Tennis Week 28th Jan - 3rd February (Vina Del Mar)

[Wittmann 44]

One Event trhis week after the hectic Oz Open

ATP Clay at Vine Del Mar (Chile)

Movistar

Full Preview tomorrow afternoon

[rcgills]

3 for me this afternoon/evening:

Luczak to beat Acasuso

Luczak has a pretty decent clay court record, he made 7 clay finals last year (albeit at Challenger level), winning 4 of them. Acasuso won this event the last time he played here (2006), Luczak went out first round last year to Gonzalez after coming through qualifiers, but that was a tough draw, and he managed to take a set off Gonzalez too.

Acasuso hasn't played a clay tournament since losing to Robredo in the final at Sopot in July, and so will have to see whether he takes a while to get back into the swing of things on clay. Luczak rightly the underdog, but has more of a chance than the price would suggest.

Luczak @ 3.2 2pts

Zabaleta to beat Hartfield

Neither player in great form coming into this one. Zabaleta with one SF and two QF appearances to his name here, and I'd just about give him the edge, yet he's currently a slight outsider on Betfair.

Zabaleta @ 2.04 2pts

Roitman to beat Massu

2-1 Massu on the H2H, all on clay and all last year. Roitman won the most recent meeting, and in the first of the 3 meetings (at this same tournament last year), Roitman took the first 6-0, lost the 2nd on a tie-break and then retired hurt, so if anything you could argue he appeared to have had the better of that match too. Massu went on from there to reach the final, losing to Horna.

I'd have this one close to a 50-50, possibly Massu a slight favourite. Don't like backing Roitman as a favourite, but as an underdog here I think he's an excellent price.

Roitman @ 3.25 2pts

[Wittmann 44]

Vina Del Mar Preview

Location and Climate

Vina Del Mar is the first of the clay events in South America on the clay court swing through the continent.

History and Past Winners

This is an event dominated by South Americans – since 2007 6 of the 7 events have been won by South Americans and with only the ever unreliable Verdasco present and probably not very interested it is hard to see outside another winner from the continent.

Winners taking part are Horna (07), Acasuso (06), Gaudio (05), Gonzalez (04 & 02) amd Coria (01). Hometown player Massu has a great record here with two finals in the last two years.

Most of the players competing are badly out of form (Gonzo and Gaudio), carrying injuries (Massu and possibly Horna) or making long delayed comebacks (Coria) and picking a winner here is a minor minefield.

The draw itself looks very lopsided with a soft 2nd and 3rd quarter bookended by tougher looking 1st and 4th quarters. I will be looking for some each way action here.

Draw by Quarters

1st Quarter

On the face of it this looks to me the toughest of the draws with the seeds joined by some very dangerous floaters. I would be surprised however to see either of the seeds go out here – Gonzalez and Calleri both have very dominant records against Horna (5-0 and 6-2 respectively) and Zabaleta’s best days look well past him. Gonzalez has a good record here and a very solid record against all the seeds (16-6). He should make the SF but at 7/2 a best price I can leave alone especially given his poor form of late. Calleri in decent form looks the value shout in this quarter although his mediocre form here a slight concern. He also has an excellent record against all the seeds (bar Gonzo). Horna performed well last year but he could be carrying an injury.

2nd Quarter

This looks on the face of it a very weak quarter – I’m surprised to see Verdasco here. He has done nothing in South America (in 6 events of which the last one was in 2004 he has never been beyond a second round) and I’d have to think this is one for the sponsors as he usually takes a break after Oz the poor dear . With the quarter so weak he should get to the QF but given his record against the seeds here you’d have to fancy that will be the end of his interest. Speaking of interest Coria makes a long awaited comeback after a nightmare collapse in confidence. I’d like to see him achieve some sort of results but given his problems seem to be hanging around (exhibition performances were dire) the fairytale will have to wait. Acasuso should comfortably get out of the quarter.

3rd Quarter

Like the second quarter a wretched looking affair – I don’t know how Hernandez has managed to get a third seeding here. The Spaniard has done nothing of note outside the Challenger circuit (6 losing ATP QF appearances in his career on clay is a pretty mediocre return). A 1-5 record against the other seeds here shows how weak the Spaniard looks. I would think he looks very vulnerable here as Pashanki has a fairly decent record in South American Challengers and made 3 QF appearances in the South American tour of 2006. Vassalo is better than his shady history suggests but Monaco if he turns up should have too much for everyone in this quarter. A Pashkani – Monaco QF but Monaco looks far too short for the title at an event where he has done nothing in the past.

