US Open - 27th August to 9th September

[Wittmann 44]

Dooes anyone find it amusing that Murray has always suffered with a wrist injury?

Its the topspin he plays with apparently (yeah right Andy )

The "racing post" descibed it as the tennis players answer to the footballers metatarsal injury today

[Chief77]

Originally Posted by Chief77

Verdict:
Safin to win 3-1 @14/5
Safin to win 3-2 @5/1
Isner, Wawrinka, Ginepri Tursunov and Bonderenko @4.5/1

Turnusov screwed me over yesterday. Safin bet was a bit unlucky with 2 of the 3 sets ending in tiebreaks.

First bet for me today is Bjorkman @11/4. Gonna chance him aggainst Murray basically because the Racing Post persuaded me to yesterday!

A potential upset could be Lee against Canas @5/2. I've seen Lee play a good few times over the past couple of months on Americas hard courts and he looks a fine player. Played very well against Blake about this time last month in the Semis.

Finally I'm gonna take Gasquet to win in straight sets @4/6.

Verdict:
Bjorkman @11/4
Lee@5/2
Gasquet to win 3-0 @4/6

[Peter Orchard]

Murray looks backable now surely?

[Peter Orchard]

hold that Murray bet!

[Wittmann 44]

Don't think so Peter. Not sure Murray will be able for a prolonged struggle here.

[Peter Orchard]

If he is to win he´ll have to show us a side of his character that´s been lacking until now.
Need to see the Murray balls here, methinks. Won´t be pretty.

[Wittmann 44]

Pretty poor day all round – I was chasing from early on once big bet Canas pulled a shocker against Lee (not making a single bp chance when going down tamely in three) and Schiavone going down tamely to Prezak (well done Peter). Just about break even with the men due to a late surge with Johannson, Lopez and Koubek all coming home at decent odds.

Bjorkman ran Murray close in a hugely enjoyable game. Murray showed touches of real class but I wouldn’t underestimate Lee either. My speculative long punt at 12s against Tommy Haas got off to a good start with a first set loss for Haas but Petschercezh could not convert his plethora of break chances when it mattered and Tommy survived. I will be looking to oppose him next round against Grosjean who has a good record against him and who saw of Miryni relatively easily today.

Full update later

For tomorrow the balance of the mens second round:

Berrer-Gulbis

These two met on clay in a German challenger which Gulbis edged in 3 back in October – Gulbis made the jump to main tour this year but bar a notable win on clay over Henman at Roland Garros has struggled somewhat. Berrer had some fairly decent hardcourt results in the second half of the year in the US with wins over Fish, Ginepri, Delic and lsoe matches against Monfils and Kiefer. The German isn’t brilliant at anything but is solid from the baselin. The main question is how well he will cope with Gulbis serve which is big when he is on song. I’d attach little to Gulbis win over the dodgy Stracace as the betting on that match showed the Italian was a non tryer. This should be closer and at what I would think looks very 50:50 the German is marginal value.

1.25 Units Berrer @ 2.22

Melzer-Del Potro

Melzer since his comeback from surgery and with a new coach has impressed with recent notable wins over big servers Ancic and Karlovic and a close game against red hot Blake. The Austrian lefty has a good record against the big hitters like Del Potro and although the Argentine has recovered some of his early season sparkle he still looks very short here to me. They had a 5 set thriller in February on carpet which Del POtro won and a similar close game looks likely here with plenty of options to trade taking a position on the dog.

1 Unit Lay Del Potro @ 1.54

Monaco-Sela

Monaco having a banner year in 2007 with 3 clay titles under his belt and signs of some progress on hardcourt recently with wins over Nadal and Lopez last month. Sela is rarely seen outside the Challenger tour where he has built up a decent record on hardcourt but his forays against the big boys have ended very badly – he is W1 L10 against the current top 50 (W1 L6 on hard) and even if Monaco isn’t a natural hardcourter the Argentine should still have way too much solidity here.

2.50 Units Monaco @ 1.37

Safin-Wawrinka

I backed Safin to beat Dancevic first round and was rewarded when good Marat turned up and with a bit of difficulty edged the in form Canadian in 3 tight sets. Wawrinka meanwhile in a match he was expected to romp eventually beat Korolev 7-5 in the fifth in a messy game where he was broken 8 times and served very poorly with his second serve. Safin is not the player he was and seems as flaky as ever this year but I’m not sure Wawrinka on what is probably not his best surface is the man to beat him.

