ATP 23rd -29th July - Clay Umag & Kitzbuhel, Hardcourt Indianoplolis

[rcgills]

Good to see you back to form, Wittmann

[Wittmann 44]

Just when I get ahead again after two very good days. Tursonov wins but drops a set in manageing a whole 5 points in the second set then rallies to win 6-2 the next.

Berrer loses to a player ranked 300 places above him.

If I stuck to odds against shouts I’d be sorted the last two – three weeks. Better in the women’s with Mirza winning at nearly 3.40 to 1 to keep a solid profit ticking over there. Hopefully Shchnder can finish it off

Lay Ferrer vs Acasuso @ 1.36 (0.75 Units Risked) -0.75 Units
Ferrer 2-1 vs Acasuso @ 4.4 +0.81 Units
1.75 Units Verdasco @ 1.84 +1.40 Units
1.75 Units Starace @ 1.83 +1.38 Units
1.50 Units Tursonov 2-0 @ 1.75 -1.50 Units
2.25 Units Berrer @ 1.39 -2.25 Units


ATP Event Staked 35.25 Units
ATP Event Loss -3.10 Units

WTA Event Staked 10.75 Units
WTA Event Profit +4.28 Units

[Wayne]

Wittman - Can you answer me a question mate? I know you've got pretty deep records on tennis and was wondering if this is the normal run of things with the mens results being all over the place (apart from the majors)? Seen some major shocks over recent weeks and am wondering about whether just laying a lot of the very short-priced favourites would be a profitable approach?

Also why do the women's results seem more reliable?

Bloody weird this sport!

[Wittmann 44]

There have been some massive shocks in the last month alright. Just yesterday Djokovic gets knocked out at odds of under 1/6. I’d hazard a few ideas:fficeffice" />

1. There are a lot of non triers at the smaller events. The bigger players don’t care about the points unless they are defending high places from last year and are there for the holidays and some under the counter appearance money. I’ve opposed Davydenko at his two most recent clay events where he exited first round – he has been beaten at 4/1 (twice) and at 6/1 in his last three outings.

2. There are in my view an increasing numbers of games which while not maybe “fixed” are the subjects of agreements – certain players are more susceptible than others. I pinpointed one during the week where Economides was beaten in straight sets by Hartfield. Not a shock as such – but Hartfield was backed down to 1.16 to win outright and 1.20 to win in straight sets. At a price of 1.16 to win outright the true odds of winning 2-0 should have been between 1.35 and 1.40 yet people were piling on. I think the Tursonov – Gabashvalli match last night where Tursonov lost 27 from 32 points in the second set was highly suspect.

3. The Masters events will run much truer. The prize funds are bigger, there are more points and more prestige involved.

4. I think the favourite longshot bias which says it is better to back short odds than long odds in the long run is being eroded at least in smaller events and in the earlier stages of bigger events. You have to judge each game on its merits but with factors 1 and 2 above that is making things much more difficult.

Also why do the women's results seem more reliable?

They only seem so – last night Govortsova beat Peer at over 6/1. Mirza whom I tipped was backable at 7/2 against Golovin, Osterloh beat Bartoli at nearly 4/1. Backing anything over 3/1 in yesterdays 2^nd round womens games you would have filled your boots and that’s not unusual.

Short priced accumulators are death usually. I’ve tried to stop myself but I still get bitten.

In running is where it is at. Opposing slow short priced starters, backing long prices that tend to fade etc.

[Wayne]

Cheers mate

[Wittmann 44]

Two from ffice:smarttags" />Croatiafficeffice" />

Berlocq-Troicki

I wouldn’t read too much into Troickis shock win over Djokovic last night. The two know each other most of their lives (Troicki’s interview mentioned that the last time he beat his more famous compatriot was in the under 10s ) and at the end Djokovic did not look too pushed. Troicki is a player on the up but he has come through qualifiers this week and played 5 games and 14 sets already. He laboured through 3 sets against Rusevski , Fabbri and Jarc in qualifying – players ranked 250 and above. The organisers I thought would try to give him some help with a late start but have gone with Moya – Ferrer as the final game under lights so he will have less of a crowd supporting. Berlocq is in only his 2^nd ATP qf but he has a wealth of Challenger experience and overcame a tricky opponent in Hanesc in the 2^nd round saving all 10 bps in the process. Berlocqs won two big Challengers already this year and against an opponent wth a lot of court time already I feel he should be fresher.

