Tennis 21st - 27th (ATP Austria, WTA Istanbul and Strasbourg)

[Wittmann 44]

Excellent start to the week with 4 from 5 including a tasty win at nearly 5/1 for Maes against Morigami which is easily the Belgian girl's best result ever. Only Miryni disappoints with a tame exit to Montcourt. Even though I backed Loit and she won it was a terrible game and her serving was woeful. She will face either Birnerova or Osteroh either of whom will go off at a tasty price against Loit who I think might be carrying an injury.

ATP today staked 3.0 Units
ATP today profit 1.20 Units

WTA today Staked 4.00 Units
WTA today profit 4.33 Units

Tomorrow Monaco's price has been falling against Melzer. Melzer has fired his coach and apparently is carrying a shoulder injury. I'm reluctant to get involved as I've a few quid on Melzer e/w already but its a game best avoided probably.

There is a very poignant game between tenni's forgotten man French Open 2004 finalist MartiN Verkerk and south American veteran Lapentti. Lapentti is carrying a long term injury and has barely played this year which makes quotes of 1.50 look very short. However Verkerk has been out of the game for over 2 years and his comeback in late 2006 has been adamp squib. I'd love to see him win something but more misery probably awaits.

Of the rest in Austria only Ljubcic appeals against Horna. The big Croat is serving well and Horna has been very patchy since getting injured in February. Delic who Ljubcic beat yesterdya dispatched Horna in Hamburg and I don't think Horna copes very well with the bg servers. H to H is 2-1 to Ljubcic. Hard to gauge the Croat's frame of mind so reduced stakes advised here. He is available to back at 1.64 and to lay at 1.70 on Betfair. I'd take anything at 1.66 or above.

1.5 Units Ljubcic @ 1.68

Prices are yet to stabilise on either Istanbul or Strasbourg. In Turkey Groenfeld looks a bit too long against Castano. The h to h is tied 1 apiece with both going to three sets. Groenfeld is in a poor run but she has been having the draws from hell this year. Castano has been ok but nothing special. I'd make her at best a marginal favorite and not the price of around 1.75 she is trading at. Groenfeld made the semi here in the inaugural year and is defending points. A first round exit here would see her drop around 10 places.

1 Unit Groenfeld @ 2.3 or above

[rcgills]

Nice going yesterday, Wittmann

Nothing I fancy today. Nothing at all Will have another look tomorrow.

[engineer]

In the afternoon I'll lump on Maria Sharapova to beat Pironkova 2:0. Bulgarian girl struggled yesterday against Govortsova, but prevailed in the third set. Today she faces world's number 2 and I don't expect from her to take more than 3-4 games.
Betfair offers ~1.40 for that punt and it looks huge to me.

Sharapova v Pironkova - 2:0 7/10

And before I could even see Wittmann's post, I made bets for Horna and Castano (even took Castano to win by 2:0)

Anyway, I hope I'll get at least one of those, the other could go Wittmann's way

[rene]

can´t understand the odds in the ARAG WC

Acasuso - Fish 1.16 - 4.50

mardy fish isn´t the best clay player but everytime good for a set..

2-1 win by the Gaucho @ 4.00 paddypower

[rene]

and also a double for me...

Ljubicic - Horna
Montanes - Montcourt

2.08 medium stake

[engineer]

Ufff, Sharapova v Pironkova 6:4, 7:6

The bet is in, but what a suspense.
Great performance from Pironkova and I know I won't be betting against her in France.

Good luck with your bets

[rene]

and also a double for me...

Ljubicic - Horna
Montanes - Montcourt

2.08 medium stake

horna was horny ..

[Wittmann 44]

Two losers yesterday with both Ljubcic and Groenfled losing. Ljubcic was up in the tiebreak by two breaks but lost the next 7. It rained during the day and the Croat’s serve was probably neutralised somewhat.

E/w fancy Melzer went out very tamely but Montanes and Starace safely through to next round.

ATP today staked 1.5 Units
ATP today loss -1.50 Units

WTA today Staked 1.00 Units
WTA today loss -1.00 Units

ATP event staked 4.5 Units
ATP event loss -0.30 Units

WTA today Staked 5.00 Units
WTA today profit 3.33 Units


Today.