4tH Quarter

This looks a competitive quarter. Massu will have hometown support and a decent record behind him but he suffered a thigh strain in Oz and he faces a player in form (Roitman) in the first round. Roitman won a fairly big Challenger in December in Argentina and this looks a tricky opener. The h to h is 2-1 to Massu but Roitman retired from one and if you are looking for a value e/w the corrupt one might just be worth a punt. Gaudio was wretched in Miami last week (0 & 3 loss) and is rumoured to be carrying an injury. Chela has a very solid record against all the seeds here but has never done it here in Chile. Roitman value to spring a mini surprise for me.

Summary and Recommended Bets

1st Quarter – Calleri
2nd Quarter – Acasuso
3rd Quarter – Monaco
4th Quarter – Roitman

0.75 Units Calleri e/w @ 12/1 (VC Bet)
0.75 Unit Acasuso e/w @ 11/1 (Bet 365)
0.25 Units e/w Roitman @ 40/1 (Bet 365)

[Wittmann 44]

VINA ffice:smarttags" />DEL MAR - 5 YEAR RECORDfficeffice" />
1st Quarter	2007	2006	2005	2004	2003
(1) Fernando Gonzalez	QF	SF	Final	Won	-
Paul Capdeville	RR	1st	-	1st	-
Mariano Zabaleta	RR	-	QF	QF	-
Diego Hartfield	RR	-	-	-	-
Nicolas Devilder	-	-	q1	-	-
Carlos Berlocq	QF	1st	-	q1	-
Luis Horna	Won	1st	-	2nd	1st
(5) Agustin Calleri	-	2nd	QF	-	QF
2nd Quarter
(4) Fernando Verdasco	-	-	-	1st	-
(WC) Hans Podlipnik-Castillo	-	-	-	-	-
Guillermo Coria	-	-	-	-	-
Pablo Cuevas	-	-	-	-	-
Qualifier	-	-	-	-	-
Qualifier	-	-	-	-	-
Peter Luczak	-	-	1st	-	-
(7) Jose Acasuso	-	Won	QF	2nd	2nd
3rd Quarter
(6) Oscar Hernandez	RR	-	1st	1st	q2
Juan-Pablo Brzezicki	-	-	q2	-	-
Boris Pashanski	RR	QF	q	-	-
Qualifier	-	-	-	-	-
Martin Vassallo-Arguello	SF	-	q1	1st	-
Olivier Patience	RR	-	1st	q1	-
Nicolas Lapentti	-	-	1st	1st	-
(3) Juan Monaco	-	1st	1st	q	q1
4th Quarter
(8) Nicolas Massu	Final	Final	-	QF	1st
Sergio Roitman	QF	-	-	-	q
(WC) Gaston Gaudio	RR	2nd	Won	QF	SF
Santiago Ventura	-	2nd	2nd	-	-
(WC) Adrian Garcia	-	1st	1st	2nd	1st
Qualifier	-	-	-	-	-
Fabio Fognini	-	-	-	-	-
(2) Juan Ignacio Chela	-	-	-	1st	-

[Wittmann 44]

Head to Head Records of Seedsfficeffice" />
CLAY	(1) Fernando Gonzalez	(5) Agustin Calleri		(4) Fernando Verdasco	(7) Jose Acasuso		(6) Oscar Hernandez	(3) Juan Monaco		(8) Nicolas Massu	(2) Juan Ignacio Chela		TOTAL
1st Quarter
(1) Fernando Gonzalez	X	3-1		1-1	5-1		1-0	1-0		3-2	2-1		16-6
(5) Agustin Calleri	1-3	X		2-1	4-0		2-0	1-0		2-1	9-3		21-8
2nd Quarter
(4) Fernando Verdasco	1-1	1-2		X	0-1		0-1	0-3		2-2	2-3		6-13
(7) Jose Acasuso	1-5	1-0		1-0	X		1-0	3-0		2-3	1-1		10-9
3rd Quarter
(6) Oscar Hernandez	0-1	0-2		1-0	0-1		X	-		-	0-1		1-5
(3) Juan Monaco	0-1	0-1		3-0	0-3		-	X		2-2	3-2		8-9
4th Quarter
(8) Nicolas Massu	2-3	1-2		2-2	3-2		-	2-2		X	1-3		11-14
(2) Juan Ignacio Chela	1-2	3-9		3-2	1-1		1-0	2-3		3-1	X		14-18

