8th - 14th October ATP Vienna, Stockholm & Moscow ; WTA Moscow & Bangkok

[Wittmann 44]

I have never understood guys that can bet thousands at odds 1.01, moreover in tennis games

Agree totally. If you had the time , a superfast connection and inclination you could make a nice bit of money offering 1.01 at moments like this especially in the women's game when blowing 3 match points happens with monotonous regularity. The fact that Wessels did evntually lose his neither here nor there as he traded as low as 1.80 subsequently.

[mord]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Agree totally. If you had the time , a superfast connection and inclination you could make a nice bit of money offering 1.01 at moments like this especially in the women's game when blowing 3 match points happens with monotonous regularity. The fact that Wessels did evntually lose his neither here nor there as he traded as low as 1.80 subsequently.

I always bet at high odds, just like yesterday Molik at @10!!, when the match was balanced and after second set they offered her at @2,9 lay
I like when the match is at @1,0X on lay, you spend some little money to risk it, but I think big percent of the games turn upside down, as you said mainly in women tennis and mainly russian girls

[Wittmann 44]

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[Wittmann 44]

1 Unit Mahut @ 2.80 -1.00 Units
0.50 Units Lay Murray @ 1.29 -0.50 Units
0.25 Units Murray 2-1 @ 4.60 -0.25 Units
1.25 Units Seppi @ 2.40 +1.66 Units
0.5 Units Risked Lay Ljubcic @ 1.51 -0.50 Units
1.75 Units Dancevic @ 1.61 +1.01 Units
1.75 Units Clement @ 1.51 +0.85 Units

ATP Staked 26.75 Units
ATP Profit +4.18 Units

WTA Staked 4.50 Units
WTA Profit +0.25 Units

[Wittmann 44]

Good day yesterday with 3 from 3 but the major bets coming in to ensure a profit. Fish was unlucky not to nick it from Ljube but I managed to trade out a small profit in the end so no major complaints. Trappy looking coupon today with some very tight looking games.

Vienna

Wawrinka-Nalbandian

Both men struggled somewhat first round – Wawrinka dropped a set against Gicquel and Bandy had to save a number of set points against Galvani who is a lay courter through and through. The h to h is 2 apiece and while Bandy is by far the better player if motivated there are huge doubts how up for these small events he really is. He has been heavily involved in motor racing recently and I’ve read he has parted with his coach again. He did seem to have shed a lot of the weight that he carried from earlier in the year but with Madrid a bigger priority I can side with the dog here.

1 Unit Wawrinka @ 2.28

Melzer-Chela

Going to side slightly reluctantly with the dog here as well. Melzer leads the h to h 2-1 and is at home at an event that Chela has never done well at. Melzer’s form has picked up somewhat with a new coach and wrist surgery and Chela seems to be treading water somewhat.

1 Unit Chela @ 2.12

Moscow (WTA)

Safina-Chekevatdze

Going to side with MSafina for once here. Chekevatdze is struggling with serve in her last few games and all the tennis she played over the summer might be catching up with her. Safina leads the h to h 2-1 and they have both beaten each other here at Moscow.

0.75 Units Unit Lay Chekevatdze @ 1.51

[Wittmann 44]

Stockholm

T.Johansson-Llodra

Watched both Swedish players ToJo and Bjorkman in action yesterday and ToJo was after dropping a break early on in excellent serving form although it might be better not to read too much into that given Del Potro’s second set retirement. This should be an excellent match up for him. Llodra has outside of carpet a poor record against the monster servers (he is W2 L8) on hardcourt against players I’d class with ToJo – for example he has lost the last 6 on hardourt against the klikes of F.Lopez, Guccione, Monfils , the other Johansson (*2) and Tursonov. He has lost all 4 tbs he has played in those games as well. ToJo squares of well against the serve and volley type as excellent head to heads over the liks of Miryni show. At home at an event he has won twice I can see Johansson steamrolling Llodra’s lightweight game .

2.25 Units Johansson @ 1.47

Dancevic-Blake

I thought Blake would murder Bjorkman but he was very poor especially on his own serve. Jonas didn’t have the game to capitalise on his serving and Blake wriggled out. Dancevic almost imploded against Wessels by squandering the second set and multiple match points but dug himself out of a hole by virtue of an outlandish display of serving (35 aces). This is likely to be a very ugly slug fest and with Blake not at his best the Canadian might run him close. I’ve taken Dancevic with the handicap mainly as this is one that could easily be decided 7-6, 7-6. Incidentalloy the h/cap price on Dancevic at Pinnacle is massive IMO ; Gamebookers go 1.85.

1.25 Units Dancevic +3.5 games @ 1.98 (Pinnacle)
1.50 Units Over 21.5 Games @ 1.890 (Pinnacle)

J.Johansson-Karlovic

Expect serving from a tree in this game. Both men are capable of massive serving and both seem well on their game. Its hard to see many bp opportunities here and a correct score bet on the first set is the advised bet. Both bets at Gamebookers.

