Tenns 6th - 13th Jan (ATP Sydney & Auckland, WTA Sydney & Hobart)

[Wittnann 45]

4 events all down under all hardcourt.

Having PC problems at home so no previews.

Sydney Medibank (ATP and WTA)



Auckland Heineken Open (ATP)



Hobart (WTA)


Very weak fields in Hobart the big guns going for the cash iN Sydeney.

[rcgills]

Few that caught my eye for tonight/tomorrow. Not sure I'd have Lopez as the outsider against Verdasco, I'd probably just have him as a slight favourite, leads the H2H 2-1, and his 2 wins were on hard court (1 indoors), Verdasco's win was on clay.

Lopez @ 2.24 2pts

Can see why Querrey is favourite against Mayer, but not why he's such a short price. I don't think Mayer is without a chance in this one, and certainly more of a chance than the price would suggest.

Mayer @ 2.8 1pt

Lastly, one in the womens event, Fedak has made a decent start to the season, beat Szavay last week in the Gold Coast event, and has beaten Garbin and Dechy (albeit the latter through retirement) in qualifying here. May be slight value in backing here her against Peer.

Fedak @ 5.5 1pt

[Wittnann 45]

Auckland

Auckland is a slowish Rebound Ace court so the big servers service advantage won’t be as pronounced as last week in Adelaide. Conditions tend to be windy as well which will further lessen service advantage. Consistency on serve and from the baseline the key here.

For tonight/tomorrow

Sela-Benneteau

Sela went out first round last week against Hewitt but should find this more to his liking. The Israeli won 3 hardcourt challengers last year and took Safin to 5 sets in the Oz Open. He is ranked above the Frenchman in both general ratings and significantly above on hardcourt. Benneteau is a far better player indoors and Sela looks a value play here.

1.25 Units Sela @ 2.40

Rochus-Berrer

Early exits in Doha for both men mean they should have good prep time here. Ollie Rochus has a very solid record here in New Zealand – (SF 06, final 05) and tends to go well against lefties like Berrer (15-6 since 2006 with two of the defeats to Nadal). Berrer’s main weapon is a big serve which conditions might not favour too much here. Olly in 3.

1.50 Units Rochus @ 1.76

Sydney (ATP)

The old surface has been replaced by a surface like that in Adelaide where the big servers tended to go well last week so similar results might be on the cards.

Grosjean-Luzcak

Luczak is that rare beast – an Aussie more comfortable on clay than hardcourt. He has however never done anything at home and nothing at this event. Neither has Grosjean after a SF here in 2001 – 3 first round exits since then. He was dire last week getting broken 7 times by Spadea but looking at Luczak’s record he has beaten almost no one of note on this surface in a long long time.

1.50 Units Grosjean @ 1.64

Lopez-Verdasco

This looks a 50 : 50 to me and Lopez leads the h to h 2-1 which makes the odds against on the big server appeal. French Open champion Albert Costa is Lopez's new coach.

1.25 Units Lopez @ 2.24

Andreev-Gasquet

Slightly speculative play against Gasquet who withdrew last week from Adelaide with a knee problem. Andreev was brutal in Doha getting a hiding of Johansson but he does lead the h to h 3-1 and with one eye on Oz Open if things get tight the Frenchman might not try to hard if the Russian can put him under pressure.

0.50 Units Andreev @ 3.35

[Viktor]

Wittnann 45,

thanks for valuable infos and views. I'll try to add another one.

I have to try Juan Monaco in the match against T. Johansson. Monaco had fantastic last season and proved the potential to play even on hard. Moreover, as Wittnann said, this is kind of slower hard which is advantage for him. Monaco is highly talneted player and even due to age difference with much better movement than Johansson. Monaco started on this tournament last year and with qualies won 5 matches here, so he definitelly knows these courts good.
Johansson started in Doha last week and after good wins over Andreev and Berrer was kicked by Murray(0-6 in last set). This is first H2H match between these two and personally I can't neglect @2,29 by PinnacleSports for such a strong tennis player on the tournament and surface where he know how to win. Good luck

[rcgills]

Nice first post, Viktor, and welcome to TDP

[engineer]

Missed today's action, but I got lucky with that because I didn't expected some results.

So, for some interest now I'm taking O. Rochus in-running at 1.90, 2nd game of the second set, he just broke Berrer and should battle back to win that match.

Welcome to TDP, Victor, good luck with your bets

[Wittmann 44]

Nice post Victor. I'll add my welcome

[engineer]

Went also for some outright winners (to be layed later):

H.M. Del Potro and PHM in Sydney - they face each other in the first round and whoever beats I think he won't have big problems to make it to the 1/2 finals (especially after Blake got beaten that night).
Mathieu is priced 22 and Del Potro is priced 38 at the mo.


In Auckland I'll be on Marin Cilic, not much of a liquidity yet, I wanted 40/1, maybe I'll be biting my arse later, but that's the fair price for me.

In my eyes F. Penetta looks the most likely winner in Hobart, but I'll wait for some odds there.

[Wittmann 44]

Nice shout with Mayer RC. Looked at it but he's in such crap form I swerved.

[Wittmann 44]

Good start again with 3 from 5. Sela beat Benneteau even though livescore is saying differently.

1.25 Units Sela @ 2.40 +1.66 Units
1.50 Units Rochus @ 1.76 +1.08 Units
1.50 Units Grosjean @ 1.64 +0.91 Units
1.25 Units Lopez @ 2.24 -1.25 Units
0.50 Units Andreev @ 3.35 -0.50 Units

ATP Staked 6 Units
ATP Profit +1.90 Units

[engineer]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Good start again with 3 from 5. Sela beat Benneteau even though livescore is saying differently.

From my favourite - xscores:
04:15 Fin ATP-S NZL-AUC R32 SELA D. (ISR) BENNETEAU J. (FRA) 4-6 6-7 0-2

Ha, indeed, very strange really, but that's not the first time livescore sites make serious mistakes.
Anyway, inevitable I guess...

Well done, Witt and RC

[rcgills]

Even the tournament's official site doesn't seem too sure who's won. On their results page it gives it to Sela, but if you click on the Live Scores link from there, and then go to the Today's results section of the window which opens, there they give it to Benneteau

[Wittmann 44]

Betfair paid on Sela.

[Wittmann 44]

Well they had this morning. Account debited now .

When the official site can't get it right

[rcgills]

Strange stuff there Wittmann

Three for me tomorrow, all at odds against, no time to write much, just think they're all overpriced:

Srebotnik to beat Bammer @ 2.625 2pts
Hantuchova to beat Vaidisova @ 2.2 2pts
Olaru to beat Zvonareva @ 6 1pt