ATP 23rd -29th July - Clay Umag & Kitzbuhel, Hardcourt Indianoplolis

[Wittmann 44]

Three Events this week

Clay in Austria @ Kitzbuhel

Austrian Open 2007 - Tournament

Clay in Croatia @ Umag

Croatia Open Umag

US Hardcourt @ Indianapolis

The Indy Championships

Kitzbuhel is worth twice as much as Umag so I'd suspect as this week that it will be run much truer than the smaller event in Croatia. The presence of the likes of Davydenko (why the hell not in Austria where he is seeking citizenship????), Volandri and Mantilla who all had iffy games in Holland. Expect a few surprises there. Otherwise not a bad field.

Good field in Austria and likewise in Indianapolis.

Not sure how heavily I will be involved this week. This last week was a killer - huge amount of research and finished down - not much but for the hours put in a real killer.

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Starts early in Austria for the men. Just the two for me today.

Patience-Hajek

Patience having a solid year on the Challenge circuit and took Djokovoc to 5 sets in the 3rd round at Roland Garros. Hajek’s career has been marred by a series of recurring injuries as shown by nine retirements/walkovers this year alone (singles and doubles). The sole meeting late in 2006 was a tight 3 setter on clay won by Patience when Hajek was in better form and fitness. Most recent outing for Hajek was a hiding from Hartfield in Gstaad and hard to see it being much different here today.

2 Units Patience @ 1.54

Guccione-Rochus

Rochus came through qualifying without dropping a set but it has been a thin year for the Belgian with only one voyage beyond the first round in an ATP event (from 8 starts). He has been suffering from various ills during the year as well. He faces big serving (if limited) Aussie Guccione who while not playing particularly well on clay this year actually has a decent record on the surface – he has won 3 of his 5 challenge titles here. Rochus has a poor record versus lefties serving to his backhand (lost the last 8, 7 on clay). He’s also cursed by a weak serve. I can only presume the big quote on Guccione is due to him coming of the US hardcourts and perhaps having acclimitisation issues. I’m willing to chance him at odds against.

Guccione 1.50 Units @ 2.22

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2 short odds lays from Croatia

Lay Cilic vs Montcout @ 1.28 (0.50 Units Risked)

Cilic has home advantage here but looked to be carrying an injury when he allowed Wawrinka to blitz him for 10 game sin a row in Stuttgart. Montcourt not playing hugely well right now but has had some decent results earlier in the year.

Lay Davydenko vs Simon @ 1.36 (0.75 Units Risked)

Davydenko – first round match – no points to defend – must defend a title next week. A first round exit in Holland not as much a shock as the odds would suggest and could be another here.

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Looks like being another of those weeks already.

In Austria Patience home and hosed more or less but Guccione fails to convert any of 6 bps on Rochus first service game and then gets broken straight away himself, serving out with a double fault .

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One from Inidanoplois

Becker vs Dancevic

Dancevic is one of those big servers with not much else that America (& Canada to be precise) seems to produce an abundance from college tennis. When put outside the comfort zone of his serve he has very little to offer. He pulled from Los Angeles last week with a knee problem and is having a very bad year by his not very good with standards to begin with (W18 L20). Becker is not having a great year either but hardcourt is his best surface (he is the 2004 amateur college champion which he won on a scholarship) and he has won all 5 challenge titles in North America. His finest hour was putting Agassi to the Sword at the US open last year but he also has wins over Safin, Grosejean and Chela. He has wins over similar big and limited servers like Guccione, Delic and Querry on US hardcourt.

1.75 Units Becker @ 1.85

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I’ve had the usual start to the week as I’ve had recently – nice profit in the women’s and a loss in the men’s. Good win for Simon but Montcourt couldn’t close out against Cilic. Guccione was a mass of aces and double faults.

Some games that have “dodgy” written all over them today. Check out the betting on Navarro-Pastor’s game in Austria !!

2 Units Patience @ 1.54 +1.03 Units
Guccione 1.50 Units @ 2.22 -1.50 Units
Lay Cilic vs Montcout @ 1.28 (0.50 Units Risked) -0.50 Units
Lay Davydenko vs Simon @ 1.36 (0.75 Units Risked) +1.98 Units
1.75 Units Becker @ 1.85 -1.75 Units

ATP Event Staked 6.50 Units
ATP Event Loss -0.74 Units

WTA Event Staked 3.25 Units
WTA Event Profit +1.53 Units

Austria

Lopez-Seppi

2 players coming of fine runs of form meet – Seppi made a Gsatad while Lopez pulled of a number of shocks to make the SF in Stuttgart. Lopez needs the win here. He dropped 23 places by virtue of his failing to defend his previous year’s result in Gstad (although he will come back up slightly when the Stuttgart result is added). Lopez also has a very solid record here with 2QF and a SF appearance here in his last 3 shows between 2003 and 2005. H to H is 1 apiece on clay but Lopez’s record here swings it for me.

