ATP July 9th - July 15th Sweden, Switzerland (Clay), Newport (Grass)

[Wittmann 44]

Catella Swedish Open 1st Rnd

Selection Price Selection Price
Robredo, Tommy 1/6 Horna, Luis 7/2

Moya, Carlos 1/20 Navarro-Pastor, Ivan 7/1

Bolelli, Simone 5/1 Soderling, Robin 1/10

Rochus, Olivier 5/2 Nieminen, Jarkko 1/4

Monaco, Juan 1/6 Gulbis, Ernest 7/2

Garcia-Lopez, Guillermo 6/1 Ferrer, David 1/14


Campbell's Hall Of Fame 1st Rnd

Selection Price Selection Price
Garcia-Lopez, Guillermo 6/1 Ferrer, David 1/14



Allianz Suisse Open 1st Rnd

Selection Price Selection Price

Davydenko, Nikolay 1/5 Monfils, Gael 3/1

Kohlschreiber, Philip 1/6 Hernych, Jan 7/2

Montanes, Albert 15/8 Andreev, Igor 4/11

Ramirez-Hidalgo, Ruben 4/1 Gasquet, Richard 1/7

Acasuso, Jose 1/3 Lapentti, Nicolas 2/1

[Wittmann 44]

Prices above from Stan James.

Wimbeldon over and the European clay season enters its second last month with 7 World Series events in July - first two in Gsatad (Switzerland) and Bastad (Sweden). Final grass event of the year in Newport (US).

Don't intend to spend much time on the outrights but if you are the bottom half of the draw in Switzerland looks shaky - Gasquet the 3rd seed and last years winner and Youznhy the 2nd seed must have major fitness doubts (if indeed they show up). Starace in that 1/2 of the draw might be worth an e/w punt at an event which he has been at the SF and QF stage in the last two showings there - best current price is at Stan James and I've had a nibble at 33/1 e/w.

[Wittmann 44]

Forgot to mention - Gstaad played at altitude (3,000 + feet) which will help the big severs (Monfils, Gicquel, Lopez)

[Wittmann 44]

Bastad

Lots of 1 siders in a fairly weak event – Moya an ex winner here should beat Navaroo and ditto Almagro against Prpic. Robredo has points to defend as winner last year but Horna leads the H to H 2-1 and 1.19 on BF looks short. He was playing Bundesliga tennis during the week (none too convincingly as a defeat to Azzarro shows) but he might nick a set. One for tradeing if you have a TV that picks this up. Volandri looks very short against fellow countryman Volandri

Massu-Korolev

No prices up anywhere yet but if I can get over 1.60 on Massu I will take it. Korolev picked up a viral infection back in April and has played only 3 games since with a single victory against Wawrinka who has had injury problems of his own. Even prior to that he has been finding the jump from Challenge tour to ATP a difficult one to Master and he is 11-14 for year exclusive of Challengers. Massu hasn’t gone particularly well here which is surprising given it’s a pretty slow court but he has run into some decent players. He is consistent and a good battler and I’d expect him to have a bit too much here.

2 Units Massu @ Price > 1.60 (if available)

Luzzi-Volandri

Volandri looks very short at 1.17 on Betfair against fellow countryman Luzzi – both made the SF at the Turin (clay) challenger last week with Volandri going out to eventual winner Berlocq. Neither seems to have played particularly well if the results are anything to go by. Luzzi leads the H to H 2-0 (3 setters on clay). Might look to lay Volandri’s straight sets here when some liquidity gets up.

Nieminen-Rochus

Ollie Rochus having a terrible 2007 losing 12 of the last 13. He doesn’t seem to have recovered from the injury sustained in Miami. He is 0-3 here although he took sets of Youzny and Moya in those losses and has aW4 L3 against Nieminen. He needs to stop the rot badly as he is beginning to slip in the rankings . Nieminen is solid on clay and made the QF here last year before losing to eventual winner Robredo and he did win on clay. Stan James the only firm pricing this up right now go 1.25. Betfair go 1.36 currently which looks closer to the mark. If it goes above my magical mark of 1.44 I will pull the trigger here. I can only see this price collapsing however and the H to H puts me off at anything below 1.44.

2 Units Nieminen @ Price > 1.40 (if available)

Gastad

Gaudio-Vliegen

Gaudios ongoing confidence problems well documented but he looks big to me here at evens on Betfair – he has beaten Vliegen here on clay (back in 03 admittedly) but his record here is fantastic QF (06), W(05), SF (03) F(02) SF (00). The winner put him out in both 2006 and 2003. He skipped Wimbeldon to try and get into form for this although a first round loss in the Czecj open to big serving Karunsic is a worry. Vliegen serves big but is not in great form in 2007 and as Gaudio showedfor two sets against Hewitt in Roland Garros when confident he can still play some decent tennis. Happy hunting ground to help Gaudio here. Medium – Large stakes.

