Tennis 7-13 May (ATP Rome, WTA Berlin and Prague)

[engineer]

Yeah, nice thread, as there are tennis games during the whole afternoon and you can't really have a tedious time.

Carlos Moya looks reasonable bet to me, and in some other games I really like the "underdogs" - Wawrinka, Monfils, Llodra, Andreev, Bolelli and Benneteau. I'll put some money at these, as I think at least a couple of them will win today.

[rcgills]

Wouldn't argue with most of those, Engineer, reckon most of them stand a reasonable chance on a good day, and am on Llodra and Bolelli myself. Having said that, I've gone against Monfils today, he's having a poor year by his earlier standards, and I think Blake should see him off without too many problems. Have included Blake in another short-priced accumulator (not learnt my lesson from yesterday ): Blake, Bammer, Hantuchova, Ivanovic @ around 2.05 for 2pts.

Have now placed those other 2 bets I mentioned yesterday:

Lay Dementieva @ 1.63 (average odds, Betfair) liability 2pts
Lay O. Rochus @ 1.52 (Betfair) liability 2pts

That'll do for me for today.

And as usual my outright bets are drifting after I've backed them Ferrero now 240 (backed at 220), despite having won his 1st round game (actually, come to think of it, maybe it's because of the way he won his 1st round game ) and Chela is now 380 (backed at 300). One I forgot to mention yesterday but who I think is worth keeping an eye on is Youzhny. He's in Nadal's quarter of the draw, but he has beaten Nadal this year, albeit not on clay. Runner up in Munich last week, and is having a good season. Available at around 180, although not sure whether tiredness may be an issue after last week. Rather than back him outright, I think I'll just leave it and consider maybe backing him to beat Nadal assuming they meet in the 3rd round as scheduled.

[Wittmann 44]

Carlos Moya looks reasonable bet to me, and in some other games I really like the "underdogs" - Wawrinka,

Baghdatis threw a few tantrums in Munich and needed a number of injury time outs as well. Moya even past his best should have too much.

Wawrinka hasn't played singles since back in January although he came through two sets (losing) in the doubles yesterday.

I’m going to go against a 4-0 head to head and say Verdasco might trouble Gasquet. 3 of their games have been very tight 3 setters most recently a three setter in ffice:smarttags" />Monte Carlo with a tiebreaker won 14-12. Gasquet is coming off a drawn out final defeat to Djokovic in Portugal and has lost 4 of his last 5 appearances after contesting a final. He’s a worthy favourite but 1.4 looks too short.
fficeffice" />
Lay Gasquet @ 1.40 (1 Unit Rised to Win 3.5)
Gasquet 2-1@ 4.2 0.5 Units

A similar bet on Monfils to beat Blake. He is showing some signs of recovery and Blake outside the US has the typical American hatred of clay. Monfils an injury risk lately but worth a dabble IMO.

Monfils @ 3.15 1 Units
Blake 2-1 @ 4.2 0.5 Units

[bulit]

It's raining again but dementieva is already over and Berdych won and he won with handicap
So far so good.

[rcgills]

Nice start there Bulit Not so good for me, as both Santangelo and Delic throw away a 1 set lead (and in Santangelo's case, a 3-0 lead with 2 breaks in the deciding set). Did at least lay Santangelo to cover my stake when she was 3-0 up in the decider, so didn't lose anything there.

Wawrinka into a deciding set tie-breaker for Engineer

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Yeah good stuff folks.

Ended up on Dementieva in the end after starting off on Santangelo then trading over to Dementieva @ 2.70. Thought she had blown it like normal but she held on.

Nice tipping so far

[rcgills]

Is it just me or is Dementieva's serve getting better? Didn't seem anywhere near as bad as it's looked in the past.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Is it just me or is Dementieva's serve getting better? Didn't seem anywhere near as bad as it's looked in the past.

Definately looked like it has improved. Dont have the stats to back it up or not on me though?

