Tennis week 14-20/April

[engineer]

Will try to investigate the coupon more comprehensively today, it's great that tennis is back to Europe and hope for several good winners that week

[engineer]

Morning, RC, I'm on Shuckin also

[rcgills]

Morning Engineer, good luck to both of us then on Schukin

For the USA tournaments, waiting for prices to settle for a few possible bets, but one game I'm definitely on already:

Lay Radwanska 2-0 v Gallovits @ 1.7 to win 4pts
Lay Radwanska v Gallovits @ 1.25 to win 4pts

Gallovits was probably my favourite player of last summer, thanks mainly to her run to the final in Barcelona where she consistently produced wins at high prices. She's been a bit hit-and-miss so far on clay this year, but with a 27-13 record for the past 12 months, she can certainly be considered a threat here. Radwanska has been struggling in her clay matches so far this year. As someone has pointed out on Tennis Insight, 8 of her last 10 matches have gone to 3 sets, including all 3 of her clay court matches - wins v Dulko and Domachowska, defeat to Mauresmo. I definitely fancy Gallovits' chances of nicking a set, and at the price, she's worth a small interest in the outright win.

Others on my shortlist for later are Govortsova, Rodionova, Errani, Strycova, and a very speculative lay of Jankovic (or maybe lay Jankovic 2-0).

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Also interested in Minar to take a set off Davydenko, but not yet been matched on that, will wait to see if I can get a reasonable price.

Laid Davydenko 2-0 @ 1.55, liability 2pts

[engineer]

OK, have put some small punts for the games that start in several minutes:

Lay Haase @1.38 - liab 1pt

Monaco to win 2:0 @1.47 - 5 pts

Monaco to win 1st set 6:1 @12.5 - 0.5pts

[engineer]

Shuckin doesn't seem one to be trusted, but Haase should have some problems on his first game on clay for the year. Hopefully the Russian will punish his errors.

And Eshauer seems to be on a interminable downtrend, struggling to pass the 1st rounds of challengers, so Monaco should be a comfortable winner today.

[engineer]

Monaco is having a tough match against the Austrian and Shuckin broke twice Haase, but immediately got broken himself and should stay in the 2st set now.

In 10 minutes:
Lay Gisquel @1.55 to win 4 pts

Monfils to beat Starace @2.64 2,5 pts - I'll give credits to the French here, overall a better player then Starace and should adapt to the surface easily. If he keeps the good serve may cause the Italian many troubles. Good price in my eyes.

[rcgills]

Few more for this afternoon/evening, from Charleston.

Lay Cornet v Errani @ 1.57, liability 2pts

More of a bet against Cornet than a bet for Errani, this one. Cornet you'd think may be starting to feel the effects of her run to the semis last week at Amelia Island. A 3-set win in just over 2 hours here in the first round over Krajicek (who'd lost 7 in a row prior to that, and who Cornet had beaten 6-2 6-1 in Amelia Island the previous week) suggest she's maybe not in top condition right now.

Rodionova to beat Rezai @ 2.48 2pts

Rezai had a very tough match yesterday, needing nearly 3 hours to see off Sequera, while Rodionova beat Cibulkova through a retirement, having taken the first set. Rodionova leads the H2H 2-0, including one on clay, although it was from 2004.

Lay Srebotnik 2-0 v Strycova @ evens, liability 2pts

Strycova in excellent form at ITF level this year, winning 2 tournaments and finishing runner up in another. Clay seems to be the surface she plays most on, and she's gone reasonably well so far on clay this year, coming through qualifying at Amelia Island before losing to eventual winner Sharapova in the 2nd round, and then coming through her opening two matches here in Charleston in straight sets. Don't think she'll win this, but think she stands a decent chance of nicking a set.

[engineer]

I'm giving up for today to keep what's left in my bank.

Maybe some for the evening in USA, but should have some break from the ATP.

[frank69]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Few more for this afternoon/evening, from Charleston.

Lay Cornet v Errani @ 1.57, liability 2pts

More of a bet against Cornet than a bet for Errani, this one. Cornet you'd think may be starting to feel the effects of her run to the semis last week at Amelia Island. A 3-set win in just over 2 hours here in the first round over Krajicek (who'd lost 7 in a row prior to that, and who Cornet had beaten 6-2 6-1 in Amelia Island the previous week) suggest she's maybe not in top condition right now.

