Tennis 15th - 21st (ATP Madrid, WTA Zurich)

[Wittmann 44]

Bondarenko-Bammer

Going to oppose Engineer and side with Bondarenko here who looks in much better form than Bammer whose early year form has slipped somewhat. Bondarenko has the benefit of a decent warm up where she has beaten Dechy, Sugiyama in straight sets during the qualifiers.

1 Unit Bondarenko @ 2.36

[Wittmann 44]

Hantchova – Safina

I like the look of Hantchova here who seems to have discovered / found some mental stability recently. I was very impressed with her in Luxembourg and 3 of her last 4 defeats have come to eventual event winners. Safina was solid in Moscow but it’s the exception rather than the rule. The leggy one for me.

2 Units Hantchova @ 1.61

[Wittmann 44]

Much better yesterday with an excellent win for Monaco ensuring a tidy little profit on the day.

For today

Madrid

Lopez-Ferrer

Ferrer is fresh of an excellent win in Tokyo where he beat Lopez in the QF and very impressively left Karlovic and Gasquet well behind subsequently will fancy his chances here given his form. He is a solid favourite but I’d have questions over how solid he should be – the ATP h to h is 2-2 (and Lopez has won 2 of the 3 indoors). Lopez has a better record here as well and while Ferrer is a much better player than he was this time last year in what is in effect a local derby the derby dog factor like in soccer is well worth taking into account. For those that like Ferrer he has a great recent record against big servers (W9 L3) since 2006. Me I’m being perverse .

0.75 Units Lopez @ 3.60
0.25 Units Ferrer @ 4.40

Berdych-Nalbandian

Bandy turned in a schizo performance yesterday losing the first before playing some decent second and third set tennis to see off Clement. He will need to be a lot more solid today against Berdych who is defending SF points from last year and who has been moving in the opposite direction career wise from Bandy in the last year. The h to h is 2-1 for Bandy but he was a top 10 player for the first two wins and he lost the last match on clay in Germany fairly comprehensively. Berdych on his day will beat almost anyone but there are some horrid blots – defeats to Becker, Haase and Garcia Lopez spring to mind as does his shocking mental meltdown against Roddick. He withdrew from Stockholm for personal reasons and now finds himself in a very tight battle for points for Shanghai. A very tough match to predict but with Bandy not having anything to fight for and with Berdy still a live prospect for Shanghai I am sideing with the Czech.

1.50 Units Berdych @ 1.71

Blake-Ancic

Ancic demolished Gicquel first round without giving up a single bp as the Frenchman struggled with his serve. He faces Blake who despite being poor in Sweden still made the SF. This looks like it will be tight with both men having rocket serves but I think that Ancic’s lack of matchs will catch up with him here. With Haas out early Blake has a very good chance of breaking into the Shanghai 8 with a decent run here (he is 10 at the moment). Blake’s match fitness to tell.

1.50 Units Blake @ 1.95

Koubek-Ljubcic

Been looking to oppose Ljube in this match since I saw the draw – he was very poor in Vienna and showing the effects of kidney problems and a lack of training. Vienna is one of his best events. Koubek is in decent form and has seen off Nieminen, Massu already and warmed up against a vulnerable Ljube is worth chancing.

1 Unit Koubek @ 2.78

Kiefer-Younznhy

Kiefer made short work of Wawrinka who probably suffered a post final let down yesterday. He faces a slightly out of form Youznhy who was dumped out in Moscow in a poor showing against Berrer. The Russian has never done well here – lost 4 of the last 5. He has also been off the boil since making the SF in Amersfoot (W6 L6) and against a fresh looking Kiefer might struggle. He does lead the h to h an impressive 3-0 but this is his worst surface and I fancy the German to notch a first win here.

1.25 Units Kiefer @ 1.90

[Wittmann 44]

One more from Madrid and the ladies from Zurich

Madrid

Verdacso-Djokovic

I looked at the ranking spots and I think Djoko is home and hosed for Shanghai. With that in mind and coming off a win in Vienna he might not be firing on all cylinders here. With the rule of Verdasco in mind (he barks when a dog he wobbles when a jolly) the Spaniard who has discovered a spine, who has a decent record against the Serb and who will be egged on by a partisan crowd is worth a punt.

