Wimbledon men's event 25 June - 8 July

[Wittmann 44]

Super days tennis yesterday. The Bagy-Djokovic match was as entertaining a game as I've seen in a long time. Sorry for the big Cypriot to lose after his gutsy comeback. Tennis needs guys like him.

Big question is how much yesterdays epics took out of Djokoviic and Gasquet. Djokovic's game went to 5 hours odd and after a similarly tough encounter with Hewitt the previous day he has now played almost 10 hours in 2 days. Under normal circumstances I'd be laying Nadal @ his current price of 1.33 all day. These aren't normal however and I can see the mileage ctaching up with Djokovic. Nadal has been in control of him in the H to H (4-1) and Nadal is a career 32-6 in SF (4-0 in Slams). Virgin territory for the young Serb. Against a pumped up Nadal I don't think the patient game he plays will be a good match up. Nadal doesn't make many mistakes and he punishes the safe returns. Nadal with a tb or two.

I'm swerving the straight result on Nadal and going fora correct score double with Venus Williams.


Williams 2,0 Nadal 3-0 3 Units Boylesports @ 4.8
Williams 2,0 Nadal 3-1 2 Units Bet 365 @ 5.88

[edtkh]

double post...mod, feel free to delete this

[edtkh]

It's a shame Roddick blew it from being 2 sets up, but credit to Gasquet for hanging on - that said, the biggest winner from that drawn-out 5-settler has got to be Federer...


10pts Williams -4.5 Games-Federer -6.5 Games (3.15 @ Ladbrokes)
10pts Williams -4.5 Games-Nadal -4.5 Games (3.15 @ Ladbrokes)
10pts Federer -4.5 Games-Nadal -4.5 Games (3.35 @ Ladbrokes)
50pts Williams-Federer-Nadal (1.66 @ Ladbrokes)

Bartoli must have surprised a few people with her gung-ho comeback after her virtual demise in the first set. That said, I think it's easy to overlook the fact much of her cause was helped massively by Henin's terribly inconsistent play (it was rather uncharacteristic of the Belgian to chalk up that many double faults, unforced errors and in general, just making the wrong shots at the wrong time). It's no coincidence 7 of the last 8 (including this year's) women's finals have featured at least one of the two Williams in them - quite simply, the Williams sisters have got a game that is tailored made for grass with their pounding groundstrokes (incredibly reliable and not error-prone like Sharapova's) and sublime movement and anticipation of the ball on this slick, hard-hitting surface.
Bartoli, at her best, would still struggle to contain the Williams' brand of tennis as it would be almost unimaginable to envisage Venus (or even Serena for that matter since the sisters play a very similar brand of tennis) commit the sort of mistakes at the alarming rate Henin did yesterday (I thought Venus' performances against Morigami and Kudryavtseva were nowhere as error-prone as Henin's against Bartoli even if they ran her close). Throw in the gulf in experience at this level (we don't need to be reminded how Dementieva, Ivanovic and a couple of others choked in their maiden Grand Slam final so woefully you could be forgiven for thinking you were at a circus, do we? ), and it's hard to see past Venus getting the job done in straight sets.

Personally, I'd hoped for Henin to be here as that would have meant, in all probability, Venus starting as the underdog. That said, with Bartoli being her opponent, I'd still fancy Williams to clear the handicap at a push.


If anyone needed any living proof as to how mental toughness sometimes supercedes sheer ability in tennis, Nadal's a living testament to that - at least, that's the case on grass. On the basis of that alone (and his seemingly never-tiring stamina), it's hard to see past Nadal in this one and I believe he'd walk this one quite comfortably and should take this in straight sets. With that in mind, the -4.5 game handicap shouldn't prove too much of a problem as Djokovic, while having battled heroically to see off Hewitt, Kiefer and Baghdatis did reveal chinks in his armour which I would expect Nadal to exploit fully - for a start, Djokovic has a terrible knack of dropping his guard and leaving himself vulnerable from time to time which I believe Nadal to be capable of fully exploiting, unlike his 3 previous opponents.


Knowing how close he is to his 5th Wimbledon and how little time he has to prepare for tomorrow's final, I doubt Federer will want to waste much time in the semis (although it's not like he could ill-afford to ) - and that's a key reason I think Federer is worth backing on the games handicap. Bottomline is, when he needs to get the job done in double-quick time, Federer very often delivers (looking at how Federer masterfully destroyed Safin in their clash in view of the match being carried over to the following day should darkness fall and contrasting that with his more relaxed approach against Ferrero, it's not hard to work out Federer's psyche). Throw in the fact Gasquet is coming into this match on the back of a drawn-out 5-setter and it'd only serve to compound matters further for the Frenchman.