2 Units Safin @ 1.69

Henman-Tsonga

Will Henman leave me with a bitter taste in my mouth? I’m hoping if he plays like he did against Tursonov that he will have too much for Tsonga who has played hardly anything since post Wimbeldon injury. Here’s hoping for a decent swansong from the Tiger.

1.75 Units Henman @ 2.18

[Wittmann 44]

Two more from the men’s events

Pavel-Ljubcic

Lube got a peach of a first round draw against freefalling Vliegen and easily won out in three. Pavel beat another qualifier Mellfert. Pavel has a solid record against the big serving Croat – he is W2 L3 and has taken a set in all 3 defeats. Lube is having a very poor second half of the year as recent easy defeats to Almagro , Odesnik and Pavel himself (on clay) show. If his serve fails he does not seem to have much of a Plan B. His record here is truly abysmal for a player that has been in the top 20 for such a long time – in 8 previous attempts here he has been beyond round two only once. A similar patten of underachievement exists at the other Slams. Whether Pavel can capitalise is a moot point but I can’t see this being as one sided a game as the odds suggest and backing Pavel should enable some decent tradeing possibilities at a minimum.

0.75 Units Pavel @ 4.5

Malisse-Nalbandian

Malisse has spent a frustrating 6 months sidelined with a wrist injury but seemed well back in the groove against Pless. Nalbandian seems fitter and leaner than in some time but recent losses to Gicquel and Kunitsyn linger in my mind and I’m reluctant to support him as such a jolly here. Malisse has never really conquered his mental issues but he has a very solid record at the Slams – 3 fourth rounds here. He also tends to do well on US hardcourt. This looks close. A repeat of the 5 set Wimbedlon thriller from 2003 would be very nice.

0.75 Units Malisse @ 3.75

[Wittmann 44]

Just one from the ladies although I’m pondering taking Bartoli over Safarova if I get a chance to watch the game I taped last night.

Dementieva - Bammer

Bammer a late starter in the tennis world (and one of the only tour mommys to boot) has made solid progress up the ranks over the last two years but hasn’t really looked like troubling the big guns yet. She has gotten to where she is by beating the players you’d think she would beat and has sprung few surprises. Dementieva’s serve as bad as ever recently but she relies on her massive groundstrokes and great movement to keep her competitive. I’m not sure Bammer has the weapons to trouble her as a W4 L16 record against the top 10 shows. Her record on hardcourt is actually relatively good W4 L5 against these players but all the wins have been struggles. This is Dementeiva’s favourite Slam and in the last seven years has only fallen at this hurdle once – her defeats are to a roll call of the cream of womens tennis current and past – Jankovic (06), Pierce (05), Kuznetsova (04) etc. I don’t think Bammer fits in here. This is max stakes for me. Another B – Bartoli demolished Dementieva at Wimbeldon to scorch what had been a great event for me so I’m hoping lightning will not strike twice here.

5 Units Dementieva @ 1.50

[redroar]

Agree with witt with regards to Henman. One of Ljubicic or Nalbandian is gauranteed to lose so a similar bet on Pavel/Malisse should pay off.

I want to believe Safin can do it but he has burned me so many times in the past I'll give it a miss.

Coincidently what would peoples thoughts on a good tornament for Murray be? Realistically he wont win it and will do well to get past Davydenko and then Blake. Henman is on a freeroll and might just outlast the young scot, anyone give me odds on that?

Good luck to all today.

[Peter Orchard]

Tommy and Timmy.
I agree with Wittmann here. Tommy might not be in his life´s best form but he´ll find enough to get over this hurdle and if Timmy has put his back troubles to one side I don´t see why he can´t beat what essentially is a challenger level opponent with some back problems of his own.

Moya´s form this year suggests he should get past Kunitsyn - but 1,13!!?
Shurely shome mishtake here. Should be 1,60 or better.

The Safin family might have battles on their hands today. Marat takes on Wawrinka, a tricky nut for anyone at any level while little sister takes on local girl Rolle who already has Golovin´s scalp under her belt here. I know nothing of the American girl but they look tough calls both, I think.

