Tennis 11th-16th February ATP (Brazil,Maresilles, Delray Beach);WTA(Antwerp & Chile)

[Wittmann 44]

Busy week next week with events as below

ATP


Marseilles Open 13 (Indoor Hardcourt)


11 au 17 Février 2008 | Retrouvez Novak Djokovic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet à l'Open 13 2008 | Tournoi de tennis ATP

Delray Beach (Outdoor Hardcourt)


YellowTennisBall.com ::

Brazil Open (Claycourt)

Brasil Open 2008

[B]WTA

Antwerp Proximus Dimaond Games (Indoor Hardcourt)

Proximus Diamond Games 2008


Chile Vine del Mar (Clay)

Cachantun Cup

Thoughts , 5 year records and records of the seeds against each other to follow for the 3 men's events

[Wittmann 44]

Preview – Brazil Open

2nd event of the South American clay season. This event switched to clay from hardcourt in 2004 after 3 years as a hardcourt event. I have accordingly only included the last 4 year’s records. This is a weak looking field further complicated by the fact that a number of the players have been on Davis Cup duty during the last week which should be borne in mind especially at the later stages of the event. A number of players are making first starts since Oz (or earlier) - Moya, Volandri, Andreev , Montanes make their first starts since Oz while Strace has been out since October last year

Gustavo Kuerten makes what will probably be an ill advised return – Guga was great in his day but hasn’t played in almost a year (and hasn’t won since February 2007). Can be safely discounted. Coria’s comeback continues but he looks a spent force as well. Moya has never done well here and seems to save his best for Argentina which is next week. There are question marks fitness wise over Massu and Calleri.The Europeans have never done well here and Volandri looks a very weak seed with his dire South American record.

Form players are Cuevas Venturra and Fognini from Vina Del Mar. The first two are in a tricky looking first quarter.

Winners taking part

Massu (2006), Kuertern (2004 & 2002 on hardcourt)

Seeded Players

1.Carlos Moya
2.Nicolas Almagro
3.Igor Andreev
4.Potito Starce
5.Filipo Volandri
6.Agustin Calleri
7.Jose Acasuso
8.Albert Montanes

1st Quarter

Tough looking quarter here – Moya is the top seed but he has despite a very good record in South America a very poor record here in Brazil. Throw in some decent form from the non seeds (Cuevas, Roitman and Ventura) in the quarter and he looks no value at 9/2. Throw in further a gap of 4 weeks since the Oz Open and a first round exit would not be a surprise. Calleri who suffered an injury at Vian Del Mar should have enough to get out of the quarter but for a value punt I would put no one of a dabble on one of the outsiders in this quarter. Better value bottom half for me.

Calleri and Ventura for value

2nd Quarter

This is a brutally weak looking quarter – two wild cards and two qualifiers who should prove no trouble to either Andreev or Acasuso. Would fancy Acasuso to make the semis here even though he did fall apart spectacularly against Cuevas at the WF stage in Chile. He has a great record in South America and Andreev has never done much here. Acasuso was in good form Davis Cup and won the doubles at Vine Del Mar.

Andreev and Acasuso

3rd Quarter

The 8th seed Montanes is in dire form and I would fancy him to struggle even first round against Devilder. He has lost 7 of the last 8 and the sole win in New Zealand was against a local ranked around 800.Like Moya this is his first game since Oz (almost a month) so rustiness will be a problem. Fognini who made the QF in Chile and who had some decent South American Challenge form late last year looks the one to benefit as Devilder not in great form and Vanek has a long running back injury. Guga will be a sentimental facorite but I can’t see any shocks and the improving Belocq might make it akward for Starace who has been out with injuries since October and who never does well here.

Value plays here would be Fogini and Belroq has both seeds look to have major issues over them. Stan James price on Fognini (50/1) will not last

4th Quarter

Almagro starts as favourite with Stan James at a very short looking 7/2 but he will face a tough challenger in Massu first round and he does have a negative record against Volandri who though he hasn’t played any since Oz will have an easy start to warm himself up. Far too short to make any appeal for me although he could well do a Monaco (who started at a similar price).

He is in decent form and should get through to the QF as should Volandri. For value I'd have to go with Volandri much as it pains me to say that.

