Tennis 19th - 26th August (ATP & WTA New Haven)

[Wittmann 44]

PILOT PEN TENNIS - Home

Missed the ball on this - the mens first round already started today.

[Wittmann 44]

A few from New Haven - 17.30 start

Russell-Garcia Lopez

Under normal circumstances I’d be all over Russell at 1.98 agaainst Lopez on US hardcourt where he has had some decent results of late. He pulled mid game with a suspected back strain against Tommy Haas 10 days ago however so this has to be approached with some caution. I think however with the US Open so close he would probably be reluctant to risk himself unless he felt he was up to this. He easily beat Lopez on hardcourt in Indian Wells back in March and I think he’ll have too much again here today.

1.25 Units Russell @ 1.98

[Wittmann 44]

1 Final shout 18.30 start

Del-Potro-Tsonga

I like opposing players who have had long lay offs and who have changed surface and Tsngoa fits that bill beautifully right now. He hasn’t played since Wimbeldon which makes the health alarm bills ring for me. That’s over 6 weeks without hitting a tennis ball in anger. Del Potro seemed to get his season back on track with a 3^rd round progress in Cincinatti where he was slightly unlucky to get edged out by Moya. I’m sure this took a lot out of him as he played qualifying so I’m slightly reluctant to back him. Having said that with his big serve he should be able to keep the points short (as will Tsonga with his) and I suspect this one will go to tbs where I would fancy the Argentine’s superior sharpness to tell.

1.50 Units Del Porto @ 1.21

For the crackpot he is Ginepri looks very short at 1.51 but Massu is a bit ring rusty. If this goes to 3 or the Chilean gets the first I’d back him in running.

[engineer]

I'm on John Isner today against Becker at ~1.70. The price may seem a bit short, but I don't see many chances for the German here. Isner already leads 1:0 in h2h, when prevailing very hard in Washington. That guy is now number 199 in the World, Becker is number 49. But, comparing their physical abilities and recent form I reckon the Yankee is favourite here. That guy is 205cm tall and his opponent only 178cm On that surface Isner should have some advantage again. I only hope Isner not to break down if being under pressure. But, considering his growing confidence and big serves I'll put some money on him.
Isner - 1.5 pts.

[Wittmann 44]

I'm on Isner too engineer. Nice looking price as the RP advised Becker and Isner drifted out a bit!

2 from 2 winners yesterday. Del Potro was 1.71 and not 1.21 – slip of the keyboard yesterday. Update later.

There seems to be some confusion about whether the Pen Haven Deco Turf courts play fast or slow. “The Racing Post” seems to be making its selections on the basis that this is a fast surface. A number of players and a number of websites have this down as a medium-slow surface which if true would give the clay courters more of a chance than the odds would imply. A number of big servers have come through unscathed so you’d have to think however that the court is playing fairly fast. I’m reserving judgement right now.

For some reason not all the games are up on Betfair yet

From the men’s event

Isner – Becker

The big serving college player Isner served notice that his recent Futures wins might have some backing behind them when he made the final in Washington recently. En route to the final he beat Henman, Monfils and Haas before eventually falling to Roddick. He bizarrely managed to win the first 5 games with a third set tb in all (having come from behind in 4 of the games). This is a seriously big guy – 6ft 6 with a bomb of a serve to match. I cursed Henman for losing to him initially but having seen him play twice subsequently he is a fairly solid player apart from the monster serve. Becker was one of his victims in Washington where he lost the final set tb 8-6. The RP tips Becker but for the life of me I cannot see why- he is in the mother of all slumps at the moment – he has lost the last 6 on the bounce and his most recent wins have been against Allegro, a crocked Ollie Rochus, doubles man Zimonic and dodgy Russian Kunitysn. In between them are 13 losses. Isner might have a comedown but he played well in losing to Ferrer last week and he’ll have my money here.

1.75 Units Isner @ 1.72

Rochus-Acasuso

Acasuso makes his first start of the late US hardcourt season having lost in the final in Sopot on clay a fortnight ago. He threw his dummy out of the pram there when having lost a set point in the first set through slightly contentious circumstances he proceeded to make very little effort in the next set and went down tamely in the end. Rochus on the comeback trail should have beaten Ferrero when he was a break up 3rd set but he couldn’t keep his nose in front and eventually ended up losing. The Belgian hasn’t any real weapons other than a willingness to chase everything down from one end of the court to the other but Acasuso must be slightly rusty on the surface and his record on hardcourt isn’t too clever to begin with. Ollie to edge it.

