French Open - 3rd Round On Selections Here

[Wittmann 44]

Just taken

5 Points Nadal to win French Open @ 1.61

Fed is wretched. Forehand has collapsed. If he makes it through this I can’t see Nadal being a whole lot more than 1.45 for the final. If he doesn’t make it Davydenko might be more competitive but Nadal will be far shorter than 1.45 – probably around 1.18 (if even).

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

God what a sickener of a losing bet that was

First set he had 15 or more break points and after breaking 1st serve Davy couldnt do it again.

Then we had the tie break in 2nd he couldnt win and then the 3rd set 5-2 up and he still cant do it. Useless bastard.

Serving for a set twice and he bottles it. Unbelievable.

Now i know why WBX isnt that good an exchange just yet as i couldnt even lay the bet off

[rcgills]

Well Davydenko really should've made that even closer than it actually was. A break up in each set, was serving for the 2nd and 3rd sets, and missed 4 set points in the 3rd. Still, 7-5 7-6 7-6 is more than enough to clear the 35.5 games I needed.

Now to see whether I can actually string two winning bets together for a change.

Nadal v Djokovic under 33.5 games @ 1.833 2pts. Think Nadal will win this in straight sets, and as long as we don't go to any tie-breaks, I reckon it should stay under 33.5 games

[rcgills]

Unlucky there Kiko, didn't see all of the match, and in the final set I stopped watching once Davydenko got to 5-2 up as I knew that guaranteed my bet was in, only came back to watch again in the tie break, but I'm assuming Davydenko must've choked pretty badly in that final set

[Wittmann 44]

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God what a sickener of a losing bet that was 


Terrible , terrible by Davydenko. Fed was there for the taking. Knew Davydenko wouldn’t do it when he was 4-2 up in the first and Fed serving 0-40 down and he couldn’t convert any of the three break points he had or the subsequent one he got. Bottled both tie-breaks in spectacular fashion as well.

Cannot see Federer getting a look in if he plays like that against (presumably) Nadal in the final.

Well done RC with getting the overs in 3 !! sets.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

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God what a sickener of a losing bet that was 


Terrible , terrible by Davydenko. Fed was there for the taking. Knew Davydenko wouldn’t do it when he was 4-2 up in the first and Fed serving 0-40 down and he couldn’t convert any of the three break points he had or the subsequent one he got. Bottled both tie-breaks in spectacular fashion as well.

Cannot see Federer getting a look in if he plays like that against (presumably) Nadal in the final.

Well done RC with getting the overs in 3 !! sets.

Yeah totally..

Have to give credit where credit is due to Fed. When he NEEDED the big serves he delivered them, and then some.

That must have mentally messed up Davy now for future games with Fed....thats if he wasnt already

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

This really isn't my day. Layed Nadal 3-0 here.

0-40 in second set and Djokovic doesnt win the set, I should give up

[Wittmann 44]

There’s a small bit of value in the ladies doubles starting soon.

Two unfancied pairs Srebotnik/Sugiyana and Molik/Santangelo meet. Both have less than 15 games together and neither have even won a tour event together. I’m inclined to side with Molik/Santaangelo as Srebotnik has been playing mixed doubles and lost the final today (surprisingly apparently). Molik and Santangelo have ground out some 3 set wins and if it goes to three (even in the less mobile doubles) Srebotnkik might suffer.

Lay Srebotnik and Sugiyama @ 1.66 (1 Unit Risked)

This starts after the Nadal game

[rcgills]

Good grief, Nadal's making hard work of closing out sets here. 5-2 up with 2 breaks and serving for the first set, gets broken back twice before taking control again and winning it 7-5. Then in the second set, 5-4 up and serving, 40-0 and 3 set points, loses the next 4 in a row, before fighting back to hold

Still, a 6-4 or better for Nadal in this set will bring in the under 33.5

[Wittmann 44]

Good stuff there with the 2 winning overs and unders RCgills. Two disappointing if profitable SFs for most people I’d say.

Finishing well here with 2 wins from 3 matches today and a nice odds against shout on the doubles which was priced all wrong. 5 Units left o/s on Nadal at 1.61. If that comes in I will be in profit on both the mens and womens to a nice bit. Lose and I’ll have a small overall loss so fingers crossed. No bets on the final but might have a bet on the men’s doubles final when the price stabilizes.

0.5 Units 1st set Federer 6-4 @ 6/1 -0.5 Units
0.5 Units 1st set Federer 6-3 @ 6/1 – 0.5 Units
Nadal 3-0 1.75 Units @ 1.88 (Betfair) +1.46 Units

Staked today 2.75 Units
Profit today +0.46 Units
Staked Event 41.00 Units.
Loss Event -1.77 Units

Lay Srebotnik and Sugiyama @ 1.66 (1 Unit Risked) +1.44 Units

Staked today 1.00 Units
Profit today +1.44 Units
Staked Event 35.00 Units
Profit Event +3.72 Units

[Wittmann 44]

There’s some decebnt value in the men’s doubles where Nestor/Knowles take on surprise finalist Dlouhy and Vizer

This is what I said about Nestor/Knowles prior to backing them in the SFs

"In the men's doubles tomorrow veteran pairing of Knowles and Nestor look value to see of Bhupati and Stepanek. K & N have been a doubles pairing since 2003 and have racked up 20 titles in that time including 7 on clay. They've a sole Slam in the US to their names but with the top two seedings of Bjokrmann/Mirnyi and the Bryan twins out they will never get a better chance to win at Roland Garros - prior to this they were W4 L15 against the Bryans. En route to the semis they have yet to drop a set although the only real tests were against Pavel/Waske in the 3rd and Kohlmann/Schuettler in the QF. They have plenty of Slam experience although I would think that clay is their weakest surface."

Dlohu and Vizner pulled off 2 major shocks in a row by beating the Bryan twins in the QF and the very experienced pair of Santoro/Zimonic in the semis. They are definitely clay specialists and in their sole meeting (on clay) back in Barcelona last year it took Nestor and Knowles 3 sets to see them off.

With their experience and record behind them Nestor and Knowles are well deserved favorites. They are no way 1.40 shouts. 1.66 would be a fair price in my view so this is big big value. I’ve covered with a stake on 3 sets.

Lay Nestor / Knowles@ 1.4 (Risk 0.75 Units)
0.25 Units Nestor Knowles to win 2-1 @ 4.0

[Wittmann 44]

Nadal didn't let me down when it counted so ended up in profit on both the mens and the womens events in the end. Nopt as good as the last few weeks but better than the bank rate of interest so I won't complain too much.

Thanks for all the input from everyone. Roll on the grass.


Lay Nestor / Knowles@ 1.4 (Risk 0.75 Units) -0.75 Units
0.25 Units Nestor Knowles to win 2-1 @ 4.0 +0.71 Units
5 Points Nadal to win French Open @ 1.61 +2.90 Units

ATP

Staked Event 47.00 Units.
ProfitEvent +1.09 Units

WTA

Staked Event 35.00 Units
Profit Event +3.72 Units

Total

Staked Event 82 Units
Profit Event +4.81 Units
Yield +5.87%

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Roll on the grass.

I'd rather not. Grass stains are very difficult to get out, you know.

Sorry