WTA 16th - 22nd June - Palermo (Clay) & Cincinatti (Hardcourt)

[Wittmann 44]

Cincinatti Draw

Live Draws

Palermo Draw

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[Wittmann 44]

This folder looking lonely so

Knapp to beat Vinci (Palermo)

2 Units @ 1.70

Just started and Apologies for not putting up earlier. Vinci hasn't played since Wimbeldon while Knapp made the final in the big Biella Challenger (clay) so should be better acclimiatised. Vinci has lost 8 of the last 10 and has played so little tennis this year I'd suspect an injury.

Have a few for Cincanatti later that I willpost up.

[Wittmann 44]

Actually just the one tonight from Cincinatti

Jidkova-Govortsova

Jidkova a player on the way put faces a player on the way up in Govortsova. The latter beat her on clay in April of this year but I still think the young Govortsova who has barely played 20 games outside the ITF circuit is far too short at 1.46. Jidkova is a journeywoman at best but she has experience and I’m having a small punt here on her.

Lay Govortsova @ 1.46 (0.50 Units Risked)

[Wittmann 44]

Lay Govortsova @ 1.46 (0.50 Units Risked) +1.33 Units
2 Units Knapp @ 1.70 -0.5 Units

Jidkova should have beaten Govortsova in an error strewn match. Had the opportunities to close the second set out but took none. I hedged my stake in running but for the purpose of the records here I’m recording as a loss.

WTA Staked 2.50 Units
WTA Profit 0.83 Units

[Wittmann 44]

One from Palermo

Pennetta - Gallovits

Gallovits over-achieved spectacularly in Barcelona (making a good few people here a bit of money) but she has done nothing much since – she has lost to Pironokova and Del Rios (both over 120 ranked) and she faces a woman who tends to perform very well on home surface. She made the final here in 2004 and the SF in 2005. She made the SF in the big Biella challenger last week going out to the eventual winner. Her record at home in Italy is a very respectable W49 L20 on clay. She has also won the sole h to h on clay (back in 02 admittedly)

1.75 Units Pennetta @ 1.56

[Wittmann 44]

Very easy for Pennetta who wins 2 & 1.

1.75 Units Pennetta @ 1.56 +0.93 Units

WTA Event Staked 4.25 Units
WTA Event Profit +1.76 Units

[engineer]

Sorry to see you here alone, Wittmann, obviously WTA is not so popular for punters.

For me today it's Kloesel against Knapp and odds over 3.0 worth taking. Kloesel played really good when eliminating Pironkova in the first round and that's enough for me to put 1/10 on her.

[Wittmann 44]

Hiya Engineerfficeffice" />

Yeah its quiet in here but no bother. Agree 100% re Knoessel. Was on Knapp on Monday but she made it difficult for herself and the h to h is good for the German girl.


A few from ffice:smarttags" />Palermo


Dominquez Lino-Cristea

Lino not in the best of form recently but I think she is operateing at a higher level than the Romanian whose main scalps have been taken at events at home in Bucharest. Outside Romania she is 1-4 against top 100 players on clay. Lino has been playing (and losing admittedly) to the likes of Williams, Safaraova , Safina and Vesnina but she hasn’t disgraced herself in any of those games. Worth a nibble.

1.50 Units Lino @ 1.82

Zapankaolva – Radawanska

Radawanska will be a force to be reckoned with very soon especially on clay. Shes the 2006 junior French Open champion and is fresh from a win at the big Biella Challenger (on clay) in Italy. Her opponent is having a decent 2007 however with 4 clay SF (3 Challenger) appearances ( 3 at home admittedly). She was walloped by Radawanska at the Poles home event in Warsaw last year but she was in the midst of a horror slump and moved back to the lower events to build up some points and I presume get some confidence back. She made the Final here back in 2005 when she was playing some fairly decent tennis and looks overpriced at 4.40

0.5 Units Zapankaolova @ 4.2

Knoessel-Knapp

Nothing to add to Engineers comments but Knoessel the value in the battle of the Ks. Cover with a 2-1 stake on Knapp who is at home even though her win against Vinci was laboured.

0.75 Units Knoessel @ 3.70

[Wittmann 44]

2 from Cincinatti tonight

Craybas-Govortosova

The young Govortosova made very heavy weather of beating Jidkova last night and was lucky the older Russian didn’t take her chances (she made 7 from 17 bps). She meets another veteran tonight but Craybas is a good bit steadier than Jidkova and has posted some decent results on US hardcourts. They met on an indoor hardcourt back in Feb which Craybas won 3 & 2.

