In search for Holy Grail

[Grga]

One of our mods said that we need someone who will deal with probablity analysis,systems,... And I definetly need a new challange.I'm bored in NHL and NBA threads.Noone seems interested and sometimes I feel like I'm talking to myself.So my new job here on TDP is to examine all sort of betting and money managment systems.I'll try to find a perfect system that will bring cash to all of you lazy bastards.

I've spent some time reading all post in Systems and Strategy and realized that almoust all threads are abandoned after 30-50 posts and only few of them are worth reading.

I started betting on sports about 8 years ago. It was for entertainment first but soon I've realised that in order to beat the bookie you need some help.If you rely only on research and if you waste too much time on sports and leagues that you don't know you will eventually lose some money.After about six months of betting I've decided to write down all of my bets.And then I've realised that I'm losing money although I was confident that I'm succesful punter.My biggest problem was dealing with losses.I used to get very angry when I lost and tried to chase them.Big mistake.Sometimes I managed to get the money back but usually I lost even more.But many years of hard work, painful lessons taken and mistakes paid for with hard earned money made me like this.
All of my expirience is written in my big notebook.All the systems I've tried,all money managment I've done over the years.

Many of you know that I rarely post picks outside other sports section.The reason is not because I don't follow football it's because it's because I've learned over the years that NHL,NBA and NFL are more profitable.
Here is one example from NHL:
The game Buffalo-Philadelphia.Baffalo is the best team in NHL,and Philadelphia is the worst team in league.Odds for Buffalo win were around 1.50.Compare that with 1.15 odd for Man Utd win in Man Utd-Sheffield United game and you will see what I'm talking about.
On the other side NBA and NFL games are good for betting because there is no draw.

Let's get back to the main topic.I'll test all sorts of systems in order to find the best for betting in all sports.

[Grga]

My research will be in money managment systems.
There are many staking strategies but all of them can be divided in 4 groups:
1.fixed staking;
2.variable staking;
3.percentage staking;
4.progresive staking.

For fixed, or level, staking, every bet placed is assigned the same stake size, regardless of the betting odds. Many punters see weaknesses with level staking and prefer to vary the size of their bets according to various criteria, including their strength and their odds. A bettor, for example, may choose to standardise the amount he wins for every successful bet. Where all the odds are the same, this will amount to level staking. Where the odds differ, the stake sizes will vary. This strategy is also called the fixed profits staking plan.Percentage (bank) staking, like level staking, standardises the size of the stake, but as a percentage of the size of the current betting bank at the time the bet is placed, rather than as a fixed number of points proportional to the initial bankroll.Progressive staking involves increasing or decreasing the stake size after each bet, according to whether it won or lost, with a view to recovering earlier losses or enhancing gains whilst on a winning run.

So what to choose?
The most suitable staking strategy for a punter will depend extensively on his attitude to profit making and risk taking. A short-term punter may prefer to stake large and risk more in an attempt to make a quick and sizeable profit. On the other side long-term fixed odds punter will prefer to employ more a more conservative staking strategy, where staying in the game is more important than making fast money.

[MickeyPaul]

Excellent stuff, Grga. I'll be following with interest.

I'll try to find a perfect system that will bring cash to all of you lazy bastards.

[munkimafia]

This should make a fascinating read Grga.
I've always believed that with regards to staking , while it is possible to increase profits/decrease losses by using a plan , if your selection method doesn't produce a profit to level stakes then it is ultimately likely to fail..
I think peoples expectations of what a system should produce in terms of profit are very often unrealistic.Personally if I could make a 6% profit on turnover I'd be very satisfied.
Hope you don't mind but as you are going to make us all a fortune I've emailed my boss and told him to stick his lousy job up his arse.I trust the selection method will be in place this afternoon ?

[Grga]

Originally Posted by munkimafia

Hope you don't mind but as you are going to make us all a fortune I've emailed my boss and told him to stick his lousy job up his arse.I trust the selection method will be in place this afternoon ?

Don't give up your job munkimafia. There is no system that will make you rich.I still haven't found the "PERFECT SYSTEM".
For start I'll do comparision of 5-6 most common money managment systems.

[Grga]

Here are the first 5 money managment systems that I'll examine:

1.fixed stakes
Every bet is assigned the same stake size, regardless of the betting odds.

2.fixed profit
Here you standardise the amount he wins for every successful bet.The stake sizes will vary depending on odds.

3.percentage staking
You use percentage of the current betting bank at the time for determining the stake of your bet.

4.martingale

Martingale is probably the best known system for money management. Originally designed for use in casinos, this system has nothing to do with picking objects. Martingale is a system which helps you control your stakes. With Martingale, you can be a lousy bettor, but still win money. Please not that Martingale is a system with very high risk of going broke.
The principle of the Martingale system is as follows:

If you lose, you double your stakes, and if you win, you start all over on your starting stake. This means that you eventually will be ensured a profit. Follow this example: You've found a game with odds 2.0 for home victory. You bet 100$, but you lose, as the game ends in a draw. Next time you bet 200$ on a game with odds 2.0. If you lose again, you must bet 400$ on a game with odds=2.0. If you win this time, you've placed a total stake of 100+200+400 =700$, and you've won 100$ for your efforts. The 100$ payoff is equal to what you would've won on your first bet.

