Tennis 1st-7th Oct (ATP Tokto & Metz, WTA Tokyo,Tashkent & Stuttgart)

[Wittmann 44]

Big Ivo comes good yet again. Cheers Ivo . Yet another retirement goes against me with Eschauer 2 breaks down in first set retiring and voiding what looked a winner (1 from 1o gone my way now)

My max stakes bet on Fabrice fell on its tits as he forgot to serve (37% first serve in first set) but 3 from 5 for the ladies ensures a profit on the day

3.25 Units Johansson @ 1.28 +0.87 Units
1.50 Units Cilic @ 1.74 -1.50 Units
2 Units Spadea 2-0 @ 1.91 (Stan James) -2 Units
1.75 Units karlovic @ 1.67 +1.12 Units
0.75 Units Lay Del Potro @ 1.41 +1.74 Units
0.25 Units Del Potro 2-1 @ 3 (Ladbrokes) –0.25 Units
2.5 Units Llorda @ 1.32 - Void
2.75 Units Santoro @ 1.84 -2.75 Units
1.25 Units Lay Gicquel @ 1.71 +1.67 Units

ATP Staked 29.00 Units
ATP Profit +2.75Units

Lay Wozniaki @ 1.54 (1 Unit Risked) -1 Unit
Lay Pin @ 1.49 (1 Unit Risked) -1 Unit
2 Units Molik @ 1.48 +0.91 Units
2 Units Kraijeck @ 1.80 +1.52 Units
1.25 Units Golovin @ 2.52 +1.81 Units

WTA Staked 15.00 Units
WTA Profit +2.63 Units

[Wittmann 44]

QF for ladies in Tokyo ; 3rd round for men

Tokyo-WTA

Mirza-Pennetta

Pennetta put her man/Moya troubles behind her recently to make the SF in Seoul and now the QF in Tokyo. For me this is more a reflection on the poor players she has met than any brilliance on her part. She has a very poor record on hardcourt at this stage (W4 L7 hardcourt) QF and faces a player who likes this surface and who easily beat her in 2 on indoor last year. The dropped set by Mirza to Dellaqua is a slight concern but I’d still expect Mirza to equal her SF appearance here in 2005 on her only other appearance.

1.75 Units Mirza @ 1.48


Tokyo-ATP

Karlovic-Lee

Going to chance big Ivo again today although with slightly less confidence than yesterday. I’d make him a bit shorter than he is at the moment. Lee moves well & has a tidy little game but hits the ball back fairly flat which will probably give Ivo more chances to break than he will get against a big hitter. This will probably have a tb or two and Ivo has a big edge on Lee here. Ivo has also won a very impressive 7 of 10 QFs this year (3-1 on hard) and won 8 of the 10 tbs in those games. The Croat is at a career high also.

1.75 Units Karlovis @ 1.70

Johansson-Verdasco

Applying the rule of Nando here and opposing the stylish one when he is the jolly. He does look more competitive than previously with some good summer results on hardcourt and some battling performances in Bangkok but he doesn’t like the big servers and ToJo is serving big at the moment. He also has a dangerous backhand which will play well against the lefty Spaniard. Fernando a worthy favourite on current form but price is too short.

1.25 Units Lay Verdasco @ 1.74

Sela-Pashkani

Going to continue to follow Sela whose good form continued with an excellent and tastly priced win against Del Potro yesterday. The Israel has beaten Massu, Gonzo and Del Potro in the last fortnight and should have too much hardcourt guile for Pashkani who has only once won more than 2 games in a row onthis surface. He has also been battling injury and apparently his win over Nieminen was die as much to the Finns desire to be on the first plane to Sweden (where he defends points from a Final appearance last year as to any greta play on the Serbs part. Pashkani was actually oupointed by Scherer (ranked 466) in his first round win.

1.50 Units Sela @ 1.56

Lopez-Tursonov

Fatigue possibly an issue for the erratic Russian - Lopez easily saw off big serving Kendrick nad he has been in good form for the last few months. Looks underestimated badly here IMO.

