ATP 16th-22nd June - Stuttgart & Amersfoot (Clay) , Los Angeles (Hard)

[Wittmann 44]

Very easy to say now with the benefit of hindsight, but these kind of tournaments certainly don't seem to be ones for backing short-priced favourites.

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Yeah I rarely go below 1.40 in ATP anyway. Not like I lost a whole lot. Andreev in trouble as well – that’s biggish

[Wittmann 44]

Man yesterday sucked. Down around 4 units overall this week between ATP and WTA results which if it holds up will easily be my worst performance since joining here. Lots of non triers in Amersfoot (Berdych dropping serve 4 times to Lopez? Volandri losing very timiddly from a set ahead?). At the business end now I think however that in a very open field in Holland everyone will be giving it 100% now that a title is up for grabs.

Amersfoot

With that in mind I’ll be trying another rollover on Betfair – 1.50 Units to be rolled over on

Youznhy @ 1.31
Moya @ 1.18
Andreev @ 1.19

The Youznhy match is the one I’d have slight doubts over given it involves two Russians but Youznhy has a great record against other Russians and to the best of my knowledge has never been involved in anything fishy. Korolev had medical treatment for his knee in set two. Prior to this event he has been in very poor form.

Moya is having his best season since 2005, is at his highest rating since then, has yet to drop serve this week and will have far too much class here. Andreev came from 1 behind against Volandri to show some interest in proceedings and with a weak opponent in Darcis will fancy his chances here.

If this comes in I’ll be looking at putting it all on Serra to beat Haase. Haase did beat the Frenchman on grass in Halle this year and is at home but Serra has a great record at the QF stage – he has won 4 of his 5 ATP QFs and has won 12 of his last 14 (including Challengers). This is a first ATP QF for Haase and nerves will surely play a part.

Having found nothing to get worked up about all week in Stuttgart I’m going crazy today.

Wawrinkas odds have fallen from 1.41 to 1.21 – looks like Vanek won’t be trying to hard. Straight sets looks the likely result here.
Otherwise I’ll be backing dogs today.

Chela-Verdasco

Supported Verdasco against Ferrer for a tasty result on Wednesday but a good general rule with Verdsaco in my book is support when a dog and oppose when a favourite. The h to h is 2-2 although Verdasco has won the last two on clay. Chela hasn’t played particularly well this week but he is a tough competitor and at 2.48 I can take the chance that Verdasco will self combust.

1 Unit Chela @ 2.48

Monaco-Nadal

Nadal played yesterday with a heavily strapped knee. With more important events coming up there is a chance (I’m hoping less than 20/1) that he might scratch here – their sole meeting was a humbling for Monaco but he might be a bt more competitive today. He staged a great comeback against Koubek yesterday.

Lay Nadal @ 1.05 (0.25 Units Risked)

Ferrero-Lopez

I’d have questions over Lopezs win yesterday over Berdych. It looked way too easy which suggests the Czech might have been waiting for his appearance fee to clear his bank account. Having said that Ferrero made heavy weather of beating Hartfield and has been terribly inconsistent this year. In an all Spanish clash Lopez worth chancing.

1 Unit Lopez @ 3.05

[engineer]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

1 Unit Chela @ 2.48

Lay Nadal @ 1.05 (0.25 Units Risked)

1 Unit Lopez @ 3.05

Wittmann just copied and pasted my post
To be honest I just came to the same picks myself and I'm putting a quid on each of them, no more explanations needed after Wittmann's post. Yesterday was terrrible, really. Let's hope it would be better today.

Vanek is trying at the second set, I'll have a small lay of Wawrinka also.

[Wittmann 44]

Vanek had some sort of strapping on yesterday - the "I'm going down in two strapping"

Wawrinka is 1/2 crocked himself with all his own injury problems

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

but a good general rule with Verdsaco in my book is support when a dog and oppose when a favourite.