Selections

Only Stan James prices up currently so these should be checked to see if anything better is out there. Am going to be really boring and go with Acasuso and Calleri again from Vina Del Mar and two small stakes long shots

Advised

0.75 Units Calleri e/w @ 9/1 (Bet 365)
0.75 Units Acasuso e/w @ 10/1 (Stan James)
0.25 Units Berlocq e/w @ 40/1 (Stan James)
0.25 Units Fogini e/w @ 50/1 (Stan James)

[Wittmann 44]

	BRAZIL - 4 YEAR RECORD
		4 YEAR RECORD
		2007	2006	2005	2004
Seed	1st Quarter
1	Moya, Carlos ESP 17	1st	-	-	1st
	Ventura, Santiago ESP 87	-	-	-	-
	Patience, Olivier FRA 108	1st	SF	q2	q
	Brzezicki, Juan Pablo ARG 107	-	-	-	-
	Hernandez, Oscar ESP 58	-	-	1st	1st
	Cuevas, Pablo URU 88	-	-	-	-
	Roitman, Sergio ARG 69	1st	q	-	q1
6	Calleri, Agustin ARG 42	QF	-	QF	Final
	2nd Quarter
3	Andreev, Igor RUS 33	1st	-	-	-
	Qualifier	-	-	-	-
	Luczak, Peter AUS 79	-	-	SF	-
	(WC) Daniel, Marcos Bra 112	1st	1st	q2	q2
	Lapennti, Nicolas URU	-	-	q	1st
	(WC) Bellucci, Thomas BRA	-	-	-	-
	Qualifier	-	-	-	-
7	Acasuso, Jose ARG 65	-	-	1st	SF
	3rd Quarter
8	Montanes, Albert ESP 46	2nd	1st	1st	2nd
	Devilder, Nicolas FRA	2nd	q2	q2	-
	Vanek, Jiri CZE 101	1st	QF	q2	-
	Fognini, Fabio ITA 95	q2	-	q1	-
	(WC) Kuerten, Gustav BRA	2nd	1st	-	Won
	Berlocq, Carlos ARG 85	-	1st	-	-
	Minar, Ivo CZE 103	-	-	-	-
4	Starace, Potito ITA 31	QF	2nd	1st	-
	4th Quarter
5	Volandri, Filippo ITA 40	1st	2nd	1st	2nd
	Qualifier	-	-	-	-
	Coria, Guillermo ARG @105	-	-	-	-
	Qualifier	1st	-	-	-
	Vassallo Arguello, Martin ARG 74	2nd	q	2nd	q1
	Pashanski, Boris SRB 96	-	QF	-	-
	Massu, Nicolas CHI 78	-	Won	-	1st
2	Almagro, Nicolas ESP 28	QF	QF	1st	-

[Wittmann 44]

Brazil - Record of Seeds
Head to Heads on Clay		Moya, Carlos ESP 17	Calleri, Agustin ARG 42	Andreev, Igor RUS 33	Acasuso, Jose ARG 65	Montanes, Albert ESP 46	Starace, Potito ITA 31	Volandri, Filippo ITA 40	Almagro, Nicolas ESP 28		Total H to H		5Year SA Clay
1st Quarter
Moya, Carlos ESP 17		X	2-0	-	2-1	1-1	1-2	4-2	1-1		11-7		17-5
Calleri, Agustin ARG 42		0-2	X	-	4-0	4-1	1-2	0-1	1-0		10-6		17-12
2nd Quarter
Andreev, Igor RUS 33		-	-	X	1-3	2-0	3-0	2-2	1-2		8-7		3-3
Acasuso, Jose ARG 65		1-2	0-4	3-1	X	5-0	0-1	5-1	2-4		16-13		21-10
3rd Quarter
Montanes, Albert ESP 46		1-1	1-4	0-2	0-5	X	3-2	3-4	3-1		11-19		9-12
Starace, Potito ITA 31		2-1	2-1	0-3	1-0	2-3	X	2-1	1-1		10-10		6-8
4th Quarter
Volandri, Filippo ITA 40		2-4	1-0	2-2	1-5	4-3	1-2	X	3-2		14-18		12-9
Almagro, Nicolas ESP 28		1-1	1-1	2-1	4-2	1-3	1-1	2-3	X		12-12		13-8

Read horizontally across - Moya's record against Calleri is 2-0. ATP only. Be aware that only apprxoimately 20% of clay events are played in South America. South American record is ATP only and does not include qualifiers.

[Wittmann 44]

No outright prices up yet as Djokovic’s participation is still in doubt so excuse the vagueness. Given he will make up 25% of the book can hardly blame the bookies.

