Tennis 5th August - 12th August - Montreal (ATP) & JP Morgan Open (WTA)

[Wittmann 44]

Montreal - 3rd Hardcourt Masters of the Season

http://www.rogerscupmen.com/2/en/draws/MDS.pdf

Los Angeles (JP Morgan)

East West Bank Classic presented by Herbalife

Draw for main part of the JP Morgan tonight

[Wittmann 44]

Some early prices up at Bet365 - 3 matches this afternoon. I can't see that price lasting on H.T.Lee. Going to see can I ferret something slightly biggeer out

5 Aug 18:00 Radek Stepanek v Jonas Bjorkman 1.28 3.50
5 Aug 18:00 Dmitry Tursunov v Nicolas Kiefer 1.44 2.62
5 Aug 19:30 Arnaud Clement v Philip Bester 1.07 7.50

6 Aug 16:00 James Blake v Jurgen Melzer 1.11 6.00
6 Aug 16:00 Lleyton Hewitt v Juan Carlos Ferrero 1.36 3.00 6 Aug 16:00 Philipp Kohlschreiberv Dominik Hrbaty 1.22 4.00
6 Aug 16:00 Jarkko Nieminen v Julien Benneteau 1.44 2.62 6 Aug 16:00 Hyung-Taik Lee v Stanislas Wawrinka 1.83 1.83
6 Aug 16:00 Tommy Haas v Agustin Calleri 1.16 4.50 6 Aug 16:00 Marcos Baghdatis v Carlos Moya 1.50 2.50
6 Aug 16:00 Guillermo Canas v Paul-Henri Mathieu 1.57 2.25

[Wittmann 44]

2 from tonights games

Stepanek-Bjorkman

Duckface looks absolutely nailed on tonight. After a terrible first half of teh year he has been on fire recently with a first win in the US and an unlucky exit to Roddick recently where he actually outpointed Roddick but couldn't take the few chances he had. Bjorkman has bareley played since Wimbeldon (two clay games) and you'd have to questionj how ring fit he is here.

2.25 Units Stepanek @ 1.38

Kiefer-Tursoov

Value play on Kiefer here. Tursonov won i Inidanopolis last week but Kiefer if fit (and there are questions over his kneww) should have enough to make it akward. On song Tursonov can beat all bar the top 10 on hardcourt but he's prone to mistakes when things aren't going his way.

0.75 Units Lay Tursoonv @ 1.65

[Martens]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Some early prices up at Bet365 - 3 matches this afternoon. I can't see that price lasting on H.T.Lee. Going to see can I ferret something slightly biggeer out

5 Aug 18:00 Radek Stepanek v Jonas Bjorkman 1.28 3.50
5 Aug 18:00 Dmitry Tursunov v Nicolas Kiefer 1.44 2.62
5 Aug 19:30 Arnaud Clement v Philip Bester 1.07 7.50

6 Aug 16:00 James Blake v Jurgen Melzer 1.11 6.00
6 Aug 16:00 Lleyton Hewitt v Juan Carlos Ferrero 1.36 3.00 6 Aug 16:00 Philipp Kohlschreiberv Dominik Hrbaty 1.22 4.00
6 Aug 16:00 Jarkko Nieminen v Julien Benneteau 1.44 2.62 6 Aug 16:00 Hyung-Taik Lee v Stanislas Wawrinka 1.83 1.83
6 Aug 16:00 Tommy Haas v Agustin Calleri 1.16 4.50 6 Aug 16:00 Marcos Baghdatis v Carlos Moya 1.50 2.50
6 Aug 16:00 Guillermo Canas v Paul-Henri Mathieu 1.57 2.25

murray v ginepri @1.4

[Martens]

and this is my pick :

murray to beat ginepri 2-0 sets

i expect emphatic re-appearance by the briton, i think he is in good condition now, the opponent looks very poor for hungry andy

good luck

baghdatis to beat moya 2-0 sets

the story here is different, i think moya cant follow a high rythme player like baghdatis is,despite he already beat him on clay very easily, why not to repeat here

bankers both, bankers in my eyes, not for anybody else, and i go on full stakes

have a nice week all!