I'd go along with that, I'd say. Am on Chela too, and you may just have talked me into a small lay of Nadal. Not so sure on the Ferrero v Lopez one though, I think the price is about right on that one, I'll stay clear there.

[Wittmann 44]

Another bizarre day in Holland - Moya loses at over 6/1 as does Andreev. I watched the Moya watch and I don't thinkm iot was a case of non trying. Moya played not particularly well and Eschauer played very well. Hard to believe the guy is 33 and hasn't a single ATP event to his name - indeed if my records are correct I can't even find a single ATP SF!!! appearance to his name - he has made almost 30 challenger sfs but not a single one ATP. Big question is will he do a Wayne Arthurs and win a title in the twilight of his career. The sports romantic in me will be cheering for him - he will have a winnable tie against Haase or Serra in the SF. Get in there Werner

Two nice wins for me today with Lopez digging deep against Ferrero who looks a spent force from what I've seen recently and a gutsy from behind win by Chela proving again that Verdasco is a poor player to back as favorite.

I think the big hitters will triumph tonight in Los Angeles - just a question of checking is the price right.

[Wittmann 44]

QF stage in Los Angeles where the shocks have been fewer than in Holland and Stuttgart.

I don’t see many shocks tonight – Spadea has a great h to h against Blake but a number of the wins were when Blake was struggling back after his bet post injury and Spadea has been poor both this year and this particular event. Blake dug deep saving a match point against Goldstein and with his serve in good order he should blast Spadea out of it.

Ditto Safin against Lee – Safin muddled past Bastl but muddle he did and I don’t think the lightweight Korean can trouble him. I rarely do multiples but I’ll make an exception here.

Safin-Blake 1.25 Unit Double @ 2.17 (Pinnacle)

Stepanek-Fleishman / Kiefer-Berrer

[Wittmann 44]

Yesterday should have been great – two nice odds against shouts and I managed to come to the conclusion that all the favorites would win in the US – well they all did bar Safin who I of course had in a double with Stepanek. Lostit from 1 set up as did Moya blowing it against Eschauer.

Made a tiny profit on the day but should have been much much better. Ahead overall due to some excellent women’s results.

1 Unit Chela @ 2.48 +1.41 Units
1 Unit Lopez @ 3.05 +1.95 Units
Lay NAdal @ 1.05 -0.25 Units
Rollover 1.5 Units Youznhy,Moya -1.50 Units
1 Unit Double Blake / Safin -1.25 Units

ATP Event Staked 41.25 Units
ATP Event Loss -3.26 Units

WTA Event Staked 13.25 Units
WTA Event Loss +4.63 Units

Today in Stuttgart I’d fancy Chela to have too much for Wawrinka who has had a very easy ride to the SF stage – Canas retired first round, Cilic is poor on clay and Vanek was injured and or disinterested yesterday. Chela battled against Verdasco yesterday with a typically gutsy display. I like backing the combative Chela as he always gives 100%. Should be tight but I’ll give Chela the edge.

1.50 Units Chela @ 1.59

[Wittmann 44]

Chela loses yesterday after winning the first. Very impressed with Wawrinka yesterday. After he found his range he git some greatshots especially off his backhand. So impressed that I'm having a few quid on him against Nadal

0.25 Units LKasy Nadal @ 1.06
0.10 Units Nadal 2-1 @ 8.60

The other final in Amersfoot today is an absolute nightmare for the sponsors - they werehoping for a Youznhy - local player Haase final - instead they got two ATP final virgins - 32 year old Werner Eschauer (rank 64) and young Belgian Steve Darcis (ranked nearly 300)

The unlikelyness of this final in the most bizarre set of results I've seen in a long while is shown by the fact Darcis was backed at over 330 on Beftair and Eschauer at over 95!!!

