Tennis 11th-16th February ATP (Brazil,Maresilles, Delray Beach);WTA(Antwerp & Chile)

[Martens]

Ancic to win 2-0 correct score @1.6

this is my only pick, i am very busy today, and i decided to place my big money on a euroleague basket tonight

just few words, i am not affected by ancic performance and win over tsonga, truly i was expecting this result, because tsonga is out of energy,he spent all his energy in australia, and now the tank is empty, he needs a couple of months imo to recover

ancic is back imo big time, the 2007 season is over as nightmare for him, after the desease and the injuries he suffered, his skills is a top five imo, and should finish the russian quite easily

djokovic, baghdatis, and gasquet should all do it, but i am not involved, since my mind is on basket today

good luck

[Wittmann 44]

Horror show yesterday with 1 to finish yet (Fish-Pastor). Took the morning of to regroup.

Delray Beach

Kunitsyn-Miryni

Good win for Kunitysn first round against Becker who has a useful serve. Reward is a very winnable matchup against doubles ace the Beast of Belarus –Miryni has played 4 games (9 sets already) and a fairly incredible 6 had tie breaks. He is a lucky loser and the 3 wins he has had have been against cannon fodder ranked above 300. Miryni has lost 8 of the last 11 and beaten no one of note since Flusing Meadows. The court time will surely be becoming an issue now and Kunitsysn should prevail.

1.50 Units Kunitsyn @ 1.86


Muller-Spadea

I’ve backed Spadea ante post but he looks well underpriced here at less than 1.50. Muller had a useful enough looking win over Levine and has based himself in the US of late where he had been attempting to get himself back on track. Recent Challanger form has been ok and he looks worth a small punt here.

0.50 Units Lay Spadea @ 1.48


Vina Del Mar

Vives – Errani

Small punt on Vives here who had a decent 2007 in what was a fairly inury interrupted season. Took a set of Schiavone recently and has been in good ITF form.

0.75 Units Lay Errani @ 1.56

Pennetta-Johansson

1.20 looks a fair price for the win for Pennetta which would make 1.44 a fair enough price for the staright sets. Took some of Betfairs 1.54 for straight sets win

1.75 Units 2-0 Pennetta @ 1.54

[Wittmann 44]

Brazil

Luczak-Schwank

Luczak one of my few success at the ATP events this week goes of the dog here which looks strange – he went well first round against Marcos Daniel while ANdreev admitted after his defeat to SChwank that he wasn’t physically weel which takes a lot of the gloss of the win. The qualifier has played a lot of tennis at this juncture and the value is with the Aussie.

1.25 Units Luczak @ 2.30

Marseilles

Karlovic-Baghdatis

Big Ivo was back to his best yesterday with an awesome display of serving – 33 aces and not a single bp chance given up. Baghdatis is a better player than Lopez but is prone to go walkabouts. Should be close and with every possibility of at least a tie break the chances of this one going long on games is likely. That option isn’t covered anywhere I have an account with so I had a look at the crosscourts with Sporting Index. Despite the fact that this has a good chance of going to 3 this still looks set low at between 67 and 72. Small buy of crosscourts here. For staking purposes counting as 1.50 Units. This will probably make up at 0 the way my week is going. Big Ivo’s 7 matches against top 50 players in 2007 featured 13 tie breaks!!! (6 in first set) and the average make up in this market was 87 with the highest the maximum 126 and the lowest 60. Downside here looks minimal (says he)

1 Unit Karlovic @ 13/7 (Pinnacle)
0.10 Units Buy Crosscourts @ 72 (Sporting Index)

[engineer]

Well done with the ladies, Witt, and Kunitsin also (how could I miss that bet ). Excellent spot with Erani...
Bondarenko let me and RC down, losing in a terrible way the 1st and the 3rd set...
Ditty was eliminated at last, now it's Bascinsky to be opposed in the next round
Obviously Baghdatis has found his form, breaking Karlovic twice yesterday
And Pironkova was close to the major shock in the WTA world, but couldn't handle the pressure after taking the 1st set.

Hope for a profitable day today

[engineer]

Originally Posted by engineer

Ditty was eliminated at last, now it's Bascinsky to be opposed in the next round

Not so enthusiastic about it now, she faces Hantuchova and is overpriced imo. Hantuchova defeated Wickmayer, but who knows whether what we expected for that game wouldn't come to reality today. Not touching there...


