Men and Womens Final

[Beanie]

Current Betfair Odds:

Justine Henin 1.24
Ana Ivanovic 5.10

I'm not one for match betting really, but my outright betting has me already in fairly heavily on Ivanovic here, decent loss on Henin, so I could do with some views on where the value currently lies.

I'm not really interested in laying off for profit just for profits sake - I'd much rather decide where the value lies and either lay off based on that or even back Ivanovic again, so all opinions appreciated

[Beanie]

Current Betfair Odds:

Rafa Nadal 1.48
Roger Federer 3.05

Likewise to the women's final I dislike the match betting but am in fairly heavily on it anyway as a result of the outrights(in this case i'm on Nadal, fairly big -ve on Fed.)

Where's that value folks so I can load up further or lay off? Grazie

[Wittmann 44]

I merged the two threads together Beanie if thats ok as I know a good few people will be doing a men and women's double.

My take on the games:

I took Nadal at 1.61 large stakes before the semis. I think that was massive value but I still think there is value at 1.48. I wouldn't take too much notice of Fed's recent win in Hamburg. Nadal was plainly tired, keeping the record going was probably on his mind and the court was playing very slow and heavy which took some of the edge of Nadal's groundstrokes. In a 5 setter on clay I simply cannot see Nadal losing this. Federer was dire against Davdenko. He should have lost it. Nadal was patchy against Djokovic but at the same time to my mind never looked in danger and when he had to step it up he did. Nadal owns Fed on clay and Federer has shown in the past that he has found it very difficult to shake those few players that have some edge on him - Canas and even Henman for a time fitted into this slot. Nadal's intensity will be too much here I think. Fed's good enough to get a set but even that I'm not sure about.


Nadal

I don't give Ivanovic any hope versus Henin. I think 1.25 should be closer 1.15 to be honest. Without taking away from the Serb's achievements she beat Sharapova who's both poor on clay and not in the best of form and the mentally unstable Kuznetsova who still managed a set. Ivanovic's movement isn't even as good as Jankovic's and Henin had her scampering like a demented rabbit. Ivanovic's serve if it holds up will keep her in it but Henin wins the big points and has the experience of 10 grand Slams behind her.

I don' ever bet as low as 1.25 but I do think its a great price.

Henin

[Beanie]

Merge is a-ok by me Wittmann and thanks for the opinions. I've only watched some of the mens champs and none of the womens, but I like ur shout on Nadal and will prob end up sticking a little more on. Will see what the consensus is on Henin but if its all the same way might end up cheering her on instead. Much to ponder.

[rcgills]

Couple of winners yesterday brings my deficit back into single figures

Men
Staked: 54.1pts
Returned: 41.76pts
P/L: -12.34pts

Women
Staked: 33.4pts
Returned: 37.51pts
P/L: +4.11pts

Overall: -8.23pts

I'm going to have to go against Wittmann on today's final. I don't think Ivanovic has been given anywhere near enough credit for her run to the final. Kuznetsova may occasionally be mentally unstable, but she's a fine clay court player, and Ivanovic, barring a blip in the 2nd set, was vastly superior. Then Sharapova, OK she's no clay court player, but you can only beat what's in front of you. Sharapova is still the world no. 2 and made the semi-final. Ivanovic didn't just beat her, she absolutely wiped the floor with her.

Henin was impressive against Jankovic, but I think nerves got the better of Jankovic. That's something that I've not really seen any sign of from Ivanovic so far. Whether the nerves will come now with her first Grand Slam final, I don't know, but I reckon the value is with Ivanovic today. Already have an ill-judged 1.5pts on her immediately after her SF before Henin had seen off Jankovic, @ 3.9, but I've topped up now at a better price.

Ivanovic @ 3.9 (earlier bet) 1.5pts
Lay Henin @ 1.23 (top-up bet), liability 1pt

[edtkh]

20pts Henin to break first (1.50 @ Ladbrokes)
21pts UNDER 22.5 Games (1.66 @ Ladbrokes)
54.40pts Henin to beat Ivanovic (1.21 @ Betfair)

Sharapova played like a cunt in the semis. While I'm not taking anything away from Ivanovic in that match, I don't think Sharapova turned up in the semis at all and the semis is by no means indicative of Ivanovic's merits against Henin. Prior to playing Serena Williams, I'd mentioned I can't see the winner coming beyond the Henin-Williams tie and I still haven't seen anything to change my mind. If anything, I think many have overlooked how a less-than-fully-fit Kuznetsova troubled Ivanovic in the immediate aftermath of the Serb's euphoric triumph over Sharapova. In essence, I haven't seen anything to be remotely convinced Ivanovic will pose enough problems for the Belgian.

