8th - 14th October ATP Vienna, Stockholm & Moscow ; WTA Moscow & Bangkok

[Wittmann 44]

ATP (Vienna) – Indoor Hardcourt

http://www.ba-ca-tennistrophy.at/en/home.html?mn=0

ATP (Stockholm) – Indoor Hardcourt

http://www.stockholmopen.se/t1.asp?p=345889

ATP & WTA Moscow – Carpet

http://www.kremlincup.ru/index-eng.html

WTA (Bangkok) – Hardcourt

http://www.pentanglepromotions.com/P...mainpage_E.htm

[Wittmann 44]

Only Vienna has anything like a full card tomorrow. There are a few games in the other venues but qualifying still going on in most. Vienna is a slow court.

The shift to carpet in Moscow will be worth watching as some players won’t handle the switch well.

A number of players need good results to qualify for Shanghai. I’ll point out any that jump out.

Vienna

Fish-Almagro

Nice price on Mardy Fish here against a player who has very little gametime on this surface and who retired in his last game with an elbow injury. Fish won their only meeting (indoor hard in Madrid qualifying) in 3 sets. Fish has struggled this year with a long running back injury compounded with knee problems but he showed some decent if patchy form immediately before Flushing Meadows and even on a slower surface his solid serve should ensure he has less pressure on his own serve. Almagro is 6-8 on indoor and with the retirement I can oppose.

1.50Units Fish @ Evens (Bet365)

Wawrinka-Gicquel

The wheels are well and truly of Gicquel’s wagon in the last few months as he has struggled badly for form – Wawrinka should have closed out against Tsonga last week in Metz when serving finals set at 4-2 up but left the Frenchman back into it. Gicquel was the same day getting badly spanked by Korolev. The h to h is 2-1 for Wawrinka (1-1 on indoor) but the Swiss is in far better form and made the QF here last year. The slower court should neutralise what is Gicquels main weapon his serve and Wawrinka if he avoids the concentration issues should have this fairly comfortably. I’d make the Swiss a much warmer jolly than the Betfair price.

2.25 Units Wawrinlka @ 1.70

Chela-Lopez

Chela looks far too solid here. Lopez has lost 10 of the alst 12 and has a dire indoor record and has been muddling in claycourt events for the last few months while the hardcourt season was in full swing which shows where his priorities lie. Chela’s inactivity since the US Open the only reason I’m not maxing out at 5 units here.

2.75 Units Chela @ 1.30

Eschauer-Lopez

A very small interest in opposing Lopez here against the Austrian Eschauer. He played Bangkok on Friday and jet lag might be an issue with the Austrian ogranisers not giving him any favors with a later start. – Escahuer retired in Metz but this is the very definition of speculative.

Lay Lopez @ 1.22 (0.25 Units Risked)

Koubek-Moya

Moya looks like he might be feeling all the matches he has played this year with a tame exit in Metz last week to Becker – Kobek has a solid record against him – he is W2 L3 but has nicked a set in 2 of the defeats. Koubek after a poor start to the year has rallied in the last few months and he was bossing Grosjean last week prior to his bizarre dismissal for foul language. He has a better indoor record than Moya although the Spaniard has always done well here in the slower conditions. I’d still fancy Koubek worth a punt at the odds with the crowd behind him and a hopefully a sense of injustice keeping him fired up.

1.25 Units Koubek @ 2.80

Ginepri-Dkjokovic

Djokovic pulled from Bangkok last week as his back injury flared up – I’m not even sure he will start this as noises from his camp suggest that he is not 100%. As top seed he will probably want to cash his appearance fee and not piss off the sponsors in Vienna but he will also have an eye on next weeks masters in Madrid with its massive purse and a chance to renew rivalries with Fedrer. Ginepri will push the self destruct button if Djokovic turns up in any shape or form willing to play but at 1.11 with question marks over both Novak’s fitness and his motivation here I can oppose.