[Wittmann 44]

The chart above should be read horizontally i.e Gonzalez leads Calleri 3-1 and has a 16-6 record overall against the other seeded players

[Martens]

Gaudio v Ventura

Coria v Cuevas

two legends of the past here, gaudio and coria, both considered as outsiders by bookies, what do you think? any miracle come back by one of the two? coria suffering the well known syndrom, the double fault syndrom, can he overpass it?

[Wittmann 44]

Lots of heavy odds on favorites today but I’m having serious problems with the idea of trusting the likes of Breziki and Gaudio at odds against. I missed the boat on Roitman against Massu at 3.25 – the odds line has shifted quite a bit here and I don’t fancy the Argentine at 2.60 odd.

Acasuso-Luczak

Only 1 bet for me and that is in the Acasuso match. Luczak is a decent clay courter but he hasn’t done much against the cream of the crop. Acasuso goes well here – a winner in 2006 and he went out to the winner in 2005 and 2002. The Argentine can throw the towel in if things aren’t going his way but after an anti climatic opening (and some tough draws) to 2008 he should be fairly motivated here to go well. Luczak bar a decent showing in Brazil in 2005 hasn’t done much in South America. He has pushed the likes of Moya and Gonzo to three but seems to consistently fall short at the final hurdle.

1.75 Units Acasuso @ 1.45

[engineer]

Great stuff there, Witt with all that info

Considering the draw,the stats and the form since the start of the year I'll go for both them Argies for outright winners - Monaco @4.10 and Calleri @14 - Betfair. In fact can't see anybody else winning that tourney so wouldn't even bother to lay them later.

[Wittmann 44]

Racing post Preview

IT'S a big day for the clay-court merchants as, after a five-month wait, the ATP Tour returns to the red dirt for the Movistar Open at Vina del Mar, and that means it would be unwise to look beyond the established dirtballers when picking out the winner.

Since the tournament moved to its current home from Santiago in 2001, 13 out of 14 finalists were from South America and all of the last eight were among the top five seeds.

And each of the last ten were aged between 23 and 27, pointing to players at the peak of their careers.

That makes drawing up a short-list of potential winners a fairly straightforward business, although there are a couple of fascinating floaters thrown into the mix in the shape of 2001 finalists Guillermo Coria and Gaston Gaudio.

Coria appears on the full tour for the first time since the US Open in 2006, when he lost in the first round and was incapable of serving. Some planned time away from the game followed to rebuild his shattered confidence, but subsequent attempts at a comeback have been stalled by injury and he lost all three of his matches at Challenger level last year.
Gaudio also dropped down to the Challenger circuit last year, with modest results, and appears for the first time since picking up an ankle injury in September. He actually played last week (and lost 0 & 3)

The pair are rightly outsiders for their openers yet bookmakers are giving little away about either player in the outright market and punters should certainly ignore the chances of a fairytale.

Top seed Fernando Gonzalezand Juan Monaco are the pair to focus on and they are the obvious market leaders.

Gonzalez has a terrific record in his home country, having won the title twice in 2002 and 2004, since when he has lost in the final to Gaudio and the semi-finals to Nicolas Massu in a three sets.

The exception was last year, when he suffered a last-eight loss to Albert Montanes, but that was understandable as he had just reached the final of the Australian Open and wouldn't have played in any other event but this.

Gonzalez might not be in quite the same form now, but he did enough in Melbourne to suggest he isn't far off and he is the class act in the draw, having also made the final of the Rome Masters on the red dirt last year. At 4-1, he is also very backable.

Monaco disputes favouritism with Gonzalez, which underlines his rise in the last 12 months with a trio of clay-court titles.
The Argentinian should make the last four, but things will get extremely tough after that with Nicolas Massu or Juan IgnacioChela likely to provide the opposition, and at the prices it is worth siding with Massu, another who has a magnificent record in front of his home fans and has made the last two finals.