I'm cheering for Eschauer today as I said earlier in the thread. The romantic in me would like to see the veteran have a carerr ATP win. He'll be getting some of my money as well. He has been in great form on the Challenge circuit this year with 4 finals wins (3 clay) and he has won 11 career Challenger events on clay. Darcis has had a tough slog to get here. He came through qualifying and played a marathon 3 setter against Youznhy yesterday. Eschauer from what I saw against Moya has been very solid and I think he will have a little bit more in the tank today.

1.50 Units Eschauer @ 1.87

Get in there Werner

[Wittmann 44]

Eschauer blows the final in a big way. Bossed the second set completely bjut could not convert a single one of his 6 bps.
Well done Darcis. Well done whoever backed him at 330/1 as well

Great effort by Wawrinka against Nadal. Should have taken the handicap bet on him but gave a good run for my money.

Finished furstratingly with a small loss this week of just under 2 units. Could have been worse given the shocks in Holland most of which bar Moya in the SF I avoided but for the work put in this week very disspirting. Picked the winner in the womens final as well today and couldn't get matched

Might have a lumpy bet on Chekavatdze in Cincinnati to finish the week on a high yet

ATP Event Staked 44.35 Units
ATP Event Loss -6.61 Units

WTA Event Staked 13.25 Units
WTA Event Profit +4.63 Units

[Wittmann 44]

Well Chekevatdze just won in 1 & 3 for a nice final ladies winner. One match left this week to start at 8.00 Uk time which is the Los Angeles final between Blake and Stepanek. Stepanek has bounced back very well from his wrist problems to make the SF in Gstad and a first US final (and first ATP hardcourt final). He has yet to drop serve which reads a lot more impressively than Blakes faltering progress here. As against that however Blake leads the h to h 3-1 (sole loss a tight one on clay which is not Blakes surface). Blake has a grear record in finals and tends to handle the big occasions well - he is W6 L4 on outdoor hard and those losses were to Roddick, Fed Srichaphan (back when he was a force) and Malisse. Stepanek has tended to choke when it matters. His sole final win came against Christoph Rochus in Rotterdam last year . He lost his only (Challenege) final against H.T.Lee. Stepanek when faced with the best tends to wilt - he was in similarly dominant form in Gstad until he met Mathieu who beat him with ease. The only thing that makes me less confident about Blake tonight is the fact that Step got a bye last night against Kiefer who pulled with knee issues. I'm still willing to take him on however. Blake will make errors but he is also more positive than Stepanek and if he can keep his serve up he should win this.

1.75 Units Blake @ 1.59

[Wittmann 44]

Thats a 10.00 start not 8.00

[Zozo the Duke]

J Blake - R Stepanek

Pick: J Blake
Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.55
Bookmaker: Expekt

Blake once again proved that he is playing much better at his home ground, in North America. He had tough match against H. T. Lee in the semifinals and after great fight he deserved the place in the finals.

Stepanek got him self a place in the final after Kiefer withdraw from the semi finals after an injury. Also he haven’t most a single set so far, against Bogdanovic (Bogdanovic retired after losing the first set 6:1) against Fish 6:2 6:2, Fleishman 6:4 6:2.

These players played against each other 4 times and Blake won last 3 of them. All 3 victories were on hard court and the only win that Stepanek has in these mutual matches is on clay. I think that Stepanek will give hard time to Blake, but when Blake is playing in North America, he is playing completely different. He has huge support from the crowd and he is giving 100% in every point. I expect him to win this tournament and although Stepanek is not playing bad at all, Blake is dominating in mutual matches on hard court and this is great opportunity to start US/Canada season with a win.

[Wittmann 44]

Blake blinks first . Thought he would win after Stepanek choked in the second set but Stepanek dug deep and rompted teh decider. Disappointing end to a disappointing week. Might take this week of to recharge the batteries.

ATP Event Staked 46.10 Units
ATP Event Loss -8.36 Units

WTA Event Staked 16.50 Units
WTA Event Profit +5.33 Units