Tennis 24th - 29th Sept (ATP Mumbai & Bangkok, WTA Luxembourg, Seoul and Gungzahao)

[Wittmann 44]

Very busy the last few weeks but things quieting down so I might get some punting done. Last two weeks were losers so hoping to turn things around.

ATP (Thailand) (Indoor hard)
http://www.thailandopen.org/images/top-black.jpg

ATP (Mumbai) (Hard)
Kingfisher Airlines :: Tennis Open 2007

WTA (Luxembourg) (Indoor Hard)
Fortis Championships Luxembourg Home

WTA (Seoul) (Hard)
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WTA (Gungzahoa) (Hard)

[Wittmann 44]

Missed most of todays games but one left of interest

Dev Vananna - Foggini (Mumbai)

Dev is an Inidan player playing in the US on a scholarship at the moment where is main claim o fame is beating the giant serving Isner in the US college finals this year. He hasn't played much on the main tour but at hoem against Fogini who is not really known as a hardcourter he is worth a small sniff.

Lay Foggini @ 1.35 (0.5 Units Risked)

[Wittmann 44]

Tied up with work stuff last night again so missed much of the morning games. Some from later today

IN Luxembourg

Peer-Zvonereva

Peer trails 2-0 in the h to h but she has stood still (and suffered a number of bad injuries) since the last meeting early 2006 while Peer has broken into the top 20 and taken out some fairly decent players in the last few months. Peer easily beat the potentially tricky Safararova yesterday while Zvonereva muddled through in 3 against Georges in a game littered with ues. Both hit the ball hard but Peer is probably slightly more accurate and her serve is a lot more solid. Should be close but I fancy the Israeli to nick this.

2.25 Units Peer @ 1.67

Azarenka-Petrova

Petrova after a poor summer season on hardcourt in the US goes back to probably her best surface – 4 of her 8 titles have come indoors although she has a poor enough record here (1 QF in 3 efforts). Her season has been dogged by back problems and the fact that she chose to miss the short Asian tour suggests that she was concentrating on resolving fitness issues. Azarenka is on a 2007 roll and showed her grit yesterday when coming from a break down at 5-3 in the second set to win the second and romp the third. She has very little experience on this surface but she doesn’t fear anyone as her great US Open run demonstrates. If Petova’s serve fires the fast surface should give her lots of cheap points. I think she will have to be somewhat rusty and Azarenka will have her digging deep.

0.75 Units Azarenka @ 3.15
0.25 Units Petrova 2-1 @ 4.80

Thaliand

Chen-Hewitt

Hewitt played in Serbia last week and came away with a bad infection that has seen him bed ridden for the alst few days. This is a purely speculative play on him not finishing here. Chen is under normal circumstances cannon fodder. Hewitt is down to play Tokyo next week and might not burst a gut here.
Lay Hewitt @ 1.05 0.25 Units Risked

[mord]

Thanks for Azarenka! Mega easy with great odds

[Wittmann 44]

Thanks Mord. Petrova is struggling very badly with a back injury at the moment. She’s worth opposing for the foreseeable future. Peer unfortunately lost despite winning the first set. Update after tomorrows games.

The Korean games start at 3 UK time and the Thailand games at 6.00

Bangkok

Verdasco-Dancevic

Danecvic on his recent great summer run beat Verdasco in his native Canad despite losing the first set in that game. He came from a break down third set to continue his great h to h against Del Potro but to me he looks too short against Verdasco here. A lot depends on which Verdasco turns up here but if he turns up in the mood he will have too much for Dancevic who is very serve reliant. However Verdasco isn’t to be relied on in tight games in my view. Dancevic does boast a reasonable record against lefties (W4 L5 on ATP events) and interestingly enough of his 9 3 set games against lefties a whopping seven went to a third set. This looks another close one but I can’t see can’t see either player running away with it. I’d like to have a bet on total games but that’s unfortunately not available. Instead it should go to 3.

3 Sets @ 2.30 (Gamebookers) 1.50 Units


Wang-Lindahl

Wang beat King in a game that must have been fairly amusing for the commentators while young Aussie Linadhl pulled off a major shock in his first ATP event by beating Querry whose serve misfired badly. Wang is strictly journeyman but I’d still have to fancy him here given that bar yesterday’s result Lindahl has gone W4 L13 against top 200 players. Wang made the QF here in 2005 and has had a fairly decent Challenge year with 2 wins and one final appearance. His experience should prove the difference here.

