In running gold !!

[Wittmann 44]

I’ve always been convinced that the way to make money betting tennis is in running. There are so many swings and roundabouts in the game that if you know the players and how they tend to perform under pressure that you can sniff out some real value bets. Todays game between Henman and Cilic was a classic example where some serious money could have been made if you were bold and aggressive. Henman opened at 1.25 but drifted during the day to 1.32 at the start of play. I backed him at 1.32 (large stakes) and had him in a smaller double with Grosjean who had already won this morning.

After a very scrappy first set which Hemman lost in a tiebreak He was trading close to 4s at the start of the first set. There wasn’t much point in me panicking given that there was little I could do to extricate my stake. Cilic was making so many errors I felt that Henman would come back into it. He did – in an equally error ridden second set he broke twice to win it 6-2. At the start of the third set he was trading at 1.23. At this stage the momentum was with him but given what had preceeded it I felt there was still every chance for Cilic to get back into it especially as he was serving well still.

Henmen broke straight off and with Cilic serving at 4-2 he went to his lowest level – 1.06. At this stage I felt this was a crazy price. I laid off my double and my single to get my money back and a bit more. I was at this stage getting over 16/1 on Cilic to claw back a single break of serve. He held serve confortably and after that it fell apart from a rapidly tiring Henman as he lost his service game, then failed to press Cilic on his serve. The final ignominy was to lose his serve a second time and lose the game 7-6, 2-6, 6-4.

An example of my betting today with units will give an idea of how much could have been won with a bit more trust in my judgement.

Double 2 Units Grosjean/ Henman @ 1.47 – Profit 0.94 Units
Single Henman 5 Units @ 1.32 – Profit 1.52 Units

With Henman 4-2 up I laid him at 1.06 (0.4 units Risked)

The scenario now was

Henman Wins – Total Profit 1.96 Units
Henman Loses – Total Profit 0.55 Units

So all in all not bad. What gets interesting however if I had decided to risk my entire potential profit on Henman by laying that amount – i.e risk the double and single profit of 2.46 Units (0.94 + 1.52 Units). If Henman wins I get nothing – if Henman loses however I am effectively backing Cilic at over 16 one to the tune of 2.46 Units.

Henman Wins – Total Profit 0.00 Units
Henman Loses – Total Profit 41.28 Units

Every game will not pan out like this but in a game as poor and scrappy as this one to have a player trading at 1.06 when there is only a single break in it seemed (and indeed was) crazy. A pity I did not have more balls here.

I do use in running but generally only if I have backed a big priced player who I think might fade. This is the opposite scenario and one that I might be tempted to try in the near future.

I’ll post some in running plays on this thread during the week an see what falls out of the mix.

[Wittmann 44]

Have laid Hanchova at 1.09 against Govortosova (1 Unit)

Gortosova has warmed up here with 3 qualifying games. First outing for Hantchova. She lost on her firs outing here on both her last two appearances (admittedly against better opposition than now) but 1.09 looks plenty short.

Have laid to back her if the price drifts

[Wittmann 44]

Govortosva broke Hantchova first in this game , held serve and went on to have 3 bps in Hantchova’s second service game. At this stage Hantchova had drifted to 1.27. I didn’t lay my bet off but if I had:

9.25 Units on Hantchova @ 1.27

Hantchova Wins +1.31
Govortsova Wins +1.37

Not the best of examples I suppose as if Hanchova wins you would have effectively staked 10.15 Units to win 1.31 which is effectively odds of 1.13. It is however completely risk free.

[Wittmann 44]

Another one just now.

Backed Mirza at 2.32 this morning against Santangelo (medium stakes).

She had three match points in the deciding third and traded at 1.01-1.02 for all of them. This was a very tight game and she had choked with a number of double faults at various stages during the game prior to this.

She double faulted with the first match point. I tried to lay her at 1.02 on the second blown match (i.e backing Santangelo at 50/1). I put down 25% of my potential profit – (i.e approximately 0.40 units) – if matched I would have netted a cool 20 points profit if Santangelo won (which she went on to do). Unfortunately there were no biters by the time she served for the final match point and was broken. There was nearly 10,000 Pounds matched at 1.01 – some very sick heads right now – I was a mouseclick away from some serious money .