0.75 Units Lay Djokovic @ 1.29

Zurich

Kraijeck-Bartoli

My feelings on Bartoli probably cloud my judgements of her merit or otherwise as a player but for a player who has exited recently to the likes of Dushevina and Radawanksa she looks short against Kraijeck. The Dutch girl has one of the best serves on tour when in the zone but she is prone to some dire collapses and has some shocking losses this year. I’m however not convinced by Bartoli’s fitness and Kraijeck is worth a punt at fancy odds.

0.75 Units Kraijeck @ 2.92

Vaidisova-Jankovic

Vaidisova leads the h to h 4-3 although JJ won the last two. The Czech should be a lot fresher than JJ who has played nearly 100 single matches (not including doubles!!) this year and whose mad schedule seems to have caught up with her recently. With Vaidisova’s serve earning cheap points for her I thinki she’s a live prospect for an upset here.

0.75 Units Vaidisova @ 2.74

[Wittmann 44]

Update from yesterday

1 Unit Santoro @ 2.28 -1.00 Unitsfficeffice" />
1 Unit Safin @ 2.70 - 1.00 Units
1.25 Unit Kiefer @ 2.12 +1.33 Units
Lay Haas @ 1.35 (0.50 Units Risked) +1.36 Units

ATP Staked 7.75 Units
ATP Loss -0.78 Units

1 Unit Bondarenko @ 2.36 -1.00 Unit
2 Units Hantchova @ 1.61 +1.16 Units

WTA Staked 5.75 Units
WTA Profit +0.34 Units

[Wittmann 44]

Anyone watching the Berdych - Bandy game?

Having won the first set 6-4 Berdy was 4-0 up and serving with 2 breaks of serve only to lose the next 6 games on the spin

Mental meltdown or injury? Don't have TV access right now but I'll be very bummed if he blows this (although not as bummed as the folks that laid him at 1.01 to the tune of €170,000 )

[Wittmann 44]

And Berdy loses tb with just 2 points. What a mental midget

What a choke. Completely cancels out a great shout on Lopez

[engineer]

I'll be on Vaidisova in the evening also. I don't trust her in general, but this should be too much for Jankovic. I think she's really tired and will leave one of the tournaments in its earlier stages. If Vaidisova produces her big serves Jelena will have to run to win points and will give up eventually.

Vaidisova 2 pts

By the way that bugger Berdich cost me some money also... mug...

And really good job with Lopez, Witt, let's hope the evening will be successful!

[engineer]

Vaidisova won comfortably yesterday, but Blake screwed me for a nice profit... decided to take him in-running but he was totally helpless.

For today:

Lay Djokovic @1.26 - 1.5 pts
Djoko had to work hard yesterday to beat Verdasco and today he'll have a tougher opponent who had relatively easy match yesterday. I expect with Djokovic to happen the same as with Jankovic and Ivanovich and I'll go against him at that funny price. The only game between these two was in 2004 and Ferrero won it. I think the Spaniard has decent chances today.

Mathieu to beat Ancic - 3.25 pts
PHM is an outsider here!? Really, Ancic beat Blake but what to say for the French who outplayed Gasquet? Mathieu destroyed Ancic in Montreal a couple of months ago and I can't see no reason for that not to happen again.
Maybe the bet I like the most, especially at odds over 2.25.

Was tempted by Koubek's price, but Lopez is in great form also and playing at home, so I reckon the Spaniard is the more probable winner here. I'll skip that game.

And Murray v Nadal is a riddle for me. Nadal had to sweat heavily to beat Andy on Australian open. Obviously the Brit has his form back and plays better game after game... But odds 1.65 for Nadal... the same as Koubek - Lopez game maybe Nadal will win it, but I'm not getting involved.

And a small bet for Del Potro as I like his price against Bandy - 2.70, 0.5 pts.

[engineer]

In women's tennis I'm interested in Schiavone against Schnyder, the price is fine (2.80) and the Italian leads 4:3 in the h2h.

And a small lay of Kuznetsova against Bammer at 1.26.