Oprandi – Radawanksa

Oprandi might be worth trusting at small stakes after an excellent win over Katerina Bonadranko yesterday. Her services stats were excellent although it is questionable how committed Bondarenko was. Oprandi is having a poor 2007 but she has some decent results at ITF level and most of her recent defeats have gone to 3 sets. She faces junior French Open 2006 champion Radwanska today. The young Pole is a player on the rise but she is still fairly inexperienced and quotes at around 1.5 look very short.

Lay Radawanska @ 1.52 (0.5 Units Risked)

Osterloh vs Loit

In Strasbourg I backed Loit first round but she made heavy work of beating the very limited Sun in a match marred by numerous breaks of serve. She served less than 50% and served 8 double faults. I had intended opposing her next round but her opponent Osterloh’s clay stats are dire. She has beaten Loit twice on hardcourt (2001 and 2004) and has come through qualifiers here. I don’t see why she should be so much longer than Sun (nearly 4s as against 3s) and reluctantly she stands as a small bit of value here.

0.5 Units Loit 2-1 @ 4.0
0.5 risked Units Lay Loit @ 1.34

Vesnian vs Maes

Maes had a career best win against Morigami in the first round and a 4/1 winner for me but that was against a player with an injury who gifted her a mass of unforced errors. She served 10 double faults . Vesnina s having a poor season but eaily beat Zan first round and has been operating at a much higher level than Maes. For Maes this is uncharted territory and against a player who needs to get deep into an event to keep her ranking up I think she will come up short.

2 Units Vesnina @ 1.52


More to follow.

[Wittmann 44]

One more short priced players in Strasbourg

Li – Dusehevina

Li the top ranked Chinese player and their best clay courter has twice easily beaten Dusevina on hardcourt. She needs some games here as her form has been somewhat patchy. She made the QF here last year and Dushevina has been incapable recently of raising her game against the better players.

2 Units Li @ 1.43

In Austria

Monfils-Lee

Monfils had a solid win against Querry first round firing 9 aces in the process to suggest some confidence coming back. Lee won an error strewn match against the very limited clay courter Udomchoke. The one meeting on hardcourt was a very close 3 setter won by the Frenchman but this is clay and on the slower surface I can see Monfils superior movement and athleticism telling here.

2.5 Units Monfils @ 1.54

Hewitt-Starace

There looks to have been a serious overeeaction to Hewitt’s recent run in Hamburg. He played brilliantly there (well above himself on clay) but he is playing a player in excellent form in Starace. Starace this year has won in Naples, made the final in Valencia and the last 3 players to beat him were Nadal, Almagro and Davydenko. Only Nadal managed to do it in straight sets and Starace has his chances there. I cannot imagine him rolling over here. Hewitt might well win this but I fancy the Italian to give him a run for his money.

Starace 1 Unit @ 2.94
Hewitt 2-1 @ 4.3

Monaco-Russel

Monaco demolished hometown favourite Melzer yesterday with solid serving and very few unforced errors. He is having a good season with QFs in Houston and Estoril and took a set of Federer in Hamburg. Russel is one of the better US claycourters but it is all relative and he has lost easily recently to Massu, Benneteau, Garcia Lopez and I would expect this be to fairly bloodless for Monaco.

1.5 Units Moanco 2-0 @ 1.67

[Wittmann 44]

Reasonable day with 2 from 3 in the mans and 2 from 4 in the womens. Profit for both on the day. The two longshots in the womens events were spectacularly bad with both losing 6-1,6-2. There was a poor loss for Venus WIlliams in Turkey but I'm not sure how much to read into that.Easy for both Vesnina and Li.

In the ATP Monfils and Monaco won comfortably and Starace pushed Hewitt harder than the score might indicate. Hewitt saved 5 break points but seemed to play the key points better. Will hopefully get a chance to watch the highlights tonight.

ATP today staked 5.5 Units
ATP today profit 1.06 Units

WTA today Staked 5.50 Units
WTA today profit 0.30 Units

ATP event staked 5.5 Units
ATP event profit 0.76 Units

WTA today Staked 10.50 Units
WTA today profit 3.63 Units

[Wittmann 44]

QF stage tomorrow in Austria, Strasbourg and Istanbul

In Austria Davydenko is surprisingly long against Monaco (1.4). I've mentioned the Russians excellent record here and he is also applying for Austrian citizenship so will want to make a good impression. I have the feeling something is going on behind the scenes in this one as I would make him shorter to beat Monaco so I'm going to leave this one alone as being slightly off.