If she can sort that out then she will be a very decent bet as i have lost count of the number of times it has cost her in games.

[rcgills]

I've no idea how the stats compare to in the past, but the serve certainly looked stronger than before. Still far too many double faults in there though:

Aces: 2
Double faults: 11
1st serve %: 64
1st serve points won: 40/65 (62%)
2nd serve points won: 14/36 (39%)
Break points saved: 7/12 (58%)

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by bulit

From higher odds I fancy L Dominguez Lino,whos in great form this month and with positive score this season,and I like Srebotnik,Schnyder and Dementieva over 19 all for low stake

Good stuff, Bulit, 3/3 winners from the games that were actually finished . Hopefully Schnyder v Vinci will go to a deciding set (to be won by Vinci ) and you'll have a clean sweep.

Not such a good day for myself, as Llodra joined Santangelo and Delic in throwing away a 1 set lead, and Bolelli lost in straight sets. The 4-fold is still on though. Can't complain too much about players throwing away a 1 set lead though, as my two outrights playing today, Chakvetadze and Chela, came back from 1 set down to win.

Anyway, only 2 bets really stand out to me for tomorrow, Poutchkova to beat Schruff and Peer to beat Muller. Will decide on whether to go with them tomorrow morning though.

[Beanie]

I really dislike match betting but before getting stuck into the outrights after this round I do like the look of Igor Andreev to beat JI Chela in the 2nd round in Rome.

Andreev's results are pretty miserable this year, there's no doubting that, and he's even been beaten by Chela once already on clay this year, but he has been playing ok, well enough to mix it with the best players. Final set tiebreak defeats to Nadal and Djokovic in recent tournies back this up, and a superb win over Ferrer in the first round suggests that this might be the tournement where he can string a few wins together. Chela struggled a little against Giquel and I'll take Andreev to edge this one @ around 1.72.

[rene]

Wednesday - 09/05/07

11.05 am
Djokovic - Soderling 1.36 - 2.87
Berdych - Montanes 1.20 - 4.00
Baghdatis - Stepanek 1.72 - 2.00

12.45 pm
F.Gonzalez - Tursunov 1.20 - 4.00
Volandri - Gasquet 3.00 - 1.33

1.05 pm
Youzhny - o.Rochus 1.28 - 3.25

2.15 pm
Canas - G.Simon 1.16 - 4.50
Nadal - Bracciali 1.01 - 13.00

3.45 pm
Davydenko - Safin 1.83 - 1.83

6.40 pm
JC. Ferrero - Starace 1.83 - 1.83

odds paddypower

[rcgills]

Cheers Rene, although I've merged it into the existing thread (which was in Other Sports), and moved the lot into this tennis forum.

[Wittmann 44]

Not doing very well here :wasntmein Rome despite a good bit of work.

Today.

Roddick to beat Gaudio 3 Units @ 1.56

Gaudio was makng noises about retiring recently saying he is sick of tennis. He best Fish yesterday as exepected but Roddick will be a stiffer test. This is Roddicks best clay event by far awith a QF and a SF appearance here. Its Gaudios worst probably becuase Rome is the fastest of the Masters surfaces for clay which suits the big servers more and nullifies the advatantages of the more natural clay courters. Hoping it stays dry in Rome and Roddicks big serve will dishearten the Argentine.

Ferrero to beat Starace 2 Units @ 1.99

3-0 in the H to H for Ferrero includeing two this year and all on clay. All close and Starace will have the home crowd behind him but it looks a big price. Calleri gifted Starace the match yesterday with a lot of UEs and DFs and I'm hoping Ferrero will be more consistent.


Stepanek might trouble Bagdatis but his form is poor. I've a thing about opposieng Gasquet and Volandri is at home but I'd want more than being offered.

Short priced Gonzalez should beat Tursonov.

[rene]

Cheers Rene, although I've merged it into the existing thread (which was in Other Sports), and moved the lot into this tennis forum.

no prob my spanish friend ..