Tennis 14th- 20th (ATP Hamburg, WTA Rome & Morocco)

[Wittmann 44]

All clay

ATP Hamburg Masters draw here - http://dtb-tennis.rent-a-cluster.net...ng/singles.pdf


WTA Tier 1 Rome draw here - http://www.internazionalibnlditalia....F.pdf?44636531

WTA Tier II Fes Draw Not Up yet

Thoughts later. Have to lie down after the Wigan game

[Wittmann 44]

http://www.sonyericssonwtatour.com/3.../fes_draws.pdf


Fes - crappy crappy field. Top seed hasn't played for three months

[Wittmann 44]

A strange thing happened in the Hamburg Masters last year – neither Nadal nor Federer won! The reason being not that someone played the tennis of their life but rather that neither attended.

Federer had won the title in 2002, 2004 and 2005 but both he and Nadal missed due to injury worries last season. Nadal made the 3rd round on his sole outing back as a 16 year old in 2003. It remains the only clay Masters to elude him and few bookies are even pricing him up for adding to his 6 other clay Masters and 2 slams. The markets are very much betting “without Nadal”.

Bookies pricing the event like this, is probably only forcing many punters into doing what they have been doing on the clay events for a long time – trying to find Nadal’s final opponent.

The seeds in the top ½ are Federer, Ljubcic, Djokovic and Blake.

All is not well in camp Federer. A tame exit to Volandri in Rome and 5 defeats already in 2007 (he had only 6 in the entirety of 2007) show that cracks might be appearing. This is an event as a three time winner you feel he needs to win again to show that Nadal does not own him completely on clay. He has been helped by in my opinion a kind draw both in his quarter and in the 1/2 . Looking down his quarter only Ferrer really jumps out, as a danger. Ferrer has solid Masters credentials on clay (W22 L13) and has two QF appearances from 4 starts at Hamburg. I had another long look at Ferrero. The man has good Masters history on clay (P66 W50) but it is poor in Hamburg. His best days seem behind him although there are signs of a revival .Massu is too injury prone and Hamburg hating. Soderling self combusts too easily. Safin made two finals in Hamburg but hasn’t been beyond the QF in his last 11 Masters starts and his recent Hamburg history is very poor. Losses to the likes of Vliegen and Ramirez Hidalgo are pretty poor. If there are any chinks in Federer’s armour I’m not sure who is setup to exploit them. I cannot see the Swiss not making the SF here.If he is to be threatened I’d have a speculative nibble on Ferrer at 28/1.

In the rest of the ½ Ljubcic had a tame exit to Acasuso in Rome.His Hamburg form is patchy. He made the SF in Hamburg in 2004 but he has had some terrible exits as well. The big Croat’s serve won’t be enough to carry him here and a potential 3rd round clash with either Ferrer or Soderling will probably end his interest here. Even assuming he makes it to the QF Federer lurks, a player whom he has lost his last 9 encounters to.

I would discount Blake almost straight away. Like most American players clay simply is not his surface. He’s never been beyond a QF in a clay Masters and has two first round exits from three Hamburg appearances. A second round exit to a hardly in form Massu last week in Rome pretty much typifies his clay abilities. A bye to the second means he will play either Stepenak or Clement . A tricky second round encounter against most likely Stepanek will probably end his interest.

Djokovic is a more likely seed in this ½. Blake is the other seed and his quarter has a number of players whose form is currently patchy – Stepanek can’t seem to recapture his form of last year and Moya looks spent. Verdasco has the clay smarts but his 2007 form is terrible (Lost last 6) and a clay Masters record of 9-9 doesn’t appeal. He has beaten Djokovic on clay but his form is very suspect. Youznhy played well in Rome but has disappointed on clay Masters W12 L14 and in Hamburg (never beyond QF in 5 attempts). Berdych isW12 L9 on Masters clay but has no Hamburg form and you’d worry whether the Berdych who demolished Montanes, Acasuso will turn up or the one who surrendered tamely to Volabdri last week.

It should be set up for Djokovic to get to the semis but this is only his second Hamburg appearance and clay is not his best surface. He has played an awful lot of tennis in 2007 already and only the weakness of his quarter makes him any appeal at all. I’d want a lot more than the 6s on offer to be tempted. I’d plump for Youznhy on a value basis here especially as he is 2-1 vs Djokovic on H to H and is in decent clay form.

