Rashin's NBA(Newbie)

[Rashin]

Well I have been busy digesting the stuffs Sipu gave me and decided to give this a try, who knows I may be the next big thing in NBA betting . It's mostly paper money here or at most small punts, no serious money involved. I just want to know if I can make a profit in the long run on NBA, I know it's one of the hardest sports to bet on, people prefer to bet on other basketball leagues rather than the NBA, but well noone will know until they try. I'll stop when i lose my whole bank, which I think wont be long.

Bank : $5000 to makes it easies, all bets $100 flat, like Sipu's. Most bets mainly straight FT ones, I'm not going to venture to the Over/Under markets yet nor the 1st Half markets. May the newbie luck be with me.

#1(in 30mins)
LA Clippers v Minnesota Timberwolves(+7.5) 2@1.88 $100

[Kiko]

Yeah its very difficult to sustain a profit in NBA like you say. Need to hit over 50% strike rate for a profit with the handicap betting.

Will kep an eye on it.

Good luck

[aliensyndm]

If yer average odds are 1.909 (10/11) you gotta hit 52.7% just to break even. It's not an easy thing to do long term. The best handicappers can manage high 50s long term.

Brave first pick anyway rashin, minnesota have been really bad lately, I wouldn't touch them with someone else's myself.

Is that a pinnacle line you are betting with ? Be patient and wait on the pinnacle lines and it will bounce about and you can usually jump on at a good line with a good price. Right now pinnacle have minnesota +7.5 at 1.98 rather than 1.88, doesn't sound like much but it's a world of difference !
52.7% at 1.88 is losing long term, 52.7% at 1.98 is winning long term !

[Rashin]

Yes Alien, the hard part for NBA is that you dont actually get 2.00+ like in AH for soccer.
I will use odds from my local bookie which obviously sux, but well since it's the only place I bet I'll use the odds there to determine if I can make a good profit. My aim currently is to just get a good hit rate first and if I cant make a profit because of the odds, then I'll think about signing up on Pinnacle.

Brave first pick anyway rashin, minnesota have been really bad lately, I wouldn't touch them with someone else's myself.

After betting so long in Soccer, I know it's best to back a lousy team when they're underestimated, hope i'm right.

[aliensyndm]

If you bet on american sports pinnacle is an absolutely MUST as I have said many times before. Their NBA games are set to -105 and NFL sides are set to -104 and I think MLB is -104 as well.

Remember if you are backing at crap odds you could be turning what could be long term winning into long term losing because of bad odds.
I would sign up to pinnacle and get on at good odds now.

Quick example...take 100 bets at $100 each. A total of $10 000 staked.
Say you manage to get 53 right out of 100.

If you backed at average odds of 1.88 you get your stake back which is 53 x 100 and then your 88 profit each time hence...

53 x 88 + 5300 = $9964 A loss of $36

Now if you sign up at pinnacle and say manage to back at average odds of 1.952 a la -105 lines you would get back your 53 x 100 plus $95.20 profit each time hence.....

53 x 95.2 + 5300 = $10 345.60 A profit of $345.60


Forget sign up bonuses and the like....getting these much higher odds makes up for any stupid sign up offer a thousand times over.
I mean if you can get 1.98 instead of 1.88, why take the 1.88 ?

Not trying to get on your case or anything man just trying to be helpful !
I know I'll sound like a pinnacle employee but they are easily the best bookmaker I know for basically all aspects. 24/7 customer service - e mail them at any time and you get a reply back usually within 10 minutes. Nowhere else I know of does things that quick.
Also withdrawls go through very fast indeed, even had money in my account the next day a couple of times when withdrawing at night, in account literally about 18 hours later.

If you are gonna be doing alot of NBA betting get on pinnacle. Not only better prices but better lines as well and that extra half point can be so critical sometimes !

[Rashin]

Thanks for the advice alien. I understand odds is very crucial in betting, a 0.05 odds difference does make a difference in the long run, but then again this is just a test, not real money, I will definitely sign up to Pinnacle if I can make NBA one of the good sports to bet on.
I dont want to lie to myself by posting great odds that I didnt take currently.

[Rashin]

LA Clippers 95-87 Minnesota Timberwolves(+7.5) 2@1.88 $100

I lost by 1/2 point , somehow I feel it wasnt a clean game

Bank : $4900
WLD : 0-1-0
Profit : -$100

[Sipu]

Great to see you in the NBA too Rashin!

Very hard luck today, the line opened at 8.5, then went to 8 (which I got) and then finally 7.5. Most of the time these small changes doesnt matter but sometimes they fuck you up . No worries, NBA is full of ups and downs and there is always the next day's games to look forward to.

[Kiko]

Welcome to the delights of the NBA Rashin

I ended up taking -8.5 Clippers aswell so i was pretty pissed aswell

[Rashin]

#2-3
Memphis Grizzlies v Boston Celtics(+6) 2@1.90
Sacramento Kings(-6.5) v LA Lakers 1@1.96

[Rashin]

Memphis Grizzlies 93-76 Boston Celtics(+6) 2@1.90
Sacramento Kings(-6.5) 114-98 LA Lakers 1@1.96

Well it's good to start winning, hope it continues.

Bank : $4896
WLD : 1-2-0
Profit : -$104

[Rashin]

#4-6
Washington Wizards v Charlotte Bobcats(+9.5) 2@1.94
New York Knicks v Atlanta Hawks(+3) 2@1.94
Houston Rockets v Dallas Mavericks(-4) 2@1.94

[Rashin]

#7
Phoenix Suns(-5.5) v LA Clippers 1@1.98

[Grga]

I have a little advice for you Rashin.Don't bet on many games during the same night.I suggest up to 3 matches max.

[Rashin]

Originally Posted by Grga

I have a little advice for you Rashin.Don't bet on many games during the same night.I suggest up to 3 matches max.

Thanks for the advice Grga, just that there is this many good games today which I had to take, I analyse the matches early with the opening handicaps and see which ones go my way, if the handicap gets better compared to the opening ones and the odds are good, I take it.