Preview – Marseilles Open 13

1^st indoor event of the ATP Indoor season after the big Challengers at Wroclaw and Bergamo this and last week. This is an event that has thrown up more than its share of shock winners – last year unseeded Frenchman Simon won it while the previous year wildcard fellow countryman Clement took it. In 2004 unseeded Dominick Hrbaty won it.
If you are looking for probable longshots a few worth considering would be Seppi, Mahut and Benneteau who all went well in Bergamo (Seppi beat Benneteau in the final). Mahut has an excellent record indoors outside the big events but has not managed to really translate to the top level

This is a quality field this week, easily better than the poor fields in Brazil and the US. There are doubts over some of the big guns however – Djokovic had illness issues at the Davis Cup and who knows what Andy Murray will turn up? Murray was probably the indoor player of the year last year and his rank of 3 in the world on the surface is richly desereved.

A number of the seeds are making their first showings since Oz – Murray, Mathieu (injury at Oz), Bagdatis & Ferrero

Younzhy defends his title in Rotterdam next week and Djokovic made the SF there. Murray defends SF points in Memphis next week

Robin Soderling makes a long awaited comeback (August 2007) from injury.

Court is supposedly the slowest of the World Series indoor courts.



Winners taking part

Simon (2007), Clement (2006)

Seeded Players

1.Novak Djokovic
2.Richard Gasquet
3.Mikhail Youznhy
4.Andy Murray
5.Juan Carlos Ferrero
6.Marcos Bagdatis
7.JoWilfred Tsnoga
8.Paul Henry Mathieu

1^st Quarter

5 Frenchmen are bunched in this quarter but the main issue will be is Djokovic going to play or not – if he is and is fit he should be able to get out of what is one of the weaker looking draws. Simon and Mathieu are classic counterpunchers and neither is the most consistent. Seppi won the Bergamo classic this weekend but looks out of his dept here. With the issues over Novak he doesn’t appeal. If he starts he probably feels well enough to play and should get out of the quarter.Llodra is a decent doubles player indoors and despite good start of year form his poor record in singles would put me off him here. Mathieu reluctantly but price would be an issue.

Djokovic and Mathieu (16s and over only)


2^nd Quarter

A fit Murray should get out of this quarter but his fitness or lack of is a difficult question to assess. Murray has won 19 of 21 first and second round ATP ties indoors and if he gets a groove going will be hard to stop. He does face a tricky looking tie against Wawrinka 2nd round if the latter has recovered from his own Oz problems but I would still fancy him to prevail. Grosjean’s best days look past him and despite vociferous home support I can’t see him troubling either Wawrinka or Murray.

Ferrero should make the other QF. Mahut made the SF at Bergamo but has flattered to deceive at the bigger events. I might consider him for the QF if there is a massive price difference.

Murray and Ferrero

3^rd Quarter

This is a tough looking quarter arguably the toughest in my view. Big Ivo is very dangerous indoors although this is one of the slower surfaces so the big serve will probably not be as deadly as usual. Lopez is another tough competitor. Very difficult to see who will exit this quarter with realistically everyone bar Pavel and Clement live contenders. Youznhy might be focused on defending points from Rotterdam next week and without seeing prices its hard to make a call. Too hard to call for me.

4^th Quarter

This is an interesting quarter with the 2 players with the best records (final and sf each) here (Ancic and Soderling) in various stages of recovering from injury so very hard to make a case for either of them. Tsonga will have lots of support but to me his indoor record is poor. I would class Ferrer as unproven (to be kind) indoors so I’d be looking at Nieminen here who made his first Slam QF in Oz and who goes well indoors. Gasquet yet to fully convice either although a QF place at a minimum should not be beyond him.Again price the issue but

He is in decent form and should get through to the QF as should Volandri.

Selections

Waiting for prices and news of Djokovic’s attendance or otherwise.

Will be looking at an e/w shout from the bottom half. Nieminen appeals as do small e/ws on Benneteau and Mathieu (price dependent)