My first bet will be: lay Schnyder 2:0 @1.87 against K.Knapp - liability 2.75 pts
That should be a closer match than the odds suggest...
Knapp scored some good results recently and can take advantage if something doesn't work in Schnyder's game. To be honest I expect the Swiss to win 2:1, but wouldn't risk it to go for correct score. Knapp will take her chances and I like that bet for a start of the day.

[Wittmann 44]

Worst two days betting of my life I’d say with a startlingly bad 2 from 12 in the ATP section . Still some ante post hopes in Spadea and Fognini but I wouldn’t be holding my breath.
Fish winning but dropping a set and one of Ivo’s lowest makes ups in a long time the nail in the coffin last night

1.75 Units Spadea-Querry double @ 1.71 +1.24 Units
1 Unit Seppi @ 24/19 (Pinnacle) -1 Unit
1.25 Units Lopez @ 6/4 (Bet 365) -1.25 Units
2.25 Units Tsnoga @ 4/9 (Sporting Odds) -2.25 Units
1.50 Units Mayer@ 1.90 -1.50 Units
3 Units Fish 2-0 @ 8/15 (Boyle Sports) -3.00 Units
1.50 Units Montanes @ 1.73 -1.50 Units
1.50 Units Kunitsyn @ 1.86 +1.23 Units
0.50 Units Lay Spadea @ 1.48 -0.50 Units
1.25 Units Luczak @ 2.30 -1.25 Units
1 Unit Karlovic @ 13/7 (Pinnacle) -1.00 Units
0.10 Units Buy Crosscourts @ 72 (Sporting Index) -2.40 Units

ATP Staked 16.50 Units
ATP Loss -13.18 Units

ATP Event Staked 51.00 Units
ATP Event Loss -19.84 Units

1.25 Units Govortsova @ 2.40 -1.25 Units
1.75 Units Schynder/Bondarenko double @ 1.98 +1.72 Units
1 Unit Cetskova @ 2.40 -1 Unit
1 Unit Muller @ 2.48 +1.41 Units
0.5 Units Rsked Lay Paremtier @ 1.42 -0.50 Units
0.75 Units Lay Errani @ 1.56 +1.27 Units
1.75 Units 2-0 Pennetta @ 1.54 +0.90 Units

WTA Staked 8.00 Units
WTA Profit +2.55 Units

WTA Event Staked 19.50 Units
WTA Event Profit +2.27 Units

[rcgills]

Ouch What are you going to do, Wittmann, give it a rest for what's left of this week, or try to get some of it back? On the plus side you're going pretty well there in the WTA events.

Nice start to the day there Engineer, as Schnyder drops the first set

[Wittmann 44]

Good stuff Engineer. You’re firing on all cylinders WTA wise recently

Its not pretty RC but these things happen. Don’t feel that my logic was too far off in most of them. Only bet I’d change this week was the Karlovic bet from last night. I had intended to sell the crosscourts at 67 and at the last minute talked myself out of it (and a 1.90 unit profit instead of a 2.40 point loss).

I was reading Bobby Baldwin’s poker book and he makes the point that if you’re down don’t necessarily walk away if you think you’re doing the right thing. Make a target and see can you make that back and then walk away. Anything I can claw back this week will be welcome. Since I don't play poker maybe I shouldn't be taking too much notice from a poker book mind

I made about 20 units profit in Miami last year so things can turn around fairly quickly.

Antwerp

Hantchova-Bacskinsky & Henin-Klebanyova

Hantchova’s blisters weren’t in evidence ina good showing against the big hitting Wikamyer and she gets a very winnable looking game against what must be a very tired Backinsky. The Swiss girl has been on court this week for over 8 and a half hours already and has laboured over a slew of poor looking players. Her only top 50 opponent Govortsova ios woefully out of form and still managed a bp. If Hantchova is in the mood this should be as routine as they come.

Henin looked shaky at times yesterday but she faces another player who has come through the hard way here although with less court time than Bacskinsky. Klebaynova has had more than a few breaks to get here – Svazay was dead on her feet and Bondarenko played with a heavily strapped leg and looked immobile for much of the game. She still scored more points and than Klebanyova and I’d fancy that a suitably chastised Henin will coast this.