The bottom ½ seeds are Nadal, Davydenko, Gonzalez and last year’s winner Robredo. It looks a much more competitive ½ than the top ½ but Nadal is lurking like a great white shark there so I’d have to question an outright here. The floaters look more dangerous here as well – top ¼ has Almagro, Acasuso, Calleri, Canas, Chela which will be a tough ask for either Davydenko and Robredo. Anyone of those could contest the SF with a few breaks. None of the floaters has the solidity of either Robredo or Davydenko. Davydenko has both current form (gallant SF exit to Nadal in Rome) and Hamburg form (SF 06, QF 05). Robredo is defending points to keep himself in the top 10 so will want nothing for motivation but his 06 win was in a weakened field and he has been off the boil since early 2007. Davydenko’s 14s looks very skinny when you consider he will have to play Nadal and also when you consider recent retirements.

Nadal’s quarter of the draw contains Gonzalez who will be annoyed in the extreme to be lumped with the Spanish whizz again. Gaudio is tragically out of form, Melzer has no pedigree at this level and Bagdhdatis is not a clay courter. Gasquet made the final here in 2005 and has solid Masters form on clay (W15 L8) but can you really see him troubling Nadal? He has taken sets of him back in 2005/2004 but Nadal is only getting better.
Waiting for prices but using Stan James as a tissue I’m thinking the QF draw will be.

Federer (13/8) vs Ferrer (28/1)
Youznhy (33/1) vs Berdych (20/1)
Robredo (25/1) vs Davydenko (14/1)
Gasquet (14/1) Nadal (no betting)

Despite Federer’s “slump” (if you could call it that) given his strong history here you’d have to say that 13/8 for making the final are reasonable odds. Bottom ½ of the draw you are relying on Nadal slipping up which makes the quotes on the bottom ½ look very skimpy. Hoping that Federer might indeed have some problems to me seems the better option (if like me you can't keep your money in your pocket ). Younznhy has good h to h against both Berdych and Ferrer.

Ferrer (28/1 or above)
Youznhy (33/1 or above)
Berdych (26/1 or above)

[bulit]

We should be careful because Garos is next week so maybe some player will save themselfs for next week. Last year there was a lot's of suprices in Hamburg so I will be carefull and with low stakes this week.

[bulit]

Monday, May 14, 2007
ATP Masters Hamburg (GER) - Claycourt, World
11:00 AM Juan Carlos Ferrero (ESP) 1.18
Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) 3.78

11:00 AM Marc Gicquel (FRA) 2.14
Gilles Simon (FRA) 1.55

11:00 AM Nicolas Almagro (ESP) 1.01
Martin Verkerk (NED) 8.27

11:00 AM Radek Stepanek (CZE) 1.56
Arnaud Clement (FRA) 2.12

11:00 AM Tomas Berdych (CZE) 1.24
Fernando Verdasco (ESP) 3.27

12:15 PM Dmitry Tursunov (RUS) 3.69
Igor Andreev (RUS) 1.19

12:15 PM Guillermo Canas (ARG) 1.39
Juan Ignacio Chela (ARG) 2.55

12:15 PM Richard Gasquet (FRA) 1.17
Gaston Gaudio (ARG) 3.88

1:30 PM David Ferrer (ESP) 1.03
Jonas Bjorkman (SWE) 7.10

1:30 PM Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) 2.55
Agustin Calleri (ARG) 1.39

1:30 PM Robin Soderling (SWE) 1.17
Robby Ginepri (USA) 3.88

2:45 PM Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) 2.20
Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) 1.52



WTA - Rome (ITA) - Claycourt, World
8:00 PM Elena Dementieva (RUS) 1.15
Maria Elena Camerin (ITA) 3.92

odds are from www.bwin.com

[bulit]

on first look Simon is my first pick but I go to see h2h and statistics for theese matches

[M.H.]

Agree on Simon, and also like Kohlschreiber to snatch it and Chela looks like a value of the day for me.

From others Bolleli could have a decent chance for beating Serra and Massu to get smt from Safin match.

[rene]

Are you sure about Simon?The H2H with Challengers is 4-2 for Gicquel. He´s higher in the ATP Ranking and Simon wasn´t very good in on clay courts in this season so far... no bet for me

[Wittmann 44]

Like quite a few today.

Stepanek to beat Clement

2 Units @ 1.49 Stepanek

Stepanek was a Finalist last year and much more clay pedigree than the Frenchman. Clement excludeing qualifiers is W1 L4 in Hamburg.