1.25 Units Craybas @ 1.60

Schultz-McCarthy – Schynder

This is a very very speculative punt on the big serving Dutch woman McCarthy. She’s made a comeback after a longtime out of the game and has climbed very quickly from outside the top 1000 to the low 200s. Past 36 now her best days are definitely behind her but event wins at Surbiton and some US Challenge events this year show that she has still some threat. She has always been a big server which still seems in good shape given she has fired 33 aces in the last 4 games. Schynder a former winner here has an excellent record in Cincinatti but is prone to lapses and has dropped sets to some poor players in the past. If McCarthy can take it to a tb then she has a chance to nick a set.
Schynder 2-1 0.25 Units @ 5.1 (average)
Lay Schynder @ 1.16 0.25 Units Risked

[Wittmann 44]

1.50 Units Lino @ 1.82 +1.17 Units
0.5 Units Zapankaolova @ 4.2 -0.5 Units
0.75 Units Knoessel @ 3.70 -0.75 Units
1.25 Units Craybas @ 1.60 -1.25 Units
Schynder 2-1 0.25 Units @ 5.1 (average) -0.25 Units
Lay Schynder @ 1.16 0.25 Units Risked -0.25 Units

WTA Event Staked 8.75 Units
WTA Event Loss -0.07 Units

ATP Event Staked 36.00 Units
ATP Event Loss -3.61 Units

Didn’t go too well yesterday in either Palermo or Cincinatti – Lino won the first game but Craybas fell apart after her winning the first set was interrupted by rain. Schultz McCarthy actually created 10 bps against Patty Schynder but could not convert any and the Swiss woman was far more effective.

From Palermo

Knapp-Loit

Knapp has for me been a winner (against Vinci) and a loser (against Kloessel) this week for me. She faces Emile Loit the solid French clay courter who has gone off the boil somewhat in the second ½ of the year since pulling from the QF in Budapest. She has a surprisingly poor record at the QF stage – she is W3 L9 on clay since 2006 at this stage and it is not like she has played the cream of the crop – in the games (mid 2006 on) that I have odds for she lost 4 from 6 at the QF stage when favourite. Knapp is at home and is fresh from a solid showing in Biella and can make this akward for the Frenchwoman

Knapp 1 Unit @ 2.38

Sazay vs Radawanksa

Radawanska won the Biella challenger last week here in Italy and has performed very solidly here so far – she is the 2006 French Open juniors champion and meets the 2005 French Open junior champion – both have had very similar results since those triumphs with a big challenger winner each (Biella and Zagreb). Both have taken some decent wins over top 25 opponents. Pricing this to me would make Radawanska slightly favourite. I wouldn’t make her 1.65 favorite so she looks a lay to me here.

Lay Radawanksa 1 Unit @ 1.65

[Mighty Magyar]

better luck today mate

[rcgills]

Good stuff there, Wittmann, two decent priced winners

[Wittmann 44]

Thanks RC.

Mirza-Govortosova

Been opposing Govortsova (fruitlessly ) all week – she has come from behind against both Jidkova and Craybas but the games have been littered with errors and opponent chokes and Mirza is a better player than either of her opponents to date. Mirza created lots of chances in both her games to date and against a much less experienced opponent playing on her favourite surface I’m hoping I can see the last of Govortosova here.

1.75 Units Mirza @ 1.54


Amanmuradova-Osterloh

This game looks mispriced to me – Osterloh is a real journeywoman. She has home advantage here but Amanmuradova has shown a lot of guts in her games to date especially last night against the useful Mattek when coming from a break down in the final set to win a tense tb. She has shown some decent Challenger form and with a bit of luck can push the more experienced (and lot less mobile) Yank hard here.

0.75 Units Amanmuradova @ 2.46

[Wittmann 44]

Good stuff yesterday with 4 from 4 including 3 at very tasty odds against. If Safin had won his game last night and completed my US men’s double I’d have been showing a nice profit on the mens events too but the guy is unfortunately a fcukwit.

Knapp 1 Unit @ 2.38 +1.31 Units
Lay Radawanksa 1 Unit @ 1.65 +1.45 Units
1.75 Units Mirza @ 1.54 +0.90 Units
0.75 Units Amanmuradova @ 2.46 +1.04 Units

WTA Event Staked 13.25 Units
WTA Event Loss +4.63 Units

ATP Event Staked 41.25 Units
ATP Event Loss -3.61 Units

Prices look about right today in Palermo SFs - I'd fancy Muller and Sazay but can leave alone.



More interesting in Cininatti - the Mirza-Chekevatdze match Chekavatdze looks too short at around 1.31. She is serving a lot of dfs and I think Mirza will have her chances but it is one for i/r play.

Waiting for prices to stabilise in the other game but I might oppose Morigami against the YOung Amamuradova - Morigami knocked out top seed Schynder but I don't think the Swiss girl is in particualrly good form and 4s look big for a player who is playing very well. Morigami has a powder puff 2nd serve that is very vulnerable if she does not get her first serve in.

[Wittmann 44]

Muller wins in Palermo - other match to finish. No cash down unfortunately.

Tonight in Cincinatti I'm going to oppose Morigami who goes off artifically short due a lot to her victory over Schynder.

Amamuradova 0.75 Units @ 3.60
Morigami 0.25 Units @ 0.25