[Wittmann 44]

Good start to the week with both first day selections winning. Kiefer will be as pleased as I am with his come from a set down win against Tursonov who seemed to throw the towel in somewhat in the final set.

2.25 Units Stepanek @ 1.38 +0.81 Units
0.75 Units Lay Tursoonv @ 1.65 +1.10 Units

Lee-Wawrinka

Lee has been playing well since he got back on US hardcourts – (W7 L3 since mid July) and should be a lot more acclimatised than Wawrinka whose last match was a tank when defending his title on European clay in Umag. The 1.83 on Bet365which I snapped up is gone but he is just about value on Betfair at 1.72.

Lee 1.50 Units @ 1.83


Russell-Almagro

Almagro hates hardcourt – it is as simple as that. His overall record is W12 L17. Since 2003 he has only played in 13 hardcourt events and been beyond the first round in 4 – those wins were against players who hate the surface almost as much as him (Martin,Wawrinka,Pedrosa,). Russell a college star in the US had a tough time in Europe on the grass and clay circuit but back on familiar soil he is showing signs of recovery. 11 of his 13 hardcourt Challenge titles have been on hardcourt and all in North America or Canada. Will have too much interest for Almagro and is warmed up through the two qualifiers he played.

Russell 2.25 Units @ 1.71

Hewitt-Ferrero

Hewitt’s lack of play since Wimbeldon is a concern but the grapevine has it he has been training extensively with his new (and Fed’s ex) coach the Aussie Tony Roche. He leads the h to h 5-3 against Ferrero (4-1 on all hard) although the last match was in 2004 when Ferrero was a much better player than he is now. Hewitt has won in the US already this year and should have enough of the bulldog spirit to see off a fading Ferrero.

1.75 Units Hewitt @ 1.44

Polansky-Foggini

Polansky is a Canadian player who made the junior US Open finals in 2006 and has won a few minor events this year already. He made it here asa wildcard but he might be able to make things difficult for Foggini who isn’t known as a hardcourter (W8 L10). Polansky has beaten a few useful types on hardcourt (at Fogginis level useful anyway) so worth a small interest.

0.75 Units Polansky @ 2.60

Grosjean-Youznhy

Grosjean leads the h to h 4-0 here without the Russian getting a single set. The oldest of those is 2002 so not of as much weight as you’d think but I still view the Frenchman as being overpriced here. He is warmed up having ease dthrough two qualifying matchs and he has a much better record her ethan Youznhy who has been very poor in this event (when played in both Montreal and Toronto). I’m also not convinced the Russian has put his injury woes behind him. If he can lose to Darcis,Koubek and Peya on clay in recent times the stylish Grosjean must have a better chances than the odds imply here.

1 Unit Grosjean @ 2.56

[Peter Orchard]

Wawrinka played brilliantly at Stuttgart going down in the final to some Nadal fella.
However, I saw all his matches that week and would suggest he´s hungry and looking for some success here.
Don´t see how journeyman Lee can be so short.

[Peter Orchard]

Hmm. Wittman
Wawrinka tanked in Poland to the event´s most successful player and one who´s had some brilliant form this year: Carlos Moya.

Wish you luck with HT Lee though I´ll be looking for a Swiss roll here.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Wow...Good to see you Peter. Hope all has been well with you and good luck with your bets

[Peter Orchard]

We´re hoping for the best, Kiko.

Doing some outrights and doing some trading.

But hoping for the best is all I can say.

[redroar]

Always dangerous betting favourites in masters tournies. There are no easy matches at this level. Having said that had a nice win on Hewitt. Might have a small bet on Dancevic. He's form is pretty good and he cant up his game at home, well!!

[Wittmann 44]

Always dangerous betting favourites in masters tournies.

I would think its probably the best time Redroar. Outside the slams the Masters have the most money and the most ranking points so you know that the game should be played to trhe utmost by the top players. Having said that I bet around 60:40 dogs.

