Tennis 30th July - 5th August(ATP Legg Mason & Sopot, WTA Acura and Stockholm)

[Kiko]

Davy retires on serve

Im reading that he seems to have a reputation for this. If so something should be done about it sooner rather than later.

[Wittmann 44]

Going with a few odds against shouts in Washington tonight

Monfils-Berrer

Monfils monster serve is a double edged sword in my opinion. Like Karlovic when it is firing he is very hard to stop. When it tends to go wrong he has little to fall back on. He is one of the least tactically sound players there is at the moment. When he needs to slow it down he speeds it up and he seems unable to switch styles between players. Both himself and Berrer had fairly straightforward wins last night and while I’d make Monfils a worthy favourite he is a player I like opposing when he is too strong a favourite .

0.75 Units Berrer @ 2.72

Haase-Safin

Haase lived on his nerves last night and dug deep to save 5 mps against Llodra and bring home my second winner on him thi9s week. He faces the always entertaining and always mentally suspect Safin. Despite changing coaches about 2 months ago in time for the hardcourt season and despite making all sorts of positive noises his form recently has been as patchy as ever. He was sluggish against the limited but game Henrych and a confident Haase should be able to push him very hard.

0.75 Units Haase @ 3.40

Isner-Odesnik

Isner followed up his beating of Henman with an even better win over Becker. In a powerful display of serving he shot 30 aces (Becker managed 16 which is not too shabby) and again came from behind. He served over 140mph a number of times and will surely face Odesnik full of confidence. Fatigue will be a concern but I fancy him to have enough left in the tank here. Odesnik having come through qualifiers himself is unlikely to be in too much better shape.

1.75 Units Isner @ 1.94

Karlovic-Spadea

Big Ivo in great form last hitting the usual barrage of aces when beating Korolve. Spadea reversed last months defeat to Moodie (another big server) but Karlovic is the Everest of big servers and its very rare to get him at as nice a price as this against a very average player like Spadea. Spadea has had some good moments recently but I’m going to chance Ivo to keep his numbers up and wear down the veteran.

2 Units KArlovic @ 1.76

Capdeville-Johansson

Speculative punt on the Chilean here. Johansson came back from a first set drubbing to beat Clement but the Frenchman served abysmally and was rumoured to be carrying an injury which would support the low serve stats. Capdeville held his never against another big server Delic and he has beaten Guccione and Karlovic also 3 players like Johannson with big serves but poor mobility.

1 Unit Capdeville @ 2.60

[Wittmann 44]

Last few for today

Bartoli-Dementieva

My lowest hour this year was when I went in heavily on Dementieva against Bartoli at Wimbeldon. A lot of money burned at 1.40. Not nice. Bartoli looked to have some of her groove back last night serving 9 aces and overcoming a potentially tricky opponent. Dementieva easily beat Kerber who I thought might trouble her but she still dropped serve twice and gave up the usual litany of dfs and bp chances. Bartoli should win her service games with more ease and the Dementieva serve will always be vulnerable.

2 Units Bartoli @ 1.82

Safina-Mirza

Miraz on an amazing run of late – with a singles SF and final in her last two events. She also won the Stanford doubles with Peer and is in the QF doubles here. If my calculations are correct she has played 17 matches since 16th July or nearly a match a day. That’s a lot of court time and this is a tough and powerful opponent who will keep on pressing. Safina to edge this against a weary Mirza.

2 Units Safina @ 1.80

[rcgills]

With you on Berrer and Haase, Wittmann, going against you though with Mirza. As you say, she's on fire at the moment, and after missing around 2 months of the season through injury, she seems to be looking to make up for lost time now. I'm happy to take a chance on her continuing her run at 2.3.

[Wittmann 44]

Update from yesterday – profit of 11 Units on the day

2 Units Loit @ 1.49 +0.93 Units
2 Units Dusehvina @ 1.38 +0.72 Units
1 Unit Srebotnik @ 2.24 +1.18 units
Sugiyama 0.75 Units @ 3.8 +2.00 Units
Bammer 2-1 @ 4.20 0.25 Units -0.25 Units
Lay Dementieva @ 1.25 (0.75 Units Risked) -0.75 Units
Dementiva 2-1 @ 5.1 0.25 Units -0.25 Units

WTA Event Staked 19.75 Units
WTA Event Profit +0.80 Units

Simon 2 Units @ 1.61 +1.16 Units
2.50 Units Mayer @ 1.48 +1.14 Units
1.50 Unis Acasuso @ 1.73 +1.04 Units
Stepanek 2-0 vs Goldstein 1.5 Units @ 1.77 -1.5 Units
Isner to beat Becker 1 Unit @ 2.74 +1.65 Units
Russell to beat Whitehouse 1.75 Units @ 1.54 +0.90 Units
Johansson to beat Clement 2.5 Units @ 2.74 +4.13 Units

ATP Event Staked 36.75 Units
ATP Event Profit +6.28 Units

[Martens]

my best bet of the day is Mayer to beat Acasuso

my second best is Simon to beat Andreev, and thats not because i beleive that andreev should fix the defeat, in the contrary, i strongly beleive that simon is overall a much decent player than the russian,andreev doing his best to prove that he is a real joke...

have a nice day all!

