Tennis 21st - 27th (ATP Austria, WTA Istanbul and Strasbourg)

[Wittmann 44]

ATP Portschach Austria (Clay)
http://www.atppoertschach.info/bracket/images/tennisplaetze_sm.jpg

Draw
http://www.atptennis.com/en/common/T...07/306/mds.pdf


WTA Strasbourg (Clay)
http://www.is2007.com/index-3.html

WTA Istanbul (Clay)
http://www.istanbulcup.com/ENG_Default.aspx

++++++++++++++++++++

Last clay events before Roland Garros. Thoughts later. Will be at a work bonding exercise Tuesday to Thursday so offline while senior management spout crap unfortunately

[bulit]

What to play on this tournaments?
Everybody saving themselfs for French Open and I don't want to watch in beans who will lose or give up before French Open.
NO BET until thursday

[Wittmann 44]

Everybody saving themselfs for French Open and I don't want to watch in beans who will lose or give up before French Open.

You're intent on keeping your money in your pocket until Roland Garros aren't you ?

I'd definitely keep stakes to a minimum here as there will be certain players not giving it their all having one eye on the French Open. In the last two years only 2 seeds have even made the QF (Davydenko top seeded both years as this year). Davydenko's 4 year record is pretty astonishing WON, WON QF Final. I think the guy owes Russian mafia money or something he plays so much tennis. He will be giving it his all but his price is crazy short.

Another factor worth considering is that this is thefirst time the main Austrian event was played here (usually it is in St.Polten) so prior form is not very useful.

I think for the reasons above there might be a bit of value in a home player or one who has played qualifiers.

Melzer is the top ranked Austrian here. He made final (St.Polten) 2005 , QF last year and SF in 2004.

I also like the look of Starace. Having a very good year by his standards and came through qualifying here (although admitteddly not very impressively). In a very weak quarter - one seed Hrbaty is out already and Miryni is very poor on clay.

Montanes having a decent year too. This is the type of small tournament he usually does ok in.

Rather than punting on any of the big guns a few fun e/w punts on the three above the shout.

0.25 Units e/w Montanes 50/1
0.25 Units e/w Starace - no price up yet (take anything over 20/1)
1 Unit e/w Melzer 16/1

All above are Stan James. Only themselves and Bet 365 have prices up. Wait until tomorrow before putting money down as there might be some better prices up.

[engineer]

Istanbul, 14:30 CET:
Tzvetana Pironkova v Olga Govortsova, no odds yet, but I expect 2.50 at least for Govortsova.
Pironkova is ranked 95, and her opponent is 159 at WTA, but this year Pironkova just can't win a single game. Maybe, one day she'll do so, but today I'm betting against her, one more time. She's deffinitely not a claycourter... I don't know much of the young Belarussian, but just can't miss that game:
Govortsova to win - 4/10 (only if I can find 2.50 or more)

[rcgills]

Three bets for me today, barring any others in-running later. Low stakes, for reasons already mentioned by Wittmann and Bulit.

Obziler to beat Rezai. Just think Rezai is slightly overpriced in this one. Not having a very good season - 3-12, as opposed to 19-9 for Obziler. Obziler 4-4 on clay, Rezai is 2-5, but to be fair Rezai has been playing stronger opponents.

Lay Rezai v Obziler @ 1.42, liability 1pt

Udomchoke to beat Lee. Two players in terrible form, neither of them much good on clay (Lee is 4-6 for the past year, Udomchoke is 2-3). Should be a thriller . Price on Udomchoke in that case looks value to me.

Udomchoke to beat Lee @ 2.9 1.5pts

Peya to beat Roddick. Very speculative one, obviously, but with the home crowd behind him, and Roddick maybe with one eye on Roland Garros, it's worth a little nibble.

Lay Roddick v Peya @ 1.15, liability 0.5pts

On the outrights, like the look of that Melzer bet, Wittmann, so have had a bit of that, 1.5pts @ 18 on Betfair. In the WTA event in Strasbourg, Hantuchova and Vaidisova have already dropped out, and with Jankovic having just won the final in Rome, it wouldn't be a surprise I guess to see her pull out either. Medina Garrigues is a past winner here, and if I can get 12 on her, I'll take it. Also Bartoli if I can get 20 on her. Don't hold out much hope of getting them matched to be honest, but I'll see how it goes

Good luck all for today.

[Wittmann 44]

Awful looking coupon today in Austria with lots of out of form / poor clay courters matched up. I’d hardly ever recommend backing a player who is W2 L8 in the last 10 but I’m tempted by the odds against on Max Miryni. Miryni is a doubles specialist these days and has a terrible singles record in 2007 but his opponent Moncourt looks to be operating on a much lower level. Miryni is at Evens on BF at the moment but might drift out a bit more.