[Wittmann 44]

From Montreal

Benneteau-Nieminen

Berdych who had barely played since Wimbeldon crashed out today as did Bjorkman (less surprisingly) last night and I think Nieminen another rusty player could have problems tomorrow. The Finn was down to play both Stuttgart and Sopot and given clay is his best surface his withdrawls must be down to some fairly serious injury. His last outing was a routine win in the Davis Cup on 20^th July against a Latvian cannon fodder. Benneteau is not having a good year but he is warmed up and his first serve seems in rude health as a good display with 14 aces against Lee showed last week. Benneteau made the 4^th round in Inidan Wells back in March and while the h to h (1 indoor hard) is for Nieminen that was back when the Finn was warmed up and injury free and that went to 3. The erratic Frenchman worth a punt here.

1 Unit Benneteau @ 2.68

Blake – Melzer

Melzer out since Halle (June) with a recurrence of his long running wrist injury couldn’t have got much tougher an opener than this. Melzer has an abysmal record in Masters events and Blake’s recent form has been solid if unspectacular. Fully fit and match ready Melzer would have his work cut out for him. In less than ideal conditions for him here I can only see 1 winner.

2.50 Units Blake @ 1.23

Karlovic-Miryni

Backed big Ivo twice last week and he duly obliged twice . He faces another big server here in Miryni but the Beast of Belarus is having a terrible 2007 on the singles front (W8 L18) and is coming straight from European clay. Ivo has warmed up with a SF in Washington where Roddick just about edged him out. His serving as been absolutely deadly as nearly 100 aces in his 4 games in Washington show. Miryni has won only 4 of the last 14 hardcourt Masters starts he has been in and he was playing a lot better then. I’d expect his focus will be on the doubles where himself and Bjorkman will be looking to add to their two titles here.

2.25 Units Karlovic @ 1.44


Chela-Verdasco

The prices in this look reversed to me. The solid and reliable Chela against the more talented but ever flaky Verdasco. Chela edged him in Stuttgart recently to go ahead in the h to h 3-2 and the Argentine is having a much better year than the Spaniard. Chela will grind away and force errors from Verdasco. Verdasco won a Challenge (hardcourt) in Spain on Sunday and will hardly have had much time to acclimatise here not even counting probable jetlag. Chela is coming straight from clay which is a worry but Chela made the two Masters QF in the US already this year and I think he will be too consistent for Verdasco here.

1.50 Units Lay Verasco @ 1.90


There will be considerable interest in Murray's comeback but I couldn't recommend backing him at best odds on Betfair at around 1.59. He has landed a good draw in Ginepri who is in one of his periodic slumps from hell. Ginepri is now W6 L14 for the year and his recent "effort" against Berrer was a shambles after he won the first set. He has apparently got a motivational coach in but the guys head does not seem to be in the right place. Having said all that Murray is tennis's answer to Darren Anderton and his comeback has been delayed so often now that you'd have to worry about the injury's severity. He has been out for nearly 3 months and both previous games (which Murray won) have gone to 3 sets although Ginepri actually outscored Murray in Cincinatti last year. GL if you're on Murray but I just can't trust him right now.

Bet with a match complete book if you are backing Murray so if he breaks down you'll get your stake back.

[Martens]

why to break down mate? he was going to play in wimbledon but only not to risk any further injury he gave up, july is not a month for tennis, federer is out, nadal one tournament, july is preparation month mostly coz two grand slams in previous 30 days, i dont take seriously his absence of courts during july, besides, murray said that he feels very good and fresh to play, he just added that his best tennis is expected to come match by match, i agree that ginepri is not a player to cause serious troubles for the scot, he is not at his best this year

murray to win 2-0 @2.7

good luck to all!

[Martens]

Niemeyer v Ancic

this is totally different story from murray's one.

ancic is affected by a sexually transmitted virus, which cause a very serious desease, i think the croatian is out of fitness, definitely the value is on canadian here @2.2, sounds excelent price, most probable scenario is ancic to withdraw once again, because in NO WAY , he can press his self too much coz of this awful desease, i think time of full recovery is more than a year if we speak about sports men, should be short for a normall person, but not for a world class tennis player and heavily trainings and matches, i think that if ancic finally play tonight, he cant show more than 30% of his physical abilities, i dont know if that is enough to beat the canadian

for me Niemeyer to win @2.20,

for me no intersest as i am heavily on murray, good luck to all!