US Open - 27th August to 9th September

[Wittmann 44]

Draws are up for the US Open

Mens

http://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/draws/ms/msdraw.pdf

Womens

http://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/draws/ws/wsdraw.pdf

Very quick thoughts.

Looking at the men’s Federer must be fairly happy – Djoko is in the bottom ½ and the major seeds (Roddick, Blake and Davydenko) he holds significant leads over. Gasquet who is a very dangerous floater might not be 100% and Berdych who on his day might be difficult seems out of form.
Andy Murray should be able to make the third round with a qualifier up first and a meeting with either Bjorkman or Guzman next. Beating a likely opponent of Canas 3rd round looks a big ask though in his current form.

In the 3rd quarter Djokovic and Hewitt look most likely to make the QF although Djokovic has a terrible first round start against Ancic in what should be an interesting “local” derby. Moyas in great form but I don ‘t think the veteran has the legs to mount a serious challenger here. Youznhy should go well.

Nadal looks vulnerable as he seems to be repeating last season’s post SW19 slump. Just as well for him then that many of the seeds look out of sorts here as well – Lube can’t kick snow off a rope at the moment, ditto Gonzalez, Chela and Safin. Only Ferrer is showing anything at all. It will be interesting to see how Nalbandian goes. He has showed sign of a renewed appetitie recently but he is staring a 3rd round against old foe Ferrer and might not particularly relish that.

More detailed thoughts later.

[Peter Orchard]

I see a couple of banana skins in the 1st round:

Goldstein - Grosjean 3,05
Bolelli - Benneteau 3,85

The Frenchman has had an awful season and I can´t see any reason it should suddenly all come right for him. Goldstein isn´t a big mountain but he´s on home soil and he´ll fancy his chances.

Otherwise, I´ve picked out a few qualifiers to do well at the first hurdle:

Petzschner - Becker 2,76
Cetkovska - Craybas 2,24
Makerova - Schruff 1,82
Jidkova - Zvonareva 4,1
One of my favourite ladies but 1st match after a 5 month lay off for Vera!

and on the outrights I´ve tossed a quid at Kiefer @ 920,00.
He has Davy, Blake and Haas in his quarter - let´s hope he´s fit!

[Wittmann 44]

I have a new project landed on me last Friday and I might be able to put much time in here over the next week or two unfortunately. The joys of being your own boss……………

Like the look of Peter’s longshot Goldstein whose best results have all come on US hardcourt. Grosjean is having a horrible year, has split from his coach and has never done anything much here. I would be wary of Bolelli – he has pulled from a number of summer events with injuries and while he has a decent serve I think that Benneteau will be too steady for him.

Best of luck everyone.

[Beanie]

Nalbandian @ 310 and Ferrer @ 480 on the outrights. This pair have more than enough ability to string a few results together whereas most of the other more realistic outsiders have questionable form/injury concerns.

[rcgills]

I'm interested in Ferrer too, Beanie, but past experience has told me that if I back him now at 480, by Wednesday he'll be something like 550 Nothing to do with his ability, I just have this knack of backing players just before their price starts rising. In any case, I can't see his price dropping on the basis of getting past Mayer in round 1, so I'll hold fire for a little bit before backing him, see what happens.

Only outright bet for me at the moment is Almagro at 1000, with a view to laying off after a few rounds. Has started to find some hard court form, with straight set wins over Ljubicic and Nieminen in Cincinatti, plus taking a set off of Federer. Draw's not been too unkind on him - Kuznetsov first up, then either Luczak or Horna, followed by Davydenko in R3 if all goes to plan. All depends on which Davydenko turns up of course. This being a Grand Slam, it'll presumably be the serious Davydenko, but I certainly don't think he's unbeatable.

In the womens, may have been interested in Dementieva, but the fact she withdrew from the final in New Haven, together with the fact she's in a quarter with Jankovic and Ivanovic, is enough to put me off. Kuznetsova in decent form and a past winner here could be worth considering, but only 23 available at the moment on Betfair, would want a bit bigger than that. For longer shots, Szavay has got a very decent draw, I think, although her exertions in New Haven may count against her. And Azarenka maybe worth a small interest bet with a view to laying back later.

Gone for a few odds against players in today's R1 matches - Kendrick in the mens and Errani, Chan and Olaru in the womens.

[Peter Orchard]

Four more qualifiers with chances tonight?

O Sanchez - Granville 2,14
Perebiynis - Pin 2,60
Kloesel - Szavay 4,90
Gagliardi - Azarenka 5,80


I risk upsetting the Azarenka groupies here but that price is way too big.

And Szavay played 7 matches last week before retiring in the 8th on Saturday. Question for her is: is she rested? Will her 19 year old body be restored in time?

[engineer]

Hmm, obviously Shahar Peer has serious injury problems - odds for her opponent Tu are dropping really fast, now ~2.60-2.70. Still can't find more info, but that game interests me now. If Peer does have some injury it's worth backing Tu, but the value ain't that great now.

[rcgills]

Looks like you had a few nice results yesterday, Peter . Errani and Olaru did the business for me, although Kendrick and Chan losing meant I only made a small profit.

As one of the "Azarenka groupies" , I wouldn't say you've upset me, but nor do I think much of Gagliardi's chances. She has an absolutely shocking record at the US Open. From 1997 to 2004 she qualified for the 1st round automatically due to her ranking, and she lost in the first round in all 8 of those years, 4 of them to players ranked lower than her, and winning a grand total of 1 set in the process. In 2005 she came through the qualifiers, but lost in the 1st round proper, and in 2006 she didn't make it through the qualifiers.