Recommendations

F Gonzalez, 3pts each-way 4-1
N Massu, 1pt each-way 12-1

[Wittmann 44]

Acasuso wins fairly easily

1.75 Units Acasuso @ 1.45 +0.75 Units

ATP Staked 1.75 Units
ATP Profit +0.75 Units

Another trappy looking day tomorrow. Only one of the dogs has barked today so far but much of the card tomorrow has favorties with question marks over them IMO so hard to ascertain any real value again. Will be dog backing tomorrow. Am also mulling over Chela who looks a great price but his record here stinks very badly.


Devilder-Berlocq

Both players had a solid 2007 on the Challenger circuit and while Belocq hasn’t made the grade at ATP level yet he is a worthy favourite here given that he has been mixing with the big boys and has a few decent scalps. Devilder has treaded water over 2007 but he won in Brazil recently in a big Challenger and followed up with a QF in Uruguay. Berlocq should do it but I’d want a lot more than 1.48 on a player who has lost to the likes of Silva, Gil and Cuevas.

0.50 Units Risked Lay Berlocq @ 1.49

Capdeville-Gonzalez

Match between two fellow countryment and I’m having a very very speculative play against Gonzo who seems in a mini slump. He cited various injuries in Oz to explain his poor showing and while Capdeville is more comfortable on hardcourt he might be able to capitalise enough on Gonzo’s errors to cause some problems at a minimum. 1 Ball books only.

0.50 Units Capdeville @ 4/1 (Coral)

Will be covering Gonxo 2-1 when the markets crystallise on Betfair to the tune of 0.25 Units

[Wittmann 44]

Just one more from Chile

Pashankski-Pujol

Pashanski has hovered around the 100 mark for the last 18 months having briefly made the top 75 in early 2006 before injury problems dragged him backwards. He is however a solid performer at the Challenger level which is the level where many of the players at Vina Del Mar currently reside including his opponent Pujol. Pujol has the benefit of playing qualification and this is Pashanski’s first outing of the year on clay but looking at his past performances after Oz (on clay) he has made a challenger QF (07) won a challenger (06). He beat Pujol on clay back in 2006 (straight sets). I’d make this a 50:50 game.

1.25 Units Lay Pujol @ 1.78

Incidentally both Calleri and Chela are drifting - Calleri from 1.62 to 1.75 and from 1.45 to 1.52 respectively. Smallish volumes admittedly.

[rcgills]

I'm with you on Pashanski, Wittmann, I'd agree it looks pretty much 50-50, so the value with Pashanski.

Pashanski @ 2.28 1.5pts

Have also gone with Adrian Garcia against David Marrero due to some strange prices on Betfair. Managed to get matched laying Marrero at 1.53 and backing Garcia at 2.9 this morning. Marrero is now out to a more realistic 1.81 to back. Marrero has started the new year in good form, coming through qualifying to reach the final of a challenger event in Chile 2 weeks ago, where he lost to Ramirez-Hidalgo (having beaten Garcia in 3 sets in the 2nd round), then coming through qualifying for this Vina del Mar event, including gaining his revenge on Ramirez-Hidalgo.

This isn't some up-and-coming youngster we're talking about though, he's 27 years old and never been ranked higher than 265th in the world (currently 289th), seems he's simply going through a decent spell of form. Garcia is ranked 76 places higher (nowhere near his peak of no.103 in the world back in 2004).

With home advantage for Garcia (although to be fair it didn't do him much good when losing to Marrero 2 weeks ago), I fancy Garcia to just shade this one. Not sure I'd take him at the prices currently available, but might be worth trying to persuade someone to match a decent price on Betfair still.

Lay Marrero @ 1.53 liability 0.4pts
Back Garcia @ 2.9 1pt

[Viktor]

Horna over Calleri, @2,63, Pinnacle, 4/10

I have to say that I don't fully understand these odds. It's true and fair to mention that Calleri already played some very good tennis this year and it should be some proof of his actual form and he even defeated just Horna couple of days ago at AO 3-1. But this is clay and Horna is definitelly only claycourter and very strong claycourter at the same time. Moreover, there are some interesting facts. Horna won last 2 H2H on clay and won this tournament last year. Good luck

[Wittmann 44]

Have backed Gonzo 2-1 @ 4.30 0.25 Units