[Wittmann 44]

2 from Stockholm

Loit-Georges

Both players came from behind yesterday to win 3 setters. Loit saved a number of match points when beating Pascual while Georges overcame a first set white wash. Loit has a massive edge in experience herer over the young German. She has been having a poor season (she is only 1-6 from QF this season) and I think her wrist problems from late 2006 have carried over. Having said that I still think she’ll have too much experience here – she is a former SF here from 2005.

Loit 2 Units @ 1.46

Wozniaki-Radawanska

Wozniaki dug deep yesterday when Vesnina threatened a comeback and in the end ran out a comfortable winner. She faces Radawanska looking to follow up on her good form of the summer (Biella winner, QF Palermo). On clay I’d be all over Radawanska at 1.40 but on hardcourt I think this will be a lot closer – Wozniaki has beaten some decent players on this surface (Morigami, Gadjsova) and should make a decent game of this.

0.75 Units Wozniaki @ 3.50
0.25 Units Radawaka 2-1 @ 4.5

1 from Sopot

Montanes-Vassallo

Vassalo will surely be under a cloud this morning with news that his game against Davydenko is to be investigated for possible match fixing. Letting that aside I wouldn’t give him much of a chance here – he has been in 45 career QFs (Almost all clay) but only 3 at ATP Level and he has lost all 3. Montanes comfortably beat him on clay in their sole ATP meeting. MOntanes was having a decent first half to the season (finalist in Morocco, sf in Houston) but has run into some tough draws. If he wins this he would have a decent shout against either Mayer or Acasuso and will surely be up for this.

2.25 Units Montanes @ 2.25

My outright on Mayer 25/1 e/w is still alive and kicking. I managed to have a few quid on Acasuso at 26/1 on Betfair as well so I’m garunteed a SF for one of my shouts but Mayer would be a nice little winner if he manages to make the final.

[Wittmann 44]

I looked at Simon as well. He has been very good for me betswise recently.

I recorded his game against Pashanski and watched it last night. His rallying was as solid as ever but his serve was very patchy. If he serves like that today Andreev will murder his second sevre.

GL

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

2.25 Units Montanes @ 2.25

Where have you managed to get that price from, Wittmann? Montanes was a clear favourite on Betfair this morning.

[Wittmann 44]

Sorry that should have read 1.44 of course (Betfair as usual). Not trying to pull a fast one .

Good stuff with Simon there Martens

1 final bet from tonight’s Legg Mason
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Karlovic-Capdeville

Capdeville stood up well to two big servers already in Johansson and Delic but he is now meeting the mothership – Big Ivo is in devestateing form and even if this goes to tbs which is a strong possibility given how well Capdeville has been returning you’d have to fancy Ivo to have the upper hand. He’s blasted Spadea and Korolve without giving up a single bp and in this sort of form hard to see Capdeville troubling him. If himself and Isner meet you'll see the most amazing display of serving ever!

2 Units Karlovic @ 1.44

[rcgills]

The H2H for Schnyder v Petrova looks pretty encouraging for Schnyder. They've met 4 times on outdoor hard courts, and Schnyder has won all 4 of them, all by 2 sets to 1. Gone for the straight win @ 2.44, and also a little bit on the 2-1 set betting @ 5.1.

[Martens]

Simon ole ole

very easy win of the french guy against crappy andreev, the fact is that i dont follow any betting method in tennis...so all my brilliant ideas are gone for ever

simon was very good, while andreev proved to be very poor, the russian at 25 years old, he plays with forehand, and his backhand is verey very weak, also he serves like a mug, i dont understand people picked the russian, he is simply a big crap


it is quite comfortable to talk after results, but here i feel very nice to speak, while i warned all that andreev it is crap, and nothing more than crap

good night people!

[rcgills]

Very strange game in the second SF at Sopot. Robredo has just taken the first set 6-3 v Simon, but there was only one hold of serve in the entire set. Simon had 4 BPs and took 3 of them, while Robredo had 7 and took 5 of them

[Wittmann 44]

Update from last few days

0.75 Units Berrer @ 2.72 -0.75 Units
0.75 Units Haase @ 3.40 -0.75 Units
1.75 Units Isner @ 1.94 +1.56 Units
2 Units KArlovic @ 1.76 +1.44 Units
1 Unit Capdeville @ 2.60 +1.52 Units
2.25 Units Montanes @ 1.44 +0.94 Units
2.00 Units Karlovic @ 1.44 +0.84 Units

ATP Event Staked 50.75 Units
ATP Event Profit +10.72 Units


0.75 Units Wozniaki @ 3.50 -0.75 Units
0.25 Units Radawaka 2-1 @ 4.5 -0.25 Units

Loits match was voided with a first set retirement from here.

WTA Event Staked 25.50 Units
WTA Event Loss -3.37 Units


Can't see much wrong with tonights prices. I think Isenr will have to run out of steam sooner rather than later but I'm not sure Monfils has the consistency to beat him.


I think Demetieva is marginal value to beat Schynder but with her serve I can't bring myself to back her with any confidence.


Bar some major price differences last of the week from me. Nice profit of 7.36 Units (nearly 10% yield) this week to make it 3 profitable weeks from the last 4.