1.50 Units Rochus @ 1.79

Robredo-Gicquel

Robredo looks price of the day to me here even at 1.43 – he has admittdly stuttered badly after his clay win in Sopot going out R1 in each of the last two Masters in Round 1. I’d class his opponents (Nieminen and Hrbaty) better players than the French journeyman Gicquel who after a good run earlier in the year has tailed of badly and is now well into negative W – L for the year. He managed to beat clay hating Berlocq last round but his service stats were dire and this should be a fairly gentle start for Robredo to get of the mark.

2.50 Units Robredo @ 1.44 (Ladbrokes)

Lopez-Niemienen

I’m normally very reluctant to take on a 4-0 h to h but that’s what I’m going to do here. Lopez has lost all 4 to the Finn and is 9-1 in sets but I think his chances are slightly undertstated here. He blasted 18 aces past Tipsarevic in the first round and played reasonably well last week before losing a tight one against Monaco. Nieminen lost last week to a bubbly Almagro and starts a deserved favourite but I’d still think Lopez with his big serve will have his chances here.

I’ll be playing this in running.

1 Unit Lopez @ 3.1

Korolev-Spadea

Spadea seems unable to string two consecutive performances together these days and he was brutally bad against Nieminen. Korolve eased through qualifying and while the h to h is 1-0 for the American I think Korolev’s form is steadier.

1 Unit Korolve @ Evens (Skybet)

[Wittmann 44]

1 more from the gents

Wawrinka-Ancic

Going to oppose Ancic here on the basis that he can't be 100% yet after his 6 month lay off. Wawrinka has lost the last two but had shockers of draws against Hewitt and Youznhy and he did push Hewitt (a misfiring Hewitt admittedly) fairly hard in the first round. Ancic laboured in qualifying against the unheralded Russians Kuznetsov and Kunitysn whom he needed 3 to see off. Wawrinka is a cut above.

1 Unit Wawrinka @ 2.42

[Wittmann 44]

Women’s selections – 16.00 hrs

Cibulkova-Loit

Slightly risky play on Cibulkova who is through as a lucky loser after retiring last round. It was a dead rubber at that stage as she was in the main draw already so I’m thinking it is not too serious. Loit not having the best of times of late. A demolition by Bammer in her last match was preceded by an ambarrsement against youngster Jules Georges. Shes excellent on clay but this isn’t her surface and Cibulkova has a good shout here.

1 Unit Cibuilkova @ 2.02

[Wittmann 44]

A few more from the ladies

Govortosova-Bondarenko

This looks a tricky looking opener for Bondarenko who has lost the last three (including a shocker against big underdog Camerin). Govortsova has breezed through qualifying in straight sets and with her aggressive style should put some serious pressure on Bondarenko. Govortsova has made huge strides this year breaking into the top 100 and I’ be very surprised not to see her top 50 by the end of this year. With confidence on her side she looks the value shout here.

1.25 Units Govortosova @ 2.04

Going to also have speculative long shot plays against two strong favorites carrying some baggage.

Santangelo-Dementieva

Neither girl is fully fit here with Santangelo recovering from a toe problem and Dementieva a writs and thigh problem that saw her pretty much immobilised in the last few games of her defeat to Schiavone where she completely lost the plot after winning the first set. Her serve which had seemed to be showing signs of recovery collapsed and with the US Open coming up I’m not sure how willing she will be to go all out if there are any problems. The same applies (to a lesser extent) of course to Santangelo but at 4.2 I can carry that risk. Their clay meeting in April was a close 3 set affair.

0.75 Units Santangelo @ 4.2

Medina Garrigues- MIrza

Mirza pulled from the event in Toronto last week having played an awful lot of singles and doubles tennis in the previous few weeks. Unspecified personal reasons are given as the reason. Like Dementieva Mirzas main focus will probably be on Flushing Meadows where she will be a live contender in the doubles and could go deep into the singles with a nice draw. Median Garrigues has beaten her on indoor hardcourt already this year and the Spaniard should make it difficult again. She also has form here with a SF appearance on her last showing in 2005.