Match of the day for me on the ladies side is Bartoli-Safarova where I´ll be leaning towards the French girl and her bizarre but hugely entertaining style while any one from Tipsarevic, Bammer and Malisse buys the fish supper.

[Chief77]

Pretty good yesterday with Lee winning in straight sets Bjorkman losing in 5 and Gasquet a non runner. Was raging I forgot to oppose Pratt as I had meant to after her poor 1st round display. Anyway a couple of outsiders for me today.

Djokovic V Stepanek: Gonna have a speculative punt on Stepanek here @5/1. He beat Djokoviv last year on hard court in Rotterdam(although in fairness Djokovic has improved since then) and he's had a reasonably good season winning 23 from 41 matches. Djokovic looked poor a couple of weeks ago when he got hammered by Moya and i'm hoping Stepanek can spring a surprise today. Gonna have a saver on 3-2 Djokovic @8/1 as well.

Tsonga V Henman: I know i'm gonna regret this and I know i'm a silly billy but i'm going for Henman here @Evens. Tsonga has only had 2 matches since June and lost one of them. Hopefully the new rip roaring confidence laden Tiger can send the Frenchman packing.


Verdict:
Stepanek @5/1
Henman @Evens

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Can anyone tell me James Blake's next game and his price and date of it too please?

After his performance last night he is a definate lay for me. Struggled against the ageing magician Santoro who for the duration of the final set was hampered badly by cramp yet Blake still struggled.

Depending on odds i reckon he could be worth a small interest in laying him.

[rcgills]

He'll be playing Koubek, Kiko, presumably some time tomorrow night. Currently 1.19 to back, 1.2 to lay on Betfair.

[edtkh]

20pts Djokovic-Henin-Ljubicic-Safina-Gulbis (2.78 @ Ladbrokes)

Djokovic, Henin, Ljubicic and Safina do not need much elaboration as they're all playing opponents who are honestly out of their league. Although Stepanek and Pavel may be a little more experienced than Rolle and Makarova, I still can't see them having the pedigree to trouble Djokovic and Ljubicic respectively.

Gulbis, for me, has got to be 1 of the value bets of the day - Berrer is nothing more than a journeyman making a comfortable living on the tour whose abilities are fairly limited. While I'm not saying Gulbis will be a world beater, he's certainly impressed me whenever I've seen him play and he's still pretty much a rookie with his best years ahead of him. Even taking that into consideration, I have to fancy him to see off Berrer here - for the record, Gulbis, despite being just 18, has won two tournaments (both on hardcourt) at the Challenger level. That is far more than Berrer has done this year.


20pts Djokovic-Henin-Ljubicic-Safina-Safarova (3.04 @ Ladbrokes)

Safarova's stamina and endurance is absolutely top-drawer - if there's someone who can run all day, she's as close to it as one can get. Bartoli, for me, is a very over-rated player in the aftermath of her Wimbledon exploits and she is still very much a player outside the top 20 in my book. I certainly think Safarova starting this at evens is cracking value.


20pts Henman-S Williams-Youzhny-Nalbandian-V Williams (3.75 @ Ladbrokes)

The Williams sisters are clear bankers here given their superior pedigree and experience over their opponents.

Youzhny should also have little trouble seeing off a woefully inconsistent Kohlschreiber who virtually never turns up at Grand Slams and is one of those here just to make up the numbers.

Nalbandian has hit a sticky patch lately, but I've always believed he's one of those who comes good when the big tournies come along and considering Malisse hasn't done much this year, it's hard to see how he can derail someone who is as consistent for the last couple of years as any on the tour.

In all honesty, if Henman can beat Tursunov, he has got to be fancied to see off Tsonga. I just can't see Tsonga posing a bigger threat to Tim than Tursunov did and needless to say, motivation shall not be an issue for Henman given what's at stake. 1.83 is pretty massive for someone of Henman's pedigree - provided he's able to reproduce his form against Tursunov.


Cheers & Good Luck!

Starting Bank : 100.00pts
Current Bank : 132.19pts
Profit/Loss : 32.19pts


PS : Someone please sort out the bold function (as usual)...