Tennis 30th Dec - 7th Jan (ATP Chennai, Doha and Adelaide ; WTA Auckland & Gold Coast

[Wittnann 45]

Next Generation Adelaide

$465K hard-court event. This looks to have the weakest field of the three men’s events taking place this year with not a single player from the top 20 taking place and no previous winner since 2001 taking place. 3 players dominate the betting (Hewitt, Ancic and Stepanek) at very short odds against which makes me sense there might be each way value down the field given the fact that some relatively unheralded players have done well here in the past. Big servers have typically done well here which makes me swerve the market leader Hewitt as well.

There have been some fairly strange finalists here in the past – Guccione made the final last year and Serra won in 2006. Being the first event of the year excluding Hopman the potential for upsets is probably greater than normal. In 2007 a new round robin format was introduced which thankfully has been abandoned in favour of a straight 32 player elimination.

The court has been relaid to play quite similar to the Rebound Ace court in Sydney. It should then in theory favour the big hitters which in serving terms include Ancic, Del Potro, Guccione, Querry and Tsonga. Last year Johansson, Del Potro and Guccione all made the SF.


Seeded Players

1.Lleyton Hewitt (top)
2.Paul Henri Mathieu (bottom)
3.Jarkoo Nieminen (top)
4.Gilles Simon (bottom)
5.Radek Stepanek (bottom)
6.Jo Wilfred Tsonga (top)
7.Juan Martin Del Potro (bottom)
8.Sebastien Grosjean (top)

Previous Winners Taking Part

Lleyton Hewitt 1998 and 2000

The Draw – Top Half

The top ½ of the draw looks significantly weaker than the bottom half which in addition to the seeds has a number of dangerous floaters like Querry and Guccione who if they bring their service game will cause problems. Hewitt has done very little here for a long time has the five year record shows but he was showing some signs of life last year after seemingly settling down to domestic bliss. On the pro side he leads other seeds Nieminen 4-0 (most close enough though), Grosjean 6-3 and Ancic 1-0 in the h to h but he is points wise a fair way of the top 10 (even breaking the top 15 will be hard work) and at short odds is no appeal. I also feel that his best years are behind him and while he is still probably game , his lack of a killer serve will see him falter against power players. Nieminen although very inconsistent last year finished the season well with a final in Basle and has decent form here (QF and SF) so for value I would support him e/w in this quarter especially since his best price is double that of Tsongas who has to face Hewitt.

I’m plumping for a Hewitt – Nieminen SF here but the Finn the better value.

The Draw – Bottom Half

The bottom half looks a very tough proposition with a lot of players of similar ability and form bunched together – the big servers are all lumped here and Ancic will cause problems for the seeds as could Guccione and Querry. Simon looks vulnerable as hardcourt doesn’t suit his return game IMO and his record down under is wretched. Ancic has the game to go well here but he has done nothing here in two showings and at odds against I can leave alone. Del Potro made the SF here last year with an easy draw but that was a high point in a season affected by injury. The surface should however suit his game. Stepanek seems to have wilted after a great comeback from injury and he has done little here before. Again at short odds against no appeal. For a bit of value here I might have a small punt on the big serving Yank Querry who wasn’t too far behind Ivo Karlovic in the aces stats last year and who also knocked out Serra , Acasuso and pushed Robredo hard in the Oz Open last year. The big Yank’s game is limited but the surface suits the big servers and at a fancy price he makes more appeal than Ancic who is too short and Del Potro who has flattered to deceive last year. He will have a fairly straight forward opener against big serving Darcis before testing Stepanek and if he brings the service arm is the value in the half.

Advised Bets

0.50 e/w Querry @ 33/1 (Stan James)
0.75 Units e/w Nieminen @ 20/1 (Bet Direct)

[Wittnann 45]

This is Wittmann 44 posting from my folks home btw. Don't have my regular password here.

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by Wittnann 45

This is Wittmann 44 btw.

We'd never have guessed!