	MARSEILLES - 5 YEAR RECORD
		5 YEAR RECORD
Seed		2007	2006	2005	2004	2003	Indoor W-L '07
	1st Quarter
1	DJOKOVIC Novak	1st	-	-	-	-	11-3
	Qualifier	-	-	-	-	-	n/a
	(WC) GUEZ David	1st	q	q2	-	q1	0-2
	SIMON Gilles	Won	2nd	2nd	-	-	5-2
	LLODRA Michael	1st	-	1st	-	-	3-4
	SEPPI Andreas	2nd	-	-	q1	-	5-3
8	MATHIEU Paul-Henri	-	QF	-	-	-	6-3
	GICQUEL Marc	2nd	-	-	-	q2	n/a
	2nd Quarter
4	MURRAY Andy	-	-	-	-	-	21-4
	Qualifier	-	-	-	-	-	n/a
	WAWRINKA Stanislas	-	-	-	q1	-	4-3
	GROSJEAN Sébastien	-	SF	-	-	2nd	3-2
	MAHUT Nicolas	2nd	-	-	1st	q2	9-4
	Qualifier	-	-	-	-	-	n/a
	LEE Hyung Taik	-	-	-	-	-	2-3
5	FERRERO Juan Carlos	-	-	1st	1st	QF	5-2
	3rd Quarter
6	BAGHDATIS Marcos	Final	1st	-	-	-	11-5
	CLEMENT Arnaud	1st	Won	2nd	SF	-	3-5
	LOPEZ Felicano		1st	SF		1st	6-5
	KARLOVIC Ivo	-	-	2nd	-	-	13-4
	BENNETEAU Julien	QF	-	1st	-	-	11-6
	PAVEL Andrei	-	-	-	1st	-	1-2
	CILIC Marin	-	-	-	-	-	4-2
3	YOUZHNY Mikhail	QF	2nd	-	-	-	11-4
	4th Quarter
7	TSONGA Jo Wilfried	-	-	-	q1	-	2-2
	ANCIC Mario	1st	Final	SF	-	2nd	8-6
	BERRER Michael	-	-	-	-	-	2-3
	Qualifier	-	-	-	-	-	n/a
	NIEMINEN Jarkko	SF	1st	-	2nd	2nd	5-4
	SODERLING Robin	SF	-	-	Final	-	3-1
	FERRER David	2nd	-	-	-	-	3-3
	BOLLELI Simon	-	-	-	-	-	1-3
2	GASQUET Richard	QF	1st	-	-	2nd	4-2

[Wittmann 44]

Not as busy as it will get tomorrow with a number of qualifying games still to be played today

1 Match From Antwerp

Knapp-Dechy

Neither player played well in Paris last week although Dechy at least had the excuse of being exhausted from Fed Cup duty in China. Her match with Peng was a comedy of errors where Peng bottled 6 set points against an opponent clearly fatiguing including moonballing a number of returns at critical moments. Chakevatdze dismantled Dechy in the next round without breaking sweat. Dechy played both games with a heavily strapped thigh which seemed to restrict her somewhat. Knapp was poor in exiting to Fedak but the early price on the Frenchwoman seems too high which seems to suggest that she might not be 100%. Small stakes Knapp.

0.75 Unit Knapp @ 2.34

In the Peng-Wickamayer (up and coming Belgian girl) match , Peng has drifted from 1.50 to 1.86 which suggests that someone knows something. Upset for the 183rd ranked Belgian a definite chance but I’ve missed the boat price wise. One to avoid.

[Wittmann 44]

From Brazil

Devilder-Montanes

Montanes leads the h to h 2-0 (both clay) but looks vulnerable to me here. This is his first match since Oz (won 1 from last 7) and even though Devlider went out at Vina Del Mar first round he is in much better form than when they met in Romania last year. He also won a clay challenger here in Brazil at the tail end of last year and against a player just warming up and with a very poor record against left handers he is just about value to spring a surprise.

0.75 Units Lay Montanes @ 1.45

Fogini-Vanek

Fogini is Volandri lite at the moment. Solid from the back of the court and fairly mobile but a defensive player who relies on others making the mistakes rather than pressing very hard himself. He has been playing a lot in South America over the last few months and should be well acclimiatiesed. Vanek who briefly played with a back brace last season looks to be finished as a competitive force – the Czech has lost the last 7 and although he would normally get the nod against Fognini at a big price like this I think that his recent results and lack of competitive clay time recently make him one to swerve. Can go with the Italian here for medium large stakes. 1 Ball books only.

2 Units Fognini @ 1.46

Pashanski-Vassalo Arquello

Neither man playing well and something untoward is always possible with Vassalo. They share the h to h (both clay) 1 apiece but Pashanski has some decenet Challenge form in Brazil (SF, Final and winner since 2005) and made the QF here at the Costa del Suipe on his sole appearance. His effort in Chile was poor but at the price I will forgive him and take chance on Vassalo not being in the mood.