As for Szavay, I suspect/hope you may have answered your own question - it's a 19 year old body. If it was a 30+ year old, who knows, but surely the youth of today can cope with such things, can't they?

Disclaimer*: All of the above may or may not be wishful thinking based on the fact that I've backed Szavay at 200 and Azarenka at 680 on the outrights.

Only two bets for me today, both on outsiders. Molik has a 3-2 H2H lead against Srebotnik, and while Srebotnik has won the last 2 (with Molik's last win coming in 2004), Molik has won all 3 hard court meetings. I certainly wouldn't make Srebotnik a 1.32 shot, and have laid her at that price.

And think Wozniak v Medina Garrigues may be closer than the odds suggest, have laid MG 2-0 at 1.86

[Beanie]

Nalbandian and Ferrer available at 330 and 510 just now...looks like you were right rc Still, a price is a price.

As engineer mentioned the injury news on Peer looks serious:

"A moment before the USO, Peer injured her chest bone area (sorry about the lame translation) and is in doubt for her match against Tu.
"I have pains, but I'll try to be as prepared as I can be for the match. Imo, I'll play anyway and give it my all", said Peer.


"Last Tuesday, during practice, the pain worsened, and that forced us to skip the shots that caused pain", said Peer's physio, "the WTA doctor's scan diagnosed inflamation in the joint's cartilage, between the the fifth rib and the connection to the chest bone. Peer received anti- inflamation pills and physiotherapy treatment.

The doctor ordered to decrease the amount of training and let the place rest and heal.
Another go at the practice court closer to the weekend resulted in a similar conclusion: severe pain with no progress at all, despite the daily therapies. Peer didn't train at all on Friday and Saturday, a rest that didn't help and a quick test on Sunday resulted, again, with strong pain and difficulty to hit the ball"

"In another test of the WTA doctor, there was an assumption that the inflamation has worsened, and the doctor said that only a complete rest would do and injuries of this kind could be long ones.
In a mutual decision it was decided not to practice until the day of her match (Tuesday) and then to try and play with a special bandage. Peer will be treated with physiotherapy and stretch drills."

Today (Monday) she may have a go on the tennis court, in order to determine whether she can compete in the USO."

I won't bother with it as bets based on injury whispers are always a bit of a stab in the dark unless you have the most reliable and up to date information, but explains the drift nonetheless.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Nalbandian and Ferrer available at 330 and 510 just now...looks like you were right rc

And guess who looked at Oddschecker yesterday, saw that no bookies had Ferrer priced any higher than 200 and thought "Actually, maybe 480 is a decent enough price on Ferrer after all" and took it, ignoring his own advice in the process I'll learn one day, damn it.

[Chief77]

Gonna take Ljubicic to win 3-0 against Vliegen today @5/4. Vliegen is ranked 84 in the world and has lost 22 of his 36 matches so far this year. Ljubicic is a bit of a choker whjen it comes to the Grand Slams but he's been given a relatively easy start here and I think he can win in staright sets.

Also going to take Jamea Jackson @13/8 to beat Nicole Pratt. Pratt is 34 now and has been steadily falling down the rankings over the past couple of years. She has never progressed beyond the 3rd rd of a grand slam. Jackson on the other hand has been flying up the rankings and is up to 45 now, she got to the 2nd rd last year on her debut and she has a decent chance of progressing again this evening.

Verdict:
Ljubicic to win 3-0 @5/4
Jamea Jackson to bt Nicole Pratt @13/8

[Peter Orchard]

No luck with the qualifier yesterday and he´s probably had his day at these championships.

Dancevic looks the likliest candidate but aside from the serve I´m not sure he has anything else that might irritate Safin.
A bright spot for the set bettor is that Marat doesn´t like to do things the easy way and 3-1, 3-2 look like possibilities.

[Chief77]

Originally Posted by Chief77

Verdict:
Ljubicic to win 3-0 @5/4
Jamea Jackson to bt Nicole Pratt @13/8

Ljubicic won with relative ease and Jackson lost in 3 sets after being a set and a break up in the 2nd. She totally capitulated in the final set and lost 6-0. I'd definitely be interested in taking on Pratt in the next rd.

Today Mad Marat Safin is up against Dancevic. Safin never makes life easy for himself and I'd be surprised if he won this game in a stroll if at all. I'm gonna dutch the 3-1 and 3-2 scorelines @ 15/5 and 5/1 respectively.

Gonna do a fivefold of Isner, Wawrinka, Ginepro Tursunov and Bonderenko @4.5/1 also.

Verdict:
Safin to win 3-1 @14/5
Safin to win 3-2 @5/1
Isner, Wawrinka, Ginepri Tursunov and Bonderenko @4.5/1

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Chief77

Gonna do a fivefold of Isner, Wawrinka, Ginepro Tursunov and Bonderenko @4.5/1 also.

Going by the price I assume that's Alona Bondarenko, Chief? Both the sisters are playing today, Alona against Daniilidou, and Kateryna against Safina. Am on Kateryna Bondarenko today, trails Safina 3-1 on the H2H, but her sole win was the most recent meeting, earlier this month in Los Angeles, and the only one on hard court. 3.75 seems fairly generous.

[Chief77]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Going by the price I assume that's Alona Bondarenko, Chief? Both the sisters are playing today, Alona against Daniilidou, and Kateryna against Safina. Am on Kateryna Bondarenko today, trails Safina 3-1 on the H2H, but her sole win was the most recent meeting, earlier this month in Los Angeles, and the only one on hard court. 3.75 seems fairly generous.

Yep, its Alono that I'm on. Think I may join you with Kateryna rcgills. Like the sound of her.
So now i'm on the two Bondarenkos.