1.75 Units Berlocq @ 1.61

Canas-Simon

Simon showed a lot of guts to beat both Davydenko and subsequently Cilic in 3 sets. I watched both games and felt that while his general game was solid his serving was weak and against as good a returner as Canas this will prove fatal. He beat Canas in Rome this year but the Argentine had a thigh injury. Canas has been in good form these last two games not giving up a service break against big serving Karunusic and breaking Ramirez 6 times in 10 return games yesterday. Simon has a barely positive record this year whereas Canas has made 4 finals already this year.

2 Units Canas @ 1.47

[experte007]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Two from ffice:smarttags" />Croatiafficeffice" />

Berlocq-Troicki

I wouldn’t read too much into Troickis shock win over Djokovic last night.

Me neither, the way he struggled in the end almost cost me my whole financial existence. I'll never ever again back this guy even if 5:0 - 40:0 ahead. My Money was on Berlocq and no way I am watching this.

1.75 Units Berlocq @ 1.61

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Canas-Simon

Not very brave but small money on Canas who kinda impressed again.

[Wittmann 44]

1.75 Units Berlocq @ 1.61 -1.75 Units
2 Units Canas @ 1.47 +0.89 Units

ATP Event Staked 39.00 Units
ATP Event Loss -3.95 Units

WTA Event Staked 17.75 Units
WTA Event Profit +5.62 Units

Two poor semis yesterday. Berlcq was poor - deosnt have the guts or game for the ATP game when it matters. Troiki played well to win. Canas completely dominated Simon but the Frenchman looked to have thrown in the towel completely in the second set. Hard to judge Canas although his returning and defensive play as solid as ever.

Just one today

Calleri-Starace

Calleri after starting the year on fire slumped somehwat but is looking like he might retain his 2006 title in Austria. He beat Lapenntti easily yesterday and is now yet to drop a set (he has given up very few breaks either). He has had an easier passage than Starace who for the second day in a row saved match point against a choking Seppi who should have served out the game. Starace has played a lot of tennis as he is also in the doubles SF with Horna. The h to h is 1-1 on clay with Starace winning the most recent. I feel that the fresher Calleri will edge this.

1.75 Units CAlleri @ 1.74

[Wittmann 44]

Starace easily beats Calleri who racked up almost 30 ues in a very poor display.


Today going for a large stakes double on the Croatian and Austrian (Ladies Open)

Moya-Schiavone 5 Units @ 1.66 (LAdbrokes)

Moya takes on shock finalist Pavel wh beat a jump looking Troicki yesterday. Moya leads the clay h to h 3-0 most rceently beating Pavel in 2006 in Bucharest. Moya has been little short of sensational this week dropping sereve just once and not dropping a single set in a veyr tough 1/2 that included beating Wawrinka, Ferrer and a very in form Canas ina high quality match yesterday. A 4 time Umag winner he holds a 42-8 record here and ius having an absolutely great year by his recent mixed standards. Pavel has lost his last 3 finals (all clay) to quality players and another defeat looks nailed on here.

In the women's event Schiavone has contested 8 senior finals and lost all 8 - horrendous reading admittedly but 6 of those losses have been to Henin, Clisters, Davenport, Petrova, Pierece and the top 25 ranked Bondarenko. She faces a novice at WTA level finals although the hometown girl will get plenety of support. Muesburger was broken 8 times in 12 service games yesterday in a shockingly bad match against Knapp and Schiavone pounded her back in May at Roland Garros. Schiavoen to break her duck.

In a month of shocks Frank Dancevic added another at over 6/1 by easily beating Andy Roddick to reach his first ATP final. Roddick is unlikely to ever play a worse game on US hardcourt- his stats were amongst the worst I've ever seen from him on the surface. A trainer was called for him during the game and the rumour is that he had food poisining. I honestly can see no other explanation for a journeyman like Dancevic beating him. He faces Tursonov who saw of the bi serving Querry who plays a similar game (with more variety to Dancevic). Dancevic has a monster serve but Tursonov tends to go well against those types as he can use their power. This is new ground for Dancevic and of the 10 challenge finals he has contested he has lost 6 and all 4 to players ranked \above him. Wins against Clemens, H.S Lu, Kralert and Tanio show the level the Canadian has beaten when it matters. The h to h is 1-1 but Tursonov on his favorite surfaceshould have way too much firepower and nous.

2.5 Units Tursonov @ 1.50

[Wittmann 44]

Well some very comfortable wins today as the favorites finally bite back in straight sets. end up nicely ahead for the week.

1.75 Units Calleri -1.75 Units
Moya-Schiavone 5 Units @ 1.66 +3.30 Units
2.5 Units Tursonov @ 1.50 +1.19 Units
ATP Event Staked 48.25 Units
ATP Event Loss -1.22 Units

WTA Event Staked 17.75 Units
WTA Event Profit +5.62 Units

Total Staked 66 UNits
Total Profit 4.40 Units (+6.68%)