Lay Vassalo 0.5 Units Risked @ 1.53

[Wittmann 44]

From Delray Beach

Serra-Navarro

This looks one of the bets of day for me – Navarro is on a 7 match losing streak (W2 L11 since the end of September) and one of those defeats was to Serra in Chennai on New Year’s eve where he went down in straight sets. Serra not in the form of 2006 but against a player who has only won twice in 6 first round ATP hardcourt starts (one against a player ranked in the thousands) Serra’s powerful style should see him run out a winner again. Best price of 1.40 compares well with prices of around 1.45 for Chennai when Navarro had slightly better form. Going to be brave and go for a correct score which looks overpriced at Blue Square

1.50 Units Serra 2-0 @ Evens (Blue Square)

Garcia Lopez-Odesnik

Odesnik comes of the conveyor belt of US tennis where they seem to be attempting to clone taller versions of Andy Roddick. The SA born leftie has a monster serve and his major career scalp was against the equally big serving Ljubcic in Montreal where the big Croat pushed the auto destruct button. His ATP all surfaces first round record is a miserable 3-11 (the other two wins being against very limited opposition). Garcia Lopez is the rare beast of being a Spaniard who is as comfortable on hardcourt as clay – his record here in Delray beach is actually very impressive – a SF and QF defeat both of whom were to Delray Beach specialist X-man Malisse. Garcia Lopez went 6-2 on ATP first round hardcourts last year and took out Chela, Karlovic, Massu and Starace in those matches. Looks a cut above Odesnik. I’d make him around 1.55 for this.

1.50 Units Garcia Lopez @ 1.62

Paris

Nieminen-Soderling

Soderling makes a comeback from a 6 month lay off due to a wrist injury and this is a tough opener. Nieminen defends SF points from last year and will be well buoyed by his excellent QF showing in OZ and his earlier final appearance in Adelaide (thanks Jarkko). Soderling a former finalist here is well suited by conditions but this is a massive ask for a player coming in cold and the Finn should be much shorter in my view.

2 Units Nieminen @ 1.46

[engineer]

Monstrous stuff again, Witt

This week seems a good week to make money from tennis

Like the look of Knapp today to beat Dechy and I'm with you with that one - 1pt. Also like Pashanski, but later about him.

Initially thought that Shuai Peng's price (1.82) to beat world no.163 - Yanina Wickmayer was more than great. But in a while lost my enthusiasm, Peng finished the previous year in style, but that year she can't score a victory and doesn't look in good condition also. Her opponent is Belgium, 18-y-o and can't risk to oppose her without knowing what she's got on offer.

So, I'll go for a small treble today:

Serra + Na Li + PHM @2.17 - 1.25pts, bet365

[rcgills]

Am with both of you on Knapp. Saw Dechy's game against Peng last week and she wasn't overly impressive, both players were pretty poor really.

Only other match bet for me today is Koryttseva to beat Castano. Castano has been in terrible form of late, she's 18-32 for her last 50 matches, and her only win so far this season (albeit on hard courts, when she's a clay courter) has been against an injured Safarova. Back on her favourite surface now, but clay is also Koryttseva's preferred surface (career record on clay is 107-42), and she won an ITF event on clay as recently as November - Castano's last tournament on clay was back in June.

I'd have Koryttseva as marginal favourite for this one, as does the Betfair market by the looks of it (Koryttseva currently 1.86, Castano 2.04), but Sporting Odds have got it the other way around, and have Castano as the favourite, with Koryttseva available at evens.

Knapp @ 2.4 3pts
Koryttseva @ 2.0 3pts

Will post this now as that Koryttseva game is due to start soon, will start a new post now for other thoughts.

[rcgills]

For the outrights, I'll join Wittman on Acasuso in Brazil, have got matched on him at a price of 11.83.

In Delray Beach, Xavier Malisse has a fantastic record - defending champion here, having beaten Blake in last year's final, and also won here in 2005, and was runner up in 2006 and 2001. A price of 7.4 on Betfair is maybe just a little bit short for my liking though, especially when he's due a 2nd round meeting with Tommy Haas. I'm going to hold fire on that one for now, and then assuming Malisse gets through against Bobby Reynolds, which he should do, then I'll look at the prices and see whether it looks a better bet to back Malisse outright or simply back him to beat Haas.

In the meantime, Garcia Lopez looks overpriced to me. Has played this tournament twice, making the semis in 2006 (knocking out Agassi along the way) and the quarters in 2007, losing to Malisse both times. Spadea and Querrey the biggest rivals in his quarter, and on his day I think he's perfectly capable of seeing them off. Would then face a potential semi against probably Haas or Malisse, but if he gets that far then should be able to lay off for a nice profit by that stage. Was available at 80 on Betfair but I've just taken what was left of that, but he's available at 100 for those with a Coral account (according to Oddschecker anyway), or 80 at a few other bookies.

Only other one that might interest me in the outrights is Errani in the Vina del Mar event. Not going to back her at the 7.0 currently on offer at Betfair, no liquidity at all there at the moment, nothing at all has been matched on the outrights market, but if I can get a reasonable price on her in the next couple of days I'll take it.