Lay Djokovic @ 1.1 (0.25 Units Risked)

[Wittmann 44]

Bangkok

U.Radawankska-Cristea

Two of the younger and up and coming players on the tour face of here – Radwanaska (16) is junior Wimbeldon champion (US Junior runner up) and while Cristea (17) hasn’t managed to translate her ITF form of 2006 into a maiden WTA win this year she made the SF in Bali (beating Schynder en route). I haven’t seen either girl play but although Cristea looks to have played at a higher level than Radawanska she did lose to her in junior Wimbeldon and her best results bar the Bali run appear to be on clay. In whats likely to be close I can side with the dog here.

1 Unit Radawanksa @ 2.52

[Wittmann 44]

Moscow (ATP)

Roitman-Tipsarevic

Betting on Roitman and not knowing what mood he is in? What am I thinking ? Well the dodgy one might see a win here to be honest and there is a fairly decent purse at stake – the Argentine has only played 1 carpet match ever (lost) but he faces a player desperate for form (1 from last 8) and who seems to have come back too soon from a cracked rib if the recent results are anything to go by. Roitman took a set of Spadea on hardcourt last week and could have even nicked it so I don’t think he is quite as clueless outside clay as the results suggest. Having said all that this is really a punt on Tipsarevic not being 100% and should be treated as such stakes wise.

0.50 Units Tipsarevic Lay @ 1.33

[Wittmann 44]

Good day today with 3 from 4of the starts ane even Roitman gave a good run for my money. Good comeback from Wawrinka while Koubek did his best to throw it away but eventually triumphed. Events get underway in earnest tomorrow:

2.25 Units Wawrinlka @ 1.70 +1.50 Units
1.25 Units Koubek @ 2.80 +2.14 Units
0.50 Units Tipsarevic Lay @ 1.33 -0.50 Units

ATP Staked 4.00 Units
ATP Profit +3.13 Units

1 Unit Radawanksa @ 2.52 +1.44 Units

WTA Staked 1 Unit
WTA Profit +1.44 Units

For tomorrow. LAdies Moscow and a few Swedish picks to follow whenliquidity stabilises.

Moscow (ATP)

Berrer-Acasuso

I like the look of Berrer tomorrow – he is coming of some decent Challenge form and face a player who has been out for the last month must be court rusty. Berrer has played a lot on carpet (although mainly Challenger) and has a useful serve which will be a major plus on a very fast surface. Acasuso is having a decent year but is W5 L7 on carpet and most of his good results this year have been on clay. First appearance here for both men.

1.25 Units Berrer @ 2.06

Bolleli-Cilic

Battle of the big servers here – Cilic has more to his game than the Italian in terms of mobility and all round play but he is very patchy. He dropped sets in his 2 final qualifying games and Bollelis’s carpet record (W29 L10) is surprisingly good for a player more assopciated with clay. Much of that record is on the Challenger circuit but he seems to have enough about him to at least push Cilic close here. Their only other meeting was edged by Cilic (On clay) in 3 sets and I’m expecting another tight game here.

Lay Cilic @ 1.50 (0.50 Units Risked)

Troiki-Vliegen

The big serving but highly erratic Belgian Vliegen faced a long trek to Moscow after playing in the final of the Mons Challenger in his home country on Sunday evening. It can’t be ideal preparation against a player who has come through qualifying here without dropping a set and who will be well acclimatised. I would not make too much of Vliegeb’s final appearance in Mons (indoor hard). He beat no one in the top 100 (Pavel retired injured in the SF) and the Belgian’s results this year have been dire – he is 21-30 for the year. Troiki is more comfortable on clay although he made the carpet SF in Bergamo this year. He has taken sets of Canas and the big serving Bolleli on this surface and against an opponent who might not be 100% is worth a small punt.

1 Unit Troicki @ 2.36

Vienna

Canas-Ferrero

Going to add Canas to the earlier carried forward bets from yesterday. Canas has beaten JCF twice this year and the Spaniard seems in terminal decline. With Madrid coming up I’m not sure how interested he will be here. Canas made the SF in Metz and with final appearances here in 2001 and 2004 and an outside chance of making Shanghai I think he will have too much for the Mosquito.

1.75 Units Canas @ 1.58


Bangkok

Amamurdova-Rodinova

Amamurdova came through qualifying here without dropping a set in three games and faces a player who is struggling with an injury picked up recently during her SF run in China. Prior to that run Rodinova had been having a terrible year (she is still in negative terms for W-L) and I’d fancy the in form player to have a little but more herr.