Hewitt should easily see off Hartfield but he's too low for me to get involved.

There will be a real test for Monfils against Roddick tomorrow. The H to H are 2-1 for A-Rod but Monfils won the sole clay match in Rome last year. There is no way the young Frenchman is playing at that level at the moment but his service game seems in good nick and he might make things tricky for the American.

1 Unit Monfills @ 3.20
0.5 Units Roddick 2-1 @ 4.5

In the final match I'm surprised at the odds against quoted on Montanes to beat Horna. Victory against Ljubcic aside Horna has been in poor form the last few months. If you take the South American clay out of it his record this year is abysmal with R1 and R2 here the first time he has won 2 in a row since July 2006. He has had back problems and Montanes is in a decent run of form at the moment himself. H to H (both clay) are 1 apiece but one is ancient and the other was decided on a retirement. Horna is serving very well (10 aces R 1 and 5 in R2) but I still think Montanes can needle him here.

1 Unit Montanes @ 2.44

In Strasbourg I will be on Medina Garrigues to beat Li. The price has yet to stabilise on Betfair but I will take anything over 1.80. Garrigues beat Li in Cahrleston last month in a tigt two setter and her recent clay form has been excellent with some solid wins and some close defeats to players the likes of Jankovic and Kuznestsova. Garrigues made the final here in 2005 and has an excellent QF record on clay - she is W15 L3 and bar her two recent defeats to V.WIlliams and Hantchova had won her previous 12 QF on clay. Li is decent on clay but she has not Garrigues experience which should provide the edge here.

2 Units Garrigues anything over 1.80

I was hoping that Vesnina's superior clay skills will surmount her recent poor run when she plays Bartoli. She beat her 6-1, 6-1 in the second round here last year and beat her on indoor hard in their only other meeting. Bartoli has never made the transition to clay very well and likes a faster surface. She is a wretched W1 L3 in QF on clay. Vesnina is 6-4 although she has lost all 5 of her WTA QF appearnaces so I'm still weighing this one. The fact Vesnina barely sereved 50% in her last two games has probably tipped the balance against her.

In Turkey Rezai caused a major shock by beating Venus Williams today and that has influenced her quote of 1.59 against American veteran Shaugnessy. I don't see this as a realistic price. Shaughnessy is reasonable on clay at this level and has been playing well recently. She beat Mirza in the first round and Rezai has been having a shocking 2007 , going on a dreadful run of W5 L 12 this year. Clay is definitely her best surface and I would make her favorite here but I can see it being closer than the prices are showing.

1 Unit Risked Lay Rezai @ 1.6

[Wittmann 44]

Best price I could get on Garrigues was 1.75 but took it slightly reluctnatly,

Massive price moce towards Bartoli in her match against Vesnina. Gone to 1.5 from over Evens and the Russian drifts to 3s. Very odd. One to leave alone

[rcgills]

Will go along with you on Montanes, Wittmann. Can't see why Montanes should be the outsider here - he's ranked higher than Horna, and he's in better form.

Montanes @ 2.46 4pts

Think you're right to steer clear of Davydenko's game if things look suspicious. Whether or not there's anything in it, who knows, but Davydenko seems to be involved in more games which appear, how shall we say, slightly dodgy, than most other players in the game.

Had a little bit on Roddick to win the tournament yesterday, so I'll leave his game with Monfils alone.

For the Istanbul event, 1.3 seems quite a big price on Sharapova to beat A. Radwanska. Presumably relating to Sharapova being injured recently, but she's up against a player who's 1-2 on clay this year, and 10-7 last year, but only 3 of those wins have been against top 100 players, and there have been quite a few defeats to players outside the top 100 too. Anyone know whether Sharapova's fully recovered from her injury or not?

Lastly, I'll also go along with you on Medina Garrigues. She actually won this event in 2005, is 2-0 up on Na Li on the H2H, and is in good form on clay.

Down to 1.73 now, but I'm still prepared to back her at that price.

Medina Garrigues to beat Na Li @ 1.73 4pts

[Wittmann 44]

I'd say Sharapova is close to 100% fitness wise. Perhaps she's not there 100% mentally but I can't see her losing this game. She needs some match time.

[bulit]

Today I go on Jankovic -6 WIN @1.85
Hewit 1 and thats all from me on this tournament. After few suprices like Horna beat Ljubicic I can't bet on Montanes but for me he is big favorit and like you said he is in great form at the moment