Tennis 14th- 20th (ATP Hamburg, WTA Rome & Morocco)

[Wittmann 44]

Hamburg Prices (Ladbroke Prices)



Wednesday 16th of May, 2007

R Federer vs J Monaco
1/16 R Federer 7/1 J Monaco 10:05
JC Ferrero vs M Safin
4/6 JC Ferrero 11/10 M Safin 10:05
N Djokovic vs J Benneteau
1/8 N Djokovic 9/2 J Benneteau 10:05
J Blake vs A Clement
1/2 J Blake 6/4 A Clement 10:05
J I Chela vs L Hewitt
2/5 J I Chela 7/4 L Hewitt 10:05
N Davydenko vs G Simon
2/7 N Davydenko 5/2 G Simon 10:05
F Gonzalez vs P-H Mathieu
8/13 F Gonzalez 6/5 P-H Mathieu 10:05
I Andreev vs P Kohlschreiber
5/6 I Andreev 5/6 P Kohlschreiber 10:05

[Wittmann 44]

WTA Rome 2nd Round Prices

Wednesday 16th of May, 2007

E Dementieva vs C Castano
1/6 E Dementieva 7/2 C Castano 12:05
P Schnyder vs M Tu
1/10 P Schnyder 11/2 M Tu 12:05


D Safina vs K Kanepi
1/7 D Safina 4/1 K Kanepi 12:05
N Dechy vs Y Fedak
4/11 N Dechy 2/1 Y Fedak 12:05
S Peer vs A Sugiyama
2/9 S Peer 3/1 A Sugiyama 13:30
J Jankovic vs T Paszek
1/10 J Jankovic 11/2 T Paszek 13:30
N Vaidisova vs G Voskoboeva
1/8 N Vaidisova 9/2 G Voskoboeva 13:30
S Kuznetsova vs M Santangelo
1/5 S Kuznetsova 10/3 M Santangelo 13:30
K Bondarenko vs K Sprem
2/5 K Bondarenko 7/4 K Sprem 13:30
A Mauresmo vs S Stosur
1/6 A Mauresmo 7/2 S Stosur 15:00
D Hantuchova vs S Bammer
evens D Hantuchova 8/11 S Bammer 15:00
A Chakvetadze vs Z Yan
1/9 A Chakvetadze 5/1 Z Yan 15:00
N Petrova vs M Shaughnessy
1/10 N Petrova 11/2 M Shaughnessy 16:30

[Wittmann 44]

One price that looks value in Rome is Dechy to beat Fedak. Dechy is ranked around 90 places above Fedak who has only once beaten a top 50 player on clay. She has a terrible Tier 1 record of W3 L11 and W1 L4 on clay. Fedak struggled past Oprandi (who herself had lost the last three) in 3 in the last round having qualifies as a lucky loser. Dechy is no clay courter but she is operating at a significantly higher level than Fedak. She easily beat Groenfeld (rank 40) in the last round. Best price is 2/5 on Ladbrokes and Stan James.It will be higher on Betfair tomorrow. Take anything over 1.45

2 Units Dechy @ 1.45 or above (Betfair)

If you like your short priced accumulators there looks like a mass of extremely one sided games in Rome tomorrow. Jankovic (1.1), Chakvetadze (1.1) and Safina (1.12) should all win comfortably. Peer served 96% in her first round game faces Sugiyama who fired 11 dfs in an error riddled game against Kirilenko.She goes at 1.28 on Stan James.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

How is Mathieu playing just now?

I know Gonzo has just been to a final but i cant say i was impressed by his displays on the way there.

His serve used to be a weapon but its quite worrying how much he is struggling on it at the moment imo.

Could be worth a dabble on Mathieu?

Going to lay Mauresmo also. Shes just back from injury, well she was in the last tournament where she lost unexpectantly.

Game was very rusty and it is WTA afterall so anything can happen.

Good stuff and great job been going on in here so far folks

[Wittmann 44]

Mathieu’s been playing well this year. Semi in Barcelona and won in Casablanca. Came through qualifiers here so will be acclimatised better than Gonzalez. His first service stats were very poor in the qualifiers though – less than 50% in his 3 games. Leads Gonzo 3-2 including two wins this year. Gonzalez beat him in straight sets in Hamburg in 2005. I’d probably bet him if it wasn’t for the service stats. He dropped a set to a player ranked 302 in the first qualifying round. Gonzalez was brilliant and awful sometimes within the same game in Rome. He is a streaky player and he has followed final appearances in the past with some good runs.

I can’t see Mauresmo in trouble here. This is one of her favourite events. She’s won it twice and a finalist another three times. Vakulenko beat her last week but she’s a better player on clay than Stosur. The H to H are 5-0 against her and the total games are 61-21 against her. Prior to beating Schiavone. Stosur has a decent serve for WTA and Rome is the fastest of the clay events but even with that I’d be amazed if she nicked a set.

If any of the big guns are vulnerable today it might be Kuznetsova. She plays Italian Santagelo after a drawn out final in Berlin. She played with a thigh strapping for some of the event and pulled from the doubles. Santangelo has two noteworthy scalps this year in Petrova on clay and Jankovic on hardcourt both at odds of nearly 8 to 1. MIght be worth a nibble with the intention of laying some back at shorter odds if the Italian looks anyway threatening.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Kiko

How is Mathieu playing just now?

I know Gonzo has just been to a final but i cant say i was impressed by his displays on the way there.

His serve used to be a weapon but its quite worrying how much he is struggling on it at the moment imo.

Could be worth a dabble on Mathieu?

Mathieu is on a very good run, Kiko. He's 9-1 for his last 10 matches, and strictly speaking wasn't actually beaten in the "defeat", he made the semis at Estoril, where he retired against Gasquet when 3-1 down in the first. Tournament before that he won, in Casablanca. Have taken Mathieu myself, think the price on him is a bit too big.