Good to see this back

[Wittmann 44]

ADELAIDE OPEN - 5 YEAR RECORD
		2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
ACASUSO Jose		-	-	-	-	-
ANCIC Maria		-	1st	-	2nd	-
BECKER Benjamin		-	-	-	-	Robin
BOLELLI Simone		-	-	-	-	-
DARCIS Steve		-	-	Q1	-	-
DelPorto Juan Martin		-	-	-	-	SF
FALLA Alejandro		-	-	-	-	-
(WC) Guccione Chris		-	Q2	Q1	1st	Final
GRosjean Sebastien		-	-	-	-	-
GULBIS Ernests		-	-	-	Q1	-
HANESCU Victor		-	1st	-	-	-
Hewitt Lleyton		-	-	QF	2nd	Robin
KOROLEV Evgeny		-	-	-	-	Robin
MATHIEU Paul-Henri		-	-	-	1st	Robin
MAYER Florian		-	-	2nd	2nd	Robin
NIEMINEN Jarkko		-	SF	2nd	QF	-
QUERREY Sam		-	-	-	-	-
RUSSELL Michael		-	-	-	-	-
SELA Dudi		-	-	-	-	-
SIMON Gilles		-	-	-	-	Robin
Spadea Vincent		2nd	QF	-	1st	QF
STEPANEK Radek		-	-	2nd	-	Robin
TSONGA Jo Wilfred		-	-	-	-	-
zverev Mischa		-	-	-	Q1	-
Llodra Michael		-	Final	Q1	1st	-

[Wittmann 44]

New season starts with my goals this year to (1) do as well as last year yield wise (+6.24%) , (2) increase my start bankroll (100) units by 75% and (3) avoid some of last year's spectacular moments of overstaking that cost me very dear (max stakes bets on Dementieva against Bartoli and Zabaleta against Patience still burn).

As with the start of the football season stakes should be kept at a reduced level with form suspect and many players coming off breaks of between 4 and 6 weeks. Some have new coaches in and some will be carrying a good few extra pounds at the start of the year (looking at you Bandy ). Liquidity is pretty poor on the big blue right now.

As per last year all bets Betfair unless stated.


Adelaide

Mathieu-Benneteau

An all French line up with the h to h 2-1 for Benneteau (all indoor surfaces). Neither player has prospered down under and neither of them ever seems to achiveve much in the early months of the year. A lot will come down to serve here as the big servers seemed to prosper yesterday – neither player has a particularly biting first serve but Benneteau’s is particularly weak IMO – he was way down in first serve stats last year and in what could be a tight game I’d have to give the nod to Mathieu who made decent strides last year from the 50s into the low 20s and who will be keen to get the year of to a good start.

1.25 Units Mathieu @ 1.58 (Betfair)

Tsonga-Hanescu

Hanescu dogged by back problems early last year came back somewhat on the clay circuit in the second half of the year but this is most definitely not his surface – he last won a hardourt match back in 2005 (and has lost the last seven prior to that). Very hard to make any case for him at all against Tsonga who has a booming serve and will be mobile enough to get to most of what the Romanian can throw back. Tsonga like Hanescu had his injury problems but made massive leaps last year (especially on grass) I’d make a fair price for him much closer to 1.30. 1.39 is a steal.

2 Units Tsonga @ 1.39

Acasuso-Falla

I have seen a case being made for Falla on a few forums but I’d want a lot more than the 2.06 currently on Betfair – Acasuso is definitely more comfortable on clay but he was showing definite signs of hardcourt life last year with some decent scalps – (HRbaty, Younxny and Grosjean) and some much improved performances. He even took a set of Roddick before he lost interest when the going got tough. His temperament is a bit suspect for me but Falla while he has some decent form at Challanger level beat no one of much note bar Haas on hardcourt last year. Should be a ue fest here. Small stakes with Acasuso who if in the mood should have too much.

1 Unit Acasuso @ 1.95

Doha and CHennai tomorrow.

[Wittmann 44]

A good start to the year with 3 from 3 last night in Adelaide with only Tsonga really having to sweat.


1.25 Units Mathieu @ 1.58 +0.69 Units
2 Units Tsonga @ 1.39 +0.74 Units
1 Unit Acasuso @ 1.95 +0.90 Units

ATP Staked 4.25 Units
ATP Profit +2.33 Units

For today

Chennai

One long shot looks some value

Peya-Garcia Lopez

Not much between these two on hardcourt in my view and Peya has had the benefit of a 3 match warm up to make the first round. The Austria has a useful serve and tends to go best on grass and carpet but he faces a player whose natural surface is clay.

