ATP Masters, Monte Carlo 20/27.04.2008

[Martens]

i watched three matches yesterday from direct+sport

my impression is that Nadal is no longer the king of clay:

he is the OWNER of clay, with 88% first serve, and limited number of unforced errors, the guy sent the message to everybody, that in no circumstances is willing to share his land of clay with anybody..

however, ancic was not serious opponent, a pure crappy, something is wrong with him obviously, he didnt recover full from deseases and injuries

today, Robredo has excellent chances against nalbandian,( watched him partially second set)

my bet of the day is

Murray to beat Djokovic
both players expressed their ambition to become number one of the world, and i am sure both of them,, they can do it

murray can play in top level in all surfaces, as djokovic as well
the difference between the two, is that djoko plays like a mature 26 years old player, while murray is improving steadily his game

overall, murray is more talented than djoko, whats he lacks is the consistence, i hope to see him today in rock solid stamina and beat djokovic in style

lets see...good luck

[engineer]

Hope Murray comes in for us, Martens , although it will be very, very hard.

Looks OK today, with Ferrer doing the biz in two sets, although he got me slightly concerned in the 1st, especially after being broken for a second time. But the Serbian served abysmally and didn't take advantage of the breaks he made.
One's for sure - Nadal will have to run in the quarters, we'll see whether his knees are 100%.

Now, let's see what Fed will do, Monfils just broke him to lead 2:1

[rcgills]

Good call on Andreev, Engineer

[Martens]

andrew murray below expectations

djoko trashed him for fun

the question imo, is, can djoko challenge nadal ?

my answer is : YES no doupt

but under one rule; that djoko will keep his performance at 90% for whole duration of match: NOT to choke, otherwise nadal will punish him

so, this monster djoko will win over nadal as from today till further notice, under specific circumstances

btw, federer was sick once again, but monfils is for circus events, not for tennis

see you

[engineer]

What a set of fixtures we have today

Federrer is odds against in his game vs Nalbandian!

Fcuking ridiculous price for Nadal of 1.18 against Ferrer!

A competitive clash between the two Russians

And what's looking a kind of a mismatch at that stage between Djoko and Querry, but many people found it expensive to oppose the Yank in Monte Carlo and I hope for an interesting game there, not like Djokovic - Murray

[engineer]

Need some info to help me deciding about Fed - Bandy game...

Has anyone watched the Federrer - Davydenko final in Estoril last week? I was away and couldn't. How was Roger performing? It was the closest match-up to today's one.
Did Davydenko's injury give influence to his tennis in the 1st set?

RC ?

[rcgills]

Yes, should hopefully be a good day's tennis

Not decided on my bets yet, going to wait for the handicap/games betting options to come out too, but some early thoughts.

Davydenko v Andreev I fancy to be quite close, possibly a 3-setter. Quite tempted by the 3 set option on Betfair - not much liquidity at the moment, but 2.4 available and could possibly get higher. Overs on the games another option.

Federer v Nalbandian I think I'm going to have to leave alone. Nalbandian was awesome yesterday against Robredo, and has an excellent record against Federer, but I'm not convinced that less than evens on Nalbandian is any value.

Will be looking to back Ferrer in some way against Nadal. Whether that's in the form of a handicap bet, or just laying the 2-0 to Nadal I've not yet decided, but Ferrer is in outstanding form at the moment, I'm hopeful he can keep it close.

Hard to see much of an angle for the Djokovic v Querrey match. Querrey has done amazingly well to get this far, seeing off Moya, Seppi and Gasquet, but can't see him getting anything at all from this one. No value whatsoever in backing Djokovic though, and not even the 2-0 appeals @ 1.32 on Betfair. Will wait and see what the handicap and total games lines are like, might be something of interest in there.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by engineer

Has anyone watched the Federrer - Davydenko final in Estoril last week? I was away and couldn't. How was Roger performing? It was the closest match-up to today's one.
Did Davydenko's injury give influence to his tennis in the 1st set?

RC ?

Sorry, didn't see it myself. Here's the report from the BBC and the ATP site, although to be honest they don't really tell you much

BBC SPORT | Tennis | Federer beats injured Davydenko
Estoril Open News: Read News and Events for Estoril Open Tennis

[engineer]

Thanks RC, not much information really, but a nice picture of Kirilenko

[rcgills]

I saw that picture too, all the male physios must've been cursing their luck that they didn't get to go out there and strap her thigh for her

[engineer]

From what I read I could say that if Davydenko hadn't got injured it would have been hard for Federrer.

Damn, I'm doing my best to find some reasons to back Roger at that price...

Still struggling though

[rcgills]

Reasons already mainly given in my post above, my bets are:

Andreev v Davydenko to go to 3 sets (Betfair) @ 2.4 3pts

Ferrer v Nadal > 19.5 games @ 1.833 4pts

They've met 4 times on clay. Ferrer won the first one (albeit back in 2004), took a set in the 2nd, and in each of the last 2 he kept the first set close (7-5 both times) before getting hammered in the second. I think he's a stronger player now than he was in previous meetings, and if he can take one set to a 7-5 or a tiebreak, a 6-2 (or 6-1 in the case of a tiebreak) in the other set would do to bring this in. Although I actually think he's got a chance of winning a set, so...

Lay Nadal 2-0 @ 1.66 to win 4pts

Djokovic v Querrey < 19.5 games @ 1.833 3pts

They met in this year's Australian Open, and Djokovic battered Querrey 6-3 6-1 6-3. If Querrey couldn't keep it close on a hard court, I really can't see him keeping it close on clay. An excellent run from him this week, but I think it'll end here.

Federer v Nalbandian is a no bet, really can't see anything that stands out as worth backing. Will see how it goes in-running, maybe take something then, but nothing for now.

[engineer]

OK, I'll go for Andreev in the early game and see how it will go.
I'll stake large, but will wait for the first nice laying opportunity as it will be a good game to trade on, I hope.

If it was Almagro - Davy, I'd rather be on the Spaniard, and now it's Andreev, who toppled Almagro. This shouldn't be easy victory for Davydenko.

Lay Davydenko @1.51 - liab 6.25 pts

[engineer]

Asked politely for Andreev most aces @1.50 (lay Davydenko most aces @3.0) and immediately got matched - stake 10 pts

Hope Andreev to repeat his performance from the serve line

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by engineer

I'll stake large, but will wait for the first nice laying opportunity as it will be a good game to trade on, I hope.

Certainly looks that way, it's like women's tennis at the moment