Tennis 13th - 20th (ATP Cincinatti, WTA Toronto)

[Wittmann 44]

Karlovic gets beaten by Melzer who beats him bizzarely in two tbs

H to h now 5-0 for the Austrian

[Beanie]

Ah FFS TIM!

All going to plan, slow start, then starts dominating, takes 2nd set, before missing a simple volley on bp, gets worked up about a challenge, and blows it. Never traded out of either bet as prices looked so wrong for the whole match...tim, tim, tim...

[Hippy Dave]

Verdasco should hammer Volandri, I've sold X-Courts, 2pts @ 46.

[Wittmann 44]

Just one more for tonight from the WTA

Vakulenko-Golvin

Speculative lay of Golovin who had foot problems last week and who says she is not 100%.

Vakulenko 0.5 Units @ 4.3

Poor old Henman. Like Beanie said had his chances and was the better player for much of the match. Couldn't make his chances count. Now 5-11 for the year and he'll be out of the top 100 very soon as he has points to defend from September results in Asia 2006 that he looks very unlikely to manage.

[Hippy Dave]

Verdasco beats Volandri 6-2 6-2, X-Courts making up 24 for 44pt profit.

[redroar]

Hope everyone had a decent start yesterday.

My picks for the day are: Bjorkman
Canas
Hewitt

Sorry I've no time for an in depth analysis

[Wittmann 44]

GL Redroar. I'm against you with Bjorkman but the other two look good shouts.

Excellent day yesterday. Only shock loss was Karlovic who really should have won. He made 5 bps to Melzers zero but Melzer held his nerve to win both tie breaks.

Moya and Nalbandian had a particularly entertaining game. Carlos in his best form in years this year. Bandy might be getting back towards something like form with some excellent shots let down by some howlers.

For today:

Ginepri-Bjorkman

Going to chance Ginepri against the veteran Swede today. He was poor in his last outing against Murray but he has an excellent record here and Jonas won’t fancy the heat here. Ginepri is a confidence player and I think at a grounds where he has taken some reasonable scalps he is just about value.

1.25 Units Ginepri @ 1.76

Lopez-Monaco

Lopez came through a potentially tricky qualifying rounds against Miryni and Gabashavlii without dropping a single bp chance and firing 25 aces. Monaco makes his first hardcourt start since March having taken a fortnight off after winning on clay in Austria. The Argentine is having a career best year but mainly on clay and Lopez has beaten him easily in their two previous meetings (1 hard). Lopez’s big serve will be a massive plus in the hot conditions and in the games I saw yesterday the ball seemed to be travelling extremely fast which will suit Lopez here.

2 Units Lopez @ 1.56

Calleri-Kohlsreiber

Two players that seem to have tailed of after good starts to the year. I’d peg this a 50:50 if not make CAlleri a slight favourite under normal circumstances. His form is definitely worse than the Germans but he has a much better hardcourt record and he tends to like the hot US conditions as good showings in Inidan Wells and Miami indicate. First appearance here for Kohlsreiber (2nd for Calleri who went out to Younznhy 1st round in 2003). The Argentine the value here IMO.

1 Unit Calleri @ 2.22

Rochus-Ferrero

Having had a horrible time after scratching from Miami in March with a foot injury (run of 1 win from 13) every tennis fans favourite short arsed Belgian has now won 4 of the last 6 (includeing 2 in qualifying here) to suggest that he might be finding some sort of groove. I saw Ferrero’s last match against Hewitt and while he showed some sublime touches at times he also racked up some terrible ues. He is under some pressure here to defend points as he made the finals last year here but this is a tricky opener against an opponent who will chase down every ball. Prior to the Miami injury Rochus was going well on hardcourt with QFs in Doha and Dubai. He has also only lost once in 8 hardcourt masters first round starts since 2003 (he started getting byes to second round from them on). Their sole meeting on clay in 2006 was a tight 3 setter (2tbs) won eventually by the Spaniard. Rochus hasn’t the weapons to trouble Ferrero of old but Ferrero is looking increasingly like a player going backwards and at the prices I can put a few quid on Olly.

Lay Ferrero @ 1.51 (1 Unit Risked)
Ferrero 2-1 @ 4.2 (0.50 Units Risked)

Canas-Del Potro

An all Argentine meeting here. Del Potro hasn’t really kicked on this year and he has suffered some poor recent defeats. Canas went out first round in Montreal to Mathieu but the latter’s subsequent play in the event makes that look a reasonable loss. Canas should have enough experience to mix it up against his taller compatriot and bring him into the net where he will find it difficult getting down to the low balls. Dancevic beat him twice recently with some nice serve and volley tennis and I think Canas should be able to do the same mixing it from the baseline.

2 Units Canas @ 1.61

I cannot see how Murray will beat Bagy today but the value looks gone for me with Murray friendless among punters and the weight of money driving the Cypriot down from 1.48 to 1.38. I would have bet at the higher price but at 1.38 I can leave alone.

[Wittmann 44]

Two from the matches starting at 4.00 (ladies)

Dulko to beat Danildou 0.75 Units @ 2.62

Razzano to beat Rezai 2.25 Units @ 1.41

[Wittmann 44]

A few more from the later starts

Sugiyma-Dubois

Massive price here IMO. Real price should be closer to 1.15 for the veteran Japanese player against the Canadian wildcard whom she beat 1 & 4 in Sydeny (hard) in IJnauray of this year. Dubois has won some minor ITF titles in the last few weeks but this is a quantum leap against a solid top 50 player like Sugiyama.