Acasuso to win Brazil @ 11.83 1.5pts
Garcia Lopez to win Delray Beach @ 80 1.5pts

[Wittmann 44]

Preview – Delray Beach

This is an event that has been dominated by a small number US based of players who in recent years have featured strongly in the final shake up. Malisse has made the final 3 times running (winning twice) while Tommy Haas who lives nearby won in 2006 sandwiching Malisse’s two wins. Vince Spadea has a great record here also (3 SFs and a Final in the last 5 years) although he got destroyed in the recent Hawaii Challenger final (3 & 0) which is a poor looking result and his legs might not have it any more.

Conditions are hot and windy and the big servers will go well if they can control their serves.

The event looks fairly open given that Malisse and Haas (unkindly drawn together in the bottom quarter) both have injury issues and Blake was in Austria on a nasty looking claycourt on Davis Cup duty and while the Yanks will try to favour his scheduleing as much as possible he might find the flying time and the long 4 setter against Koubek telling. Pros for him are an easy draw to the SF stage but he has little record here and he is now down to less than two to one. You’re better of backing him match to match if you want to support him.

The Challenger players Levine and Young are both in blistering form on the Challenge circuit and Levine looks like he might be ready to make the step up to the main tour sooner rather than later. Well worth backing to cause opening round shocks.
The seeding in this event is incidentally quite bizarre and I don’t know how some of the seeds were arrived at.

Winners taking part

Malisse (2007 & 2005), Haas (2006)

Seeded Players

1.James Blake
2.Tommy Haas
3.Samuel Querry
4.Dudi Sela
5.Florian Mayer
6.Vince Spadea
7.Victor Hanescu
8.Mardy Fish

1st Quarter

Blake should be a shoo in for the last 8 but the other seed Victor Hanescu who has lost almost twice as many on hardcourt as he has won looks vulnerable. Becker and Kunitsyn are not in good form but if pushed I’d side with the Russian to face Blake at the QF stage (100/1 vs 33/1 against a man who lost 3 & 0 to Bohli last week in Hawaii). Becker defends big SF points from San Jose next week which might also have him distracted somewhat.

2nd Quarter

A weak looking quarter with Fish getting the Racing Post nod e/w. Hard to argue against that but the price looks very skinny now. Sela who is seeded 4 has a tricky opener against Michael Russell and the Israeli is a poor W4 L3 on 1st round ATP starts last year (all against no marks). Ginepri is a basket case and you have to go back to October 2006 to find the last time he even made a QF. The Racing Post as mentioned goes with Fish and the veteran does tend to find his best form in the US hardcourt season. I wouldn’t put anyone of Fish but Powers standout price on Serra of 66/1 is worth taking if even to lay off if he makes a SF

3rd Quarter

Racing Post goes with Querry who was my shout in Adelaide where I backed him at double his best odds currently. No value at that price IMO – Spadea has a very solid record here and made the Challenge Final iN Hawaiii where he did however crash and burn badly. The veteran does like conditions and in an event where the same faces tend to appear again and again he is worth considering. At a monster price is Garcia Lopez who is steadily improving and who made great strides on hardcourt last year. Took him at 100s on Coral last night with a view to laying. Jesse Levine is in solid challenger form. Levine who also goes of at over 100 has been in brilliant Challenger form and I see him springing a surprise against Gilles Muller at a tasty price first round. Spadea also appeals with his record here.

4th Quarter

The fitness of both Malisse and Haas is the great unknown here but with only one making it out of the quarter and serious question marks over both they make no appeal. On the prices Malisse looks the better bet but Haas has a monster 9-3 lead in the h to h that would make me swerve the Belgian even if he did beat him here in 2007 to claim the title. Mayer is woefully out of form in the top 4 of this section and might be vulnerable to average sized Donald Young the US’s answer to Olly Rochus (5 11 right ). Jesse Levine (junior Wimbeldon champion) who also goes of at over 100 has been in brilliant Challenger form and he made 3rd round US Open so worth keeping an eye on. I see him springing a surprise against Gilles Muller at a tasty price first round

Advised Bets


Going for some long shots in an event that is usually predictable but that I feel might throw up a surprise or two this time.