2 Units Double Henin 2-0 Hantchova 2-0 @ 1.75 (Sporting Bet)

Arviddson-Li

Li is playing with a strapping at the moment as her keen injury has flared up. Arviddson has taken full advantage of the luckly loser slot and an injury to Chakevatdze to make the QF. This is her 6th match and with both players probably not 100% here it seems to me that whoever wins the first will have a good chance of taking it home in two. Going under with the massive stakes they allow you at Sporting Bet

1.25 Units Under 20.50 Games (Sporting Bet)

Marseilles

Mathieu-Simon

Hoping this one will be on the box as it is a very interesting clash of styles with Mathieu trying to force the pace and Simon relying on a Canas like defensive game from the baseline. It hasn’t worked in the past very well as Mathieu has won all 3 matchups. Mathieu who tends to be a basket case seems in good mental health with 4 tie break wins this week already. He also seems to raise his game for the “local derby” of late – he is 13-4 against fellow Frenchies since 2007 including wins over Simon (*2), Llodra (*2), Gasquet, Grosjean and Monfils. Over the same period Simon is 3-5. The surface suits Simon better but momentum might just be with Mathieu.

1.50 Units Mathieu @ 1.73

Mahut-Murray

Murray suvived a topsy turvy encounter with Wawrinka in the last round and seemed in discomfort afterwards if the post match interview is anything to go by. Mahut survived an epic tussle with JCF despite scoring a point less. The serve was in greta nick (18 aces) and he held his nerve well in the deciding set tb. Fully fit you’d expect Murray’s consistency to overpower Mahut who has never realised his promise but I think that Murray can get frustrated if not 100% and there might be a chink of light for Mahut.

0.25 Units Murray 2-1 @ 4.50
0.75 Units Lay Murray @ 1.31

[Wittmann 44]

Hantchova has already dropped a set so I am well on the way to getting reamed again today. Unless I can turn a profit today I’ll be laving it until next week as I’ve lost a packet this week.

Delray Beach

Spadea-Querry

They’ve shared 1 apiece so far but Spadea looks in better nick and his record here is easily the best of anyone in the last 8 (last 3 exits to the eventual winners) and Querry made tough work of a not particularly in form Garcia Lopez.

1.25 Units Spadea @ 2.18

Reynolds-Nishori

Looks a toss up. Reynolds leads the h to h 1 apeice and has a decent record in Challengers.

1 Unit Reynolds @ 2.24

Brazil

Volandri-Almagro

3-2 to Volandri in the h to h (all clay). Neither man really tested yet and even though Almagro is in better form he has flattered to deceive at the business end of events (7-6 clay QF). Volandri is 16-12 and has won 14 of his last 20 QFs. Almagro’s wins were both in Spain (Valencia) at an event that he traditionally does well in. Volandri’s lack of a serve will mean he never joins the ranks of the genuine dirt ball specialists but he has good movement and is solid enough from the back of the court to get a lot of balls back which could draw the errors from the Spaniard.

1.25 Units Volandri @ 2.50

Lapentti-Schwank

Hoping Schwank to start feeling the effects of a lot of tennis in his legs. Lapennti yet to drop a set (againt modest opposition admittedly).

1.50 Units Lapentti @ 1.91

[Wittmann 44]

Mahut just chokes away a mini break to lose the second set

[engineer]

The value bets seem to have ended that week, nothing stands out for me today...
Some good games expected, but not much of a betting material.
Good luck to everybody who give it a try during the weekend


In fact the price for Knapp against Na Li looks pretty generous ...

[Martens]

there is value engineer

Marseille semis

Baghdatis v Ancic

my pick is baghdatis to win in straight sets -2-0

massive price @2.8

marcos looks fresh and killer minded after he fired his coach
he is giving actually, lessons of very technique and advanced level tennis here
The young man of Morocco, who undertakes baghdatis for this tournament, seems thst he speaks directly to the soul of that strange character marcos is...i hope this guy to continue as coach..

Ancic is one of the players i like most; very reliable, top five material no doupt, but here marcos is the better one

h2h is 3-1 favour of mario, but last one baghdatis won very easily after using the correct tactics, marcos has the game and the tactics to prevail over tall players

the other semi, is open to any result imo

good lack

[Wittmann 44]

Update later in all its horror.

Well done to the Racing Post who tipped the winner in both Brazil and Marseilles .