0.85 Units Karlovic 7-6 (1st set) @ 3.50
0.65 Units Johansson 7-6 (1st set) @ 4.0

[Wittmann 44]

Just realised I advised Chela above when it should be Melzer. Should be clear from the comments.

1 Unit Melzer @ 2.12

[Wittmann 44]

Mixed day yesterday with a great win for Safina undermined by too much staked on Dancevic who was absolutely lousy against Blake. Small loss on the day.

Moscow (ATP)

Stepanek-Tipsarevic

Tipsarevic has overachieved to get here and is operating at a level way above what he has been playing at all year. His QF run is all the more remarkable considering his ongoing injury problems but he should hit the wall here – he has lost all 3 previous ATP quarter finals and faces a player in the form of his career. Stepanek's recent defeats have since June come from top 20 players and he has run most of them very close. He has won 7 of his last 10 QFs and his indoor play is top 10 IMO. Tipsarevic is a better player on clay but indoors I think Stepanek has a massive edge.

1.75 Units Stepanek @ 1.37

Berrer-Kohlsreiber

All German match up with the lefty Berrer in excellent serving form I would make this a closer game than the prices suggest. H to h is 1 apiece and Koholsreiber isn’t the best when put under pressure.

1 Unit Berrer @ 2.66

Moscow (WTA)

Safina-Zvonereva

4-1 in the h to h to Safina (9-2 in games). All on clay admittedly but with a great win over Chekevatdze behind her I can’t understand quotes of 1.50 on Zvonereva. Yes she’s more solid and she’s probably a more powerful and definitely mentally solid player but 1.50 is far too short.

Lay Zvonereva @ 1.49 0.75 Units Risked

Vienna

Lopez-Wawrinka

Wawrinka is a player that I’ve underestimated (with costly results) quite often this year after his return from injury and its only recently that I have got on his right side. It feels strange to be opposing him again here given a W6 L3 QF record and some very solid play over the last 3 months but I think that Lopez who demonstrated his seriousness here yesterday by battling to come back from a set down against Koubek deserves support at a nice price. Wawrinka has a poor record against lefties (W7 L10) and is prone to go walkabout on his own serve. For all Lopez’s fine tennis this year he has actually only one career title behind him – here in 2004 so he likes the surface here somewhat. How much is mind is on Madrid is another issue but I’m hoping he stays motivated if things gets tight. Value with the dog.

1.25 Units Lopez @ 2.34

Stockholm

I missed the price on Ivo at 1.85 last night which was excellent value to beat a misfiring Clement but I can leave 1.71 alone even though I think with a day off yesterday and Clement in middling form he should win.

T.Johansson-Ancic

Going to side with big serving To Jo here. Not convinced that Ancic can be 100% and ToJo likes the conditions here a lot.

T.Johannson 1 Unit @ 2.12

Blake-Nieminen

Blake leads the h to h 4-0 (including a str sets win in the final here in 2006) and holds one of the most impressive records against lefties on the tour (W46 L10) .He hasn’t lost in 30 odd games against lefties since mid 2004 . Blake is going for a three in a row here and after stuttering against Bjorkman he managed to get back in gear yesterday when dragging Dancevic all around the court and exposing the Canadian’s poor mobility. Blake is 13-4 in QFs since 2006 and two of those defeats have come to Fed. I’m stlightly concerned by Blake’s first day display but I still think he will have too much here.

1.50 Units Blake @ 1.39

[Wittmann 44]

Update from yesterday. Melzer's loss from a winning position the main disappoining result ysterday.

1 Unit Wawrinka @ 2.28 +1.22 Units
1 Unit Melzer @ 2.12 -1.00 Unit
2.25 Units Johansson @ 1.47 +1.00 Units
1.25 Units Dancevic +3.5 games @ 1.98 (Pinnacle) -1.25 Units
1.50 Units Over 21.5 Games @ 1.890 (Pinnacle) -1.50 Units
0.85 Units Karlovic 7-6 (1st set) @ 3.50 - Void
0.65 Units Johansson 7-6 (1st set) @ 4.0 - Void

ATP Staked 33.75 Units
ATP Profit +2.65 Units

0.75 Units Unit Lay Chekevatdze @ 1.51 +1.40 Units

WTA Staked 5.25 Units
WTA Profit +1.65 Units

[Wittmann 44]

Good day yesterday with solid odds against wins for Berrer , Johansson and Safina but Lopez completely lost the plot – lost the first game of all 3 sets and couldn’t capitalize on his first set win. Tipsarevic pulls of a shock in beating Stepanek – luckily did’

1.75 Units Stepanek @ 1.37 -1.75 Units
1 Unit Berrer @ 2.66 +1.58 Units
1.25 Units Lopez @ 2.34 -1.25 Units
T.Johannson 1 Unit @ 2.12 +1.06 Units
1.50 Units Blake @ 1.39 +0.56 Units