1.75 Units Gaudio @ 1.98


Cilic-Stepanek

Both came through qualifiers here without dropping a set although the opposition was poor. Stepanek seems happier playing doubles these days although he hasn’t decided to play here which might show he is feeling some confidence. Cilic with a big serve and decent movement around the court will be very motivated here as he made the SF stage here last year in his best ATP showing and will be defending some serious points. Given Stepanek has decent form here with a QF and two SF appearances between 2004 and 2002 and his non doubles participation I think he might be up for this. Cilic hasn’t convinced at the ATP level yet and Mrs Hingis the call. No prices firmed up yet but I’ll back him over 1.70 if available.

Stepanek 1.25 Units @ Price Over 1.75

Koubek-Youznhy

I’m opposing Youznhy here simply due to his virtual retirement against Nadal and his ongoing back problems. The guy looked down and out and I will be a small bit surprised if he shows up tomorrow. Koubek has beaten Youznhy on carpet and when they met on clay in Munich this year Youznhy won in 3. Worth a small punt.

Lay Youznhy 0.5 Units Risked @ 1.24



Montanes - Andreev

Andreev looks a bit underpriced here. He did have an excellent French Open and easily beat Montanes 2 & 2 on clay two years ago but Montanes is having his best year on the ATP tour and their prior meeting was with the Spaniard coming out of a massive slump. Worth a dabble at a bg price.

0.75 Units Lay Andrrev @ 1.34

[rcgills]

Just 2 for me today. 1.5 on Stepanek is short enough to tempt me to lay him against Cilic, and I don't think Berrer should be the outsider against Guccione in Newport. Had a decent run to the QF at the Ordina open on grass. Guccione has a SF at Surbiton to his name, but that was a challenger event. Laid Guccione at 1.6.

[Wittmann 44]

Gaudio has drifted like a barge against Vliegen and is now 2.58 from evens last night. Looks like someone knows something there . One of those times when taking the early price might not have been such a good idea.

Nothing I was interested in looks inviting based on the prices.

Have swerved Stepanek. Too short at around 1.54. Cilic might even be worth a bit here. Stepanek is better but not that much better. 0.75 Units Cilic @ 2.88

Ditto Massu at a joke 1.44. Have laid him for 0.75 Units risked.

Nieminen too short. Have swerved.

Did get 10 Euros on Straace on Betfair at 75/1!!

Finally 1 Unit on Vanek to beat Serra. Came through qualifiers very easily and is 2-1 on clay H to H (2-3) overall. Will be acclimatised better than his French opponent to the thinner air.

Haven't had a chance to look at Newport yet but Berrer is on my short list. Berrer has played some decent games of late. Guccione is a big serve and very little else.

[engineer]

Damn, no scoreboards or even livescores available for the current games

I'm going for Stefan Koubek today against Youzhny at over 4.50, BF.
IMO the Russian will have some problems with his motivation and concentration and after being so close to the big time on Wimbledon's grass, now coming back to the dust - some players may just give it a miss...
At least Koubek should be able to have a nice start, so the trading posibilities will come ...

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by engineer

Damn, no scoreboards or even livescores available for the current games

Yes there is, Engineer. Go to the main ATP page ATPtennis.com, The official site for men's professional tennis!

In the middle of the page, there's a "Tournaments" section, which rotates through the 3 current tournaments. For each one, they have a "Live scores" link, as well as the draws, order of play, etc.

[Wittmann 44]

Looks like the English weather has moved across to Switzerland. Gsatas rained off for the day looks like.

[Wittmann 44]

From Newport (Grass)

Gimelstob-Spadea

Two ageing Yanks square off here in a weak event that both of them haave decent form in it. I would normally be extremely reluctant to trust Spadea on grass but there are circumstances that make him appeal today. He is 16-18 for the year and has a 4-2 h to h lead over Gimelstob (all pre 2003) although Gimelstob won the only grass game. Both are previous finalists here (Gimelstob 06 and Spadea 05).

Gimlestob is however very much in the walking wounded camp at the moment. He had a back operation tail end 2006 and does not seem to have recovered very well. He is W3 L8 for the year with the three wins against players all outside the top 500. If you take those games out of his stats he is W1 L18 in sets in his other 8 games. He has also thrown 25 dfs in hs last two games which suggest his biggest weapon might not be firing. Spadea on a poor run of late but he has been operateing at a much higher level and is worth chancing today.

1.75 Units Spadea @ 1.66


Guccione-Berrer

Not much to add to RCGills here. Berrer playing some decent tennis and has a serve to match Guccione. Would fancy at least 1 tb here. Guccione definitely has the edge but I wouldn’t rely on him at 1.55.