Henin's experience and pedigree here is well-established and beyond question. While Ivanovic's strength very much lies in her first serves, she'll be up against an opponent on this surface she has never previously encountered en route to the final - Henin's return will certainly give the Serb something to think about and if Henin remains focused, this should prove to be no more than a walk in the park.

Similarly, So long as Henin takes this one in straight sets with a break in each set (and assuming she doesn't take this 7-5, 7-5 ), the under 22.5 games market certainly looks tasty IMO.

Cheers & Good Luck!

Starting Bank : 100.00pts
Current Bank : 95.40 pts
Profit/Loss : -4.60 pts

[rcgills]

Oh well, looks like I'm on my own on this one then GL all.

[asto85]

I took the 4/6 with Ladbrokes yesterday as I suspected it wouldnt stay.
Could in theory get egg on face here but I think anyone betting against Justin is one soon to be parted with his money!

[rcgills]

Hmm, Justin, eh? No wonder "she" wins so much, a bloke playing in the women's game

[Kiko]

Have laid the favourite again, Henin 2-0 @ 1.62

[Kiko]

Im beginning to think im cursed this tournament.

Break straight off and then 40-0 next game and she loses it with the final point a fluke

Games started off quite well though. Could be a good game

[Kiko]

Not a good final at all so far is it?

Henin is dominating Ivanovic. Ivanovic is making so many errors that arent helping her cause to be honest.

[Kiko]

Well its down to the mens final to save Roland Garros. I really think this has been one of the most boring Grand Slams i can remember....Would anyone agree or am i being a bit harsh?

Nadals been the most impressive of the two for me but that win in Hamburg for Federer is massive now imo as he knows he has the beating of him.

Federers price at 3.00+ is too tempting for me i think and worth it. Im hoping for a great final more than anything to be honest. 5 setter would be brilliant.

[rcgills]

Well there was the reason I was on my own on that one Ivanovic's head dropped when she threw away the 40-0 on serve in the second game, and from there on there was only really one winner.

Well done to those on Henin anyway

And on a separate note, never have liked the Roland Garros crowd, and they yet again proved themselves to be the biggest twats on the tennis circuit today, booing Ivanovic when she over-ruled a line judge and gave the point to Henin (in the final game of the match). Whether it was fair play or simply wanting to get the hell out of there, who knows, but you can't boo someone for saying a ball was in when it's going to cost her the point. If they wanted to see more tennis, maybe they should try turning up for the matches on time, as I've lost count of the number of times I've seen matches held up this past fortnight as the players wait for latecomers to take their seats.

Men
Staked: 54.1pts
Returned: 41.76pts
P/L: -12.34pts

Women
Staked: 35.9pts
Returned: 37.51pts
P/L: +1.61pts

Overall: -10.73pts

[Kiko]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Well there was the reason I was on my own on that one Ivanovic's head dropped when she threw away the 40-0 on serve in the second game, and from there on there was only really one winner.

Well done to those on Henin anyway

And on a separate note, never have liked the Roland Garros crowd, and they yet again proved themselves to be the biggest twats on the tennis circuit today, booing Ivanovic when she over-ruled a line judge and gave the point to Henin (in the final game of the match). Whether it was fair play or simply wanting to get the hell out of there, who knows, but you can't boo someone for saying a ball was in when it's going to cost her the point. If they wanted to see more tennis, maybe they should try turning up for the matches on time, as I've lost count of the number of times I've seen matches held up this past fortnight as the players wait for latecomers to take their seats.

Men
Staked: 54.1pts
Returned: 41.76pts
P/L: -12.34pts

Women
Staked: 35.9pts
Returned: 37.51pts
P/L: +1.61pts

Overall: -10.73pts

Agreed.

Ive always had a slight dislike to the French from my trips over there as they have a certain, well a large amount, of arrogance as they have displayed here.

Twats