My World Cup campaign thread

[ONEDUNME]

My antepost bets are already on for the win market but I thought I'd keep track of my group and match bets in another thread. 100 points is my absolute maximum to spend througout the comp'. Once it's gone it's gone.

Sod it - I've decided to add my outright bets as well, as I may be "hedging" throughout the comp' by backing or laying according to my long-term profit or loss.

England -100 pts
Spain +42.9 pts
Brazil +12.3 pts
Argentina +71.8pts
Portugal +36.2pts
Any other -15pts

All the above is with betfair. In addition, I have two "saver" bets on England, with chances to get my money back with special offers.

Bet365 5pts on England to win at 13/2 (money back if they go out on penalties)
Stan James 5pts on England to win at 13/2 (money back-in free bet-if Spain win)

All of which, reduces my liability on England to 35 pts but I will be laying them and/or backing their opponents as the competition goes on.


Anyway,

Bet 1. Serbia to win Group D. For reasons given in the relevant group thread and previous discussion about what shit value is represented by backing the favourites in each group. 2pts at 10/3 with William Hill.

[ONEDUNME]

Bet 2. Group A, Uraguay to qualify 30pts to make 26.28 on betfair.

Uraguay may not have appeared to be impressive in their first game against France but they played with 9 men behind the ball for most of the match and I think we'll see a different team in the next two games now that they've seen off what was supposed to be the strongest team in the group.

We've seen South Africa and Mexico. Are they any good? Are they fuck. I was going to back them to win their next game but they only have to win one of the next two, so 5/6 ish is a cracking investment instead.

[ONEDUNME]

I'll copy and past my post from another thread

I don't know much about Chile but given what I've read about the relative merits of them and Honduras, and the fact that they are quite an attacking force facing a mediocre defence, the price of 2.7 (betfair)for over 2 goals looks very attractive.

I know the backers of under 2.5 goals will be boosted by the lack of goals so far but this price is too good to pass up.

Price is now actually 2.72 to I'm gonna put 10pts on this to reverse the wc trend of shit games with no goals.

[ONEDUNME]

I've neglected this thread and had a fair few bets more than listed (most of them losers to be honest). I've reduced the deficit greatly over the last week after a disastrous start but, of the above, the over 2 goals thread failed, Uraguay have qualified winning the group and I need Ghana and Germany to draw tomorrow and a Serbia victory to put the other bet up.

As far as the outrights go, I'm happy as I am although I could buy back England for one and a half times what I laid it at I really can't see them getting through to the end so I'll let it ride.

Ideally Spain will qualify but, I'll settle for two of my teams in the last eight for a sporting shout

[Kiko]

Yeah your looking pretty healthy now I would say ODM. No outright top goalscorer bets?

Surely on Villa? I would pile in on him again, 7.2 still represents some great value for me.

PS - Chase up them Unibet cnuts!

[ONEDUNME]

Yes I backed Villa, and I think I mentioned in another thread (possibly the Champs League thread somewhere but I can't find it) Messi was available at something stupid like 18 or 20 to 1 and available to lay at just over 13/1 on betfair. I've got a lay to win £30 on betfair and a back with one of the other bookies that I'll desperately start searching for if it looks like it could be a winner which judging by his current scoring form, won't happen.

Fingers crossed that spain even qualify or the Villa bet is down the pan too.

Haven't heard about the payment yet but lets be fair to Unibet, as it's not a hold up on their part but a change of job for someone who links up between us and them.

[ONEDUNME]

Oh - ive also got two losing bets on Frank Lampard's goal minutes. Better go and update that thread

[ONEDUNME]

I really do understand the potential folly of this next bet so there's no need to point out what a fool I am because I already know.

Spain to meet Brazil in the final currently 10/1 with Corals, Laddies and sportingbet. This price is largely down to the fact that they could meet in the next round but there's also a good chance that they won't - in which case, the price will halve.

In addition to this, I'm also backing both to reach the final. It's sort of a saver on this bet but what makes this move a bit mental is that I already have money on both of them anyway so this world cup is either going to be very very good or very very bad.

14pts on Brazil to reach final to return 39.6 points
9 pts on Spain to reach final to return 34.3 pts
2pts both to meet in final to return 22 pts

Total stake 25 pts
max return 95.9 pts = 75.9 pt profit
Brazil only = 14.6 pt profit
Spain only = 9.3 pt profit

The silver cloud to both meeting in the next round would be that I'm guaranteed to have one of my teams in the last eight (Argentina and Portugal being the other two in my stable)

[ONEDUNME]

A good day for me with Spain qualifying and avoiding Brazil's half of the group and Villa scoring in the process. I've made my feelings on England known on this forum and to back them up I've added some more to my lay bet.

