Tennis 22.10-28.10.2007

[engineer]

Sorry, no time for posting that week tournaments, web adresses etc.
But I'm in a hurry because I see a great value bet in Lyon at 13:05 CET

Nicolas Almagro to beat Mardy Fish @2.35 - 3 pts

World's number 26 vs number 41, both have decent current record, but I reckon Almagro have better chances in that game. He gave Gonzalez a performance last week and was unlucky to lose the game in two sets after eliminating Santoro in the first round.
Fish showed good tennis against PHM, but lost his nerves in the third set and got broken. I think today he'll have more bad moments and I'm going for Almagro at these tasty odds.

[engineer]

Also I fancy for today the following:

Garcia Lopez against Pashanski 1.5 pts
Lay Tursunov against Melzer 0.5 pts
Lay Bennetau against R-Vasselin 1 pt
Lay A. Bondarenko against Muller 0.5 pts

And a treble Robredo+Meusburger+Garcia Lopez - 1 pt

[engineer]

Almagro trashed Fish 6:2 in the first set, well done so far, I'm tepted to lay him to get my money back at least, if something changes in that match, but it looks like Mardy Fish can't be in touch...

[engineer]

Yesterday was crap, fortunately layed Almagro to save a bit of my money.

For today I can't see any value bet for now, I'll go for an accum with the following (mixed men and women):

Ferrer + Dulko + Bammer + Ljubicic + Gonzalez @~15/10 - 1 pt

[engineer]

Only 3 from 5 yesterday and I'm getting a bit irritated of how things are going that week in tennis. Sybille Bammer just killed me softly after losing a won match from the Japanese.

So, let's try harder and may the luck be with us.

Ladies first:
M. Garrigues to beat Paszek @2.70 - 1.25 pts
For me the Spanish is much more tallented and neat-handed player and has better chances in that game. What bothers me a bit is that Paszek is playing at home and is home's favourite after Bammer's defeat, but I can't miss that price and shall take it.

Lay Vaidisova against Penetta @1.23 - 0.25 pts
Lay Vaidisova 2:0 @1.65 - 0.5 pts
Penetta shouldn't be such an outsider definitely. Vaidisova can give herself a bit of a break and the handsome Italian will take her chances. I give credits to Pennetta here.

Lay Safina against Knapp @1.29 - 0.75 pts
Knapp achieved great victory over Krajicek yesterday and obviously is in form. On the other hand Safina keeps falling appart if she can't play her tennis in each match. That price for the Italian definitely worths a bit from my money.

Schiavone to beat Shakvetadze @2.90 - 1pt
Third Italian for me today, going against the h2h, but I think Anna will not give 100% here after being sure for Madrid now. Schiavone is walking over her opponents right now and she could do the same today.

[engineer]

Men:
Basel
Obviously Blake is having some problems at the moment and lay Blake seems a good bet in every match. But his opponent today looks too dire to rely on.
If the match was on clay I'd surely be on the Spaniard, but on carpet...
No, I can't resist that price:
Lay Blake @1.06 - 0.25 pts


That mug Berdych I'm still annoyed of after last week when he lost his head somewhere in the third set vs Bandy. F. Lopez looks in better form and the Czech can go out early from that tournament also.
Lopez @2.50 - 1pt

And a double: Baghdatis + Del Potro both to win 2:0 against them dire opponents - @2.15 - 1 pt


Lyon:
Don't know the condition of Roddick but Santoro could give him a hard time at home.
Lay Roddick 2:0 @1.50 - 0.75 pts


Llodra to beat Rochus @3.10 1.5 pts
Maybe my strongest bet for today.
The french should win that one. Not much of an argument, moreover the h2h is 2:0 in Rochus favour, but things can change now. I see this as a 50-50 match and odds over 3 can't miss.


For now nothing in Moskow, but I think the home guy Matsukevitch has decent chances for progress and can surprise some people there.




Come on, you tennis punters - nobody has a pick or at least a guess for today? There are 4 big tournaments being played that week!!! Wittmann is away and nobody bothers himself to share his thoughts.
I know some of you have a nice value bet out there, let us know about it

[engineer]

Hmm, Betfair aren't offering Davydenko - Volandri match in their coupon. Totally understandable. Two of the leaders of the fixing black list. I'll be interested in Davydenko's behaviour, I don't believe he's gonna make some shit in front of his supporters, although odds over 9.0 for the Italian look tasty.
Is anybody aware of russian bookie Fonbet's odds for that game?





Anyone?

[mord]

Bet365 is offering only @8

[Napoleon Solo]

Fonbet were 1.06 for Davydenko, 6.00 for Volandri.

[engineer]

Yesterday wasn't successful also, Penetta, Santoro and Bagh minimized my loss.

Lay Hantuchova against Dulko @1.30- 0.5 pts
The Argentinian has better chances than odds suggest.

Paszek to beat Bartoli 1.75 pts
The Austrian surpriced me yesterday with an outstanding performance and obviously she'll try to make a run in front of home croud. Great chance for her.

And a treble Schnyder + A. Bondarenko + Vakulenko - 0.5 pts



Youzhny to beat Ancic @2.75 - 1.25 pts
I think current form won't matter that much here and the Russian will stop Ancic's successful run. Not less than 50% I give to Youzhny, so the value is on him, especially playing at home.

Santoro to beat Grosjean @1.80 - 2.5 pts
Well, that's some game, isn't it. Santoro leads 8:2 in H2H , although their last meeting was in 2002. Grosjean's two wins were on clay.
The way Santoro defeated Rodick makes me confident he'll sweep the court with Grosjean. Hopefully he'll be in good physical condition after yesterday's great effort.


Rochus to beat Fish @2.4 - 1 pt
Fish was lucky to eliminate Almagro, but today he'll have in-form opponent with big ambitions. Another close match but for me the most probable winner is Rochus.

Baghdatis to beat Calleri @1.60 - 2 pts

Well, I don't know why the price for Baghy is that high. Yes, his opponent isn't crap, but on that surface I give Bagh much bigger chances.

And to make it stronger I'll add Baghdatis to win 2:0 @2.60 - 1 pt

Waiting for your opinion or at least a lovely picture of your favourite WTA participant

[mord]

I´m with you on Santoro

[mord]

what about Blake - Karlovic? I saw Blake yesterday and he is in great form now

[engineer]

Originally Posted by mord

what about Blake - Karlovic? I saw Blake yesterday and he is in great form now

Sorry, Mord, missed it, Blake leads now by a set...For me it's still no bet.
Blake, Berdych and Canas are in a furious battle for Shanghai and each of them should do their best to progress in the tournament.
In fact yesterday Blake won over extremely poor opponent and I'm not convinced of his form.
Now it's 3:3 in the second set and I'm tempted to lay Blake at 1.31.

[mord]

Originally Posted by engineer

Sorry, Mord, missed it, Blake leads now by a set...For me it's still no bet.
Blake, Berdych and Canas are in a furious battle for Shanghai and each of them should do their best to progress in the tournament.
In fact yesterday Blake won over extremely poor opponent and I'm not convinced of his form.
Now it's 3:3 in the second set and I'm tempted to lay Blake at 1.31.

Blake now back to @2,16, good match for back and lay

[Peter Orchard]

Richard Gasquet
looked under threat from qualifier Christphe Rochus yesterday and might be under more pressure from compatriot Tsonga today. He´s won here before so he likes the track - Lyon plays fast with a low bounce favouring those who play the grass courts well.
Both do that and Tsonga is quoted at 3,15.