2.25 Units Wang @ 1.74

Haas-Mahut

Haas was apparently a very reluctant traveller here – he faced a hefty sanction for withdrawing late and he made heavy weather of the game against Spadea whom he had a previous excellent 6-2 record over. Mahut eased past Fleishman first round and beat Haas in teo on their previous outdoor hardcourt meeting summer 2006. The Frenchmans serve and volley style is fairly well suited to this surface and he has a big serve when he is serving well. Definite questions over Tommys motivation make Mahut look very tasty here.

1 Unit Mahut @ 3.10


Luxembourg

Bartoli-Bammer

Both ladies scored very easy first round wins over decent opposition but Bartoli’s power makes me lean towards her here. They have split their two other meetings (the hardcourt outdoor won by Bammer). I watched highlights of BArtoli this evening and she was definitely moving a lot better than she has been recently which suggests her injury worries might be behind her. Both previous meetings have gone to three and I wouldn’t rule it out again.

3 Sets @ 2.10 (Gamebookers) 1.50 Units

Schiavone-Golovin

Golovin looks very underpriced here at 1.66 – she has come of a win in the Czech Republic but Schiavone likes this surface and this event (final 06 and QF 05). They have split their 4 meetings (and the two outdoor hardcourt meetings). Their indoor ratings of 8 and 14 respectively show how close their records are indoord. This looks a very 50: 50 game to me which makes the Italian a decent shout here.

1.50 Units Schiavone @ 2.50

Seoul

Danildou-Rolle

Big difference in class here. Danildou is a great trier and is the defending champion and Rolle hasn’t convinced the few times I have seen her. Danildou typically does well in events that she has done well in previous years and is good at defending her points.

2 Units Danildou @ 1.41

Domachowska-Bremond

Big looking price on Domachowksa here – Bremond is having an abysmal year (W 8 L 22)and she lost to the Polish girl on carpet in two sets early 2006 which to me makes the odds of 1.84 on the Pole very nice looking. Bremond just about beat Nakamura in a terrible 3 setter first round where she scored less points and created less chances but was marginally better in the two tbs, Domachowksa made the final here in 2004 and while fatigue is an issue (she has played qualifying) I think that Bremond who hasn’t won back to back games since November 2006 will crumble again.

3 Units Domachowska @ 1.84


Pennetta-Morita

Pennetta not on her favourite surface but with a massive edge in experience. After a poor summer when tabloid rumours about her on off relationship with Moya set her back a lot she will view this as a chance to get a few decent results prior to year end – Morita has played only 1 ATP QF which she got mangled by Hantchova 2 & 1. Pennetta is not in that class on this surface but she has won 8 from 12 since 2006 and should play the key points better.

1.75 Units Pennetta @ 1.51

Yuan-KIrilenko

Very short price on the very attractive Kirilenko. She couldn’t kick snow off a rope earlier this year and she has played a lot of tennis in very hot conditions over the last 10 days.

Lay Kirilenko @ 1.15 (0.25 Units Risked)

[Peter Orchard]

Nice write ups as usual, Wittmann and with you on opposing some of last week´s big performers.
However, your geography lets you down: Golovin was nowhere near Czechia when she won last weekend; she was in the former Yugoslavia: in Slovenia, to be more precise. And to be perfectly accurate; just a cough and a spit from Trieste or a bicycle ride from the Italian border.

[mord]

Thanks again Wittmann, I didn´t catch those morning games, but Mahut - again great tip with great odds now I´m waiting for Schiavone game to get another all green on my screen

[engineer]

Wow, Wittmann you killed the bookies with these tips. Bammer v Bartoli is likely to go to 3rd set.
Congratulations

[Wittmann 44]

Some decent results so far this week mean I’m up a nice bit so far. I’ve been looking over my results for the last few weeks nad found that its 6 events since I’ve made a profit in the ladies section. Gone absolutely to pot. Good mens selections have been keeping me in profit but its something I’m going to look at. I probably watch more WTA than ATP as well but anyway.

Today

Bangkok

Karlovic-Berdych

Given the serving form Ivom is in and a very fast surface quotes of over 3s hardly do him justice. Berdy has had problems with big servers in the past but the problem is that I find it hard to see Ivo having the skills to get a break unless Berdych has a seriously poor service game. Having said that if Karlovic serves even at 80% of what he can you’d have to think he will get at least to a tb – smart play here for me is to go long on total games as even a tb in one set might carry you over the 21.5 game line in two sets – unfortunately not available with any of my accounts so I’m going with another 3 setter.