0.75 Units Garrigues @ 3.45
0.25 Units Mirza 2-1 @ 4.5

[Wittmann 44]

Update from yesterday

1.25 Units Russell @ 1.98 +1.16 Units
1.50 Units Del Potro @ 1.71 +1.02 Units

ATP Staked 2.75 Units
ATP Profit +2.18 Units

[Beanie]

Keep it up Wittman...in cracking form recently

[Peter Orchard]

Yes, good stuff as usual, Wittman.
I haven´t had time to look at this Newhaven competition but I see it´s raining right now and with the big one next week prolonged bad weather might prompt some hasty rescheduling.

I like to look at the guys and gals who´ve been involved in this competition in earlier years for some kind of clue about who´s willing to stay until weekend and of course, Davydenko´s name is thereabouts!

[Wittmann 44]

Thanks guys. I've backed Karlovic at 22s myself Peter.

Bad day at the office yesterday although it should have been much better – Korolev had 3 bps at 5-5 final set, squandered all and went on to lose his own serve. Even worse was Lopez who after saving a break in the final set had 3 match points in the tiebreak against Nieminen before blowing them all (2 on serve). I managed to trade back my stake but it should have been much better. Update later.

As Peter says rain delays have caused havoc here so it might be worth opposing some of the big guns if the schedule is looking backed up as they will be having their eyes on Flusing Meadows. A number of players at New Haven are likely to be qualifying as well which is worth taking note of.

A few from today

Acasuso-Rochus

Rochus’s lack of power badly exposed by Acasuso who was in great form blasting down 16 aces and serving extremely well. He faces Hrbaty who he leads the h to h 2-1 including a straight sets win on hardcourt in New Zealand. Hrbaty is scheduled for surgery post the US Open so I’d have to question how much he is willing to push himself here. He played surprisingly well in Montreal beating the slightly out of sorts Robredo and Kohlscreiber but got mauled by Youznhy last week. Hrbaty has had a poor year W12 L23 and you have to go back to November 2006 to get any sort of form prior to Montreal.The Slovak looks opposable here today.

1.50 Units Acasuso @ 1.79

Verdasco-Spadea

Going to once again try and flout the rule of Verdasco (oppose as jolly and back as dog) when he takes on veteran yank Spadea. Spade beat selection Korolev last night but laboured badly and Korolve should have broken him in the penultimate game of the third set. Verdasco has beaten him in 06 (grass) and 05 (hard) and if he brings anything approaching his A game should do so again today although you’ll probably sweat this one if you back him. Spadea has been consistent in his inconsistency this season following a decent showing with a howler in the next game. Verdasco made the QF here in 05 and the 3rd round last year (retired injured( beating some worthwhile opposition on the way).

2.25 Units Verdasco @ 1.48

[Wittmann 44]

From the ladies - no time for any analysis

Lay Schiaovone @ 1.37 vs Loit (0.50 Units Risked)
3.25 Units Bartoli to beat Pascual @ 1.36

[Wittmann 44]

Having a horror show with the ladies and not catching too many breaks with the gents either. Might hold my powder until Flushing Meadows as things could get messy here.

1.75 Units Isner @ 1.72 +1.20 Units
1.50 Units Rochus @ 1.79 -1.50 Units
2.50 Units Robredo @ 1.44 (Ladbrokes) +1.1 Units
1 Unit Lopez @ 3.1 -1 Unit
1 Unit Korolve @ Evens (Skybet) -1 Unit
1 Unit Wawrinka @ 2.42 +1.35 Units

ATP Staked 11.50 Units
ATP Profit +2.33 Units

1 Unit Cibuilkova @ 2.02 -1 Unit
1.25 Units Govortosova @ 2.04 -1.25 Units
0.75 Units Santangelo @ 4.2 -0.75 Units
0.75 Units Garrigues @ 3.45 -0.75 Units
0.25 Units Mirza 2-1 @ 4.5 -0.25 Units

WTA Staked 4.00 Units
WTA Loss – 4.00 Units

[Wittmann 44]

Karlovic-Russell

Have talked myself into backing big Ivo against Mike Russell. Ivo has lost the last two 7-6,7-6 (against Fed and Melzer) despite not conceding a single bp in either game. Russell withdrew from Montreal with a back injury and struggled to beat Garcia Lopez in 3 sets. He is finding his first full ATP year tough going – he is after a decent start to the year going through a fairly rocky patch. Looking at his record he has had serious trouble with the big servers – he has lost against Tursonov, Kendrick, Delic and Monfils so he might find the barrage Karlovic is likely to throw down tough to get back.

1.75 Units Karlovic @ 1.48