1.50 Units Amamudova @ 1.80

Nkamura-Zapakalova

I backed Zapakalova to beat Nakamura last week at very tasty odds of 2.50 in Tokyo and find the odds are reversed now. Zapakaolova was a value play last time out. Things haven’t changed that much notwithstanding her win last week and the value play here is on the Japanese girl who made the QF last year and who while her form is poor right now has better hardcourt pedigree over her career.

1 Unit Lay Zapakolva @ 1.66

[Wittmann 44]

Moscow (WTA)

Azarenka-Bammer

Azarenka’s power against the solid returning of Bammer. Azarenka might have fatigue issues having played and lost in the final in Tashkent on Sunday but at the price I’m willing to chance her here against Bammer who has been less consistent of late and who seems to struggle against the power hitters.

1 Unit Azarenka @ 2.38

[Wittmann 44]

Stocjkholm

Delic-Ancic

Poor old Super Mario no sooner back from his glandular fever than he goes and pops his shoulder and he has barely manged 20 games all year – Delic is game but limited to a big serve although that might be enough against a player who must be very rusty.

0.75 Units Lay Ancic @ 1.36

Rochus-Haas

After a dire slump earlier in the year Olly has final hit some form – Final in Mumbai , challenger win in Orelans and a QF in Mons in his last 3 outings. I don’t think the Belgian has the power to compete with the very best but he has a decent record here (SF and 2QFs) and Haas’s great early year form has slipped somewhat

0.75 Units Lay Haas @ 1.29
0.25 Units Haas 2-1 @ 4.6

[Wittmann 44]

Horrible today so far. None of the speculative plays came in or even close and got a real kick in the teeth from Canas who has just squandered a host of bps in the first two sets to firstly let Ferrero back into the second set and then having gotten in a position with a break to serve for the match 3rd set he blows it and loses the resulting tb on his own serve .

Settling down to watch some tennis from Stockholm so a few more punts to wrap up the day with ToJo on first followed by Bjorkman.

Johansson-Del Potro

Del Potro seems to be in some difficulties again after seeming to get some form together in the US.Heretired last time out against Sela and faces a player who has won this event twice ad made the final another time and who is starting to find his feet again. The quotes of 1.60 look on the skinny side but my last two interest plays have come off and I’mn going to be cheering ToJo on here as well.

1.75 Units Johansson @ 1.61

Blake - Bjorkman

Blake has won this in both his last two appearances and only dropped two sets in two games. H to h is 2-0 in his favor (both straight sets). Bjorkman doesn;t have the legs to chase down the power hitters and Blake very comfortable against S & V. In play on Betfair now but not started.

3 Units Blake @ 1.25

[Wittmann 44]

Good comeback yesterday with both the late Swedish selections coming in though Blake’s serving looked off and he was made work a lot harder than I thought by Bjorkman

1.50Units Fish @ Evens (Bet365) +1.50 Units
2.75 Units Chela @ 1.30 +0.78 Units
Lay Lopez @ 1.22 (0.25 Units Risked) -0.25 Units
Lay Djokovic @ 1.1 (0.25 Units Risked) -0.25 Units
1.25 Units Berrer @ 2.06 +1.26 Units
Lay Cilic @ 1.50 (0.50 Units Risked) -0.50 Units
1 Unit Troicki @ 2.36 -1 Unit
1.75 Units Canas @ 1.58 -1.75 Units
0.75 Units Lay Ancic @ 1.36 -0.75 Units
0.75 Units Lay Haas @ 1.29 -0.75 Units
0.25 Units Haas 2-1 @ 4.6 -0.25 Units
1.75 Units Johansson @ 1.61 +1.02 Units
3 Units Blake @ 1.25 +0.71 Units

ATP Staked 19.75 Units
ATP Profit +2.40 Units

1.50 Units Amamudova @ 1.80 -1.50 Units
1 Unit Lay Zapakolva @ 1.66 -1.00 Unit
1 Unit Azarenka @ 2.38 +1.31 Units

WTA Staked 4.50 Unit
WTA Profit +0.25 Units

[Wittmann 44]