1.25 Units 3 Sets @ 2.30 (Gamebookers)

Mahut-Verdasco

Although Verdasco dropped the first set looking at the stats it seems to have been a concentration issue as much as anything given how straightforward then second and third for him against Dancevbic were. Mahut had a morale boosting win against a very disinterested Tommy Haas and after some decent form on this surface recently will fancy his chances of an upset - Mahut’s style of play isn’t a million miles away from Dancevic only with a lot more quality and if the Frenchman can get to the net often enough behind a solid serve I think he will force the errors. Mahut was a finalist in the large indoor challenger in Orelans 10 days ago.

1.25 Units Mahut @ 2.24

Mumbai

Rochus-Kiefer

I like the look of the pocket rocket here – he holds a 2-1 h to h (won both on hardcourt) over Kiefer who has been dogged with injury worries this season and who has only won 3 in a row this year twice in nine efforts. Olly has had injury problems of his own but he seems to be finindg some form again after a very poor summer – he won the Orelans challenger (indoor hard) about 10 days ago and might fnally have put his injury worries behind him. Kiefer has been complaining about the intense heat and at the prices he is unbackable for me. Value with Olly who should chase everything down.

1 Unit Rochus @ 2.76

Gungzhao

GArrigues-Rodinova

Garrigues has been very solid for at least the last year and has remained almost constantly around the 30 rank which is testament to her steady nature – she is a beaten finalist here from 2006 and is of course under minor pressure to defend those points. This is a match that should suit her. Rodinbova has no real weapons and although this is her best surface arguably you still have to go all the way back to 2006 to find her last QF appearance. She has also only won 3 in a row once this season and against a steady competitor like Garrigues (W5 L3 in QF since 2006) you’d have to fancy the experience of the Spaniard at the business end of events to have the edge. There ‘s no value on the outright. Of more interest is a correct score bet

To win 1st set 6-3 Garrigues .25 @ 4/1
To win 1st set 6-4 Garrigues .75 @ 6/1

Both Gamebookers

Seoul

Danildou-Svazay

Svazay should win this – she’s a better player than Danildou who gives it her all but is really nothing special as her poor record against the top 20 - 25 shows. They went to 3 in August on outdoor hardcourt with Svazay just about nicking a marathon game . The young Hungarian has played a lot of tennis this last 10 days given she won in Bejing and I feel that she could suffere somewhat tomorrow if Danildou can keep it close and make her run. The Greek was a shock winner here last year and given she took a set off Szavazy in similar circumstances in August there is a greater chance that laid 1.69 that she can repeat the feat here.

Lay Svazazy 2-0 @ 1.69 1 Unit RIsked

[Wittmann 44]

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2.25 Units Peer @ 1.67 -2.25 Units
0.75 Units Azarenka @ 3.15 +1.53 Units
0.25 Units Petrova 2-1 @ 4.80 -0.25 Units
3 Sets BArtoli-Bammer @ 2.10 (Gamebookers) 1.50 Units -1.50 Units
1.50 Units Schiavone @ 2.50 -1.50 Units
2 Units Danildou @ 1.41 +0.78 Units
3 Units Domachowska @ 1.84 +2.40 Units
1.75 Units Pennetta @ 1.51 +0.85 Units
Lay Kirilenko @ 1.15 (0.25 Units Risked) -0.25 Units

WTA Staked 13.25 Units
WTA Loss -0.19 Units

Lay Foggini @ 1.35 (0.5 Units Risked) -0.5 Units
Lay Hewitt @ 1.05 0.25 Units Risked -0.25 Units
3 Sets (Verdasco-Dancevic) @ 2.30 (Gamebookers) 1.50 Units +1.95 Units
2.25 Units Wang @ 1.74 +1.58 Unis
1 Unit Mahut @ 3.10 +2Units

Atp staked 5.50 Units
STP Profit +4.78 Units

[Peter Orchard]

The Bartoli girl walked through the defending champion with no little skill but probably a huge portion of that French school of old soldier-ism promulgated by Guy Monfils.

Kinda sad to see such a talent as Bartoli limping around unneccessarily but well done Marion.
I think.

[Wittmann 44]

Fcukity fcuk fcuk. Today sucked big time. A winning bet voided and another that looked certain to be one also voided – in a third a player a set and a break up loses.