1.25 Unit LAy Tursonov @ 1.55

[Wittmann 44]

A final value play on Russell - Berdy was around 1.33 when he lost to Russell in Miami so 1.16 makes no sense. Good win against Cilic might boost his confidence

Lay Berdych @ 1.16 0.25 Units Risked
Bedry 2-1 @ 5.5 0.25 Units

[Wittmann 44]

Good day today with another profit on advised bets. I had an even better day at Metz and Stuttgart with winners with Grosjean, Mahut, Dementieva and a loss for Kraijeck for a profit of 2.80 Units. In the interestes of transparency I won’t post it as the site was down but very nice. Especially gratifying was Grosjeans win due to Koubek getting disqualified when a break ahead in the final set. About tiem one went my way . Nice one Stefan


1.75 Units Mirza @ 1.48 -1.75 Units

WTA Staked 16.75 Units
WTA Profit +0.88 Units

1.75 Units Karlovis @ 1.70 +1.16 Units
1.25 Units Lay Verdasco @ 1.74 -1.25 Units
1.50 Units Sela @ 1.56 +0.80 Units
1.25 Unit LAy Tursonov @ 1.55 +2.16 Units
Lay Berdych @ 1.16 0.25 Units Risked -0.25 Units
Bedry 2-1 @ 5.5 0.25 Units -0.25 Units

ATP Staked 35.00 Units
ATP Profit +5.37 Units

[Wittmann 44]

SF stage at Mettz and Stuttgart – going on an a dog backing spree here. Bark dogs bark

Petrova-Jankovic

The never ending roadshow goes on for Janokovic – 91 and not out in singles alone this year which is more than any other player in the top 100 and will surely be something that will have an effect next year (Davydenko being a case in point nin the ATP). She lost the first against Peer yesterday and by the third set was being treated for leg cramps. Petrova has long running injury issues of her own and she is a poor mover but if she can hang in on her service games she might run this one very close.

1 Unit Petrova @ 2.90

Kuznestsova-Williams

The h to h is 2-0 but Kuzenstova has IMO been improving and Venus standing still to some extent since their last meetings. The Russian had an excellent US Open run and was in great Davis Cup form last week. She is a relative mental midget next to Williams but the price reflects that I think. Should be tighter than the prices suggest.
1 Unit Kuznestova @ 2.60

Canas - Korolev

Korolev playing some decent tennis this week although his serving is a bizarre mixture of dfs and aces. Canas has been solid from the baseline has usual but his serving is patchy. I’d give Canas a huge edge here in experience – Korolev is improving fast (4 of his 6 ATP quarter finals are in 2007) but he lacks the bit of nous to beat top 20 players regularly (he is W1 L5 in those QFs – Canas has won 3 of his 4 ATP QFs (beating Robredo, Calleri and Simon) and his career record of W24 L10 at this stage is very very good. Experience and solidity from the baseline to tell as Korolev’s serve comes under pressure.

2 Units Canas @ 1.51

[Peter Orchard]

A week, Wittman, when we´ve seen Bartoli go from Wimbledon heroine to Marseille hooker?
I don´t agree with you. She´s had a brilliant season and she should be content with what she´s done. However, she´ll create disgruntled opposition when she doesn´t perform as expected but you´ll know that she met a girl (Radwanska) who´s moment had come and the Pole´s slow learning curve on the surface will have thrown many.

I don´t know how she relates in the locker room and I suggest you don´t either.

Otherwise, I think Kuznetsova has played some brilliant tennis this week and will be too good for Serena and her dodgey calf: Jankovic will beat Petrova if she wants to and besides, Nadia won the Porsche last year!; easy to accept that Bondarenko will have replayed the win over Ivanovic in her head and declared her abilities exposed and the mousey-rat-fink-Belgian-dental-assistent will expose a variable Dements.

[Wittmann 44]

You’ve a very bad habit Peter of putting words in my mouth. I’m not sure where you feel I implied she was either a heroine or a hooker. If I said she sucks cock for a living with sailors and legionnaires fair enough but otherwise all you should take from what I said is that I don’t like her.

For your information she was never a Wimbeldon heroine to me. I took a pounding on her against Dementieva although I have backed her recently and clawed back some of that. I do think she is a freak SLAM finalist and I’m willing to lay you decent money that she will never make another. I’ll lay you €50 at 10/1 if you are game. I’d say well done to her for her final appearance and if you go back to the Wimbeldon thread you will probably see I did say that. One swallow does not make a summer anywhere however and I think she is a flash in the pan in terms of the top 10. I also stand over my comments regarding her behaviour. She verbally abused the linesman in Luxembourg and her gamesmanship and slow playing grates. Abusing someone from a position of power who cannot answer back ranks low on the barometer of personal behaviour for me.

Comments I made regarding her weight and conditioning I would also stand over. My loss coloured my words but she is in my view overweight and her litany of injuries would support this which is not helped by a crazy schedule.

