Sure Bets ( or Arbs)

[lov2raise]

Hey guys, i have a doubt about arbitrage betting for a while now.
Lets say we find a tennis sure bet with odds of 1.5 and 3.2 . Now, if we want a total wager of $100 the arb calculator tells me to bet $68 on the odd of 1.5 and to bet $31.91 on the 3.2 odd, making a profit of $2.1 whatever the result.

Now, would it really make a difference, long term speaking, if instead of betting $68 and $31.91, i would bet, lets say, $80 on the first one and $20 on the second? The total bet is still $100, so i was wondering if anyone can tell me if long term my winnings would still be on average $2.1 per bet?

Ths in advance and GL,
lov2raise

[ONEDUNME]

Is this supposed to be a serious question, or some preamble to future spam?

Obviously, (and I don't think I can quite stress the use of the word "obviously" enough) if you use the second method, staking 20 on the 3.2 bet and it wins, then your return is 64, which means you've lost 34.

So the answer to your question is ......No

[TheLayKing]

Originally Posted by lov2raise

Hey guys, i have a doubt about arbitrage betting for a while now.
Lets say we find a tennis sure bet with odds of 1.5 and 3.2 . Now, if we want a total wager of $100 the arb calculator tells me to bet $68 on the odd of 1.5 and to bet $31.91 on the 3.2 odd, making a profit of $2.1 whatever the result.

Now, would it really make a difference, long term speaking, if instead of betting $68 and $31.91, i would bet, lets say, $80 on the first one and $20 on the second? The total bet is still $100, so i was wondering if anyone can tell me if long term my winnings would still be on average $2.1 per bet?

Ths in advance and GL,
lov2raise

You winnings depends on the bet you would take.What i mean is that your odds will never always be 1.5 & 3.2

Also if my brain is working right your way would lose money doing it your way.

£80 x 1.5 = £120
£20 x 3.5 = £64
Wheres the profit?

The Arb Calculator is designed for this purpose and i doubt you will better it. Long or short term.
Your Example was:-
£68.09 x 1.5 = £102.13
£31.91 x 3.2 = £102.11
Profit of £2.11 - £2.14 Yield would be 2.11- 2.14 as well

If you are thinking along the lines of the Bookmaker catching on. Then just round up your stakes to the nearest £1.

So it would be

£69 x 1.5 = £103.50 (Profit £2.50)
£32 x 3.2 = £102.40 (Profit £1.40)


Hope that helps.

[lov2raise]

Originally Posted by TheLayKing

You winnings depends on the bet you would take.What i mean is that your odds will never always be 1.5 & 3.2

Also if my brain is working right your way would lose money doing it your way.

£80 x 1.5 = £120
£20 x 3.5 = £64
Wheres the profit?

The Arb Calculator is designed for this purpose and i doubt you will better it. Long or short term.
Your Example was:-
£68.09 x 1.5 = £102.13
£31.91 x 3.2 = £102.11
Profit of £2.11 - £2.14 Yield would be 2.11- 2.14 as well

If you are thinking along the lines of the Bookmaker catching on. Then just round up your stakes to the nearest £1.

So it would be

£69 x 1.5 = £103.50 (Profit £2.50)
£32 x 3.2 = £102.40 (Profit £1.40)


Hope that helps.

First of all thank you for replying to my post,

I understand that the calculator has the job to tell us how much to bet in each case in order for the return to be positive in both events. But as you can say "wheres the profit?" when u win your $20 bet on 3.2, you can also say "i had $100 initially, and now i have $120!" if you win the $80 stake on 1.5, which is 20% profit on your bet!

I realize that, by betting different ammounts in each bet, im allowing myself to win a lot more, or lose a lot more, but my doubt is if after a large ammount of bets my expectation would still be to win the $2.14 on each bet...

I dont know if i explained myself correctly, sorry if my english isnt the greatest!

[TheLayKing]

Originally Posted by lov2raise

First of all thank you for replying to my post,

I understand that the calculator has the job to tell us how much to bet in each case in order for the return to be positive in both events. But as you can say "wheres the profit?" when u win your $20 bet on 3.2, you can also say "i had $100 initially, and now i have $120!" if you win the $80 stake on 1.5, which is 20% profit on your bet!

I realize that, by betting different ammounts in each bet, im allowing myself to win a lot more, or lose a lot more, but my doubt is if after a large ammount of bets my expectation would still be to win the $2.14 on each bet...

I dont know if i explained myself correctly, sorry if my english isnt the greatest!

Your maths is not the greatest either.

Your example will make you a loss long term.
Arb bets are there so you secure a profit no matter what the outcome.

£20 x 3.2 is only £64. so thats a loss mate. (loss of £36)

Try it if you dont believe me.

Stick with the PROPER tools designed for the job.

[ONEDUNME]

which is what I said in the first reply. The example given isn't arbing at all, it's just plain gambling. What baffles me is that the guy says he's been doing it for years and yet can't seem to grasp this basic fact.

[TheLayKing]

Originally Posted by ONEDUNME

which is what I said in the first reply. The example given isn't arbing at all, it's just plain gambling. What baffles me is that the guy says he's been doing it for years and yet can't seem to grasp this basic fact.

yeah.
Thats why i said you wont beat those calculators.

