Tennis 7-13 May (ATP Rome, WTA Berlin and Prague)

[rcgills]

1.833 for over 19.5 games in Nadal v Djokovic? Even a 6-4 6-4 would bring that bet in. A tie-break in a set would near enough guarantee it, barring a 6-0 in the other. They've met 3 times before, Nadal leads 2-1, and the only time they didn't go over 19.5 games was the time Djokovic won. One meeting on clay, at Roland Garros last year, Nadal was 6-4 6-4 up when Djokovic retired.

Could be tempted on that, unless anyone wants to try and put me off.

[Wittmann 44]

Nadal - Djokovic should be a cracker. It’s a grudge match as Djokovic gave a press conference after Roland Garros where he said he was playing better than Nadal and in control of the match when he was forced to retire. A bit rich given he was down 6-4, 6-4 at the time . Nadal subsequently gave a rebuttal press conference where he went through how he’d played better. No love lost between the two.

I thought Djokovic was poor yesterday against Bagy. Bagy was 5-1 up in the second set and managed to throw away 6 games on the bounce through a mess of unforced errors. Thought the Serb looked very tired although I suppose if you can’t raise it against Nadal then you might as well give up.

Nadal beat Youznhy 6-2, 6-2 despite a hospital visit the same day and despite Youznhy playing tennis that would have beaten just about anyone else. Really high quality game. Nadal looked 100%.

A lot will depend on who gets first serve for the total games. I’d be inclined to under 19.5 which means your’re home and hosed going over Rcgills

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Nadal beat Youznhy 6-2, 6-2 despite a hospital visit the same day and despite Youznhy playing tennis that would have beaten just about anyone else. Really high quality game. Nadal looked 100%.

I didn't see all of the game, but in the bits I did see, I wasn't all that impressed with Youzhny. Went through a spell of just hanging in there on rallies, but it was almost always Youzhny rather than Nadal that cracked first and committed an error. Then he had a spell of trying to finish points off as soon as possible, and that didn't really work out either.

Agree though that Nadal looked 100%, and was looking in pretty ominous form.

[Wittmann 44]

Another turd of a day . Happy to exactly break even in the end after a great start. Bet of the day romped home 6-1, 6-1 as did the other Prague selection. I didn’t see the Berdych match but he seems to have won only 3 points of Volandri’s serve, a serve noted for its crapness. Schynder threw away a lead in both sets and numerous break opportunities in a game that shows why women’s tennis is fairly laughable on most occasions. 31 games – 11 breaks of serve :wasntme

[Wittmann 44]

Will be the last days betting in Rome given how hard it will be to get any edge in a game featureing Nadal. He will steamroll Davydenko who struggled to beat both Strace and Robredo and who lost to OLivier Patience a few matches ago. Nadal is unbeaten on clay since April 2005 and is 89-2 in since January 2005. Question really is who will stop in Roland Garros (bar himself and injury).

The other match between Gonzo and Volandri has more potential. Amazed by Volandri's progress beating Gasquet, Federer and Berdych (1, 12 & 13 rankings) en route to his first Masters semi. I keep thinking the wheels will come off but Berdych was dire yesterday by all accounts and I'm hoping the Gonzo who turned up last night in a hugely impressive performance will turn up again today. The Chilean is 1-1 in the H to H but has far more pedigree at this level. The crowd of 15,000 baying Italians is a worry but I thought Gonzalez might be around 1.7 so I've hoovered up the 1.80 on Betfair.

2 Units Gonzalez @ 1.80

In Prague Azarenka goes off at around 1.40 against Morigami who is not a clay specialist but who is no mug at this level either. She should win but Morigami is her practice partner and the Belarussian has done enough for me to leave well alone this week.

InGemrany Ivanovic faces Vakulenko who dumped out and unfit Mauresmo in the 2nd round and Safina previously. The Ukrainian is having a decent little season but she's played 11 in 14 days now as she played qualifiers in Warsaw (where she retired in the SF) and fatigue will be a major issues. Ivanovic beat an in form Schynder yesterday in what seems to have been an ugly match. I think she will have too much power for the Ukrainian today.

2 Units Ivanovioc @ 1.5

[delijaworld]

Hi

12 May 14:30 Rafael Nadal v Nikolay Davydenko -2500 +1000



P.s. good luck if you betting

[Wittmann 44]

Nice analysis

Gonzo wins easily Ivanovic wins by retirement (not unexpected) so a final ray of sunshine. The games finally caught up with Azarenka and I'm annoyed I didn't have a punt on Morigami at over 3s as she was big value.

[Wittmann 44]

Nadal fought easily his hadest clay game of the year when winning an epic 3 setter against Davydenko while Gonzo was in cruise mode versus Volandri. Gonzo 3-1 in H to H but they share the two clay games and Nadal pounded him here last year. On hard Gonzo would have a definite chance but hard again to see Nadal not being able to raise his game if threatened. A no better.

In Prague Bartoli faces Morigami in the final with neither of the ladies known as a claycourter (this is actually theclay final appearance for Bartoli). Morigami beat Azarenka yesterday while Bartoli got a retirement in her semi. Bartoli has won their two meetings on hardcourt and surface aside is operateing on a much higher level than the Japanese girl. Her finals record is P7 W6 (4 WTA events) and she has beaten the likes of Zvonereva and Poutchakova. Morigami is P5 W2 and she has only played one ATP final. Having said that Morigami's progress has been harder to the final and this could be a very tight match. Morigami has a better clay record overall and has takjen some decent players to 3 sets. I'd make this at best a 55-45 match to Bartoli soI'd be expecting around 1.8 for Bartol. The quotes of 1.61 look way on the low side so make her a lay in my book today. Morigami will have great heart from beating Azarenka so fiingers crossed the occasion does not get to her

Morigami 1 Unit @ 2.64

[Wittmann 44]

Morigami wins 6-1, 6-3 for a very succesful weeks betting in Prague. If I hadn't spunked max stakes on Roddick vsChela it would have been almost bearable elsewhere.

Watched 1st set of Nadal - Gonzo. Despite playing a fairly good game the Chilean completely overwhelmed. Of to Hamburg next where Federer has won 3 of the last 4 he's played in. Nadal only appearance in 2003. With the way the season is going Federer really needs a win here. Nadal leads the Champions Race and with him likely to pull further away after Roland Garros if he does significantly better than Federer here the Swiss will be chasing him after the summer. Federer has apparently just sacked coach Tony Roche so all obviously not well in team Federer.