My main bet will be Radwanska to beat Hantuchova @2.50. Both are in good form, but I think the Polish girl has better chances here and shouldn't be an outsider. They haven't met before and I'll risk it - Radwanska to take the lead.
Radwanska - 1.75 pts.

[Wittmann 44]

Good day yesterday – would have been even better if Berdy hadn’t blown up. I manged to trade a profit on Verdasco who won the first and couldn’t convert any of a further 5 bps he made in sets 2 & 3 against a more ruthless Djokovic.My staking could be more aggressive on the long shots as I’ve been hitting some nice ones this week with Koubek, Vaidisova and Lopez all obliging.

0.75 Units Lopez @ 3.60 +1.85 Units
0.25 Units Ferrer @ 4.40 -0.25 Units
1.50 Units Berdych @ 1.71 -1.50 Units
1.50 Units Blake @ 1.95 -1.50 Units
1 Unit Koubek @ 2.78 +1.69 Units
1.25 Units Kiefer @ 1.90 +1.07 Units
0.75 Units Lay Djokovic @ 1.29 -0.75 Units

ATP Staked 14.75 Units
ATP Loss -0.17 Units

0.75 Units Kraijeck @ 2.92 -0.75 Units
0.75 Units Vaidisova @ 2.74 +1.24 Units

WTA Staked 7.25 Units
WTA Profit +0.83 Units

Madrid

Ferrero-Djokovic

Been opposing Djokovic recently as I feel that he is going to crash and burn sooner rather than later. Verdasco couldn’t put him to the sword yesterday despite creating a host of bp chances he didn’t take any and relied on a number of set points to win in the first set tb. Ferrero continued a recent return to some sort of form by dominating a tired looking Moya. In an event he likes against a player who will be feeling the recent court miles I think Ferrero has a live chance of an upset here. No way should he be longer than Verdasco yesterday.

0.75 Units Lay Djokovic @ 1.27
0.25 Units Djokovic 2-1 @ 4.6

Mathieu-Ancic

Going to agree with Engineer here. Like the look of PHM who beat Ancic easily in Toronto (although the Croat was just back from glandular fever). PHM was poor on serve yesterday but he is very solid from the baseline and if he can get enough balls back at Ancic he will be favourite in the rallies for me. It should be closer than the odds.

1.25 Units Mathieu @ 2.36

Murray-Nadal

This is a massive match for Murray – a win here notwithstanding any further progress in the QF by my reckoning will plant him at number 9 in the race for Shanghai and just a few points off breaking into the top 8. He has been superb all week and against a rusty looking Nadal will probably have to wait quite a while to have a better chance of beating the Spaniard. Nadal was as poor as I have seen in a long while against Bagy who is in dreadful form himself. Nadal will always be competitive and a late night rowdy home crowd will no doubt have Murray’s finger hovering over the self destruct button but I think he is a decent shout here.

1 Unit Murray @ 2.50

Karlovic-Kiefer

I’ve posted the stats somewhere else in this thread or last week’s thread so I won’t reheat them. Tight game beckons here as well. Both Bets Gamebookers.

0.65 Units Kiefer 1st Set 7-6 @ 4/1
0.60 Units Karlovic 1st Set 7-6 @ 5/1

[Wittmann 44]

Great minds think alike today Engineer ?

It was Montreal like you say not Toronoto that PHM beat Ancic recenly. Me bad

[Wittmann 44]

One from Zurich

Schiavone-Schynder

Going to agree with Engineer here as well – Schiavone has won 3 of the last 4 and Patty is always likely to go into meltdown – 2 of her 3 wins against Schiavone went to 3 so the Italian’s game doesn’t seem to match up well with hers. Schynder always does well here (a win , a final appearance and a SF is fairly impressive) but I can never trust her at such short odds. Having said that I’m reluctant to fully oppose the home player and am going with Gamebookers handicap bet.

Schiavone +3.5 Games 1.25 Units @ 1.85

[redroar]

Great call on the Karlo/Kiefer match. Fancy karlo to take it though. His record in TB is special

[Wittmann 44]

Great stuff with the ladies today Engineer

Karlovic is simply a tb machine right now. Not a single service break in his defeat today