US Open - 27th August to 9th September

[Peter Orchard]

You can usually count the number of Federer dropped sets in a slam on 2 fingers, except in the French and at Wimbledon this year where he dropped 3. Oh, and except when he´s met Kiefer to whom he always gives a set.

Well, Kiefer´s not there and he´s dropped 2 sets so far in New York (to the freakish Isner and the very pretty Lopez) so I reckon he´s not due to drop any more. Which will be very boring.
But fairly profitable.

[edtkh]

47.79pts Henin -2.5 Games (1.83 @ William Hill)

It's hard to see past Henin for this year's US Open and she's been im simply scintillating form. Prior to playing Serena Williams, Henin had dropped just 9 games and even up against a rejuvenated Serena, she literally strolled the second set.

On the back of that, it's hard to see Venus making much of this contest although I don't see the latter playing too badly lately. The -2.5 game handicap looks every bit a snip IMO.

Cheers & Good Luck!

Starting Bank : 100.00pts
Current Bank : 47.79pts
Profit/Loss : -52.21pts

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by rcgills

And another thing, do you use the Quick Reply box or do you click on Reply to Thread?

I normally use the 'Post Reply' button. Anyway, it seems like the bold function has been sorted on the template now...

[Chief77]

Gonna take Henin to win 2-0 11/10. Think shes got too much for Venus and I fancy her to get the job done in straight sets tonight. Henin has been ultra impressive during the tournament and while Venus has played well in snatches, she wasn't too impressed with her against Jankovic.

Verdict: Henin to win 2-0

[edtkh]

87.46pts Henin -4.5 Games-Federer -5.5 Games (3.15 @ William Hill)

Quite simply, the women's final is a mismatch and on the back of the SF performance, Kuznetsova would be flattered even if she started at a +6.5 handicap. Suffice to say, Henin hardly messes about in the final and you've got to fancy her to win this with 5 games to spare.

Similarly, I think too much has been made of Federer's seemingly close encounters against Lopez and Roddick in the last couple of rounds and perhaps, too much of the fact Davydenko has yet to drop a set. Federer -5.5 does look a tad ridiculous considering he'll very much stroll this one with a break in each set which I think will happen.

Cheers & Good Luck!

Starting Bank : 100.00pts
Current Bank : 87.46pts
Profit/Loss : -12.54pts

[Pro Tennis Tips]

Saturday 8Th September 2007
Tennis - US Open 2007
Novak Djokovic Vs David Ferrer

Ferrer is playing his best tennis career, too good this Ferrer on the baseline, without mistakes and with a forhand that gives him so many points, the win against a player as Rafa has gives him so many confidence on his games and on his potentiality and on the quarter of final against Chela we have saw a match that there was not a match and Ferrer beyond to have still offered amazing performances
has demonstrated that he can play also 5-6 hours in a row on incredibles levels and this on this match could be really important.
Novak on this surface is really good, has won the AMS of Montreal beating Federer and also on this tournament he has risked only against Stepanek, that is a player that doesn't give you the rhythm and that it's sure really hard to face, against all the others has won a lot easy and sure for his results, for his value and his performances is clearly the fav of this match, no doubt on that.
But seen the state of shape of David and of course the market line, that is the main goal in betting job, I think that over 3.50 is really too much and of course value, even if is sure that if Novak plays his best tennis he can close it also in 3 sets because on this surface the best Djokovic is better then the best Ferrer, but if the match will be over 3 sets and then long everything can happens and the match will be 2.0/2.0.
The real value that I think true on this match is 1.70-2.40

Selection: David Ferrer
Price: 3.70
Confidence: 5u

Sincerely
Pro Tennis Tips

[rcgills]

Welcome to TDP, Pro tennis tips, and good luck with your pick. No need to start a new thread though when we've already got this one running, so moved your post in here.

[edtkh]

Gonna head over to NY for the final, so thought I'd stick up my picks early for the final match of the tourny.

200pts Federer to beat Djokovic (1.20 @ William Hill)
75.50pts Federer -5.5 Games (1.90 @ William Hill)

As Federer bids to become the first man to win 4 consecutive US Opens, he needs little incentive on this one - all the more so considering the last meeting between the pair ended in a Serb victory in Montreal.

That said, Grand Slams are an entirely different matter and I can't see Djokovic repeating his feat in Montreal against Federer. For a start, the lack of big match experience in the form of Grand Slam finals and Djokovic's suspect consistency (through both fitness and mental toughness) over best-of-5 encounters would render this as pretty much Federer's to lose IMO.

On the back of what I've seen over the past fortnight, I have got a hunch Federer would nick this one fairly comfortably with more than 6 games to spare as Djokovic isn't exactly one of the strongest (not yet anyway) mentally on the tour - there's every chance the Serb could fold if Federer walks the first two and 1.90 for a -5.5 handicap is certainly worth a shout.

Cheers & Good Luck!

Starting Bank : 100.00pts
Current Bank : 275.50pts
Profit/Loss : 175.50pts

[trickrick]

Nice one Edtkh - Hope you enjoy the Final !

[007]

Just how far can Joker go?

He has been on his last legs his last 2 outings but has been fortunate enough that his opponents have not put much pressure on.

Fed will not grant him this in this game. Odds are skinny. Maybe 3-0 and 3-1 a wise move?

[Wittmann 44]

I think Djoko is being slightly underestimated here - I think some of his injury time outs are strategic as much as being genuine injuries. I don't see him winning this but nor do i see him rolling over here. I think he is good enough to at least nick a set. Prices look about right on that one. What might be better value for Fed backers is for him to serve more aces - he is averaed nearly 7 aces a game this year , Djoko is just over 4. In their 3 hartdcourt matches to date the aces count have been (Fed first).

15-6 (hard)
8-6 (hard)
12-7 (hard)

Fed has a better serve and probably more crucially a better return. Better value than the outrights IMO.

3 Units Fed more aces @ 1.29

[Wittmann 44]

.

[Wittmann 44]

Very enjoyable game but should have been closer with poor old Djoko squandering all his break and set points when it mattered.
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Final bet a winner – Fed comfortably outscoring in aces 11-5.

Ended up 6 units down which was a lot better than it looked ten days ago but still disappointing.