1.50 Units Lopez @ 1.73

Recouderec-Gulbis

Gulbis made the jump from Challenger to ATP earlier this season but has had a pretty torrid time (the win over Henman a sole highpoint). I don’t think clay is necessarily his best surface as he seems to have had his best results on indoor hardcourt. The young Frenchman Recouderec has had some decent Challenge results lately, beat Querry, Sluiter and Guzman at Roland Garros and took a set of Djokovic. Worth a shout.

0.75 Units Recouderec @ 3.05

Marach-Peya

Local boy Peya gets a wildcard here but his lack of interest in clay shown by his participation in the US hardcourt season’s start last week in Los Angeles. He comes of a 7 game losing streak and definitely likes the faster surfaces. He has never beaten a player then in the top 100 on clay in over 90 starts. Marach won a big Challenger in Rimini last week and has made the SF in another two large Challengers this year. He is ranked 122 overall but is 53 on clay. Peya has never done anything at home (on clay at least) and the in form Marach should have too much for him today

2 Units Marach @ 1.42

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Umag-Croatia
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Troicki-Rusevski

Troiciki through here as a qualifier while Rusesvski makes it as a lucky loser. Rusesvski looks like he is here to make up numbers. He has played a lot of very low level Challenge tennis but at 24 this is his first senior event – he has beaten no one of any note as far as I can see. Troicki will get some support from the Serbian contingent here and has some decent results behind him in mid tier challengers – wins against Marach, Martin, Haase this year on clay and a few decent hardcourt wins. The younger man is much more experienced here and will surely fancy his chances of making his 2^nd second round appearance in a senior event.

1.75 Units Troicki @ 1.56

Wawrinka-Moya

Wawrinka played a gruelling event in ffice:smarttags" />Stuttgart reaching the final after a few epics where he put up a great show against Nadal before being outfired. I am not sure he will give 100% here and he faces the most successful player ever at this event in Moya who has won this 4 times and made the SF another 5. A retirement here would not surprise me in the slightest.

2.50 Units Moya @ 1.65

Mantilla-Haase

Mantilla drifted from 1.40 to 3.20 when playing Haase last week in Holland before exiting very tamely. Seems like Felix was known not to be trying. The odds have held up here today however and I feel he is a bit of value to reverse that result. IN his favour is the fact that Haase played a lot more tennis than he is used to last wek – he made the singles SF and the doubles final. Mantilla also has a great record here – winner and former finalist.

1 Unit Mantilla @ 2.22

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Indianopolis
2 from the earlier starts. Waiting for better prices on some of the later starts

Russell-Tursonov

Russell has an excellent record in the US with 13 Challenge titles in North America and Mexico to his name. He looks like making a breakthrough on the main tour as well with a 4th round appearance at Indian Wells and before that a battling 5 set loss to Hewitt in Oz. He beat Tursov twice back in 2001/2000 when the Russian was still on the Challenge tour. Tursonov was very poor against Spadea hitting a host of unforced errors and serving badly.

0.75 Units Russel @ 3.15
0.25 Units Tursonov 2-1 @ 4.2 (Avg)

Spadea-Fish

Fish is on a wretched run at the moment – a defeat of Querry last week in LA (in a slump of his own) his sole win in 10. Spadea leads the h to h 4-1 (Won all 4 on US hardcourt) and with successive QF appearances in Newport and LA recently looks to be finding some form.

1.75 Units Spadea @ 1.71

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Two final ones from Indianapolis tonoght


Young - Lee

Donald Young the great white hope of US tennis won over some sceptics with a great win at juinor Wimbeldon. he followed up by not dropping set once when winning the big hardcourt Challenger in Aptos. With a night crowd behind him he takes on H.T.Lee. Lee made the SF in Los Angeles but he beat a poor Kim, a Moodie who retired and a disinterested Safin. He has a very poor record here in Indianapolis (W 1 L 5) and I'd expect Young to make this difficult at a minimum.

0.75 Units Young @ 3.20
0.25 Units Lee 2-1 @ 4.30 (Avg)

Kiefer-Karlovic

Kiefer faces the serving machine. Kiefer is possibly carrying an injury but I don't think mit can be that serious if heturns up here. He has a great record here and leads Ivo 2-1 (including a straight sets win here). Small stakes.

0.75 Units Kiefer @ 2.36

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Another men’s shocker – amongst the horror lost 3 matches where my selection won the first set – that happens about 16% of the time on clay to put that in perspective. Of the 4 games I backed today where my selection won the first set I lost 3. Being pissed off doesn’t even begin to go near today. Good results for the ladies marginally lessen the pain.

Lopez pegged back from a set up. Serving with a mini-break in the third set tie break at 3-2 he loses the next 5 points – 1.50 Units


Spadea loses the game from a set up to lose next two 5-7,5-7 despite having bps in both sets -1.75 Units

Mantilla loses the game from a set up despite scoring 3 more points than Haase -1 Unit

Didn’t hedge a single one of those bets

To add insult to everything else Peya hits more aces against Marach then he has hit in any 3 set ATP game since I began keeping ATP records (2003) -2 Units

The kind of day that makes you wonder why you bother betting.