Profit and loss now looks like this, orgininal figure to the left and new figure to the right



England -100 pts -168.6
Spain +42.9 pts +54.3
Brazil +12.3 pts +122.9
Argentina +71.8pts +99.7
Portugal +36.2pts +18.1
Any other -15pts

My "any other" is now more specific

Holland -30.7
Germany -49.3
Uraguay-38
Paraguay -26

Now we get to the big ones

USA, Ghana, Mexico, Japan, Korea, Slovakia -70

Chile -130.4

plus the two specials as mentioned previously

Bet365 5pts on England to win at 13/2 (money back if they go out on penalties)
Stan James 5pts on England to win at 13/2 (money back-in free bet-if Spain win)

All of which, reduces my liability on England slightly

[ONEDUNME]

My strategy for these group of matches will be to pick the team that I think will win and then lay the other one over 90 minutes. Potentially costly when I hit the inevitable losers but who cares. I'm also toying with a draw no bet punt on each of my teams as well but I need to have a think about that strategy.

My selections will be

Lay of Korea v Uraguay (now available to lay at 5.1 but I'm sad to say I'm already on at 5.2 to win 3pts or lose 13.2)
I wrote on this site after Uraguay's first game to say that their tactics would be totally different in game two and they would come out and attack. I also asked anyone who would listen to back them to qualify. I'm not going to desert them now.



USA v Ghana
Lay of Ghana at 3 (now 3.15) to win 5pts or lose 10.5. Much as I hate the USA, I've had to sit and admire their spirit, having come back against England and Slovenia and scoring late in their last game, they certainly deserve their place. If team spirit is worth anything, they're the ones to be on.


Germany v England
I'm on a big lay of England to win the tournement so I should really be laying the Germans but I'm not convinced by the English side. If they put in a decent performance and get through thhis round I'll back them against the Argies but I just can't be having them at the moment. Lay of England - against I've got a shit price of 2.82 - now available to lay at 2.78. +10pts or -19.1.


Argentina v Mexico
Again, Argentina are a team carrying some of my dosh so a lay of them to win in 90 mins is the bet for me at 1.55 to win 5pts or lose 2.88

Holland v Slovakia. My initial thoughts were to leave this one alone but Slovakia are capable of creating a shock so, because the price is so low, lay of holland at 5pts for -2.63pts

Brazil v Chile
Increased my stake yesterday in Spain and Brazil (see my world cup thread) and no matter how much my heart says that this is money wasted, my head knows that stranger things have happened and I must at least get something out of a shock result. Lay Brazil +5 -3.

Paraguay v Japan.
I've really enjoyed watching both of these teams and I was wondering when they both quailified, which one the bookies would make favourite as I really couldn't pick one. The bookies have gone with the tried and trusted pedigree and I think Paraguay's qualifying campaign was pretty impressive as well as their start in Africa (though I may be wrong). The Japanese seemed to work exceptionally hard in their last game and I'm not sure that the South Americans won't be fitter and stronger on the day. Got to go with Paraguay which means a lay of Japan at 4.1 5pts for -16.2, although a Japanese win would not be the biggest shock in the world to me.

Spain v Portugal
These were the two teams I backed before the competition started and I should really be pissed off to see them meet in the opening knock out game. The fact is that my main bets are now Spain and Brazil to reach the final (plus wins on them both) and a money on Argentina, so Portugal are very much my fourth string. The lay odds of 4.5 are just too high for me to part with my cash at the moment as Portugal could easily shock them. I'll either lay nearer the time or in running if i get a chance at 4 on betfair to win 5 pts.

This will be the tie of the round I reckon but some crackers to look forward to.

[Punter]

Good stuff ODM and good luck.

I need Paraguay and Uraguay to go a little further then i can start laying some off, i have some i can lay off on Japan too should they get through but either Paraguay or Uraguay in the semi final would almost certainly show me a WC profit.

Of the next lot of games i think Uraguay, USA, England, Argentina, Holland and Brazil will go through, not sure about the other two games.

[ONEDUNME]

Good luck to you too mate. I'm really looking forward to the next round of matches now. I just hope not too many teams come out ultradefesively and spoil it. Italy are out so that's one bunch of boring bastards less to worry about.

Uraguay did it in their first game but the draw has been kind in the fact that their aren't too many defensive types drawn together - or if they are, then one team should fancy themselves the stronger of the two and should go for the win.

Bring it on.

Just noticed that England to win in extra time is 11/1 on betfair. 2pts on that

[Punter]

How about England on Penalties for a change? I'll go look for a price

[Punter]

10/1 Skybet

[ONEDUNME]

Nah, I think if it get's to extra time Capello will be wanting to get it finished. There's enough pressure on any penalty at the world cup but in a shoot out with the Germans the players will have all the extra pressure of all the history and infamy and piss taking and pizza adverts etc etc. If it goes to extra time we'll end up playing most of the second half with three strikers in an effort to get it finished.