Beanie's In Running Golf Bets

[Beanie]

Just a toe in the water for the Players Champs as well...a few that fit the criteria here...

3pts Kim @ 7.2
1pt Stadler @ 110
1pt Goosen @ 50
0.2pts Coceres @ 1000
0.2pts Watney @ 1000
0.2pts Sterne @ 1000

From off the pace I'm not only looking at those that fit the criteria, but also those that are creating enough birdie chances to enable them to put together the -5 or -6 needed to get them into contention, should they keep the bogeys off the card. The 1000s on offer looks a tad generous given that the field is split by only 9 strokes.

So not really players that should play well, but those that could be spectacular.

Sterne, Watney and Coceres all look aggressive enough to do just that - they've all dropped plenty strokes this week, but all 3 have the capability of a low round from off the pace.

Towards the middle, Retief Goosen has been very consistent, not making many mistakes but not quite converting on as many birdie opportunities as he should have. If the putter gets hot today, he's close enough to be in big contention over the final day.

Kevin Stadler is -2 but yesterdays round was a good couple of shots better than that - and the way he saved bogey on 17 after being in the water, and a tough par at 18 shows that I think he can kick on again.

Kim has been in great for a while now - the only question mark is mental fatigue. That aside, he's making the chances, sinking the putts, hitting the greens, and has the mentality to push on from here, something which will be lacking in quite a few of the other names near the top.

[Beanie]

Just a quick one...

0.5pts Illonen @ 36

Off the pace, but looks in the mood and can shoot v. low on his day.

More later.

[Beanie]

Little punt for tomorrow's Welsh Open - not one to go crazy about by any means as these are the players I like to avoid on final days(no big wins in career so bottle will be a big question mark...)

3pts Scott Strange @ 2.38

As I say this would be the biggest win of his career by some distance, so he could quite easily fall apart tomorrow, but today the scoring looked fairly tough and very few of the close runners made up any ground. Strange has a 3 shot lead, and he's played this course very well so far...only a couple of bogies all week. The chasing pack isn't the strongest and so a -1 or -2 could be enough for Strange tomorrow.

Whatever, I was expecting the market to have him near the evens mark which I would have been making a lay of, but to see it near 2.4 is a surprise and I think its a tad too big.

PGA picks tomorrow.

[Beanie]

Strange wins

[Beanie]

Not much time, but a few picks for the PGA Tour later on this afternoon...

5pts Cink @ 2.68
1.5pts Slocum @ 9.20
0.5pts Campbell @ 36
0.2pts Day @ 110
0.1pts Herron @ 600
0.1pts Estes @ 460

[Beanie]

Cink wins

[Beanie]

The Scottish Open looks like exactly that, with a lot of players still in with a shout....the system picks out the following as the good value in the field(not all matched yet):

3.75pts McDowell @ 4.60
2pts Jimenez @ 8.6
0.25pts Jaidee @ 60
0.25pts Lynn @ 75
0.2pts McIlroy @ 90
0.1pts Kingston @ 230
0.1pts Howell @ 900

[Beanie]

And while I'm here, some small plays for the John Deere Classic, but nothing serious...(not all matched again)

Kenny Perry looks a little short, but there's not many that can mount a serious challenge if he gets going. Those I'd give a decent shout to on current form...

0.7pts Clark @ 19.5
0.55pts Campbell @ 24
0.5pts Hayes @ 26
0.1pts Austin @ 110

[Beanie]

McDowell wins the Scottish Open

Update time:

Staked: 207.68pts
Returned: 250.1pts
Yield: 20.4%

[Beanie]

A tentative toe in the water for the Open - there are some strong selections but the wind is due to blow very hard tomorrow, and that could turn the event into a war of attrition, and so I've had to adjust a few selections too to give slightly more bias towards the solid, steady players...but some that will need to be layed again if in contention on the final day(Soren especially!)

2pts KJ Choi @ 7.80
0.75pts Poulter @ 28
0.5pts Appleby @ 34
0.2pts Soren Hansen @ 75
0.1pts Anthony Kim @ 130
0.1pts Leonard @ 170
0.1pts Ross Fisher @ 190

A few other selections just miss out - Harrington a great wind player but price looks a little tight at the moment, Els I expect to mount something of a charge but even at 150 is tricky to take on that far back, and I'd be taking Archer or Shearrard @ 1000+ if Betfair offered higher odds. Anyway, that'll do for now, more tomorrow night.

[Beanie]

Layed the main remaining punts(2.75pts Choi at 5.7, 0.7pts Fisher @ 27, 0.6pts Kim @ 21, 0.4pts Poulter @ 55) for a 0.7pts profit.

[Beanie]

Russian Open:

2pts Sandelin @ 8
2pts Rock @ 8.4
1.2pts Delamontagne @ 14
1pts Larsen @ 15.5
0.4pts Barham @ 50
0.2pts Donaldson @ 95
0.2pts Marshall @ 90
0.3pts Slattery @ 75
0.2pts Tadini @ 120
0.1pts Orr @ 210
0.15pts Bland @ 150

[Beanie]

Some small punts for the Bridgestone...

2pt Vijay @ 4.9
0.8pts Westwood @ 14.5
0.6pts Cink @ 17
0.3pts Goosen @ 36
0.15pts Ogilvy @ 80
0.15pts Karlsson @ 95
0.1pts Immelman @ 150
0.1pts Choi @ 310

[Beanie]

Good day today with Westwood and Vijay joint leaders with Mick...couple of quick trades to finalise position for the final round...

2pts Lay Vijay Singh @ 4.5
4pts Mickelson @ 2.96

So just trading out of green on Vijay, not convinced he can follow through here, and reinvest on Mickelson who looks bang in the mood, leaving a nice result on Mickelson, Westwood, or Goosen winning.

[Beanie]

Quick picks on the Deutsche Bank, where the leaders tee off in a couple of hours...

3.2pts Weir @ 3.20
1.8pts Garcia @ 5.6

I'm amazed I can get evens for covering these two - they fit the system criteria and are playing some stellar golf - in Garcia's case he's been doing it for weeks and weeks.

Vijay has too and he's been a bit of a bogey for the system over the months but these two are the suggested bets so medium stakes on the pair.