a bit @1.88, but still an unpleasant loss that was.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by engineer

What a terrible way for Stepanek to lose his match. Saved numerous matchpoints in the 2nd set, prevailed in the tiebreak somehow and looked better than Soderling in the beginning of the 3rd set, just to get broken again and having no answers...

I luckily managed to lay a bit @1.88, but still an unpleasant loss that was.

I actually laid Soderling for a little bit more when he was 1.02 and serving for the match Decided to let it ride once Stepanek got back on level terms, but you win some you lose some. 2 wins 2 losses for me and a tiny profit.

[engineer]

Originally Posted by rcgills

I actually laid Soderling for a little bit more when he was 1.02 and serving for the match Decided to let it ride once Stepanek got back on level terms, but you win some you lose some. 2 wins 2 losses for me and a tiny profit.

Aye, I had the same situation with Kirilenko last week against Vogele - laid her @1.01, Vogele won the 2nd set, but wasn't able to fight in the 3rd and lost it easily.

Hope we'll nail some of these rather sooner than later.

[rcgills]

Yeah, we'll get them one day Engineer

Good shout with Kohlschreiber, Martens

[Martens]

i got price 4/1 for the german

you know why? because everybody were placing money on the argentinian LOOLL

OK, i was very clever today, but this is tennis, we have to be carefull

i think tomorrow Djokovic to beat Ljubicic in straight sets 2-0
is free money...doesnt return too much though something like 1.4

Ancic vs Nadal

here i think there is a probability of a shock result, i mean a victory of Ancic, but thats theory only, i am not idiot to place money, not on nadal's win either

the croatian "super mario" is a fantastic player, in all surfaces,
nadal is the king of clay, but... for kings there is always the end, as it is for ordinary people

lets see, just a game to watch

[rcgills]

Virtually nothing grabs my attention today, so I'm going with a double just for some interest.

Monaco to beat Lee and Murray to beat Volandri @ 1.85 6pts

Lee has a fairly unimpressive record on clay, and I'd be amazed if he even keeps it close against a player like Monaco. Murray looked fairly impressive yesterday against Lopez, and the last time he met Volandri on clay, he raced into a 5-1 lead before getting the injury that kept him out for a fair amount of last season.

Only other bet I'm considering is Karlovic to beat Grosjean. Much is made of Karlovic having a big serve and not much else, an advantage somewhat reduced when playing on clay, but he doesn't actually have all that bad a record on clay - he's got an ATP title (Houston 2007) to his name and has beaten the likes of Haas (3 times), Davydenko and Robredo on clay. The nagging doubt though is the fact he retired through injury in Estoril last week. Will wait to see some of this in-running before making up my mind, should be able to watch the game and if Karlovic is looking fully fit then I think the 3.15 currently on Betfair looks a decent price.