I would also say that if you can watch a Bartoli match and see hr going behind that she is definitely a player to get on the other side of – her body language is abysmal – biggest in running win of the year was in backing Yuan in Toronto when Bartoli had a look that would have turned milk sour having lost the first set.

I don´t know how she relates in the locker room and I suggest you don´t either.

True – hearsay won’t stand up in court. It is a matter of record that she said other players were out to get her and that she felt she had a target on her back. Persecution complex? Moi?

I would agree that she has had a brilliant season probably her best yet with Wimbeldon - although it should also be pointed out that she won nothing when she managed 3 event wins last year

[Wittmann 44]

Incidentally the WTA website gives Bartol’s weight as 58kg. I’d find that hard to believe. My missus is 55kg and the same height as Bartoli and there is no way Bartoli is only 3kg heavier.

At the risk of getting hung up on her looking back at some older pictures of her she looked in better shape weight wise last year. Weight stops horses/trains as they say in the sport of kings

[Peter Orchard]

She was basically a challenger player last year and we shouldn´t forget that. Agnes Szavay was also a challenger player and though I believe the Hungarian to be the bigger talent, a girl who reaches a Wimbledon final in her first full year on the circuit would probably satisfy most wannabees.
My own opinion about the Bartoli game is that the serve will either make or break her WTA future. It seems to work at the moment and may even, physiologically speaking, ensure her an injury free future.
Who knows?

I agree that a coupla kilos less would make her more mobile but in the same vein, add a couple of kilos to my pet tennis subject, the Chakvetadze body, (which lacks that extra 10% power) and you have the essence of the female body waxing and waning under huge hormonal pressures. Who has the answers?
Not me.

[Wittmann 44]

Final 2 points re Bartoli

I agree with you about Bartoli's serve being key. Thing is it seems to go through a lot of subtle changes. I think her father is a tinkerer which mightn't always be a good thing.

To drag the conversation down a bit re the female body and tennis players if I didn't dislike her Bartoli is actually a body type I prefer woman wise and I wouldn't throw her out of bed for eating croissants . I'm not sure what Freud would have to say about all that mental baggage but make of that what you will

[Peter Orchard]

The ladies circuit is peppered with little girls who have daddy courtside and prgrammed as "coach" in the official blurb.
What lots of these girls need is to get away from mommy and daddy and develop their tennis.
Dementieva needs to send her mum home and find some real coaching.
Sharapova may well find some improvement too.
Bartoli is ideally placed to kick dad into touch and move on

Tough ask for girls who´s only hero is dad.

Bartoli is actually a body type I prefer woman wise and I wouldn't throw her out of bed for eating croissants

Waking up in the morning with crumbs under your arse is quite Joycean.
And very Irish Only kidding

[Wittmann 44]

Going to watch Tsonga and Murray now and have an interest bet

Fancy Murray here - excellent big match temperament - great record when it matters at this stage - he is 10-4 at QF and W4 L1 on indoor. The court is apparently playing slow as well which won't help Tsonga whose serve and volley game is more suited to faster surfaces. The Frenchman is a great athlete but can be patchy as dropped sets in the first and second round shows. The ginger one for me.

1.75 Units Murray @ 1.61

[Wittmann 44]

Nice end to the week with 3 from 4 on my last betting day. Good performance all round and nice to make a WTA profir however small again.

1 Unit Petrova @ 2.90 -1 Unit
1 Unit Kuznestova @ 2.60 +1.52 Units

WTA Staked 18.75 Units
WTA Profit +1.40 Units

2 Units Canas @ 1.51 +0.97 Units
1.75 Units Murray @ 1.61 +1.01 Units

ATP staked 18.75 Units
ATP Profit +7.35 Units

Event Staked 57.50 Units
Event Profit +8.76 Units (+15.23%)

=========================

Year to Date Staked 791.19 Units
Year to Date Profit +49.15 Units

[mord]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Nice end to the week with 3 from 4 on my last betting day. Good performance all round and nice to make a WTA profir however small again.

1 Unit Petrova @ 2.90 -1 Unit
1 Unit Kuznestova @ 2.60 +1.52 Units

WTA Staked 18.75 Units
WTA Profit +1.40 Units

2 Units Canas @ 1.51 +0.97 Units
1.75 Units Murray @ 1.61 +1.01 Units

ATP staked 18.75 Units
ATP Profit +7.35 Units

Event Staked 57.50 Units
Event Profit +8.76 Units (+15.23%)

=========================

Year to Date Staked 791.19 Units
Year to Date Profit +49.15 Units

nice mate
I hope that next week will be also successful