Tennis 10-16th September, Beijing, Bucharest (ATP) & Bali (WTA)

[Peter Orchard]

Go nic, gimme your bebbies.

[Peter Orchard]

1

[Wittmann 44]

Much better today. First womans selection of the week to come in with an excellent win for Errani - reward is a nasty looking SF with ffice:smarttags" />Davenport who continued her excellent record against Jankovic with a great 3 set win. Managed to back Hanescu i/r as Starace wasn’t getting anywhere to ease that loss slightlyfficeffice" />

1.25 Units Ljubcic @ 2.10 +1.31 Units
2 Units Starace @ 1.66 -2 Units
2 Units Monfils @ 1.46 +0.88 Units
2 Units Simon @ 1.42 +0.80 Units

ATP Staked 19.50 Units
ATP Profit +1.44 Units

1 Unit Risked Lay Nakamura @ 1.60 +1.59 Units

WTA Staked 8.75 Units
WTA Loss -6.16 Units

[Wittmann 44]

SF stages tomorrow and some nice looking match ups –

In Bucharest

Simon-Berlocq

Very surprised at the price on Simon here – he went off today at 1.43 (a high price) against Armando and I wouldn’t rate Berlocq a whole lot more than him so the 1.53 looks decent value. This is the furthest that Berlocq has ever gotten into an ATP tour and he will surely be feeling the pressure. His wins this week have been against the tired (Santoro) and the dodgy (everyone else) and this looks a big step up. He has plyed his trade mainly in the Challenge tour and he really doesn’t have much to trouble the better players than that. Simon has been in solid form this week and should be far too solid from the baseline here – Simon has won 4 of his 6 SFs since 2006 with 1 defeat to Robredo and the other to a retirement .

2 Units Simon @ 1.53

Bejing

Gonzalez-Ljubcic

Ljubcic got out of jail against bagdatis in a match that was low in quality from the poor quality live streaming I saw. The big Croats serve seems to have deserted him and only for Baggy’s poor serving he would have been dead and buried as his general play was very poor. Gonzo stalled in the second set when serving for the match and left Lee take it to three. He closed out easily enough and as the Chilean seems to be getting his confidence back and would given his recent run of dire form want this a lot more he appeals here at odds against in what looks a very 50:50 match. He has better mobility and if his forehand finds the range I don’t think Ljube will chase many balls down. H to H is 4-3 for the Ljube but Gonzo has won both outdoor hardcourt matches.

1.25 Units Gonzalez @ 2.26

I’m wavering over Hanescu at a nice price – he is at home and Monfils has played a lot of tennis. The 2-0 h to h against him deters me as does Monfils cracking SF record. Hansecu has lost all 3 TAP SF he has contested (including all here). The opposition was better than Monfils in all cases and I think the Romanian might at worst nick a set. Going tow ait for more liquidity before I make my mind up here.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Gonzo stalled in the second set when serving for the match and left Lee take it to three. He closed out easily enough and as the Chilean seems to be getting his confidence back

Not sure if you saw the pattern of the match, Wittmann, but Gonzalez was extremely erratic. Was 5-0 up first set before letting Lee back to 5-5, then taking it 7-5. In the second set as you say he served for the match at 5-3 and let that slip. Then in the tie-break he fought back from 6-1 down to save the first 4 set points, 2 of them on Lee's serve, then lost the next point on his own serve to give Lee the set.

I was going to say in this post that despite the above, that's not to say Gonzalez won't go on to win it, just that I'm not convinced his confidence is back. And then I saw that it's already been played and Gonzalez won Nice start to the day for you anyway

[kompressaur]

Join us and spend your VCASH
Tennis - China Open Final

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good luck

[Wittmann 44]

Simon and Ljubcic both win both win but a struggle for each. Should have sided with Hanescu who beat Monfils at nearly 3.20 but bottled it in the end. One final bet for the week - Gonzo was lucky to beat Ljucbic and he has ridden his luck all week. Robredo affter a shocking few weeks looks like he might have hit form at leats with some decent wins in China. This is a 50:50 to me and Tommy loos alue as the dog.


1.50 Units Robredo @ 2.28

2 Units Simon @ 1.53 +1.01 Units
1.25 Units Gonzalez @ 2.26 +1.50 Units

ATP Staked 22.75 Units
ATP Profit +3.94 Units

WTA Staked 8.75 Units
WTA Loss -6.16 Units

[Wittmann 44]

Almost s great comeback but Robredo loses in 3 although he was never really in it. Well done Lindsay Devenport - new mommy and tour win on her first start back.

1.50 Units Robredo @ 2.28 -1.50 Units

ATP Staked 24.25 Units
ATP Profit +2.44 Units

WTA Staked 8.75 Units
WTA Loss -7.76 Units

TOtal Staked 33 Units
Total Loss 5.22 Units (-16%)

Will post updated total for year later tonight but is currently around 40 units profit (+6%) since I started posting here although I could do without this slump

[engineer]

Damn, we left the thread well alone...
Today I'm laying Hingis against Shuai Peng at 1.41.
The Swiss Miss won easily yesterday, great returns she hitted, but her opponent was crap... Hingis somehow cannot convince me that she is able of achieving something special at the moment. She manages to beat weaker opponents, but a decent players could stop her without any problems. I give credits to Peng to start good that game and soon there will be good trading possibilities at least.
Lay Hingis 1.5 pts

Also could be interested in laying Pennetta, who showed at US open that she's not in her best mental condition.
And Szavay shouldn't be that short - 1.25 is a funny price against Cibulkova. I expect the Hungarian to have a little fall down these months, due to physical and psychological tension, so I'll go against her now - lay Szavay, 1 pt.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by engineer

Damn, we left the thread well alone...
Today I'm laying Hingis against Shuai Peng at 1.41.
The Swiss Miss won easily yesterday, great returns she hitted, but her opponent was crap... Hingis somehow cannot convince me that she is able of achieving something special at the moment. She manages to beat weaker opponents, but a decent players could stop her without any problems. I give credits to Peng to start good that game and soon there will be good trading possibilities at least.
Lay Hingis 1.5 pts

Nice one Engineer

[engineer]

Nothing stands out for me today, thought about a small lay of Hantuhova at 1.13, since she shouldn't be that short in any game. But Rodionova is in too shitey form and I wouldn't bother myself with women's tennis today...........





BTW, the price for Shaugnessy is not bad at all, 3.75...., but.... no thanks.

[engineer]

I'll go with Shuai Peng one more time against Mauresmo today in China. The French haven't been looking bad, but I'll take the Chinese here. She destroyed Hingis with no mercy and she should be ready to give Mauresmo a good performance. Odds over 4 are not to be missed... Peng 1 pt.

Let's go to India... Mmmm, isn't the match Pennetta - Kirilenko a nice beautiful one to watch... Pity that no TV is showing these games.
I thought that the Italian should be on a downtrend, but she's been trying to disprove me and is playing solid tennis.
Also Kirilenko does and this looks like 50-50 match to me.
So, at odds 3.05 I'm taking Pennetta, unfortunately one of them will leave the tournament, let's try to make some profit at least...
Pennetta - 2 pts

[engineer]

And one more in the late afternoon - lay Bammer against Dulko at 1.31 - 1.5pts

I'll try to find more time to open a thread fot the Davis Cup...
England is hosting Croatia at Wimbledon's grass, eh...