0.25 Units Donald Young @ 28/1 (Bet 365)
0.25 Units Serra e/w @ 66/1 (Powers)
0.25 Units Garcia Lopez e/w @ 100/1 (Corals)
0.50 Units Spadea e/w @ 28/1 (Corals)

fficeffice" />	ffice:smarttags" />DELRAY BEACH - 5 YEAR RECORD
		5 YEAR RECORD
		2007	2006	2005	2004	2003
Seed	1st Quarter
1	2 Blake, James USA 13	Final	-	1st	2nd	-
	18 Kendrick, Robert USA 105	RR	2nd	1st	1st	SF
	(WC) Bowles, Clint	-	-	-	-	-
	17 Capdeville, Paul CHI 102	-	-	-	-	-
	12 Becker, Benjamin GER 84	q	-	-	-	q2
	22 Kunitsyn, Igor RUS 116	RR	1st	-	-	-
	Qualifier	-	-	-	-	-
7	8 Hanescu, Victor ROU 76	-	-	-	-	-
	2nd Quarter
4	7 Sela, Dudi ISR 64	-	-	-	-	-
	11 Russell, Michael USA 82	-	-	-	-	-
	(WC) Ginepri, Robbie	-	1st	-	-	-
	Montcourt, Mathieu	-	-	-	-	-
	Navarro-Pastor, Ivan	-	-	-	-	-
	15 Serra, Florent FRA 92	-	-	-	-	-
	Qualifier	-	-	-	-	-
8	3 Fish, Mardy USA 39	-	1st	-	2nd	Final
	3rd Quarter
6	9 Spadea, Vincent USA 77	SF	SF	SF	Final	2nd
	24 Gremelmayr, Denis GER 119	-	-	-	-	-
	23 Muller, Gilles LUX 117	-	QF	-	-	-
	(WC) Levine, Jessie	RR	-	-	-	q1
	Odesnik, Wayne	-	-	-	1st	1st
	14 Garcia-Lopez, Guillermo ESP 90	QF	SF	-	-	-
	25 Schukin, Yuri RUS 122	-	-	-	-	-
3	6 Querrey, Sam USA 63	RR	-	-	-	-
	4th Quarter
5	5 Mayer, Florian GER 55	QF	-	QF	-	-
	Qualifier	-	-	-	-	-
	16 Young, Donald USA 100	-	-	-	-	-
	Qualifier	-	-	-	-	-
	20 Reynolds, Bobby USA 111	-	1st	-	-	-
	21 Malisse, Xavier BEL 112	Won	Final	Won	1st	-
	13 Hartfield, Diego ARG 89	-	-	-	-	-
2	1 Haas, Tommy GER 12	QF	Won	-	-	-

[Wittmann 44]

Racing Post Previews - Brazil, Delray Beach and Marseilles

Not sure where their Open 13 prices are coming from

Racing Post Preview - ffice:smarttags" />Brazilfficeffice" />

MATCH betting was a minefield for punters in the first clay-court event of the season in Vina del Mar two weeks ago, but the two class acts in the field both made the final and Nicolas Almagro's quality should also shine through in the Brazil Open at Costa do Sauipe.

A competitive field has lined up with seven players in the top 50, but world No. 31 Almagro has more potential than any of them.

The Spaniard burst onto the scene in 2006 when he compiled a 23-10 record on the red dirt and last year was seen as aslight disappointment by some as he failed to build on that.

However, considering that 12 months ago he was among the front-runners in the market for the French Open, it is little wonder that Almagro couldn't quite live to such lofty expectations.

In fact, he consolidated well, winning the title in Valencia for the second time to build on some consistent displays during this Latin American clay-court swing.

And Almagro's much-improved form on hard courts suggests he is still a progressive young player.

There is little to fear in the bottom half of the draw, with Nicolas Massu's poor early-season form suggesting he is a handy player to face in the first round, while Potito Starace is returning from suspension and Filippo Volandri is in desperate form, having won only two of his last nine matches.

Unlike Vina del Mar, which was again dominated by South Americans, conditions at Costa do Sauipe give just as much hope to Europeans – four of the last six finalists were Spanish – which will also encourage Almagro.

The top quarter may prove to be the toughest section with Carlos Moya and Agustin Calleri joined by a host of dangerous unseeded names, and it seems wise to side with a player in the second quarter to join Almagro in thefinal.

Igor Andreev has an obvious chance, but at the prices it is worth siding with Jose Acasuso.

The Argentinian is an infuriating performer at times and again lost to a far lower-ranked player when going well in Vina del Mar, but he is very capable on his day with nine career finals behind him.

Recommendations
N Almagro, 2pts 7-2
J Acasuso, 1pt each-way 12-1

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Racing Post Preview – Marseilles Open 13


ANDY MURRAY did himself no favours in the popularity stakes with his decision to withdraw from Britain's Davis Cup tie in Argentina, but it has probably done his hopes of winning the Open 13 in Marseille this week the world of good and he looks a decent bet at 7-2 to lift his second title of the year.