Didn’t get a chance to post up on much of the earlier matches but from what’s left:

Moscow (ATP)

Mahut-Andreev

Andreev has lost his two games against Mahut (most recent a 3 setter last week in Metz) so I am not sure how he can start such a warm favourite here. He is at home and did win this in 2005 but Mahut has a powerful serve and is on a decent run of form with 9 wins from the last 12 (admittedly not against the greatest opposition). Andreev’s best surface is IMO still clay where he has the time to wind up the big shots. On the faster surfaces he plays very little and notwithstanding his 2005 win here he hasn’t done well indoors or indeed on grass to justify his price here. This is likely to be a decent trading game as I can see breaks and neither man is mentally the best.

1 Unit Mahut @ 2.80

Korolev-Murray

Both men will have been pleased by decent runs in Metz (Murray to the final and Korolev to the QF as a qualifier). I’m not fully convinced Murray is 100% fit yet and Korolev has 2 carpet challengers to his name and at home is likely to be well fired up for this. Murray a worthy jolly but 1.29 looks very skimpy.

0.50 Units Lay Murray @ 1.29
0.25 Units Murray 2-1 @ 4.60

[Wittmann 44]

Vienna

Seppi-Haase

Haase has a decent serve but I’m not convinced of him being favourite here – this is a slow court and since his breakthrough in Amersfoot the Dutchman has been very erratic.. I wouldn’t put too much store into Seppi’s win over Baggy who was awful according to match reports but the Italian is fairly consistent from the baseline and the slow court should help him get enough balls back to put pressure on Haase’s middling returning skills.

1.25 Units Seppi @ 2.40

Ljubcic-Fish

Very speculative play against the twice winner here – he has been receiving treatment for kidney problems and Fish has beaten him once before and taken sets off him in their other hardcourt (both outdoor) meetings. Fishnwas well in control against Almagro before dropping his concentration badly to let him back into it but this is a game against a similar (if better) styled palyer that should suit him.

0.5 Units Risked Lay Ljubcic @ 1.51

[Wittmann 44]

Stockholm

Dancevic-Wessels

A very similar match up here – two tall big servers but Dancevic would have for me a considerable edge in general play. The Canadian has not kicked on from his good showings in Montreal and Indianapolis but having said that 3 of his last 4 defeats were to Nadal, VErdasco and Safin and he took sets off both Spaniards. Wessels has toiled around the Challenger circuit but outside his home country his record in ATP events is very poor – he has lost all 6 games he played outside Holland since 2006 to players between 50 and 100 (Dancevic is 69) and while this could be very tight I’d give the edge very much to Dancevic.

1.75 Units Dancevic @ 1.61

Clement-Miryni

Going to side with Clement here against a woefully out of form (singles anyway) Miryni who is here as a lucky loser having been dismantled by world 254 Kamke in the qualifying round. Max is here to play doubles and help Bjorkman win his home event for the first time with him. With the winner facing a very winnable second round match against Carlsen or Ryderstadt I’d expect Clement to have the motivation to take this fairly comfortably.

1.75 Units Clement @ 1.51

[Wittmann 44]

Dancevic with 3 match points and 2 serves serving at 6-3 in the 2^nd set tie break manages to blow all 3 mps and lose the tb 9-7. Having won the first set 6-1 and looking extremely comfortable he now faces a 3^rd set.
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Nice choke Frank

One of those days beckons methinks

[Wittmann 44]

And Dancevic manages to win a third set tb – the folk who spunked €35,000 on him at 1.01 can change their underwear and those who backed Wessels at 200-1 will hopefully have laid of a nice chunk of profit for themselves.

Ace Count a pretty mind boggling 34 Danecvic 23 Wessels.

[mord]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

And Dancevic manages to win a third set tb – the folk who spunked €35,000 on him at 1.01 can change their underwear and those who backed Wessels at 200-1 will hopefully have laid of a nice chunk of profit for themselves.

Ace Count a pretty mind boggling 34 Danecvic 23 Wessels.

I have never understood guys that can bet thousands at odds 1.01, moreover in tennis games