17th - 24th June - Ordina Open (ATP / WTA) & Nottingham (ATP)

[Wittmann 44]

Play starts in Holland tomorrow with 2 mens games and 2 womens games . Prices should be up tomorrow.

[rcgills]

One for me for today in the women's event, I think Azarenka is maybe slightly overpriced against Chakvetadze. She's having a good season, on the brink of breaking into the top 50 in the rankings (currently 51), and has a decent junior record on grass - Wimbledon junior semi-finalist in 2005 (losing to Paszek) and 2004 (losing to Ivanovic), and winning the Wimbledon junior doubles event in both 2004 and 2005.

Chakvetadze also has a pretty good grass court record, but I'm not sure she should be quite such a big favourite here.

Lay Chakvetadze @ 1.23, liability 1pt

[Wittmann 44]

One for me in the men's event.

Serra-Haase

Serra made the SF last year so will be defending a lot of points. Serra beat big serving Delic in Halle before exiting to Ginepri in the next round. Haase is the local wildcard who has been mainly plying his trade in the lower leagues. Went out in Halle in the 2nd qualifying round. His big career scalp has probably been beating big Ivo Karlovic (albeir on clay) but on grass his record mainly on the juniors is so so. Serra needs a good run here as with the points from last year coming up he could drop up to 20 places. I think he has the experience and the motivation to win this one.

1.5 Units Serra @ 1.53

[Wittmann 44]

Serra wins first set and then loses next two

Great start (again)

Today Staked 1.50 Units
Event Loss -1.50 Units

[rcgills]

Azarenka started off well, took the first set 7-5, but her serve seemed to fall apart a bit after that, lost the next 2 sets.

[Martens]

Sluiter to beat udomchoke @1.58

BANKER to my eyes, but i have my own criteria to pick somebody, so i dont addvice anybody to follow, sluiter is very good grass player playing in a "friendly" atmosphere.....

few words about today halle :

Berdych was really amazing fantastic player,truly, i tip my hut to him, he is ready for the BIG, to win against federer at ANY time,he defended extremely well the two set points of bagh,he didnt allow bagh to be in the game,absolutely perfect game by the czech!

as for Bagh, he urgently needs to improve his first serve percentage, actually he lost the game because of this factor,

and i advice him to withdraw from the ordina, whats the reason to be in risks of injuries and fatigue a week BEFORE the wimbledon????

have a nice evening all. cya

[Wittmann 44]

From Orinda

Tipsarevic-Gicquel

Gicquel after an up close and personal meeting between his testicles and a 208km per hour Becker serve last week ended up retiring the following match with stomach cramps. He’ll be hopeful of avoiding a recurrence today but other than avoiding a slap in the nuts I don’t think he will have much joy here. The Frenchman’s serve is his big weapon but Tipsarevic can cope with the big servers as he showed when narrowly going out to Gozalez (against whom he had 2 match points) in Halle. The Serb is the more consistent player and close to 1.80 is a nice looking price. Prior to beating Becker and Nalbandian last week Gicquel had achieved absolutely nothing on grass.

1.5 Units Tipsarevic @ 1.80

Santoro-Vliegen

Santoro beat Vliegen at this event last year and I think there will be more of the same again. Vliegen didn’t create a single bp in his match against Nieminen and Santoro likes playing the big servers. Santoro has a nicely mixed game fully of crafty little doubles shots on grass and his better court craft should see him through. Vliegen has lost to other serve and volleys like Mahut in the past as well.

1.25 Units Santoro @ 1.68

Chela-Benneteau

Chela has won 2 games on grass in his entire career. He’s here I think to pick up a cheque. Benneteau is not in good form but I think he’ll have much more interest here.

1 Unit Benneteau @ any price over Evens

In Nottingham

Prices yet to stabilise. The only game I will have a possible interest in tomorrow is Bogdabovich to beat Garcia Lopez providing I can get over 1.55.

[rcgills]

Not a great deal that really takes my fancy at first glance today. Just gone for a couple of underdog bets where I think their price is too big.

Garcia Lopez to beat Bogdanovic @ 2.96 1.5pts

Going to go against Wittmann here. Garcia Lopez not got a great grass court record, just 4-5 for his career, but on grass he's beaten Ferrer, and his defeats including taking Djokovic to 5 sets and taking Philipoussis to 2 tie-breaks. Bogdanovic had a pretty good week last week at Queens, taking a set off Roddick, but I still wouldn't make him a 1.5 favourite for this one.

Lay Daniilidou v Bremond @ 1.5, liability 1pt

Bremond having a pretty poor year so far, but she's a capable grass court player, as shown by her 11-5 career record at Wimbledon, including coming through the qualifiers last year to make the QF. No way Daniilidou should be such a short price IMO.