1.50 Units Lopez @ 1.73 -1.50 Units
2 Units Marach @ 1.42 -2 Units
1.75 Units Troicki @ 1.56 +0.93 Units
2.50 Units Moya @ 1.65 +1.59 Units
1 Unit Mantilla @ 2.22 -1 Unit
0.75 Units Russel @ 3.15 -0.75 Units
0.25 Units Tursonov 2-1 @ 4.2 (Avg) -0.25 Units
1.75 Units Spadea @ 1.71 -1.75 Units
0.75 Units Young @ 3.20 -0.75 Units
0.25 Units Lee 2-1 @ 4.30 (Avg) -0.25 Units

ATP Event Staked 19.00 Units
ATP Event Loss -6.47 Units

WTA Event Staked 6.00 Units
WTA Event Profit +3.55 Units

A few for today. No time for any analysis (not doing me much good this week anyway )

Austria

Eschauer to beat Fogini 1.75 Units @ 1.61
Lay Almagro vs Navarr-Pastor 0.75 Units Risked @ 1.20
Almagro 2-1 0.25 Units @ 4.6
Lay Ferrero vs Seppi 1 Unit Risked @ 1.50
Verdasco to beat Horna 2 Units @ 1.57

Croatia

Simon to beat Cilic 2 Units @ 1.64
Lay Ferrer vs Acasuso @ 1.36 (0.75 Units Risked)
Ferrer 2-1 vs Acasuso @ 4.4

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Looking a lot better today. Good wins for Seppi and Recouderec already and Verdasco looks well in control.
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2 from the early ffice:smarttags" />US starts

Goldstein-Lee

Goldstein leads the h to h 3-1 (all hardcourt and is on a good run of form). Lee has cost me a lot recently but at biggish odds against Goldstein looks the value.

1 Unit Goldstein @ 2.50

Dancevic-Del Potro

Don’t like Dancevic much as a player – think he is very limited but Del Potro hasa poor record against big servers such as Guccione, Fish, Delic, Johansson (although he beat Delic here already) and while he should win he is no value at 1.42.

Lay Del Potro @ 1.42 (0.75 Units Risked)
Del Potro 2-1 @ 4.30 (avg)

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Well after a shocker yesterday that was one of my best ATP days in a while. Big priced winners at well over 3/1 with Recouderec, Seppi and Dancevic. Back in profit overall

0.75 Units Recouderec @ 3.05 +1.46 Units
Eschauer to beat Fogini 1.75 Units @ 1.61 -1.75 Units
Lay Almagro vs Navarr-Pastor 0.75 Units Risked @ 1.20 -0.75 Units
Almagro 2-1 0.25 Units @ 4.6 -0.25 Units
Lay Ferrero vs Seppi 1 Unit Risked @ 1.50 +1.90 Units
Verdasco to beat Horna 2 Units @ 1.57 +1.08 Units
Simon to beat Cilic 2 Units @ 1.64 +1.22 UNits
1 Unit Goldstein @ 2.50 -1 Unit *****
Lay Del Potro @ 1.42 (0.75 Units Risked) +1.63 Units
Del Potro 2-1 @ 4.30 (avg) -0.25 Units



Memo to self - stop opposing Lee (hes cost me 10 units in the last 2 weeks)



ATP Event Staked 27.00 Units
ATP Event Loss -2.18 Units

WTA Event Staked 9.75 Units
WTA Event Profit +2.83 Units

Away tomorrow so probably no selections

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2 from Austria

1.75 UNits Verdasco @ 1.84

1.75 Units Starace @ 1.83

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Good stuff today with Starace and Verdasco winning and my stakes returned with Acasuso nicking a set of Ferrer. HGas two ladies winners that I forgot to post as well so 2 excellent days. In profit with both the ATP and WTA now. Hope to keep the run going over the next few days. Will update later

One for tonight from Indianapolis


Tursonov-Gabashvalli

Tursonov overcame a potentially tricky match against Russell with a solid victory in 3 & 5. I can't see the erratic Gabashvalli stopping him tonight. The win price is a stingy 1.23 but the straight sets price of 1.75 approximnates to a win price of around 1.32 which looks much more generous. Gabasvalli prone to ues and I cannot see him coping with Tursonovs power. Gabashvalli is having a very poor few months and prior to a laboured 3 set win over Ram had only won 2 from 10. Its a match with two Russians so I'm reducing stakes slightly here.

1.50 Units Tursonov 2-0 @ 1.75

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A further one from Indianapolis

Berrer-Nishori

Don't often go as low as this but Berrer should have toomuch experience for Japanese Nishikori who is ranked 300 odd places below him. The Japanese beat Falla and Sa to make the second round but Berrer is posting solid service stats and it would be a major shock to see him lose here. Price of 1.30 would be fair here so I'm jumping on the 1.39

2.25 Units Berrer @ 1.39