ATP TENNIS MASTERS CUP

[engineer]

It started yesterday, I just lost quite a long post, so I'm being in a telegraphic style now.

Betfair still don't offer games, involving Davydenko

Not much of a betting material today, Federer is priced from 1.01 to 1.07

I'll be with Davydenko to beat Roddick at 2.50, Spotingbet.
Both were shite in the last weeks, but I can see Davy prevailing against totally out of sort Roddick.

[engineer]

And just put an outright bet for Davydenko at nice price 65, I'll lay that heavily when he reaches the semis...

[engineer]

Just took a look at the h2h between Fed and Gonzalez, Roger leads 10:0

But most of the games have been close affairs.

2007 Australian Open
Australia Hard F Federer 7-6(2) 6-4 6-4
Stats
2006 Basel
Switzerland Carpet F Federer 6-3 6-2 7-6(3)
Stats
2006 ATP Masters Series Madrid
Spain Hard F Federer 7-5 6-1 6-0
Stats
2006 ATP Masters Series Canada
Toronto, Canada Hard S Federer 6-1 5-7 6-3
Stats
2006 ATP Masters Series Monte Carlo
Monaco Clay S Federer 6-2 6-4
Stats
2005 Wimbledon
England Grass Q Federer 7-5 6-2 7-6(2)
Stats
2005 Roland Garros
France Clay R32 Federer 7-6(11) 7-5 6-2
Stats
2005 ATP Masters Series Monte Carlo
Monaco Clay R16 Federer 6-2 6-7(3) 6-4
Stats
2004 Hamburg AMS
Germany Clay R16 Federer 7-5 6-1
Stats
2004 Indian Wells AMS
California, USA Hard R32 Federer 6-3 6-2
Stats

I don't know what to expect from that match, I like Federer most aces, but it's priced 1.16

Gonzalez +4.5 games @2.12 looked fair to me, but if the first set is close and Fed win it, then Gonza could break and lose the second badly.

[redroar]

Its getting so that you just cant bet on Federer matches anymore as you just dont know how he'll perform. There's no value in the match odds(and no gaurantee of winning) he could demolish an opponent if bothered, two tie breaks if not and lose to oppents playing no better then last time he hammered them. Is this the begining of the end???

[engineer]

Originally Posted by redroar

Its getting so that you just cant bet on Federer matches anymore as you just dont know how he'll perform. There's no value in the match odds(and no gaurantee of winning) he could demolish an opponent if bothered, two tie breaks if not and lose to oppents playing no better then last time he hammered them. Is this the begining of the end???

Well, I don't think Federrer's end will come soon, maybe he's just tired of it all at the mo and wants to have some break from tennis. But still I see him as an outright favourite, although I won't back him at price under evens and won't get involved in his matches.

Now Gasquet just broke Djoko in the 2nd set and is the likely winner, the Serb could turn to be something like Jankovic in Madrid last week.

The other game today between Nadal and Ferrer would be some good stuff and a 51:49 % match for me.
I won't be surpriced all to be decided in tiebreaks and three sets, so I'm going for Ferrer+3 games @1.83 bet365 and over 24.5 games @2.20, BF.

[redroar]

Great minds....... I've layed Nadal to win 2-0 but I might have a piece of 24.5 games as well. Like Jankovic i thought Djoko looked shattered. Despite all the fixing claims i think this has been one of the most entertaing tennis seasons for a couple of years. Looking forward to another cracker this afternoon, lazy days.

[redroar]

P.s. with regard to Fed he is still master of his own destiny. Like you said he does look a bit uninterested. The talent and fitness is obviously still there its all in his head. Thats whats making him so dangerous to bet on, his prices are still no value and he could do anything!!

[redroar]

Well done to us both, tough to seperate Roddick and Gonzo. Roddick way ahead on the h2h but was very impressed with Gonzo yesterday. Might go for a lay of roddick on the 2-0 set betting.

[engineer]

For me today it's Aspelin/Knowle in the doubles against Knowles/Nestor @2.40 - 2.5 pts. Great value at those odds, number one double shouldn't be underdogs here.

Later I'll try to make up my mind about Gonza - Roddick match.

[engineer]

Looking into h2h between Poddick and Gonzalez, Andy leads 6:3, but it's 3:3 on hard surface. As I can see they haven't played on carpet. I reckon it will be damn close affair today. So, my money will be on Gonzalez +1.5 games @2.0 and over 23.5 games @1.75.

[engineer]

I see now Roddick most aces priced 1.18 at Betfair. Please, somebody stop me to lump my betfair bank on that bet...


Damn, it's 1.17 now.... I won't take it.

[engineer]

OK, bet365 offer Davydenko +5 games @2.20 and that's my only bet for that match - 2 pts. Let's hope the Russian won't fall apart and let Roger destroy him. I think Davydenko can give him a strong performance one more time and hopefully keep it close.

[Peter Orchard]

Nadal-Federer
Roddick-Ferrer
is how it all turned out and the Fed view of not being bothered who it is, (you have to beat ém all to be best), has some currency.

For my money, Roddick is a non-starter whenever he meets Federer but a reasonable tennis player behind the serve, nonetheless who may have chances against Ferrer though my money says not.

Nadal is world number 2 by virtue of his clay court record. My opinion is that Nadal is around 4 or 5 on the hard court and capable of being beaten by several above that rank, too.

Federer will win quite easily.