Lay Lopez 0.75 Units @ 1.64

Ram-Schukin

Ram came through qualifying without dropping a set in 3 games(against cannon fodder it must be said) and faces Schukin who was one of the names in the infamous “dirty dossier” of dodgy matches. The Russian is 6-7 since 2006 on hardcourt and has beaten no one from the top 100 in his very poor hardcourt career. Ram born in the US, the son of Indian parents has been on a tennis scholarship in the US before going pro and has some sort of limited pedigree on the surface and should have hometown support. Not one for big stakes but a small interest.

1.25 Units Ram @ 1.65


Doha

O.Rochus-Murray

I can’t see how Murray can go off as short as this against the ever game little Belgian. Rochus’s size and lack of a big serve will always count against the big power players but Murray is prone to the off day or two and Ollie finished the year well on hardcourt and at the price worth a nibble.

Lay Murray @ 1.22 0.25 Units Risked


Schuettler-Pavel

I’d rarely oppose a 4-0 h to h which Schuettler will have to reverse here but I’m going to be brave (stupid). Firstly the games on clay were all very tight and this is a surface far more suited to Schuettler’s game than Pavel – Schuettler has done well here in the dim and distant past (won. Finalist and semi finalist before 2002) and he finished the 2007 season in strong form with an excellent challenge win on carpet and a decent show in Mumbai. Injury has dogged the German’s career but I thinki he looks a much better bet here at odds against in what to me is the very definition of a coin toss at best for Pavel.

1.25 Units Schuettler @ 2.28

[rcgills]

Nice start Wittmann

I'm trying to stay away for the time being unless something really catches my eye, too many unknown factors at the start of the season for my liking. Did consider Peya myself though, but then saw Garcia Lopez has a semi-final appearance at Chennai from 2 years ago, that was enough to put me off that one I think. Garcia Lopez may prefer clay, but his hardcourt record is still pretty respectable.

Good luck with today's picks.

[Wittmann 44]

One more from Doha

Calleri-Robredo

Tight h to h here (4-3 for Robredo) and Calleri finished 2007 in decent form makes me think this might be closer than the prices suggest – Calleri made the SF here in 2004 while it is a first appearance for Tommy.

Lay Robredo @ 1.50 0.5 Units Risked

[Wittmann 44]

3 from 5 this afternoon to keep up the good start.

Lay Lopez 0.75 Units @ 1.64 -0.75 Units
1.25 Units Ram @ 1.65 +0.77 Units
Lay Murray @ 1.22 0.25 Units Risked -0.25 Units
1.25 Units Schuettler @ 2.28 +1.52 Units
Lay Robredo @ 1.50 0.5 Units Risked +0.95 Units

ATP Staked 4 Units
ATP Profit +2.24 Units

ATP Event Staked 8.25 Units
ATP Event Profit +4.57 Units

From Adelaide

Guccione-Mathieu

Guccione a surprise finalist here last year put some poor recent form behind him when serving 22 aces in his first round match. He joins most of the other big servers in round 2 on a surface that seems to be playing very fast. With the ability to pick up some cheap points with his serve Guccione should be able to nullify Mathieu’s better all round play somewhat. Throw in a home crowd behind him and he is worth a punt at tasty odds.

0.50 Units Guccione @ 3.20
0.25 Units Mathieu 2-1 @ 4.40


From Chennai

Vliegen-Serra

Most books find it hard to split these two – they have shared 6 sets and 1 match each in their two previous meetings (both indoors) but Vliegen has a very good record here ( QF and a SF in two appearances here) and by all accounts his serve was in very good shape in his first round game. Not much to choose between them but the marginal value is with the Belgian for me.

1 Unit Vliegen @ 2.03 (Pinnacle)


Malisse-Melzer

A meeting of two of the tour’s more mentally and physically fragile players here – Malisse who missed most of 2007 through injury will be keen to defend the title he won here last year as he is defending a lot of points. He has an excellent record against lefties like Melzer and Melzer’s change of coach during the summer didn’t seem to improve results much. The X-Man is a far better player than his current ranking of 112 would suggest and I’d hope that if he keeps his head that this would be fairly straightforward.