Murray's decision to leave his team-mates in the mire, without even informing his captain of his decision – he got his agent to do it for him – told of a man single-minded in his desire to establish himself in the top ten without wanting any distractions.

Contrast his attitude to that of Novak Djokovic, who pushed his body to the limit in Serbia's loss to Russia. Having come down with an illness on Friday, Djokovic returned the next day to win the doubles rubber and also played some sublime tennis yesterday against Nikolay Davydenko before he felt too ill to continue.

And that could make all the difference, with a fit and fresh Murray taken to avenge a trio of previous defeats to the Serb.

Murray has already shown his ability to claim titles this year with an excellent win in Doha and, in retrospect, he didn't deserve the stick he received for losing in the first round of the Australian Open to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

The Scot was one of only twoplayers to take a set off Tsonga prior to the final and was unlucky to run into such a dangerous opponent first up.

Djokovic may struggle even to make it as far as a potential last-four showdown against Murray with home hopes Gilles Simonand Paul-Henri Mathieu expected to provide a stern examination of his well-being.

The bottom half looks between Tsonga, Marcos Baghdatis and Richard Gasquet, and while all three have claims, such was the impression made by Tsonga in Melbourne that he gets the nod.

It is a surprise to see Andreas Seppi odds-against for his first-round clash with Michael Llodra.

Llodra began the year in style by winning a title in Adelaide, but he is an infuriatingly inconsistent performer in the singles arena whereas Seppi is getting better and better.

The Italian has a 16-11 record since the start of July and, though he hasn't yet progressed beyond the second round of a tournament this year, his last two losses were to strong opponents in Mikhail Youzhny and Radek Stepanek.

He is ranked 17 places higher than his opponent and is certainly going the right way.

Recommendations
A Murray, 2pts each-way 7-2
J-W Tsonga, 1pt each-way 13-2
A Seppi to bt M Llodra, 3pts 6-5

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Preview Delray beach

ON paper there is a huge gulf between the top two seeds, James Blake and Tommy Haas, and the rest of the field in the Millenium Championship, which starts at Delray Beach today, yet there could still be mileage in opposing both players.

World No. 66 Sam Querrey gets in as third seed to underline the dearth of quality behind Blake and Haas in the draw.

However, Blake looks too short at 2-1 considering he has spent the last week working towards the USA's Davis Cup first-round tie on clay in Austria.

The difficulty of moving from hard courts to clay and back again has been well documented and led to Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray pulling out of their matches, and it would be no surprise if Blake underperformed this week.

Haas's chances are far harder to evaluate considering he hasn't played since the Paris Masters at the end of October after undergoing shoulder surgery.

If the German is fully firing he is certainly a potential champion – he won the title in 2006 – but the surgery has to be a major worry considering Haas's shoulder has given him serious problems before in his career, and bookmakers are taking no chances in quoting him at 4-1.

Haas also faces a serious test as early as the second round against the dual Delray Beach champion Xavier Malisse.

The Belgian was restricted to just five tournaments in 2007, but he has already shown that he retains plenty of ability this season – he reached the last eight in Chennai and led Dmitry Tursunov by two sets in the first round of theAustralian Open before being blown away.

However, that loss suggests that Malisse's injuries may have left him short of stamina for the time being and, even if he defeats Haas, he may be found out later.

That gives the tournament a wide-open look and the two most likely to take advantage appear to be American duo Querrey and Mardy Fish.

Injuries have seen Fish fail to reach the heights he once seemed destined for, but he remains a solid performer on hard courts – since the start of last year he has a 24-16 record on the surface.

He impressed in Melbourne, saying he felt better than ever after a demolition job on Tommy Robredo. And a subsequent four-set loss to Nieminen was no disgrace given that the Finn went on to beat Auckland champion Philipp Kohlschreiber.

Querrey is a progressive force on hard courts and excelled at this time last year. He looks a decent price at 16-1.

Recommendations
M Fish 1pt each-way 10-1
S Querrey 1pt each-way 16-1

[kompressaur]

Sorry forgive my ignorance here but is there any suggested bets i can still get on? All these names look the same to me. I'll take anything just for an interest. I cant see Engineer's treble. thanks

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Will post this now as that Koryttseva game is due to start soon, will start a new post now for other thoughts.

Wrong game, meant the Knapp game was about to start. Still a few hours left until the Koryttseva one.