1.5 Units Miryni @ Evens

Lee – Udomchoke looks a nightmare with two out of form hardcourters playing. Lee leads the H to H 3-2 and has the experience of a doubles match yesterday but even at odds over 2.8 hard for me to make a case for Udomchoke.

Monfils faces big serving Yank Querry but his form and fitness are very suspect. He made the SF at the Zagreb challenger but he’s defending big points from the French Open 2006 and has already dropped 30 ranking places this month so he might be vulnerable here given his attentions might be elsewhere. Querry has no clay record worth talking about however so another no bet.

There are not many more interesting looking possibilities in Turkey or Strasbourg either.

In Turkey Rezai who is 3-12 for the year goes off at 1.5 against Israeli veteran Oblizer. The Israeli has never done anything on clay however so I can’t bring myself to back even a speculative punt.

I’m going to go against you Engineer and say that the weight of money on Govortsova has made her opponent’s rising price a bit of value. Gortosova is in decent form but it is low level form and American clay form. Pirinova made the SF here in 2005 and is a player who has had difficulty in making the jump from ITF to WTA. Her opponent today is a class lower than what she has recently faced and I like her price around 1.80

1.5 Units Pirinkova @ 1.80

In Strasbourg Loit should see off the limited clay courter T.T Sun. Loit slightly off the boil at the moment but she is on home turf and has a respectable clay record. Sun has lost far more than she has won on clay and even a Loit not firing on all cylinders should have too much.

2 Units Loit @ 1.44

[asto85]

Rather fancy (control yourself Komp!) Melzer to do well on home soil and today at even money, Monfils 8/13 best I think and Ferrer to edge it with the better player -- but struggling for form Berdych.
That ol rock Hewitt seems to be losing the losing touch - obsessively - but the bookies dont want us to back him!!

[Wittmann 44]

Didn’t get on Starace on the end. He came through qualifiers so no price up last night. Went up at 8s this morning which is a joke. Melzer cut to 12s.

The more I look at some of those matches the more horrible they appear . Lee - Udomchoke looks a cracker alright

[rcgills]

Melzer still available at 17 on Betfair, Wittmann. Starace is 12.5, although there's 86€ been matched at prices of between 22 and 32, so you might be able to get a decent price there.

[engineer]

Yeah, Wittmann, I have to agree with you, now I'm too confused about Pironkova. I really expected higher odds for Govortsova, and 2.10-2.20 ain't worth the risk.
Maybe I'll put some money "in play" at Betfair.

And Udomchoke is a full mug, but his opponent doesn't look better, so some money go for Danail. What a game that should be! 3 sets and 39 games I expect.

[Wittmann 44]

Have talked myself into a few £ on Monfils to beat Querry as the young Frenchman's price rises. The price looks too big against a player who does not have the clay court nous. Monfils needs some confidence and might have got it from Zagreb. He didn't become a bad player overnight (he says with hope)

1.5 Units Monfils @ 1.84

[bulit]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Have talked myself into a few £ on Monfils to beat Querry as the young Frenchman's price rises. The price looks too big against a player who does not have the clay court nous. Monfils needs some confidence and might have got it from Zagreb. He didn't become a bad player overnight (he says with hope)

1.5 Units Monfils @ 1.84

Be carefull Wittmann. Monfils was terible last week at Zagreb especially against Tipsarevic and he had some problems with injure. He told after match that he hope that he will be fit for French Open. Maybe he is still not recover from injure.
I don't want to fight with you but I think Querry could win this match. I watched him few weeks ago and he wasn't bad at all.

[Wittmann 44]

I don't want to fight with you but I think Querry could win this match.

Thanks for the information. Its a stupid bet I know and I thought about it long and hard. Earlier in the day there was no way I would have bet him when he was 1.70 but the price might be a bit of value. I saw most of the guys he beat in Zagreb were no hopers but I do think he is a better player than his recent results. Just very short on confidence. He has a new coach now as well.

I've seen Querry on hardcourt - very solid serve but on the clay I'm hoping it won't be as effective.

This event is a bit of a lottery trying to guess players motivations.

[bulit]

Good luck Witmman. I don't have any bets today from tennis but I hope you will win.

[Wittmann 44]

One final bet from Strasbourg. Morigami was very good to me in Prague with a few odds against wins en route to a first WTA title but she looks too short for her opener versus Belgian journeywoman Maes.

Maes has never made the breakthrough to WTA and at 25 her time is probably past. She has a decent ITF record and recently won a big ITF event in Rome.

The reason I think there might be a chance of an upset here is that Morigami could be nursing an injury. She withdrew from the doubles in Rome with an abdominal strain and was subsequently whipped 6-2,6-0 by Santangelo in the singles. With her eyes on the French Open she might be worth opposing (very small stakes) here.

Lay Morigami @ 1.26 (0.5 Units Risked)