1.25 Units Malisse @ 1.70

1 from Doha

Berrer - Johansson

I’m not sure there should be the heavy odds on price there is on ToJo here. His win over Andreev looks so comprehensive I think the Russian must be carrying an injury of some sort. Berrer had a great 2007 climbing almost 100 places from 153 to 57 and making 3 ATP QFs (for the first time). The German has a useful serve and while he tends to go better indoors the court based on the game I saw between Robredo and Calleri doesn’t seem to be playing particularly fast which would tend to hopefully negate Johansson’s biggest weapon his serve. ToJo is getting on in years and is not the most mobile – Berrer successfully took out a number of big servers last year including KOhlsreiber, Fish, Guccione and at the price he might spring an upset.

Lay Johansson @ 1.47 (0.50 Units Risked)

[Wittmann 44]

Should have posted this earlier. Hits off in 5 minutes (sorry if anyones reading)

WTA Auckland

Harkelroad-Erakovic

Harkelroad won 3 ITF titles late last year and has way more experience than the local girl. This is a big price on the Yank.

1.75 Units Harkelorad @ 1.74

[rcgills]

The bookies seem to be finding it hard to split Cibulkova and Garbin, I'm not so sure, I fancy Cibulokova's chances in this. She had a good straight sets win in the first round against Razzano, who ended last season in fine form, although to be fair Garbin also had a good result in beating Petrova. One previous meeting between the 2, on hard court at last year's US Open, which Cibulkova took in straight sets.

Cibulkova to beat Garbin @ 1.83 3pts

[engineer]

Happy new year to everybody, hopefully a successfull 2008 is in front of us.

WTA:
Totally agree with RC about Cibulkova. 1.95 at BF and I'm on also.

Nicole Vaidisova ended 2007 in a disappointing manner, at Quebec she retired after having problems with her wrist if my memory serves. Today she faces T. Malek and could have some difficulties, especially if her motivation is not that high. Bet 365 offers 7.50 for Malek and I can have a bit of that price.

ATP:
Oops, Gucione's game starts in a minute and I'm on the big serving Aussie, defending his title in Adelaide at 3.00.

[engineer]

In Chennai Haase should see the Croatian Zovko off after beating Baghy yesterday. 1.35 is not much of a price, but I can't miss it.

Getting tempted to lay Moya vs Kudryavtsev as bet 365 are offering a great price for the Russian - 9.00 and Moya can save a bit of his power for the second half of the month.

[engineer]

Just found the time to read Wittm/nann 44/45 posts and I'm happy to see that he likes the chances of Gucione (finalist of course, not a winner from last year).

Also Berrer I can take at odds against and Tipsarevic to beat Ljube, but will keep the stakes low.

In the end C. Rochus to beat Wawrinka @4.30.
The Belgian played a great match yesterday against big Ivo , and demolished him in the second set.
If he produces the same tennis today this will be a 50:50 game and I see a great value here.

[Wittmann 44]

Guccione pushes Mathieu hard but unfortunately couldn’t capitalise on a first set win .

From Doha

Kiefer-Tursonov

On his day Tursonov can trouble most but is prone to go walkabouts when enough balls can come back at him. Kiefer’s return from injury last year went very well with 3 semi final appearances in the second half of last year. The surface is playing slow which should aid the German in lessening the effect of both Tursonov’s powerful serve and his big forehand. Kiefer leads the h to h 2-0 (both hardcourt) although their last meeting was decided by a handful of points. Kiefer was suffering an ankle injury coming into this and with Oz coming up might not be willig tpo push himself too hard. I’d make this a lot closer than the books are. Value with the Russian.

1 Unit Tursonov @ 2.32

Lee-Calleri

Calleri and Robredo played a mixed bag of a game yesterday. It seemed like roles were reversed somewhat as Calleri played the more solid tennis with Tommy missing a lot of winnable shots and making many unforced errors. He faces an opponent in Lee who is very solid from the baseline and while he doesn’t have a killer weapon should get more balls back than Tommy did yesterday. Calleri is the type of player who can very easily follow up an unexpected win with a horror show (beating Hewitt and then getting mauled by Monaco in the US Open last year springs to mind) and he has lost more than he has won on hardcourt a surface which he is not the most comfortable on. Another match that is very close to being 50:50 so value with Lee for me.

1 Unit Lee @ 2.22