ATP Staked 40.25 Units
ATP Profit +2.84 Units


Lay Zvonereva @ 1.49 0.75 Units Risked +1.45 Units

WTA Staked 6.00 Units
WTA Profit +3.10 Units


For today

Vienna

Ferrero-Wawrinka

Going to chance Ferrero here who has played well above what I expected all week as wins over Gonzo, Canas and Benneteau show. Both himself and Wawrinka have played 9 sets this week as all their games have gone the distance so fatigue might be an issue if this looks like going to 3 you’d think the younger Wawrinka might have more in the tank. I’m leaning towards JC for two reasons – firstly this does seem to be an event he likes and secondly he has a 3-0 h to h over the Swiss (including a win here). Should be tight and I’ll add a health note that opposing Wawrinka has not been profitable for me this year but fortune favors the brave (or stupid)!

1.50 Units Ferrero @ 1.73

Seppi-Djokovic

Chela almost pulled of a major shock yesterday but couldn’t capitalize on 2 match points against Djoko. The Serb who had injury worries before he played here had according to the match reports two injury time outs for treatment to his back and so might be vulnerable here. They met in Rotterdam in February 2006 when Djoko went off around 1.60 before winning in 3 and while he had shot up perfroamnce wise since then I still think in the circumstamces that a play on Seppi (small stakes) is worthwhile.

0.5 Units Lay Djokovic @ 1.20


Moscow

Berrer-Mathieu

Berrer has made his first ATP final by virtue of a retirement yesterday by Koholsreiber (Berrer a set up at the time) and the German has brought his excellent Challenger indoor record to Moscow where his big serve has been firing fairly well all week. Mathieu is one of my favorite players on the tour and his progress on the tour is evident from his rise in the rankings from the 50s to the 20s over the last year. Moscow was the first of his 5 ATP titles back in 2002 (on carpet then) but I feel he is slightly underpriced here. He doesn’t have a particularly good record against the big servers nor against lefties and while experience will probably tell in the end I think Berrer is probably good enough to nick a set here.

Lay Mathieu 2-0 @ 1.98 1.25 Units Risked

[Wittmann 44]

Not a good day yesterday with all 3 selections losing – memo to self to stop opposing Wawrinka. Still in profit so I should probably give things a rest but nothing ventured nothing gained.


Karlovic-Johansson

Big Ivo has been in aweseome serving form while ToJo’s stats have steadily slipped. He is a better all round player, has an aweseome record here (2 wins from 3 finals) and has only lost 2 of his 9 career finals. Ivo has been winning matches where there has been literally a single break of serve and its hard to see this being too much diefferent. They have met 4 times before (2 apiece) and 3 of the 4 have gone over 2 sets. Tie breaks look a given here – Ivo has had 75 in 73 games this year and ToJo has had 34 from 54. A more interesting stat is that Karlovic has had 32 games from the 75 where the first set has ended in a tb but the price on Gamebookers has been slashed.In a game which looks like it will be decided on points you can get long of total games (Bet 365) or go first a first set correct score bet or total sets (6/5 Gamebookers). I’m plumping for total games as with a single tb might be enough even with a 2 setter but no one is offering yet

1.25 Unit Games > 21.5(To Confirm)
If not 3 sets @ 6/5 with Gamebookers

Wawrinka-Djokovic

Going to side what Imo is the value play with Wawrinka who has knocked out some decent opposition en route and who has raised his game significantly this week. Djoko will probably be too solid and draw the errors from the Swiss if he is his usual solid self defensively but he has surprised me (again) all week so fingers crossed.

0.50 Units Wawrinka @ 4..5
0.25 Units Djokovic 2-1 @ 4.3

[Wittmann 44]

Djokovic absolutely dismantled Wawrinka yesterday with a very solid display – I think he gave up only one bp chance and he played a massively varied game. Some real showman's shots as well the pick being a lovely drop and lob that Wawrinka didn't even run for. Ended with a small men’s profit thanks to Karlovic and Johansson going the distance.

1.50 Units Ferrero @ 1.73 -1.50 Units
0.5 Units Lay Djokovic @ 1.20 -0.5 Units
Lay Mathieu 2-0 @ 1.98 1.25 Units Risked -1.25 Units
1.25 units Karlovic – Johansson 3 sets @ 6/5 +1.50 Units
0.50 Units Wawrinka @ 4.5 -0.50 Units
0.25 Units Djokovic 2-1 @ 4.3 -0.25 Units

ATP Staked 45.50 Units
ATP Profit +0.34 Units

WTA Staked 6.00 Units
WTA Profit +3.10 Units

Event Staked 51.50 Units
Event Profit +3.44 Units (+6.68%)

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Year to Date Staked 842.69 Units
Year to Date Profit +52.59 Units (+6.24%)