Rodionova to beat Rezai @ 2.48 2pts

Rezai had a very tough match yesterday, needing nearly 3 hours to see off Sequera, while Rodionova beat Cibulkova through a retirement, having taken the first set. Rodionova leads the H2H 2-0, including one on clay, although it was from 2004.

Lay Srebotnik 2-0 v Strycova @ evens, liability 2pts

Strycova in excellent form at ITF level this year, winning 2 tournaments and finishing runner up in another. Clay seems to be the surface she plays most on, and she's gone reasonably well so far on clay this year, coming through qualifying at Amelia Island before losing to eventual winner Sharapova in the 2nd round, and then coming through her opening two matches here in Charleston in straight sets. Don't think she'll win this, but think she stands a decent chance of nicking a set.

Thanks to all for the reception.

Dear rc you are a genius

I have won with betfair. All green

thanks to everibody

[rcgills]

Can I just point out I'm not Frank. Just in case anyone was wondering

[engineer]

You genius tipster, RC

Seriously, another top tipping yesterday, pity that Shukin was so abysmal against Haase and that was the only bet I followed you with.

Today's coupon looks more apposite to me.
Cetkovska and Ani in the shortlist already.

Tempted to lay Almagro and Verdasko, both weren't impressive in the 1st round, if their opponents have the guts to put a good performance the games will be close I reckon. I'll decide later.

[engineer]

In fact only one bet for me in the early games:

Lay Kirilenko @1.59 (missed 1.52 earlier )- liability 4 pts

The players performed very different in the 1st round. Cetkovska was impressive against Kleybanova, who was in ascendant. On the other hand Kirilenko had to work hard against Vogele, showing her lack of mental sturdiness for a consecutive time. The way she lost the 2nd set was indicative - being 5:2 up and serving for the match, (could be layed @1.01), Vogele equalized 5:5, Kirilenko broke againg and immediately got broken, just to lose the tie break easily. She is one of the players that find it more difficult to hold serve than being on the receiving side.
Today she faces much better prepared opponent who should punish each mistake she makes (and she will make many if she keeps performing in the same way). Also, the Russian is concentrated on the doubles, where she and Penetta formed a good (looking) team and I won't be surprised if Kirilenko follows the Italian today with an early exit from the tourney.

[rcgills]

Cheers Engineer. With you on the lay of Kirilenko, she's out to 1.63 now but I still think that's a decent price. Liability of 3pts for me on that one.

Would avoid Ani I'd say, she got battered 6-1 6-0 by Flipkens on clay in November.

Not much time for any real write up on these, but my bets for today so far in addition to Cetkovska:

Gimeno Traver to beat Korolev @ 2.34

Korolev not bad on clay, but G-T is a clay specialist, hasn't even played a match on any other surface in the past year. Home advantage too here in Spain, think he may just edge this one.

Lay Monaco v Garcia Lopez @ 1.45 to win 4pts

Clay not G-L's favourite surface, but Monaco struggled badly yesterday. Nearly 3 hours to get past Eschauer, and he was broken 6 times. Meanwhile, G-L played his 1st round match on Monday, and won through a retirement from Darcis after the first set. Nicely rested player in his home country against a player maybe suffering the effects of 1) a 3-hr match yesterday and 2) travelling back from Argentina after the Davis Cup at the weekend. H2H is also 1-0 to G-L on clay from 2005.

Then one bet which hasn't yet been matched, will post price later if I get a chance once it's matched:

Lay Garbin 2-0 v Mamic

Garbin not in great form of late. Mamic just back from a lengthy lay-off (only her 2nd tournament since 2005), so not sure she can win this one, but think she might nick a set. Mamic had a decent 1st round win against hot prospect and home favourite Larcher De Brito.

That's it for the European ones, will look at the USA games later.

[rcgills]

Good grief, must remember to look at the games the night before in future, some of the early prices matched are ridiculous - Gimeno Traver was matched at 5.7, Kirilenko was matched at 1.25. Seems worth getting in early, asking for an optimistic price and see whether you get it.

Anyway, couple of outright bets I've had too. Not much liquidity, but it's just a case of putting up a price and waiting/hoping to get matched.

In Charleston, have taken Dementieva @ 16. A past runner-up here in 2005, and in pretty decent form this year.

In Houston, have backed Granollers-Pujol @ 36. He's in the bottom half of the draw so avoids some of the big dangers in Blake, Calleri and Fish. Don't think he's got anything to fear from the remaining seeds in his half (Sela, Hernandez), and while Massu or Kunitsyn could be tricky, I think they're beatable.

1.5pts on each of those.