Fantastic system, or what ?
Certainly, if you had unlimited funds available. Or if the bookie would drop his maximum bet limit. Or if you have the sufficient cool when you hit a long losing run. Remember, with odds=2.0, you will have to wager 32 times your original stake if you lose 5 times in a row. And losing 5 times in a row is not too difficult with odds 2.0..... And even if you have lost 5 times in a row, you have no greater chance of winning the sixth time. Too many people think they'll have to win soon when they've lost many in a row. The fact is that the chances for a win is just as big (or small if you like) as when you started the betting sequence. Martingale is in other words a very dangerous system, and should be used by punters with large funds and no nerves. In my opinion, Martingale is not a suitable money management system for the average punter due to it's heavy level of progression

5.row of numbers

The German word for this system is "Die Abstreichmetode". This is also a system well known from casinos, and has a lot in common with Martingale (recovering from losses by increasing stakes). But Row of numbers is not as tough as Martingale though. While Martingale can quickly give you your stakes back including a profit, Row of numbers does not repay your losses that quick, but it does not lead to big stakes either (which Martingale does).
Row of numbers gives you more flexibility compared to Martingale because you can adjust your stakes in a more suitable way. The disadvantage is that this system requires more effort from you, as you have to make a row of numbers on a piece of paper and add numbers when you lose, and remove numbers when you win. You need to have better control with your betting, so to say.
Let's have a look at the system:

First decide how much you want to win. E.g 1000 $. Then you have to figure out how long it's going to take to reach your goal. This is the tricky part, because when you win you must remove the first and last number in the row, but when you lose you must add a number to the row.
As a result of this, you must try to decide an average probability for a win, given a fixed odds. If you want to play on games with an average odds of 2.0, set your probability to 40% (or thereabouts). It's better to underestimate rather than overestimate your abilities. If you overestimate your ability, you will have to make up for it by increasing your stakes, and increasing the stakes can easily become rather unpleasant if you hit a losing streak.
If we imagine the 1000$ split into 20 50$ wins, we can calculate how long you will have to bet in order to get a 1000$ total win, given the 40% chance of winning with odds=2.0 (a 50% chance means you're betting even with the bookmaker).
With a 40% chance of predicting the 2.0 object correctly, you will lose 60% of the picks. Thus you lose 50% more often than you win (60/40). In the case of winning, you get to remove 2 numbers on the list (the first and last number). When you lose you must add a number at the end of the list. If we draw this row of numbers, it would look like this:
50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Determining your first stake:
As explained above, the first and last number will be removed if you win. 50+50=100. In order to win 100$, you must use a stake which will give you 100$ in net profit. If the odds given is 2.0, you'll have to bet 100$. If the odds is 1.50 you must bet 200$. If the odds is 1.75 you must bet 133,33$. The method of determining the stake is:

Net winning -------------- odds - 1 The stakes for your forthcoming bets can be calculated in the same way. If the first bet is 125$ at odds 1.8, and you lose this bet, you must add 125 at the end of the list. The next bet will then be the first and last number in the row, which now is 50+125, divided by (odds-1).

50+125 -------------- odds - 1You must ofcourse substitute "odds" with the actual odds offered on your object.
If you win, you must remove the first and last number in the row, and then start fresh with 50+50/(odds-1) again.

[Grga]

Here is the betting plan.
All 5 systems will have the same starting bank:100 pts.
- For fixed stakes system all bets will be placed with the same stake:1pt
- For fixed profit system the stake will be determined in order to win 1pt.
- For percentage staking the stake will be 1% of current bank.
-For martingale the initial stake is 1 pt.(1 2 4 8 16 32 64 ...)
- For row of numbers I'll use this row:
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

As you can see all systems will start at the same point.I think that 100 bets will be enough to see what each system can do.

[Grga]

Pick no 1:
Liberec-Jablonec 1 1.67 @ Coral

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fixed stakes system
stake:1 pt
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fixed profit system
stake:1.54 pts
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Percentage Staking system
stake (1%)= 1pt
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Martingale
stake:1 pt
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Row of numbers
stake:1.54 pts

[Grga]

Liberec-Jablonec 3-1
Stats update: 1W 0L
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fixed stakes system
Bank:100.65
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fixed profit system
Bank:101
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Percentage Staking system
Bank:100.65
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Martingale
Bank:100.65
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Row of numbers
Bank:101
row: 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

[Grga]

Pick no 2:
Hartlepool-Notts County 1 @ 1.70

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fixed stakes system
stake:1 pt
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fixed profit system
stake:1.43 pts
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Percentage Staking system
stake (1%)= 1.0065 pts
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Martingale
stake:1 pt
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Row of numbers
stake:1.43 pts

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

WOOOOOOOOOOSH!

All this stats, fixed profit, fixed stake, fixed shite all goes right over my head.

Good luck none the less

[MickeyPaul]

You sound like a Sun reader Kiko.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Originally Posted by MickeyPaul

You sound like a Sun reader Kiko.

FUCK OFF YOU BLACK BASTARD

[Grga]

Originally Posted by Kiko

FUCK OFF YOU BLACK BASTARD

Mickey is black?I always thought you look like this

[Grga]

If you have any questions Kiko feel free to ask.