Tennis Week 4th - 10th February (WTA Paris & Pattya City)

[Wittmann 44]

Two WTA Events this week. NO ATP events this week

WTA Events

Open Gaz de France Paris (Indoor Hard)

http://www.opengazdefrance.com/

Pattya City Thailand (Outdoor Hard)

Welcome to Pattaya Open 2006 Official website

Previews as soon as draw goes up

[engineer]

Being impatient for ladies' tennis, so I'll start with the early games in Pattaya:

Kudryavtseva - Poutchkova. Fair odds in my eyes (2.50 - 1.58), although Alla K. is 22 places higher in the WTA ranking at the mo. She was pathetic last year, I can't predict what she will look like that one. In the Oz Open she gave hard resistance to A. Bondarenko, but lost 2:0. Before that in Hobart she scored a win against M. Adamczak, but then faced S. Mirza and unsurprisingly lost...

Poutchkova was unlucky to face Henin in the 2nd round in Melbourne, but she fought bravely, especially in the 2nd set although losing 2:0. Before that she eliminated the same M. Adamczak. In Hobart she was defeated by V. Zvonareva in the 1st round.

So, reading that form I can see them both performing nearly equal since the start of the year and I can take Kudryavtseva at these odds and hope to do some trading in-running


The second game is Craybas v Savchuk - odds vary time and again but are around 2.05-1.95.
To be honest I like the chances of Craybas much more.
She passed the 1st round in Melbourne easy, than lost from Vesnina, that easy again. Anyway, she is still capable of scoring a win or two.

Her opponent is in awful situation, played quite few matches last year, maybe she was injured, and that year she has two losses - 1:6 1:6 from Mauresmo in Gold Coast and 0:6 1:6 from Radwanska on Aus. Open. Yes, strong opponents, but obviously she's still in trouble. That is enough for me to lay her even against the 13-year older American. Savchuk is decent looking, indeed but...
Odds for Craybas started to drop fast in BF - 1.9 now..., I'll be quick and take her

[Wittmann 44]

From Pattya City

Good stuff Engineer. Can't figure out has Pattaya started or not yet? Think Betfaair need to adjust their clocks.

Czink-Voracova

Neither of these ladies is in brilliant form but Voracova is especially having a torrid time – she has lost all 3 games in 2008 being bageled twice and losing another two games 6-1 which would suggest that she is not serving well at all. The defeats have not been to household names either – she lost last week on carpet to Hredocka (ranked in the mid 200s). Her best tennis seems to be on clay and she boasts an ugly looking record outside on hardcourt . Czink having made the jump to the main tour back in 2006 hit the 70 mark mid year before a horrendous confidence shattering run saw her back on the ITF tour. She has started to move again – winning 3 ITF titles last year (all hardcourt) and the loss to Lisciki in the Oz Open looks ok given the latter’s decent showing subsequently. Cziink doesn’t seem to mind the muggy conditons here in Asia either – she has made 5 WTA QFs (including Pattayain 2006) since 2005 while Voracova has only won two of 11 matches in the heat here.Czink is ranked almost 60 places above Voracova on hardcourt and the pricing looks very very off on this one.

2.25 Units Czink @ 5/6 (Pinnacle)

Zhang-Osterloh

Prices look reversed for me here with Osterloh starting a false favourite. Zhang beat the American veteran at the start of the year in New Zealand qualifying (3 tight looking sets). Osterloh has never played well in Asia – her sole match here in Pattaya was a terrible 2 & 0 defeat here in 2006 to a no mark. Zhang has been steadily boosting her ranking at ITF events and I think conditions will suit her much better here.

1.25 Units Lay Osterloh @ 1.92

[engineer]

Rain delay

[rcgills]

I've had a little bit on Daniilidou @ 3.5 against Azarenka. Daniilidou started the season in fine form, and I don't think she should be such an outsider in this one.

[engineer]

Well, no games in Pattya today, so I'm with you RC on Danilidou. Can't miss the opportunity to oppose that real Bulgarian - Azarenka , especially @1.45.

May try also E. Loit later as she is playing at home after all and price over 4/1 seems quite tasty to me.

[Wittmann 44]

You go Azarenka.

For tomorrow

A Thai double

Pattaya City

Lertcheewakaran-Obziler

Taken a very early price here. This is the very definition of speculative play here – Obziler was trying (very much in vain) to keep Israel afloat last weekend against Russia. She played a singles game on Saturday and then doubles and singles on Sunday – recovery time for a Tuesday morning game in Thailand are minimal. The Israeli is 18 years older than her young thai opponent (who has admittedly almost no experience at this level) but the Israeli cannot be 100% for this. Worth a shout at the price.