[Wittmann 44]

I left Bogdanovic in the end RC – like you say far too short.

Just one from Nottingham

Wawrinka-Karlovic

Speculative play on Wawrinka here. He has beaten Ivo in both meetings including a 5 set epic in Wimbeldon in 2006 that was priced roughly the same as today. Ivo is Roddick without the forehand – very reliant on the big serve for cheap points. If you can get the serve back then you’ll have a good chance of beating him. Easier said than done admittedly as he is number 2 in the ATP aces served table but Wawrinka has done it before so is worth a nibble to do it again.

0.75 Units Wawrinka @ 3.75

[Wittmann 44]

From Ordina

Pennetta-Knapp

An all Italian match. Pennetta will be vulnerable on her first match on grass of the season but she has decent pedigree on the surface with a 4th round appearance in Wimbeldon in 2005 and 2006. Signs of a recovery were evident in SF run in Barcelona where she squandered a 3rd set lead to eventual winner Shuagnessy. Knapp has the warm up but I’m going with her older compatriot.

2 Units Pennetta @ 1.78

Schiavone-Mirza

This looks a 50:50 to me. Mirza on the comeback trail after injury badly bottled her game against Santangelo last week when serving for the game and with 3 match points. They both have very similar records on grass although Schiavone leads the H to H 1-0 (hardcourt). Value with the dog here.

1.25 Units Schiavone @ 2.26

Dulko-Kraijeck

Kraijeck the defending champion had a tame exit in Birmingham last week to Fedak – her service game which she is quite reliant on fell apart badly. She is having a very poor 2007 – W11 L16 for the year. This is Dulko’s first game of the year on grass but she has some form here, reaching the SF in 2005. She has also made Wimbledon 3rd round twice (one more than Krijeck) and is having a much better 2007 than the Dtchwoman (winner in Budapest and finalist in Pattaya this year). I’d make Kraijeck much longer here.

Lay Kraijeck @ 1.35 (0.75 Units Risked)
0.25 Units Kraijeck @ 4.6

[edtkh]

I wouldn't normally touch tournies a week before a Grand Slam, but there're a few opportunities too good to be missed IMO.

20pts Simon-Gasquet (2.40 @ Ladbrokes)

Gasquet to see off Spadea should be pretty straight-forward given Gasquet's pedigree on grass and how well he did here last year.

Simon is massively overpriced to beat Pavel IMO - it's simply ridiculous an out-of-sorts Romanian who has never had much of a pedigree on anything outside clay (and I'm not saying he's great on clay) should start this as a slight favourite. This is clearly one of those matches where stats should go out of the window (both have very little pedigree on grass to speak about, although Simon's career has just begun while the sun's setting on Pavel's). From what I've seen of Simon over the years, he'll just prove too strong and physically demanding for Pavel and I personally wouldn't have Simon at anything above 1.66, much less evens.


10pts Bogdanovic-Gasquet (1.80 @ Ladbrokes)

Garcia-Lopez is way too inconsistent and unpredictable for my liking - at best, he'd have trouble matching Bogdanovic on grass; at worst, Bogdanovic would steamroll his way in this one.

Bogdanovic may not be of any use in other tournies on the ATP calendar, but his performances in grasscourt tournies in the fortnight leading up to Wimbledon have always been impressive over the last 2-3 years. On the back of what I saw at Queen's and how close he pushed Roddick (he even had a matchpoint at one point), it's hard to see the inconsistent Spaniard even running him close if he turns up at 60%.

Cheers & Good Luck!

[rcgills]

Gasquet's straight sets defeat to the world number 304 Qureshi at Halle last week was enough to put me off him.

Was almost tempted by Simon myself, but his lack of grass court pedigree and Pavel's reasonable showing at Halle last week put me off that one in the end. Good luck though.

[Martens]

Sluiter is already out ( private circumstances) so my money goes to :

Karlovic @1.45

Bogdanovic @1.48

both very good options near to banker level

probable upset : Spadea to beat defending champion Gasquet,the french is in terrible shape, so so boring to watch him, one dimensional player with a boring backhand which is considered as his main weapon,nothing special to my eyes, spadea might punish him, no money involved, is just an idea, i wouldnt touch such a game


have a nice afternoon

[Tricky]

I am going to the tennis in Nottingham ("rainham") tomorrow. I am not a tennis expert so thanks for the tips given out so far. Bogdanovic has his work cut out as he is currently one set down.

See the draw/schedule of play at: Home - nottingham.lta.org.uk

Tim Henman is due on centre court at around 1.30pm.

[Hippy Dave]

Tempted by Baker (2/1) over Del Potro, whose win over a poor ToJo is being overrated.

Gimelstob (10/11) should beat a poor grass courter in Delic.