For the womens' tournaments, shortlist so far of Gajdosova, Bondarenko, Sugiyama, Hantuchova, Stosur and Srebotnik, off to try and whittle that down now.

[Wittmann 44]

Acasuso's odds have been driven down significantly on Betfair and cut on many books. He is around 1.47 now.

[rcgills]

Have decided to go with Gajdosova and Srebotnik.

Can't see why Gajdosova should be the outsider here. Cornet has been winning a lot of matches, but with the exception of Acapulco in the first week of March, she's not really beaten anyone of note, and she's been knocked out of her last 4 tournaments (all on clay) by players outside the top 100, the last 2 of which have been to players ranked lower than her. Gajdosova ranked 85 in the world, had a reasonable run in Prague last week, beating 8th seed Rodionova 6-1 6-0 in the 1st round, and eventually losing in the QF to top seed Bartoli.

Lay Cornet @ 1.82, liability 2pts

Srebotnik has a 3-1 H2H lead over Medina Garrigues, although admittedly they've not met since 2005. 2 meetings on clay, both in 2003, with one win each. Both players in pretty erratic form, but I think that on her day Srebotnik is more than capable of winning this one.

Lay Medina Garrigues @ 1.67, liability 2pts

As mentioned in my previous post, have also taken Mathieu @ 2.14 for 2.5pts.

As for outrights, anyone know when Betfair are bringing back the prices for Hamburg? I've seen on the forum that they were removed due to doubts over whether Nadal will play or not. Not seen anything anywhere so far suggesting he won't though

For the Fes event, have had a little bit on 7th seed Pin at 11 or thereabouts. Seems to be opening up quite nicely for her - top seed is out, 2nd seed withdrew, 3rd and 4th seeds (both in her half of the draw) are out. Only seed left in her half is King, who's not got much of a record on clay.

Pin to win Fes @ 10.86 (average odds) 1.5pts

In Italy, the top half looks one to avoid really - Mauresmo, Schnyder, Serena Williams, Jankovic, Dementieva and Petrova all in there. The bottom half only actually has 5 seeds due to withdrawals. Srebotnik (15th seed) may not be a bad bet - if she can get past Medina Garrigues, she faces either Voskoboeva or a lucky loser in the 3rd round due to Vaidisova withdrawing. At 70.0 on Betfair, if she makes it through today I'd expect that to drop a fair bit. 44.0 available on Bammer too, not a bad price for a player having a great season. Tough draw though, Hantuchova in the 2nd round and probably Chakvetadze in the 3rd, and that's just to make it to the quarter finals. Think I'll leave this one for now.

[Wittmann 44]

Two more from Rome – both involving the Bondarenkos

Garbin – A.Bondarenko

Bondarenko beat Garbin last week in Berlin in two but retired when well behind against Ivanovic in the next round with a leg injury. She was taken to three very tight sets yesterday by unheralded Chinese player Sun. Garbin is at home and although she has never played particularly well in Rome her record in Italy is very good with final appearances in Palermo, Modena and a number of challengers. She beat useful on clay compatriot Pennetta yesterday.

1 Unit Garbin @ 2.32

Sprem – K.Bonarenko

The other Bondarenko Katerina plays Sprem who managed to beat Danildou while serving 41%. He returning was good although the Greek had numerous chances to break her. Sprem fought hard and saved a number of break points while serving out so will be in good heart. She beat Bondarenko in 2 in Charleston last year and Bondarenko struggled in the qualifiers against both Errani and Fedak dropping a set to each. Sprem might be getting some confidence back.

1 Unit Sprem @ 2.52

[rcgills]

Nice start there for you, Wittmann, with the Chela, Simon and Moya bets in already. Not sure what's going on with Dechy, mind you - 6-1 2-0 up, and then loses 10 of the next 11, now 4-1 down in the decider

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Backed Stosur @ 5.30 and just laid her at 1.81 against Mauresmo for a lovely profit

[rcgills]

Nice one Kiko

Srebotnik's been beaten in straight sets for me, managed to hold serve just twice all game

[Wittmann 44]

Glad I did not put you off Mauresmo Kiko . Great win for Stosur.

I didn't actually back Dechy in the end as she was backed down to 1.39 in the morning. Hope Acasuso can keep up his comeback. Volabdri choked when serving for the game.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Glad I did not put you off Mauresmo Kiko . Great win for Stosur.

I didn't actually back Dechy in the end as she was backed down to 1.39 in the morning. Hope Acasuso can keep up his comeback. Volabdri choked when serving for the game.

Thankfully you didnt

[bulit]

I wasn't home today and I skip all matches and I'm angry now
Great calls today guys.

Thursday 17th of May, 2007
ATP Hamburg

1.12 N Djokovic 5.50 J Benneteau 09:05
1.72 J Nieminen 2.00 F Mayer 09:05
1.72 F Gonzalez 2.00 P-H Mathieu 09:45
1.20 R Gasquet 4.33 J Melzer 09:45

WTA - Rome (ITA) - Claycourt, World

1:00 PM Anna Chakvetadze (RUS) 1.60
Daniela Hantuchova (SVK) 2.02
1:00 PM Dinara Safina (RUS) 1.18
Kateryna Bondarenko (UKR) 3.61
1:00 PM Nadia Petrova (RUS) 1.21
Elena Dementieva (RUS) 3.35
1:00 PM Patty Schnyder (SUI) 1.30
Samantha Stosur (AUS) 2.82
1:00 PM Serena Williams (USA) 1.20
Shahar Peer (ISR) 3.43
1:00 PM Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) 1.05
Yuliana Fedak (UKR) 6.00