Lay Obziler 0.50 Units @ 1.20

Tansanguran-Rodinova

Veteran Tansanguran should be well acclimitaised having played Fed Cup here last week (won 1 and lost 2 tight games). She faces naturalised Russian Rodinova who gained infamy last year in the US by becoming only the second WTA player ever disqualified from a WTA event. Her year ended badly with a number of injuries and illnesses meaning she has only played 7 times since September (W2 , L5). Bar a decent run in China in September (ended with heatstroke) she has underperformed in the heat. Tansanguran beat her in two at this event back in 2003 and even though she was a much better player then I think the veteran with conditions suiting and the crowd behind her should go close.

1.25 Units Tansanguran @ 1.72

[Wittmann 44]

Great stuff guys. Awful looking match - 13 breaks of serve in 28 games

[rcgills]

Yes, I think it's safe to say that was a nice match for trading

Think I'm going to stick to this event for this week, avoiding Pattaya unless there's anything screaming out to be backed - I can't stand events with rain delays

Did consider Loit myself at one point Engineer, but looking at it closer, really couldn't see any justification for backing her. She's 4-1 down in the H2H, she's gone out in the first round of all 3 tournaments she's played this year, and has a pretty poor record in this tournament, 9-11, with 4 of the wins coming in qualifying rounds. Admittedly she's had a tough draw in recent years though, going out to Henin, Mary Pierce and Jankovic in the last 3 years. Good luck if you go with her, I think I'm going to stay clear until tomorrow now.

[rcgills]

Govortsova v Szavay

Szavay seems to be struggling at the start of this season to recapture her form of last season. Her two tournaments so far this year have seen her lose in the first round to players ranked outside the top 100.

2007 saw Govortsova rise from 248 in the rankings to 48th, and while I don't know much else about her, with the doubts over Szavay's form at the start of this season, I think it's well worth opposing Szavay at this kind of price.

Lay Szavay @ 1.27 liability 1pt

Kvitova v Medina Garrigues

Medina Garrigues in decent form so far this year. Has taken sets off of Davenport and Dementieva, and last week beat both Schiavone and Pennetta in straight sets in Italy in the Fed Cup. Has a reasonable record here in Paris, 8-5, and has never lost here to a player ranked below her.

Kvitova appears from her results to be a very promising youngster (still only 17) climbing rapidly up the rankings, with 4 ITF tournament wins and 2 further final appearances last year, seeing her climb from 773 at the end of 2006 to 150 at the end of 2007. However, even towards the end of last year she was still capable of losing in straight sets to the likes of Vongsouthi, world no. 480. Came through qualifying here, beating both Pironkova and Bremond in straight sets. Think this is going to be too much of a step up for her at the moment though, and Medina Garrigues should be able to win this one comfortably.


Medina Garrigues @ 1.615 4pts

[rcgills]

By the way, is anyone else having trouble opening Tennis Insight? Page never opens for me, just keep getting an error message.

[Wittmann 44]

Opening fine for me RC.

Love it when the first big chunky bet of the week goes down in flames as Czink gets spanked 3 & 1 losing 6 games on the bounce second set. Another long week beckons.

From gay Paree

Tu-Garbin

Both women boasting the exact recent form (W3 L7). Garbin leads the very old h to h 2-0 but Tu is ranked nearly 300 spots above her indoors and Garbin is a much better clay courter (her indoor record is a wretched 7-13). On this surface I’d make Tu the jolly or evens at worst.

1.50 Units Tu @ 2.22

Govortosva-Svazay

Nothing to add to RC but Svazay is definitely having sophomore blues. Govortsova’s rise has been almost has meteoric (up to mid 40s from mid 300s) and is worth chancing for an upset. Price on Svazay hardening slightly.

Lay Svazay @ 1.26 (0.50 Units Risked)

Fedak-Knapp

They met last year indoors in Luxembourg where Fedak won in 3. Knapp hasn’t played since Oz while Fedak warmed up in 3 qualifying games without dropping a set. Knapp strained her ankle early this year and lost both matches after (to Bartoli and Dellaqua) and the 3 week gap to this event makes me think all might not be 100%. The price looks like it should be closer.

1.25 Units Risked Lay Knapp @ 1.75

Bondarenko-Petrova

Opposing Petrova with one ball bookies has been a fairly successful ploy for me over the years and one I’m continuing here. She has her usual long list of physical complaints coming in here and IO’m going with a speculative lay.

0.25 Units Risked Lay Petrova @ 1.27

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Opening fine for me RC.

Strange, it's definitely not opening for me Have just changed this week from IE to Firefox, thought that might have something to do with it, but have tried in IE and it won't open there either. Have deleted cookies/cache/history, and that's had no effect either.

I know last week it was showing to me as unavailable for 24 hours due to a change to a new server, and I'm not sure I've managed to connect to it since then. Can you post a link to it, maybe I've got the wrong address or something?

I was also considering opposing Petrova, but the fact she's defending 275 ranking points here as defending champion is just enough to put me off.

[Wittmann 44]

Hi all - we have just switched servers and apparently it takes 24-48 hours for the change to fully take effect. If you still have trouble, try going to neva.com.au/tennis

Should have been clearer - go through the Austrialian link and it opens fine.

[rcgills]

Cheers Wittmann, got it now