ATP July 9th - July 15th Sweden, Switzerland (Clay), Newport (Grass)

[Cinny]

nice write-ups..im gunna grab myself a slice of gasquet and moya for def

whats your verdict on quereshi tomorrow.. id be tempted?

[rcgills]

With you on Moya today, would've gone for Horna too, but I backed him on the outright yesterday so I'll stick with that for now.

Have opposed Gasquet, think Wimbledon will catch up with him at some stage, and I think it could well be today. 1.5 on Stepanek also short enough to convince me to lay him, and I've backed Monfils at evens v Mathieu.

[Wittmann 44]

whats your verdict on quereshi tomorrow.. id be tempted?

At the prices of Quershi around 1.50 I’d be on Norman to be honest. He has a big serve which picks him up cheap points (as Quershi does) and while Quershis the better grass court player Norman put out the in form Berrer last round so must be in some form.

[Wittmann 44]

One for Newportt tonight that looks a cracking bit of value.

Zverev to beat Santoro

Santoro struggled past big serving Dancevic last night despite the Canadian having 15 break points he could only convert 2 when it mattered. Santoro obviously felt the effects as he pulled from the doubles at the QF stage with heat exhaustion subsequently. Zverev is up and coming and plays a serve and volley game nicely suited to grass. He came from behind to beat Udomchoke last night and looks very big here.

1.25 Units Zverev @ 3.40

[Cinny]

Too late into the bookies for Moya

backed Gasquet

[Wittmann 44]

Good stuff RC

Moya wins easily but like you say looks like fatigue caught up with Gasquet. Didn’t create a single bp

Unlucky there Cinny. Worst of both worlds

[Cinny]

ah well.. well used to it, theres always tomorrow

[Wittmann 44]

Moya wins but the 3 other selections lose very easily. Still marginally ahead this week but won't be buying myself anything nice

Gstad

Stepanek - MAthieu

Big big price on Stepanek here. He is 10-0 in sets for the event this week and didn't drop serve once in his 3 main draw games. He also leasds MAthieu 3-2 on the H to H, has won one on clay and the most recent defeat was in the midst of his 2007 slump earlier in the year. Stepanek is an annoying frustrating player to play against. Slows the game down when behind, speeds up when ahead. Mathieu was gifted the game yesterday by MOnfils who served 9dfs and who confirmed yet again for me why he is not to be trusted at odds on. Lopez too had his chances but could not take them. Stepanek made the SF twice here before. I think he might go one better today at a valkue price.

1.25 Units Stepanek @ 2.68

Bastad

Moya-Almagro

Moya in the best form for years. Almagro a decent player but prone to nerves. His SF victories when it matters have been against lesser players. Moys worth a shout here.

1.50 Units Moya @ 1.64

[rcgills]

Finally managed to actually get in to this thread, about an hour after I first tried

Anyway, I'm with you on Stepanek, Wittmann. I've opposed Mathieu all through this tournament, and I've opposed Stepanek a couple of times too However, Stepanek has always seemed far more comfortable in screwing up my bets than Mathieu has, so on that basis, and given the H2H and the price, Stepanek looks the decent bet here @ 2.68.

Also gone with Garbin to beat Golovin @ 2.8 in the Fed Cup. Not much between the two players in terms of ranking, and Golovin hasn't been playing much tennis lately, Wimbledon her only tournament since the last round of the Fed Cup in mid-April. Home advantage for Italy I think may just swing it in Garbin's favour.

[Wittmann 44]

1.5 Units Gasquet @ 1.71 -1.50 Units
0.75 Units Horna @ 3.10 -0.75 Units
1.25 Units MOya @ 1.82 +0.97 Units
1.25 Units Zverev @ 3.40 -1.25 Units
1.25 Units Stepanek @ 2.68 -1.25 Units
1.50 Units Moya @ 1.64 -1.50 Units

Today Staked 8.00 Units
Today Loss -5.28 Units

Event Staked 41.00 Units
Event Loss -1.83 Units

Well that was a pretty ugly day. Stepanek didn’t create a single bp and Moya crumbled badly serving 9 dfs. Went from a nice little profit to a not so nice little loss.

One final bet on the Gstad final. Mathieu to beat Seppi. Seppi had a huge shock yesterday beating Andreev in a third set tb but this is his first senior ATP final (he lost two challengers) and I think the occasion might be too much for him. Mathieu is 2-0 on the h to h (both 2006) and in the form he seems to be in should be a lock to win this tomorrow. The 1.29 won’t last.

Mathieu to beat Seppi 5 Units @ 1.29

In the other final in Sweden Ferrer takes on Almagro whom he beat on hardcourt in 2006 twice. Almagro was holding on a bit against Moya in the end when he led 4-0 in the final set only to look like being pegged back he managed to dig in. I think it will be closer than the prices show for Ferrer but Ferrer again has a lot more experience than Almagro and should win.

[Wittmann 44]

Mathieu wins although harder than I thought it would be +1.38 Units to leave a loss of 0.45 units for the week. Ferrer dismantles Almagro in 2 & 1 which is a pretty humbling result.

Mahut plays Santoro in the Newport final tonight which should be an attractive match between two stylish players - will be streaming live on Betfair. They've shared 2 indoor hardcourt games in 2005 that have both gone the distance. Mahut is still searching for his first ATP win while Santoro's main success has been in doubles (only 4 ATP titles and the alst one in 2002). Santoro likes the big servers where he can use their pace to work tricky slice and spin - he has easily disposed of Moodie and Dancevic here already.?Mahut has big serve but also a very much more varied game that I think will be too much for Santoro. At the prices though (1.49 Mahut) I'll be leaveing alone. Will be a tie break in this and Santoro probably good enough to win at least a set. No bet unless you're desperate.