Oh well let him get on with it.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by TheLayKing

Your maths is not the greatest either.

Your example will make you a loss long term.
Arb bets are there so you secure a profit no matter what the outcome.

£20 x 3.2 is only £64. so thats a loss mate. (loss of £36)

He knows that, hence the comment " But as you can say "wheres the profit?" when u win your $20 bet on 3.2". What he's asking is whether in the long term he could still expect to make an average of 2.1 per bet if instead of arbing, he ups the stake on one side and reduces it on the other.

Doesn't make the question any more sensible, but there's nothing wrong with his maths.

[lov2raise]

Ok, you guys are completly missing my point i think.

This is the last example i will give, in hope that you will see the light.

You want to bet $100 on a coin toss, which the odds for heads and tails are 50/50.
So, as you may say, you obviously bet $50 on heads and $50 on tails.
Doesnt matter what happens, you know you will not win any money, but you will not lose as well. This is what the calculator would tell me to do, right?

Now, what im saying is long term IT DOESNT MATTER if i bet $98 on heads and only $2 on tails, because out of lets say 1000 i would bet 50% of the time $98 and other 50% of the time i would bet $2.

In the 50% of the time i bet $98, i will lose 25% of the time, and i will win 25% of the time which is a total of...? Zero, exactly.

In the other 50% of the time i bet $2, i will lose 25% of the time, and i will win 25% of the time which is a total of.................. Zero, again.

Since my expected value is zero on my bet, it doesnt really matter how much i bet on heads or tails. I KNOW I WILL BE EVEN LONG TERM!

This is the same reason why you cant beat roulette, not even with a system that fluctuates your bets because you know that in the long run you can expect to lose 2.7% of your bet.

Main point being: You can argue that the odds that bookmakers display does not correspond to the real probability of the event occuring. Because if it was like in the roulette wheel, where you know you have a 1 in 37 chance of winning your bet on a number, the way you want to bet your $$ wouldnt really matter.

[ONEDUNME]

You've just answered your own question really. the odds that u get do not reflect the actual odds which means that nobody in the world can tell you whether you would make a profit or q loss in the long run.

It still begs the question of why you would title this thread about arbs and then ask a question about not arbing.

All you're really asking is, if I bet on odds o 3.2, will I make a profit or not.

[lov2raise]

Originally Posted by rcgills

He knows that, hence the comment " But as you can say "wheres the profit?" when u win your $20 bet on 3.2". What he's asking is whether in the long term he could still expect to make an average of 2.1 per bet if instead of arbing, he ups the stake on one side and reduces it on the other.

Doesn't make the question any more sensible, but there's nothing wrong with his maths.

Thank you, sir. They did not understand what i was trying to say, so they just assume im wrong and im a donk because dont necesseraly bet what the calculator tells me to bet etc etc. What i think will happen by betting more on one side than the other is increase the variance, but that doesnt necesseraly mean that i will lose money if i keep doing it bet after bet.

GL with your bets

[TheLayKing]

Originally Posted by rcgills

He knows that, hence the comment " But as you can say "wheres the profit?" when u win your $20 bet on 3.2". What he's asking is whether in the long term he could still expect to make an average of 2.1 per bet if instead of arbing, he ups the stake on one side and reduces it on the other.

Doesn't make the question any more sensible, but there's nothing wrong with his maths.

Ahh i see. Sorry about that. i read it wrong.

Well in that case as OD said there is no way to tell long term. The profit depends on the odds that you take , and this will affect your profit ot loss long term.

IMO there is no way to know, but please correct me if i am wrong.

[ONEDUNME]

Originally Posted by lov2raise

Thank you, sir. They did not understand what i was trying to say, so they just assume im wrong and im a donk because dont necesseraly bet what the calculator tells me to bet etc etc....... ts

If you're using an arb calculator to work out what to bet, and then totally ignoring it, then yes- you are a Donk. Why are you using the thing in the first place. I you have an opinion on what the winner will be, just bet on it.

[lov2raise]

Originally Posted by ONEDUNME

If you're using an arb calculator to work out what to bet, and then totally ignoring it, then yes- you are a Donk. Why are you using the thing in the first place. I you have an opinion on what the winner will be, just bet on it.

Wow.. normally i wouldnt even bother trying to explain something to a guy that wont understand what im about to say, but ill say it anyway:

I use the calculator to know what % i can expect to win on my total stake.

And no, most of the time i DO NOT have a formed opinion on who will win a match, i just bet if the odds given are >100%.

Seems to me like your one of those guys that reads the 1st and last sentences and then, of course, doesnt understand sh** of what people say so just starts whinning about it.

Please, if you have stresses in your life try not to bring them to this forum, punch a kid if that makes you feel better... All your comments tell me you either didnt understand what i write or you simply skip lines in order to read it quicker.. either way, i dont really care

[ONEDUNME]

Originally Posted by lov2raise

.. either way, i dont really care

That makes two of us then.


Next time you start a thread, try a title than actually bears some connection to what you're going to talk about. You're not talking about arbing at all are you?

Oh, and if you could try and make your posts make a bit of sense as well, that would be nice.