Beanie's In Running Golf Bets

[Beanie]

No damage last week as JMS lost in a playoff so the lay came in.

World Champs at Doral this week. I was gonna keep my powder dry, but bad weather last night means that this tourney is being pushed into Monday morning, and I now just think this could get too much for Geoff Ogilvy. He's led since round one, playing almost flawless golf, but having to go for over 4 days trying to sustain a lead with a high quality chasing pack is a big ask for anyone, and even though he has passed the test so far, he's still got all the hard work to do.

From the chasing pack Woods isnt creating enough chances to catch him from so far back, I couldnt take Adam Scott due to his tendency to throw it away when back in contention(as he has done already this week), Storm is a likely contender, but again, he might not have the mental game when hitting the front, Goosen is running out of holes, especially if the leaders birdie number 10 which he could only par, which is also what Furyk did.

So that leaves Vijay - after a poor season so far he is beginning to hit some superb form, and if anyone can put together a winning round its him, particularly after his -9 yesterday. He has played the back 9 better than the other contenders so far this week, and whiile he threw away a tournament when in front not long ago, he should enjoy chasing someone down a lot better. Small play for me.

2pts Vijay Singh @ 4.80

[Beanie]

Not much time...

Spreading things pretty wide today for the golf...

1pt Dredge @ 11.5
0.5pts Edberg @ 44
1pt Lynn @ 16.50
0.5pts Fisher @ 32
0.5pts Luiten @ 36
0.4pts Dinwiddie @ 46
0.4pts Jonzon @ 55
0.2pts Larsen @ 95
0.5pts Noren @ 36
0.2pts Martin @ 100

Basically, this is all about opposing Millar, Hedblom and Levet who currently top the leaderboard. Will need more trading after this round tho so I'll get something up tonight/tomorrow morning to hopefully close this one out.

[Beanie]

For the PGA...

2pts Watney @ 12.00
0.5pts Armour III @ 36
0.5pts Davis @ 38

Again, pre 4th round punting to be done too.

[Beanie]

Adding

2pts Austin @ 6.60
2pts Merrick @ 6.20
1pt Harrington @ 10
0.5pts Senden @ 22

[Beanie]

2 up with 2 to play, and yet another playoff loss...stinking run at the moment and I'll be going back to the drawing board this week to find out why the system ran so hot at the start and why its running so cold now.

[Beanie]

Ok well the Estoril Open looks like a tricky little course - plenty easy birdies but also a few testers where its easy to go +2 or +3 and blow your chances.

Bourdy has a commanding lead at the moment, but I'm willing to oppose him from here - I dont think there is enough evidence to suggest he can deal with this situation too well, and there is enough quality in the chasing pack and enough low scores possible to say that he should be hunted down fairly quickly.

So the punts:

2pts Castano @ 6.20
1.5pts Levet @ 7.20
0.75pts Dyson @ 16
0.65pts Fisher @ 17.5
0.35pts Webster @ 29
0.25pts Martin @ 46
0.1pts Edberg @ 260
0.1pts Erlandsson 140
0.1pts Paddison @ 510
0.1pts Baker @ 320

All have shown the ability to shoot low this week, which is important where the winner is gonna have to reach around -17 I would think, and also the ability to bounce back after a bogey or two, which again, on this tricky little course, will be key as all will stumble at some point.

More before round 4.

[mrmuzeman]

Levet seems to be getting back to form lately after a couple of rough years suffering from vertigo. Could be one to look out for if hes a big price at the British Open

[Beanie]

Aye theres something in the Evian just now Muze, all the Frenchies are on fire...

Some from the PGA...3 leaders who I think are good for one more solid round, and some longer shots who have shown promise...

1.5pts Wagner @ 5.2
0.75pts Goggin @ 9.2
0.75pts Campbell @ 10
0.1pts Quinney @ 120
0.1pts Green @ 380
0.2pts Crane @ 60
0.25pts Garrigus @ 48
0.1pts Estes @ 160

[Beanie]

Wagner has admitted himself that he is very nervous about today - winner gets a spot in the Masters, so he looks far to short even though leading. Campbell has been there and done it before, and looks the pick.

Lay Wagner @ 3.9 - to win 3 points.
3pts Campbell @ 2.70

[Beanie]

Pretty poor day again for the system - Wagner winning and Bourdy holding on even with a huge wobble. Not great before the Masters, not great at all :/

[Beanie]

Ok, back refreshed, and looking to the Volvo Open in China.

System selection says to oppose the top two on the leaderboard in Finch and Vera - both looked wobbly when closing out their rounds at the summit today and big wobbles are possible tomorrow.

There's a few players that look useful to oppose them with too:

4pts McGrane @ 5.50
2pts Brier @ 11.50
3pts Wilson @ 7.60
1pt Liang @ 22
1pt Knutzon @ 46
0.4pts Walker @ 150
0.2pts Kang Chun @ 300

The bigger bets of Brier, McGrane and Wilson are on steady players who look comfortable on this tricky course and should prosper tomorrow in what could be tricky conditions(storms forecast.) McGrane in particular is very good in adverse conditions.

Liang is the local man and will have plenty support tomorrow - he's been mixing it with the best recently and will surely build on what was a solid round today.

Knutzon is the big bet in relation to the odds - he's shown brilliant bouncebackability this week - and on a tricky day tomorrow, the way the field responds to bogies will be key, and he looks ideally setup to go well.

[FC Basher]

for you Beanie,your holding the aces here with McGrane 3 shots clear and Wilson T2 3 back.

[Beanie]

Cheers Bash - McGrane wins by 9

In the end the storms came and as expected he was the only one that was anywhere near coping.

[Snodser]

Well done beanie, he did the buisness . I hopped on after your views after the 2nd round.

The change from foundation to hair gel suits you, a winning combination

[Beanie]

Cheers Snod - will have a small play on the Verizon this afternoon too:

3pts Weekley @ 1.58

Boo is the defending champ here and goes into the final round 3 clear of Kim and 5 clear+ of the rest. Kim looked very shaky yesterday, and being in the final group today will do him no favours, and I cant see him getting past Boo today, who knows this course inside out. If thats true then someone is gonna have to post a -7/-8 from off the pace to put big pressure on Boo, and hope the big man has a wobble.

Thats the big question, but he's playing fairly flawlessly at the moment, was a little unlucky with his dropped shot yesterday, and his drive is big enough to guarantee another good number of biirdie chances today.

He's a slightly different beast in golfing terms - read any interview and you'll find out why. As a result I think he might deal with the pressure of leading a little better than others.

Nothing to go mad on, but I think Boo wins this more than 2 outta 3 times from here.