Simon to beat Gicquel

Gicquel leads the H to H 4-2 but the sole clay meeting was an easy Simon win. Made 3rd round here last year and has been performing well in clay Masters unlike Gicquel for whom this is a big step up. I’d make Simon a lot shorter.

2 Units @ 1.84 Simon

Chela to beat Canas

Not sure why Chela is such an underdog here. The H to H is 2-1 for him on clay and he played well in Rome last week before going out to eventual finalist Gonzalez. He also made the QF here in 2005 and will surely run Canas a lot closer than the odds suggest.

1.5 Units Chela @ 2.52

[rene]

passed the 10 am matches

But for later this day I like

Tursunov - Andreev
--> 1:2 @ 3.60

Hewitt - Calleri 3 sets @ 2.00

in a double 7.60 small stake

Tursunov - Andreev
both are russians and they know each other. the H2H is 1-3 but every meeting with good fights from both. I think that Tursunov isn´t chanceless versus Andreev but Andreev is the better one with more experience - thatswhy a 3 set match with 1-2 as result!

Hewitt - Calleri
Hewitt lead 1-0. He beaten Calleri in a hard court match in Adelaide (3sets). both are unlucky on clay and I hope that both can win a set .. 3 Set match is my punt here..

[Wittmann 44]

Monaco vs Hrbaty

Monaco looks very short against Hrbaty. He is W3 L4 on clay Masters and even an out of form Hrbaty should make this a closer game than the odds suggest. He took a set of Ferrero in Rome and I would be surprised if he is not at least competitive here.

Hrabty 0.75 Units @ 3.25

Hewitt vs Calleri

Hewitt went out in Rome when a rain delay allowed Hernandez to regroup and take advantage of the slower conditions. Hewitt is a semi finalist twice here. Calleri has lost the last two (includeing a dismal loss to Starace in Rome) and his prior two victories were a retirement and a tight 3 setter against Udomchoke. The annoying Aussie well worth a punt here.

Hewitt 1.5 Units @ 2.66

I’m tempted by Massu but he is injury prone and Safin has past (if not recent) form here. Baghdatis has a grudge match against Kohlschreiber after a bad tempered defeat to him in Muncih a fortnight ago and might be motivated enough to overturn that result at big odds.

[rene]

Monaco vs Hrbaty

Monaco looks very short against Hrbaty. He is W3 L4 on clay Masters and even an out of form Hrbaty should make this a closer game than the odds suggest. He took a set of Ferrero in Rome and I would be surprised if he is not at least competitive here.

Hrabty 0.75 Units @ 3.25

thought about Hrbaty too Wittmann .. but my thoughts against a bet were that Hrbaty is only tall and he has impressive serves but clay is a bit to fast for him isn´t it?

[Wittmann 44]

Yeah Hrbaty is more serve and volley but I think Monaco is nothing special either. He is W3 L4 at Masters and I’d be surprised if Hrabty doesn’t trade lower at some point in the game.

A few from Rome

Sugiyama – Kirilenko

The lovely Maria Kirlenko in a terrible slump at the moment. She is W7 L12 for the year , a carryover from a poor 2006. Sugiyama not a clay courter but decent form in Rome (semis in 2003) and a better win than loss record here.

1.5 Units Sugiyama @ 1.83

Knapp – Castano

Castano another player in a very poor run of form. Even on her favourite clay surface she hasn’t been beyond a QF since January 2006. Knapp is a hometown girl coming of some decent ITF form. She made the SF in Budapest and prior to that was in 3 consecutive ITF finals. Castano probably the better player but form so poor she is looking to be opposed here.

1.5 Units Knapp @ 1.80

Sprem-Danildou

Sprem has never followed up on her breakthrough 2006 Oz Open performance and has slipped to 113 in the rankings. She has come through qualification beating Dominguez Lino and Nagy. Danildou simply isn’t a clay courter. Its far too slow for her brand of tennis and her 2007 form is at least as bad as Sprems. The Croatian has the class and the clay court nous to win this.

2.5 Units Sprem @ 1.60

[rene]

Simon to beat Gicquel

Gicquel leads the H to H 4-2 but the sole clay meeting was an easy Simon win. Made 3rd round here last year and has been performing well in clay Masters unlike Gicquel for whom this is a big step up. I’d make Simon a lot shorter.

2 Units @ 1.84 Simon

well done Simon won 6-1 and 6-0

[bulit]

Great job for Simon. Other matches today have low odds and I don't want to go with big stake so this was everything from me for today.