Mahut manages to blow a set lead (80% of players convert from this situation). To add insult to injury I had considered backing him with 3 games (won) and backing 3 sets as well (won).



Incidentally there are worrying signs of Verdasco growing a spine in recent games – that’s his second come from behind win against two big hitters and he’s had some decent summer results. Maybe the mercurial one is poised to make a breakthrough?

I thought Svazay was vulnerable. I could have laid her at a hugely tasty 1.30 but instead laid her 2-0 score. She retired after winning first and losing second to void a winning bet. For fcuks sake.

Rochus wins by Kiefer’s retirement when serving at 4-1 up – first set with the Big Blue though so another bet in a winning situation voided. All I needed was for Kiefer to retire in the second set but we couldn’t have that

Of 8 retirements this last 6 months I’ve been involved in only 1 has gone my way.

Finally Karlovioc and Berdych which I felt would go over 21.5 did of course - no bookie offered it and I decided that 3 sets was a good compromise. It wasn't. Days like this make me wonder why I bet


1.25 Units 3 Sets (Berdych-Karlovic) @ 2.30 -1.25 Units
1.25 Units Mahut @ 2.24 -1.25 Units -1.25 Units
1 Unit Rochus @ 2.76 - VOID

Atp staked 9.00 Units
STP Profit +2.28 Units

To win 1st set 6-3 Garrigues .25 @ 4/1 -0.25 Units
To win 1st set 6-4 Garrigues .75 @ 6/1 -0.75 Units
Lay Svazazy 2-0 @ 1.69 1 Unit Risked – VOID

WTA Staked 14.25 Units
WTA Loss -1.19 Units

[Wittmann 44]

For tomorrow

Bangkok

Verdasco-Tursonov

I’m going to side with Verdasco here which has usually not brought me much luck but I think in a match that looks very 50:50 he represents value as the dog. Tursnov on song is hard to stop with his big forehand but he is prone to go walkabouts and when he misfires he does so pretty badly. He’s dropped sets to Wang and Eschauer already here and while Verdasco has also dropped sets they were to the slightly more formidable Mahut and Dancevic. He has been in good form all summer and I think if he serves like he has all week he had a real chance here.

1.25 Units Risked Lay Tursonov @ 1.85

Mumbai

Schuttler-Rochus

Two players that haven’t contested an ATP SF in quite a while meet here due to opponents suffering from various ailments in the QF. Olly Rochus might have turned his season around somewhat recently but I can’t forget all his terrible games this past year. Schuettler will chase everything and this is probably a surface that suits him better than the minute Belgian. At the prices I can support the German.

0.75 Units Lay Rochus @ 1.59

Seoul

Kirilenko-Danildou

Danildou with an excellent chance of repeating her win here last year if she can edge out a resurgent Kirilenko. The Russian is probably the more talented player but Danildou is steadier mentally and fatigue will start to become an issue for Kirilenko who has played 8 games in the last 10 days in very muggy and hot conditions. Svazay with a similar schedule found the going tough today and I’d expect Danildou to run for everything again here today – the Greek is fit and the price looks too big for me.

1 Unit Danildou @ 2.74

Gungzhao

Razzano-Cibulkova

Big difference in class here IMO. Razzano has blossomed recently and a list of her recent defeats (Radawanks, Williams, Jankovic, Petrova) shows the level of players that it takes to beat her at the moment – Razzano is just 2-5 in WTA SFs but both those wins have come on hardcourt and this is a first WTA SF for Cibilkova and I would imagine that Razzano in addition to being in the better form has a significant edge in experience – the French girl should be too solid here.

1.75 Units RAzzano @1.49

[Dach]

I agree with all except Razzano pick . Cibulkova is not without chances . I smell upset here.

[Wittmann 44]

Raining outside so going to stay in and watch the SFs in Luxembourg. Having the dreaded interest bet as well

Hancthova-BArtoli

This should be as tight as their 3 set summer meeting on grass. BArtoli showing signs of shaking of her post Wimbeldon blues but she meets a player who has not played as well in a number of years - her last two defeats were at the SF stage to players who went on to win the events (Davenport and Kirlenko). BArtoli was aided immenseley in her QF by some wayward serving and dfs in the double figures by a lethargic Chekevatdze. Hantchova will match her for power and I think the leggy blonde is a lot less mentall fragile than she used be - she has won 11 from 15 btbs this year (Bartolis is 4 from 8) and that might be the difference in a match that could go down to a few crucial points.

1.50 Units Hantchova @ 1.85