Lay Guccione @ 1.55 (0.75 Units Risked)

[Wittmann 44]

Horna spanking Robredo. Taken him i/r at end of first set 2 Units @ 1.95

[Wittmann 44]

The day started badly with Gaudio and Korolev both losing in 3 sets but had 4 winners to round of the day very nicely. Number of matches carried over. Bad weather in both Sweden and Switzerland means that it is likely that there will be some cancelled matchs. Worth keeping an eye on players defending points from next weeks games who might be reluctant to play too hard in delayed conditions (Ferrer, Acasuso, Ramirez Hidlago)

1.75 Units Gaudio @ 1.98 -1.75 Units
0.75 Units risked. Lay Massu @ 1.44 -0.75 Units
Lay Volandri 2-0 @ 1.53 (0.75 Units Risked) +1.34 Units
Horna i/r at end of first set 2 Units @ 1.95 +1.86 Units
1.75 Units Spadea @ 1.66 +1.10 Units
Lay Guccione @ 1.55 (0.75 Units Risked) +1.30 Units

Today Staked 7.75 Units
Today Profit 3.10 Units

Incidentally I can see eyebrows being raised by the betting patterns in the Luzzi-Volandri match. There were rumours of a fix beforehand and figuring backing Vaolndri would make no one rich I thought it possible that Volandri might lose the first. He did. He then went a break down in the second but rather than have his price rise it dropped lower and lower. He won the second and crusied the last set 6-1. Looked very iffy from where I was.

[Wittmann 44]

Bastad



Lots of short prices again (Soderling, Monaco) that I can leave alone.

Ferrer-Lopez

Of interest however is the short price on Ferrer. I will be opposing Ferrer against Garcia Lopez – I’m not sure how much he will put in here given that Stuttgart is where he will need to defend some big points next week. The h to h is 3-2 Ferrer and Lopez has won 2 of the 3 breakers. I’m sure as fellow countrymen they know each others game well and while Lopez is having a bad season Ferrer has done very little here and I would question his motivation. He should be available to lay around 1.15 (minimum)

Lay Ferrer @ 1.18 or below(0.50 Units)

Hernandez-Johannson

Hernandez having a very good 2007 won a big Challenger in Germany before Wimbeldon and has some decent scalps on clay this year. Clay never Johanssons surface as a W24 L35 career record shows. He has only played this event (in his home country) twice in the last seven years (both first round exits) and against an inform Hernandez I can see this being very one sided. He is also suffering from an eye condition at the moment and I think this is him going through the motions.

2.25 Units Hernandez @ 10/21 (Pinnacle)

Gstad

Lots of short prices in the opening round again that I can’t get too excited about either way.

Gicquel-Hartfield

Gicquel has clawed his way into the top 50 this last year (how I’m actually not too sure after almost an entire career at Challenger level) but I still think he’s a decent serve and not much else. He leads the H to H 1-0 (clay 06) but Hartfield is a reasonable player against opponents of this caliber and I would price this closer.

1.25 Units Hartfield @ 25/18 (Pinnacle)

Eschauer-Lammer

Lammer ranked nearly 300 gets a hometown wildcard here against Austrian veteran Eschauer. Eschauer seems very at home in Switzerland has he has won 4 of his 10 clay titles (all Challnger) here (all within last two years). He has won 4 titles in 2007 and at this level is a decent player. He is W25 L7 for the year against W17 L10 for Lammer whom he beat 4 & 3 on clay in 2006. Lammer is 1 for 4 here at Gastad (sole win against a player ranked over 500) and while I’m usually reluctant to back a player giving up nearly 8 years to his opponent Eschauer looks a cut above.

2 Units Eschauer @ 1.42

Gasqeut-Ramirez Hidlago

Gasquet must be feeling the strain after a grueling Wimbeldon. He is defending a title here but Ramirez has beaten him on clay in both meetings (back in 03) and will surely not get Gasquet in a more vulnerable state. Hidalgos 2007 form very mixed but worth a small dabble more on Gasquet’s possible weakness than his strength.

Lay Gasquet @ 1.24 (0.75 Units Risked)

[rcgills]

With you on the lay of Gasquet today, Wittmann, although the price has risen slightly, laid him at 1.28.

Few more from Gstaad - laid Mathieu v Roitman @ 1.23. Mathieu lost 1st round here last year to Dusan Vemic (ranked 425 at the time), and Roitman's back on his preferred surface of clay now.

Laid Starace 2-0 v Hajek @ 1.84, H2H is 2-1 Starace, but one of his wins was through Hajek retiring. All were on clay, and Hajek took the most recent meeting in straight sets. Hajek has retired in 7 tournaments so far this year , but he's a decent clay courter, and has been losing finalist twice in clay court events this year.

Laid Wawrinka v Vassello Arguelles @ 1.56, simply think this one is closer than the odds suggest.

And lastly one from Bastad, laid Soderling 2-0 @ 1.6. Soderling not particularly at home on clay, a 46-41 career record. Bolelli in comparison is 81-38. Think Bolelli is capable of winning this, but I'll play slightly safer and simply back him to take a set.

[giorgia]

I am a bit upset after Volandri-Luzzi Match.

Luzzi was ahead 1 set + 1 break,
and he lost 2nd and 3rd set...

Many friends say this was fixed.
Is it likely?

Are there players well known for fixing matches?
Together with italians, I heard about argentinians.

Thanks, bye.

Giorgia