Cheers & Good Luck!

Starting Bank : 100.00pts
Current Bank : 77.20pts
Profit/Loss : -22.80pts

[Zozo the Duke]

R. Federer – R. Nadal

Federer lost only one set so far on this Wimbledon and, in my opinion, mainly because he underestimated Fererro. Today he trashed Gasquet very fast with 3:0 showing who the king of the grass is.

Nadal had some huge troubles in previous rounds. He leaded 2:0 against Soderling but at the end he managed to beat him in the fifth set. In the next round, he was down 2:0 from Youzhny and when everyone was thinking that his journey will come to an end, Youzhny got injured and Nadal fought back and trashed him in the next three sets. His progress on grass is evident, but still he is not playing great tennis on this surface.

What I could see in previous final of these two players? Federer have fear when he is playing against Nadal, he was scared at Roland Garros, but today he is on home court, he is on Wimbledon, the place that he won last four years. He has amazing unbeaten run on grass and I find very hard to see Nadal giving a hard time to him today. Although Nadal beat him 8 times in their 12 matches, I think that this is the time the best player in the world to show who is who on the tennis courts. I think that Federer will give his maximum effort in order to trash Nadal and to revenge for his loss on Roland Garros. Although everyone thinks that Nadal will take at least one set, I believe that Federer knows his surface very well, and the factor revenge will have great part of this match. I think that is very possible to see him playing at his best, not giving a single set to his opponent.

Last year’s final at Wimbledon, Federer won with 3:1 and I know that since then, Nadal improved a lot on grass, but Federer knows how to handle pressure and my choise for today’s final will be 3:0 for the King of grass.

Pick: R. Federer to win 3:0; Odds: 2.30; Bookamker: UniBet; Stake: 2 Units

[Martens]

i disagree here, happened to watch plenty of games, this is my view :

pitch in all courts is in really bad condition, same in central court, in baseline areas looks like clay! surface than grass! you have to count that players hit the ball at baseline mostly, the bouncing is much more slow than expected, because there isnt any grass at all!

personally i watched many games that players used clay tactics, Nadal is aware of it, he is very clever guy, he noticed that court is rather on him than on federer

last year, nadal said before the final that "no no, i can not win him, i know my limits"

now he says " i go there beleiving in win"

i am on nadal to win, no money of course, hopefully i will watch one set, and then is formula1, no chance for tennis to win against formula1 in terms of interest!


Nadal to win the final, have a nice day all!

[Rissso]

Federer´s winning streak in Wimbledon will end some day. But not today. Although he won here 4 times and he is not motivated like 4 years ago. I don´t expect any wonder, Federer will be reigning one more year at least.

[Rissso]

Come on, wake up, Roger!

[Rissso]

Marvelous

[bulit]

And Wimbledon is over. Same like last year but this time I enjoy watching finals. 5 sets after 6 years and Federer showed that he is the best player on grass. Tommorow we start with new tournaments so good luck everybody.
For me the best court is hard court so I hope that this season on hard courts will be good

[Wittmann 44]

Shortened Wimbldon but with Williams win yesterday and a double my usual max stakes bet on her it made a nicely profitable few days for me.

Great men’s final today and a highly enjoyable women’s match yesterday with Bartoli doing a lot better than I thought she would. The day topped off nicely with Murray and Jankovic showing that nice guys don’t finish last.

Very unlucky with Nadal Martens. If Nadal had taken any of the 4 break points in the final set I couldn’t have seen Federer coming back. Your logic was very sound and I agree that the grass is definitely playing a lot closer to clay especially in the second week. With Nadal improving all the time and Federer with less room to improve you’d have to figure that Nadal’s time will come at Wimbeldon sooner rather than later.

2 Units Djokovic (vs Bagy) @ 1.71 +1.35 Units
Berdych 1.5 Units @ 2.36 -1.5 Units
1 Unit Gasqeut (vs Roddick) @ 3.8 +2.66 Units

Event Staked (ATP) 11.50 Units
Event Profit (ATP) +4.67 Unit

Event Staked (WTA) 18.75 Units
Event Profit (WTA) +0.05 Unit

[edtkh]

I'm glad I stayed away of the final - I can only imagine the numerous heart-in-your-mouth moments those Federer backers must have had. All in all, don't think this year's tourny has been the greatest in recent times (not helped by the fact the torrential downpours are probably the worst in the last 5 years). Nevertheless, a good Saturday has certainly turned the tide for me from a betting perspective yielding a 70.10 pts profit.

Until the US Open then...

Starting Bank : 100.00pts
Current Bank : 147.30pts
Profit/Loss : 47.30pts