3.50 Units Sugiyma @ 1.24

Shuagnessy-Santangelo

Santangelo pulled from the singles event last week in LA with a foot injury and subsequently then strangely went on to play doubles with her regular partner Molik. They got walloped in the final so badly I’d have to suspect all is still not well. Shaugnessy is nothing special but she beat Santangelo in 2006 on hardcourt and the powerful Yank is worth chancing here.

1 Unit Lay Santangelo @ 1.61

[Martens]

hi, i am again against the punters stream :

Murray v Baghdatis

very strange odds : why :because murray said that he still feels pain! and pain is more than expected! whats going on here guys? ok, he said this after the match with ginepri, i watched both murray's games in montreal, i didnt realise any "pain handicap", but the truth is that he was extremely poor against frognini

personally, i dont take seriously this kind of sentenses,i mean if a player is in court that indicates that he can play, ancic also was long long time out of courts,but of totally different reason, it was obvious that he couldnt force himself to maximum, the guy is recovering steadily,

baghdatis was also really poor against roddick, his first serve seems to become his "Achilles hele", i think murray will break baghdatis service a couple of times, of course murray's first serve is another aenigma to be solved,

here i go with low stakes

Murray to win

have a nive evening all!

[Wittmann 44]

Update from yesterday

2 Units Karlovic @ 1.64 -2 Units
0.75 Units Henman @ 2.9 -0.75 Units
1.25 Units Almagro @ 1.92 +1.09 Units
1 Unit Moya @ 2.38 +1.31 Units
2 Units Verdasco 2-0 @ 1.58 +1.10 Units
Lay Ljub (1.00 Units) @ 1.47 -1 Unit
0.50 Units Ljub 2-1 @ 4.2 +1.52 Units
1.75 Units Ferrer @ 1.71 +1.18 Units
3.00 Units Querry @ 1.48 +1.37 Units

ATP Event Staked 13.25 Units
ATP Event Profit +3.82 Units



Srebotnik to beat Bondarenko 2 Units @ 1.52 +0.99 Units
Vakulenko 0.5 Units @ 4.3 – 0.5 Units

WTA Event Staked 2.50 Units
WTA Event Profit +0.49 Units

[Martens]

hello, i dont follow tou witman, i mean i have a compleyely different method, actually a well known method since 18th century,

anyway, today was a match between bagh v idiot, where idiot means murray

all of murray's stuff must go home, ALL OF THEM, trainers physios, all, what murray showed tonight was simply a crap


i never give importance to idiots, so my next bet gonna be in treble stakes:

baghdatis to beat chela

baghdatis was a killer net volley player tonight, and imo chela has ZERO chances, best bet of the month

bagh to beat chela 2-0 good night all

[Wittmann 44]

actually a well known method since 18th century

Please don't say "MArtingale" ?

[redroar]

Right having been scorched by canas yesterday and hewitt giving me a minor coninary I'm ready for more.

There seems to be injury clouds over Stepanek and Gasquet so I'm going to avoid them. My picks for today are:

Ljubicic
Djokivic
Blake
Baghdatis

Good luck all.

[Wittmann 44]

As bad a day yesterday as the previous was good. Didn’t catch a single break.

Rochus – blew a break in the deciding set

Calleri – blew two match points in the deciding set tie break

Sugiyma – nap of the day goes south against player who had never beaten a top 50 player prior to this

Hoping for better things today

From Cincinnati’s early starts

Hewitt-Gasquet

The pint sized Aussie was made work very hard yesterday for his win by Wawrinka but I can’t see him being as wasteful on serve as he was yesterday. Gasqeut has scratched from the doubles yesterday with an apparent reoccurrence of the hand blisters that marred Roland Garros and subsequently Halle (where I had a 9/1 winner against him). If that’s the case I think he will find himself in trouble here against an opponent who will work hard and who has a very good record here.

2 Units Hewitt @ 1.85

Kohlsreiber-Del Potro

Both these players upset my selections yesterday with Kohnlsreiber showing a lot of heart to stave of two bps against Calleri and win a very tight three setter. Del Potro blasted Canas apart in what must rank as a very good performance. I’m still thinking he is slightly underpriced here however and the German rates some small value.

Lay Del POtro @ 1.53 (0.75 Units Risked)

Querry-Youznhy

Querry was very poor yesterday in a 3 set win over Gicquel and had to come from behind to take the third set. Younzhy walloped a disinterested looking Hrbaty (who is scheduled for surgery after the US Open) but its hard to take too much from that. Querry has only managed a single win against top 10 opponents in 10 starts since 2006 but two things make me think he might nick a set from Younzhy – firstly he managed a set in 5 of the 9 games (includeing Nadal and Davydenko) and secondly Youznhy has a very poor record against the big servers (Roddick, Ljube, Lopez, Fish, Safin). Querry is not in those guys class but if he can take a set to a tb I’d give him every chance of nicking one.

Lay Younzhy 2-0 @ 2.10 (1.25 Units Risked)

Melzer-Ancic

Melzer disposed of a big serving Croat in Karlovic yesterday and I think he is some value to beat another in Ancic today. The Croat at the beginnings of his injury comeback pulled of a minor shock in beating Haas yesterday. From what I saw the German seemed to want to get off court as soon as he could given the numbers of ues he made. Melzer beat Ancic on hard in 2002 and squandered a two set lead on clay in a recent Davis Cup tie. Ancis has a patchy record against lefties (9-10 on hardcourt) and with just three games under his belt this has 50:50 written all over it for me.

Lay Ancic @ 1.77 (1.50 Units Risked)